Grid-X NFL 2008 Win Totals (Part 2: NFC North & South)

NFC North

Vegas Line: PACKERS projected to win 8 games (-135 Over/ +105 Under)
Last year: 13-3
07 Problems: Green Bay’s 07 season ended on an interception in the NFC championship game, which was further than most people had ever imagined they would reach. There were no major problems last year, it was this offseason the Packers have had their headaches. Brett Favre couldn’t have been a bigger distraction to training camp. I bet there are people in GB that are happy he’s gone, so now they can move forward instead of answering questions everyday regarding Favre.
Key Losses: some guy named Favre?
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Jody Nelson (draft)
Forecast: A.Rodgers is in the spot light week 1, playing at home for Monday Night Football. Aside from the major QB change, not much has changed in Green Bay; this team will be a year older and more prepared than the young kids that went deep into the playoffs in 07. I like Aaron Rodgers, he’s been watching and learning for a few years now, and finally gets his chance to play. The Packer schedule is strong, but probably a little easier than last year. I think the week 1 match up will be huge for A.Rodgers confidence, but either way I see a wildcard in store for GB.
Big wins in 07: both wins over MIN (34-0 & 23-16)
Prediction: 9-10 wins

Vegas Line: VIKINGS projected to win 9 games (-120 Over/ -120 Under)
Last year: 8-8
07 Problems: Talk about owning the run; the Vikings were first in rushing yards per game on offense, and first in stopping the run on defense. The passing game is a different story…28th in passing offense and last in passing defense. The Vikings went out and got WR B.Berrian in the offseason to help stretch the field. Although some point the finger at QB T.Jackson, we believe that this year should be a better and more promising season for Tarvaris Jackson.
Key Losses: SS Dwight Smith
Offseason Acquisitions: SS Tyrell Johnson (draft), Jared Allen (trade) WR Bernard Berrian, FB Thomas Tapeh
Forecast: Go for gold! Minnesota fans want to buy playoff tickets, and I think the Vikings are going to let them. The key is stopping the pass; if J.Allen can add pressure to opposing QB’s and even put up half of what he had in KC, the passing defense shouldn’t be ripped apart.  
Big wins in 07: beating SD (35-17) and NYG (41-17)
Prediction: 11 wins

 Vegas Line: LIONS projected to win 6.5 games (-160 Over/ +120 Under)
Last year: 7-9
07 Problems: Kitna said 10 wins right?…didn’t he? Because as of week 9, the Lions were 6-2, and 10 wins seemed easy. But with only 1 win in their last 8 games, Kitna’s prediction just made the Lions finish a great example for Webster’s Dictionary under “choke”. There is really only one problem with the Lions, and his name is Matt Millen. Blown draft picks are a major key to this team’s problems. Although the Lions 08 draft was great, they cleaned house this offseason by firing OC Mike Martz and trading away big man Shawn Rodgers. Expect a typical Detroit Lions rollercoaster season.
Key Losses: DT Shawn Rodgers, LB Boss Bailey, RB Kevin Jones.
Offseason Acquisitions: CB Leigh Bodden (FA), CB Brian Kelly (FA), OT Gosder Cherilus (draft), RB Kevin Smith (draft)
Forecast: I have no idea what bookies are thinking with -160 at 6.5 games. If you can find a higher paying Under, I would definitely place that bet. The Lions had a good season but are right back into re-building mode. I predict the same type of season: strong start and terrible finish. Until M.Millen is gone, Detroit fans might as well cheer for the Red Wings or Tigers.
Big wins in 07: beating MIN (20-7)
Prediction: 5-6 wins

Vegas Line: BEARS projected to win 8 games (+110 Over/ -150 Under)
Last year: 7-9
07 Problems: The Bears were in every game they played, but a lack of offense was a major problem. Ranking 30th in rushing yards per game, and having no real leader at QB, this team was not the NFC Champions they were just a couple of years ago. Now with Berrian and Benson gone, this team looks to be in rebuilding mode.
Key Losses: WR B.Berrian, OT F.Miller, WR M.Muhammad
Offseason Acquisitions: none
Forecast: The Bears are rebuilding in my opinion, and need to look to QB Kyle Orton to lead the team. Chicago is hoping Matt Forte will be the answer, but the in-and-out back field doesn’t work. They should never have traded away Thomas Jones to the NY Jets. Under at -150 is not the best deal, but there’s no way the Bears are going to have a winning season (sorry Bears fans).
Big wins in 07: beating GB twice (27-20 & 35-7)
Prediction: 5 wins

NFC South

Vegas Line: SAINTS projected to win 8.5 games (-170 Over/ +130 Under)
Last year: 7-9
07 Problems: A terrible start; the Saints acted like it was still preseason for the month of September. New Orleans started 0-4, and seemed demoralized when D.McAllister went down. Aside from the problems with the running game, the holes in the passing defense and frequent turnovers were annoying habits that seemed to be in every game.
Key Losses: C Jeff Faine
Offseason Acquisitions: LB J.Vilma (trade) S.Ellis (draft) J.Shockey (trade)
Forecast: There’s no doubt the Saints want to bounce back to playoff form, but the pass defense was not addressed. The Saints will probably be in shoot outs each week, but there’s no doubt that 8.5 games is doable. Bookies are really making you earn it by having to put up -170, but you need to spend money to make money.
Big wins in 07: beating JAC (41-24)
Prediction: 10-11 wins
Vegas Line: BUCCANEERS projected to win 8.5 games (-120 Over/ -120 Under)
Last year: 9-7
07 Problems: 3 road wins to start the season, as well as trying to replace RB C.Williams after his knee injury. Earnest Graham has emerged as the starting RB for now, but who is the starting QB? J.Gruden has a mess to sort through, which was a problem last year, and still is with only a few weeks to go before the start of the season.
Key Losses: C J.Wade (FA)
Offseason Acquisitions: C Jeff Faine (FA) CB E.Wilson (FA), RB W.Dunn (FA), A.Talib (draft)
Forecast: The Bucs did a great job replacing all of the positions they lost in free agency. Taking Aquib Talib in the first round was a great pick, but a questionable one with all of the problems they have on offense. -120 Over is a great deal and should be a solid bet. If Tampa could hurry up and announce their starting QB, it would make it easier for me to recommend taking that bet.
Big wins in 07: beating NO twice (31-14 & 27-24)
Prediction:  9 wins

Vegas Line: PANTHERS projected to win 7.5 games (-170 Over/ +130 Under)
Last year: 7-9
07 Problems: J.Delhomme is more valuable than people had thought. When Jake went down with his elbow injury, people didn’t freak out, thinking that anyone could throw the Steve Smith screen play…but they were wrong. With the ugly play at QB and only 2 home wins (whatever happen to home field advantage?), the Panthers managed to win only 7 games. Experts (not us) had predicted this team to go deep into the playoffs, and fans were left feeling ripped off.
Key Losses: OG M.Wahle (FA), RB D.Foster (FA), SS D.Cooper (FA), DT M.Rucker (retired), DT M.Jenkins (FA)
Offseason Acquisitions:) WR M.Muhammed (FA), OT J.Otah (draft), RB J.Stewart (draft), SS T.Holt (FA), WR DJ Hackett (FA), CB R.Colclough (FA), DE T.Brayton (FA)
Forecast: A busy offseason with lots of players coming and going means we could see a 5 win season or a 12 win season. Suspending Steve Smith was not a great start. Considering that the Panthers were able to win 7 last year, despite having such bad QB play, this team is too unpredictable. I wouldn’t bet on this one.
Big wins in 07: beating SEA 13-10
Prediction:  7 wins

Vegas Line: FALCONS projected to win 4.5 games (-150 Over/ +110 Under)
Last year: 4-12
07 Problems: I think it would be easier to just mention the positives, as the team had the worst season I’ve ever seen! From Vick to Petrino, it was a nightmare. Okay, positives, hmm…well they did win 4 games despite barely showing up to games, while WR Roddy White had a career year with 1200 yards.
Key Losses: CB D.Hall (Trade), TE A.Crumpler (FA), RB W.Dunn (FA)
Offseason Acquisitions: RB M.Turner (FA), K J.Elam (FA), QB M.Ryan (draft), OT S.Baker (draft)
Forecast: Rebuilding mode is hard to watch, and even harder to bet on. Trying to spot a win is hard at this point, and the Under is paying enough to take a shot.
Big wins in 07: beating SEA 44-41
Prediction:  4 wins