Thursday Night Football Preview: Jets vs. Patriots

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Published: September 10, 2013

Thursday Night Preview

Thursday Night Football Preview: Jets vs. Patriots -13

Now that we know a little bit more about what some teams look like and their situations, its off to the races for week Two in the NFL. This week’s Thursday night match-up will see the New York Jets heading to Gillette Stadium to challenge the New England Patriots. There are many story lines taking place in this match-up and yet we are only through one week of football, so buckle your seat belts…

Coming off of an upset win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Jets are looking to keep the streak alive, but this week it will be an uphill battle. Geno Smith didn’t look too bad on his opening outing, racking up 256 yards, one touchdown and an interception. This week he could be an okay play in two quarterback leagues, but most likely you can find a better option in standard one quarterback leagues. The Jets really need more play makers around him to help out. His go to receiver against the Bucs was looked like a circa 2007 Kellen Winslow.  If you’re desperate at tight end position, Winslow might be a good waiver claim this week as he appears to be the guy for New York, especially with Jeremy Kerley ruled out due to concussion symptoms. Second year player Stephen Hill led the team with nine targets last week and could also see an increased workload. Despite the preseason hype, the running back situation looks pretty bad. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell split the majority of the carries against Tampa Bay and neither was impressive. I would avoid them if at all possible in this week.

The Patriots come into week two pretty banged up. Running back Shane Vereen has been placed on injured reserve (IR designation to return) with a broken bone in his hand. Stevan Ridley will likely get most of the work, but look for Brandon Bolden and possibly Legarrette Blount to see some carries. Outside of Ridley, I can’t see the other two backs being very fantasy relevant this week. New England also has some issues with the pass catchers. With both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola both looking doubtful, Julian Edelman and rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson will have to pick-up the slack and should all see plenty of targets. Despite last week’s dud, it wouldn’t shock me to see Zach Sudfeld get more involved. For fantasy owners, only start him if you’re desperate. The Patriots defense is also a great play this week against the rookie quarterback.

My Predictions: Even though the Jets looked better than what most thought, I don’t think they stand a chance against The Pats. Yeah, New England may have some injuries to key players and question marks at the receiver position, but as long as Tom Brady is the signal caller and Bill Belichick is the head coach, the Patriots will always be a top contender in the NFL.

Patriots 27   Jets 13

Pickem’ Nerd Stats

Team records:
New York: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS
New England: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS

New York most recently:

  • When playing in September are 7-3
  • When playing on turf are 4-6
  • After out gaining opponent are 2-8
  • When playing within the division are 4-6

New England most recently:

  • When playing in September are 6-4
  • When playing on turf are 8-2
  • After out gaining opponent are 7-3
  • When playing within the division are 10-0

A few trends to consider:

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing New England
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games when playing NY Jets
  • New England is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
  • New England is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
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