2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers: AFC East

This is the second of our eight part preview where will will look at each of NFL division’s fantasy football values and sleepers. The first part was a look at the  NFC East. Rather than give you the same sleepers that you can find everywhere else, we will attempt to dig deep and find someone who is likely to go un-drafted in nearly every fantasy football draft that could contribute. All 2011 ADP rankings courtesy or friends at Myfantasyleague.com.

 Buffalo Bills

Undervalued: Fred Jackson (RB)-  It seems like even the Buffalo Bills themselves under-appreciate Fred Jackson. In 2009, Jackson was a lightly regarded back-up to Marshawn Lynch who came out of nowhere to rush for 1052 yards and also chip in 46 receptions. His reward for such a good season was to watch the Bills spend the  ninth pick of the 2010 NFL Draft on Clemson rookie C.J. Spiller. Despite the setback, Jackson still quietly led the Bills in rushing again and was able to increase his touchdown output from four to seven. Now there’s been rumblings of Buffalo giving Spiller more opportunities this season and even talk of him stating over Jackson.

With an ADP of 85.15, Jackson is being taken as the 32nd ranked running back in most fantasy football leagues, which is only two spots ahead of his teammate. Spiller has shown little in his young career to deserve such accolades, while Jackson has consecutive seasons of 900+ rushing yards with 30+ receptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick breathed new life into the Buffalo Bills offense and if they can keep the momentum going in 2011, Fred Jackson is a solid fantasy football value.

Overvalued: C.J. Spiller (RB)- The Bills surprised a lot of us by selecting Spiller with the ninth pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, but the rookie did nothing to reward that gamble. Spiller battled injuries and showed poor pass blocking skills. He only rushed the ball 74 times all season (3.8 YPC) and caught 24 balls for 157 yards and a single score. Now there’s talk of Spiller commanding a larger percentage of carries in Buffalo and even starting over Fred Jackson. We don’t buy it. Spiller hasn’t looked any better during the 2011 preseason. He’s averaging under 3.0 YPC (12 rushes for 34 yards) and has only caught four passes. He’s not even a sure bet to be the Bills’ kick returner.

Spiller’s ADP is 98.61, but even that seems high for a part time player who’s done nothing to distinguish himself from teammate Fred Jackson. There’s still some upside with the youngster, but fantasy football fans are better off targeting more productive players currently being selected after Spiller, like Mike Tolbert, Tim Hightower and Brandon Jacobs.

Deep Sleeper: Brad Smith (WR)- During the tumultuous off-season, one quiet rule changed occurred that could have an impact on the fantasy football world. The “emergency/inactive third QB” rule is no longer in effect. This means a player like Smith, a former college quarterback, are free to enter and exit the game at any time. You can expect Smith to be utilized often as a wild-cat option in the red-zone, where he poses a threat as a runner, receiver, and now, as a thrower as well. In most fantasy leagues, Smith will be classified as a wide receiver, so if he can chip in the occasional rushing or passing score, it’s a huge bonus.

Miami Dolphins

Undervalued: Davone Bess (WR)- In his three NFL season, Davone Bess has quietly gone from part time return specialist to a good fantasy wide receiver. Each season he has improved his receptions, receiving yards and touchdown numbers. Now he’s slated to start 16 games opposite of Brandon Marshall.

Bess is an excellent target for WR depth, especially in a PPR format. If his number continue to improve, he’ll arguably be worthy of being a weekly starter. He’s also a good punt returner, so if you’re league allows for return yardage, bump him up your rankings. Most people disregard the Miami Dolphins passing game, so Bess is being taken as late as the 11th round in most fantasy football drafts.

Overvalued: Reggie Bush (RB)- We’ve heard this before: Bush is very motivated to prove his doubters wrong and is working out harder than ever. This season he’s in Miami and there’s talk that he will be featured over the disappointing rookie Daniel Thomas. But Bush is just not built to be a featured back. He’s not a good inside runner, and he’s moving from one of the best offenses in the league, that was built to exploit his skills and put him in favorable mis-match situations, to a vanilla offense with a sub-par quarterback. Bush also couldn’t stay healthy playing part-time, indoors, 12 games a year. How is he going to stay in a lineup playing full-time, outdoors, on grass and in the elements?

Deep Sleeper: Anthony Fasano (TE)- Nobody will mistake the Miami Dolphins offense for the 1999 St. Louis Rams. Still, with the transition from Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown dominating the red-zone looks with the gimmicky wild-cat formation to a more traditional offense, we can expect more play-action passes. Fasano isn’t much of  a down-field threat, but he can be effective in the end-zone and could be a player to consider for a spot start when the Dolphins play against a Buffalo Bills team that has struggled to contain opposing tight ends.

New England Patriots

Undervalued: Wes Welker (WR)- It’s very difficult to find a truly undervalued player on such a potent and popular offense. That being said, you can’t understate the value of Wes Welker. Last year he was hobbled by not being able to play full speed because of a knee injury suffered on the final game of the 2009 season. Welker still toughed it out and finished with 86 receptions and his seven scores were his most since 2007. Now there’s no doubting that he will be fully healed and ready to reclaim his status as the AFC’s receptions leader.

Welker’s ADP of 43.51 is good enough for him to rank as the 15th wide receiver, but he could still be a great bargain. In his last three healthy season’s Welker averages 115 catches and has led the NFL twice. He is a reception machine that is often being drafted as a WR3 when he could arguably be a top ten player, especially in a PPR format.

Overvalued: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB)- The “Law Firm” was a favorite of savvy fantasy owners last year. Inserted into a dynamic Patriots offense, BenJarvus was able to stay healthy and claim a role as the leading goal line option for a Patriots club that routinely finishes with 25+ rushing touchdowns annually.

In 2010, Green-Ellis was able to grab a large role with the Pats due to lack of competition. Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk missed the season with injuries. But Bill Belichick just spent two fourth round picks on Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who will most likely chip into BJGE’s playing time and opportunities.

Deep Sleeper: Stevan Ridley (RB)- For a team that scores as many rushing touchdowns as the Patriots, there’s normally plenty to go around. Ridley burst onto the scene in New England’s first pre-season game with a huge three touchdown performance. He has outplayed the Pats’ current starter, and is the team’s leading pre-season rusher. Ridley also proved to have solid receiving skills with 1o catches in two games. With an ADP of 186.93, he’s largely being ignored and is even being selected AFTER Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and fellow rookie Shane Vereen. A word of warning: Ridley lost a fumble in New England’s second warm up tilt, and did not play in game #3.

 New York Jets

Undervalued: Mark Sanchez (QB)- “The San-chise” has shown a lot of poise in his first two seasons in New York and has become a fan favorite. He’s led the team to consecutive AFC Championship appearances since winning the starting job as a rookie. Now the Jets will have Santonio Holmes for 16 games and have added Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason as weapons to the team’s underrated passing game.

Sanchez’s passing yardage and touchdown numbers have increased and he’s also scored three rushing touchdown’s in each of his two seasons. With an improved supporting cast, there’s reason to believe that those positive trends will continue. He should be able to outplay his current ADP of 127.98 (19th ranked QB) and could be a nice fantasy option for owners that choose to build strong teams by waiting on their signal-callers.

Overvalued: Plaxico Buress (WR)- Normally fantasy fans would be nervous about relying on a 34 year old starting wide receiver, but for some reason there’s a lot of buzz about Burress. The former Steelers and Giants wide-out hasn’t played at all since going to prison following the 2008 NFL season. This long lay-off was bound to have a negative impact on his conditioning and it’s shown. Also keep in mind that Burress has never been a prolific touchdown scorer, and has exactly two 1000 yards receiving seasons since 2003…and those were both when he was the Giants’ #1 guy. Now he’ll be a secondary target on a run first team.

Burress isn’t being selected until the 10th round of most 12 team fantasy leagues. But as the 39th receiver off the board, he’s being snagged before some teams’ number one receivers, like Braylon Edwards, Jacoby Ford and Mike Sims-Walker.

Deep Sleeper: Bilal Powell (RB)- Finding a deep sleeper is sometimes all about one thing: opportunity. Shonn Green hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his two seasons. He was drafted very highly as a sleeper last year, but was over-shadowed early by an aging LaDainian Tomlinson. Green has only scored two touchdowns in each of his two years, and Tomlinson faded badly down the stretch after receiving a lot of work early.

In 2011, LT is expected to take a back seat to Green, but if the former Iowa great can’t capitalize on another opportunity, Bilal Powell could be next in line for some extensive work behind the Jets’ mammoth offensive line. Powell (5’10″ 205) has good size and speed, and is leading the club in carries this pre-season. If you’re in a dynasty league, keep Powell in mind late in your draft.

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NFL Playoff Challenge: Start’em Sit’em Divisional Week

We’re back for week two of our playoff fantasy football Start’em Sit’em column, where we give you fantasy advice to help you through the NFL Playoff Challenge over at NFL.com.

The goal here is to get the most points possible with your selected fantasy players, while also picking as many guys as possible that will move onto the next round.

Here’s five guys we think should have good games, and could have a decent chance of moving on, followed by five guys that just aren’t good plays for round two:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I know, I know, you’ve been waiting to use Tom Brady and now you finally have your chance. But let’s face it, as good as Tom Terrific has been all season, you still can’t be in love with the Jets as his matchup. Take a look at Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco and their matchups, and you’ve got the same worry. Oh, and then there’s that Matt Hasselbeck guy who somehow threw four touchdowns last week against the Saints. Just play it safe and go with Rodgers, as he faces a beatable Falcons secondary, and threw three scores last week.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Turner and the Falcons don’t lose at home very often, and already handled the Packers at home earlier in the season. Turner simply gets it done, and while the Packers have a very aggressive defense, they only ranked 18th against the run. We’re not predicting who wins this game in this column, but either way, Turner should put up some of the best numbers out of any back this week.

Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots
Welker has done a great job against the Jets this season, regardless who is matching up with him, as he’s scored two touchdowns and piled up 13 catches for 118 yards in two meetings. There’s little reason to think Tom Brady won’t make him a big part of the Patriots’ offensive success once again, and with the Patriots having as good a chance as any team at moving on, you have to like playing Welker in the fantasy playoffs.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Call us crazy, but we don’t see Todd Heap racking up 10 catches for another 100 yards in the second round of the playoffs. We’re also not about to bank the season on John Carlson catching another two touchdown passes after catching on all season. What we do expect, however, is the Jets to ignore Gronkowski (who has two catches on the season against the Jets), and focus on Aaron Hernandez, who has 152 yards and a score against New York on the year. Tight end is going to be hit or miss in the playoffs, but after scoring 10 touchdowns on the season, look for Gronk to see some more action than he did in the first two meetings with the Jets.

Matt Bryant, K, Atlanta Falcons
Bryant has been clutch and ultra reliable all season long. He’s also playing at home, in a dome, and for a very good Falcons team. Look for him to have a few more opportunities to kick field goals than usual with the feisty Packers defense, but there’s also a pretty good chance this turns into a high-scoring affair. Either way, Bryant could be a gem at the kicker spot.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams
The Seattle Seahawks sacked Jay Cutler six times in a win earlier this year (I know, right?), but if everything goes back to the way it “should” be in the NFL, this 7-9 Seahawks team will be pummeled back to earth by a stable Bears defense. Even if Seattle gives the Bears a run for their money (or, gasp, wins), there’s still a decent chance Devin Hester runs one back or Hasselbeck turns the ball over a few times. With the best overall matchup, Chicago has to be the choice here.

Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets
Sanchez was in two different worlds in his two regular season matchups with the New England Patriots, so it’s hard to know what to expect in the third meeting between the bitter division rivals. Sanchez has three touchdowns and no picks in game one, while throwing no touchdowns and three interceptions in game two. With game three on the road against a 14-2 Patriots team that blew the Jets out 45-3 the last time they met, you can’t like his chances.

Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Outside of a six-yard receiving touchdown, he was pretty quiet against the Kansas City Chiefs. Regardless, he’s facing a brutal Pittsburgh Steelers run defense, and he’s doing so on the road. It’s a divisional matchup, so anything’s possible, but in their two meetings early in the year, Rice piled up a total 79 yards and zero touchdowns. Combine that with the decent chance that the Steelers move on into the next round, and Rice is a very dangerous play this week.

Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Why on earth would you ever sit a stud like Roddy White? He ended the regular season with a touchdown in three straight games, while putting up 1,389 yards and 10 scores on the year. True, but the last time he faces the Packers stout secondary, he picked up a measly five receptions for 49 yards. Sometimes the tough calls are the right ones.

Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets
Keller had a huge game against the Patriots the first time the two teams met, but hasn’t really been much of a factor since. Keller put up just three catches for 27 yards in the second meeting against the Pats, and on top of that, hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week five. You can bank on the little-involved Keller to break-out out of nowhere, but we’ll take a pass.

Olindo Mare, K, Seattle Seahawks
Let’s not make this situation any more complicated than it needs to be. Mare plays for a 7-9 team that isn’t a good bet to move onto the next round, is playing on grass, on the road, and against the Bears. He’s the kicker NOT to pick this week.

Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta can make some things happen on defense, but against such an explosive offense like Green Bay, it’s hard to expect them to hold Aaron Rodgers and co. in check the second time around. Their run defense is their bread and butter, but they’re vulnerable against the pass. And when you’re going up against the Packers, that’s not something you want to be.

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10 Most Frustrating Fantasy Players Of 2010
If a fantasy player is not performing, you don’t start him, it’s as simple as that. But if a NFL star is a roller coaster of inconsistency with monster numbers followed by dud weeks, owners have to cross their fingers and hope for the best.

Knowing that you could never bench such a huge bipolar playmaker, your forced to start’em each and every NFL week. Match-ups and schedules have meant nothing for these 10 players as they are simple hot and cold in very unpredictable fashion. When they play well, you love’em. When they stink up the joint they are the hindsight fantasy complaint of the week

10) Ray Rice- Ravens

At this point, you aren’t hoping for touchdowns, that’s something that just doesn’t happen for Ray Rice in 2010. Rice is pulled out of goal line situations, or trips over his own feet if he does stick in for a carry. His greatest fantasy contribution is his receiving yards, yet without the touchdowns he is by far a huge let down from where you drafted him last summer. Rice has 3 touchdowns this season, 2 of which came in one game.

9) Chad Ochocinco- Bengals

Ochocinco can have highs of 100+ yards a game with a touchdown to a single catch for chump change. The Bengals are 2-9 this season and have not held a lead too often this year. Yet, when it comes to climbing back into a game down by a couple of scores, it’s T.O that seems to shine in this offense.  Chad Ochocinco is fantasy heartbreak for those who have had to start him all year.

8) Vernon Davis- 49er’s

No one expected the same type of production from a season ago, but we do want more than a game with 1 reception for 3 yards. Just when you’re about done with this 49er, he top’s the tight end category with fantasy points. The 49er’s are plagued with poor quarterback options this year. Although, if I were playing QB for the 49er’s I would make a serious effort to throw the ball to this huge receiving target. Vernon Davis is being targeted as often as the fullback. Very frustrating, to say the least.

7) Wes Welker- Patriots

Welker was a fantasy keeper for most a season ago, and for good reason. The Patriots used this talent receiver all of over the field in key situations. This season, it seems Welker is an after thought in the Patriot offense. He has had 5 games this year with less than 60 yards receiving.

6) Matt Schaub- Texans

Talk about highs and lows. Matt Schaub has been a nightmare with consistency this year. He does just enough for you to want to start him each week, yet not enough that ever leaves you happy.

5) LaDainian Tomlinson- Jets

Even in a split role with Shonn Greene, Tomlinson tease’s you with just enough fantasy points to want to start him each and every week. You say to yourself, “This is the week he’ll find the end zone, I know it” -But it hasn’t happened since week 6. With the potential of the New York Jets rushing attack and potent offense, its torture making up your mind with this fantasy RB.

4) Mike Wallace- Steelers

Boom or Bust, take your pick. Mike Wallace is in the top 12 for receiving yards this season with only 36 catches. Wallace makes this list here for those in PPR leagues. With 8 touchdowns and 4 games with over 100 yards Wallace is definitely the Steelers big play threat. He has the talent to instantly change a game each and every week. The problem is, it seems he shows up every other week. Against Buffalo in week 12 Wallace had only 3 catches for 33 yards, but found the end zone twice with 122 yards against the Patriots. Mike Wallace is either killing your fantasy opponent or asleep in your fantasy line-up, enjoy.

3) Brandon Marshall- Dolphins

One Touchdown this season….enough said

2) Jay Cutler- Bears

I want to blame Cutler’s erratic play on his diabetes, but I can’t. I was going maybe suggest Doughnuts or Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups as a pre-game snack, but I don’t think it won’t matter. Cutler is a fantasy roller coaster that will only perform well when you bench him. There are 3 games this year where Cutler didn’t throw for a touchdown pass but two games where he threw for 3 scores, against the Cowboys and Vikings. Not to mention his latest head scratcher: 4 TD’s with 0 INT’s against the Eagles. Yards are great but the up and down weeks of getting his players into the end zone is painful. Those heading into their fantasy playoffs with Cutler and a viable quarterback replacement are likely to end their season kicking furniture of put holes in the walls.

1) DeSean Jackson- Eagles

No one player has the ability to spike your fantasy score faster than DeSean Jackson. He is the ultimate threat and a must start (if you have a crystal ball) DeSean Jackson sat out one game this year, which works perfect for this next example. D-Jack has 5 excellent fantasy weeks and 5 utter disasters. He is becoming one-dimensional on the field as defenders are simply keeping their safeties back to avoid the big play. The problem with Jackson in the world of fantasy is, you can’t ever bench him even if you’re convinced a safer option will get you decent points. With the speed that can blast by defenders on any given play, one pass from Mike Vick and Jackson can rack up more points than an all day performance from most receivers in the league.

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During the regular season, Gridiron Experts will be bringing you a unique fantasy football article called Fantasy Coin Flip, pitting two solid options against each other to help you decide your fantasy starting lineup each week.

To properly prepare you (and ourselves) for the season, we’re starting this article off with a bang and helping you decide between certain players you might be having a hard time picking between in your fantasy football drafts.

Injury vs Age

Wes Welker, WR, Patriots vs. Terrell Owens, WR, Bengals

Can Terrell Owens still play at 36, in a new system, while sharing targets (and the spotlight) with Chad Ochocinco? Yes, he can, but that’s still a lot of variables fantasy owners need to consider.

And for Welker, can he make it back from a serious knee injury in time for Week One, just six months after sustaining it? This writer thinks so, although fantasy owners also have to keep in mind that, even if Welker returns, he may fall short of his usual production as he works his way back to 100%.

However, just a mere glance at both player’s recent production suggests that a Wes Welker at even 75% would be a better selection than a 100% Terrell Owens in a new offense.

I’m sure Owens will perform well and should definitely be an upgrade from the 2009 T.O., but Welker is riding three-straight 112+ reception seasons, and you simply can’t ignore the massive role he has in New England, regardless of his current status.

The vote goes to Welker, and it’s by a wider margin than you think.

Youth vs Suspension

Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles vs. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

This seems like a no-brainer, but given the offense Kolb is walking into, this is actually open for discussion. Yes, Big Ben is the more proven passer and still has a good offense surrounding him, but he did lose his most explosive target (Santonio Holmes) the New York Jets, and oh yeah, he’s facing a 4-6 week ban to start the season.

On the flip side, Kolb isn’t quite as unproven as some people care to imagine. All he did in two spot-starts in 2009 was put up four total touchdowns and well over 300-yards passing in both outings.

He’s walking into 2010 with loads of confidence, the backing of his entire team, and a top-level option at receiver and tight end, along with some fresh, second-year legs in LeSean McCoy at running back.

Big Ben isn’t available until Week Five at the earliest, and I love Kolb’s Aaron Rodgers-like setup. It may be by a hair, but I’d snag Kolb and hope to grab Roethlisberger a couple rounds later.

Suspension vs Suspension

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers vs Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets

Both Jackson and Holmes enter the 2010 season with a suspension and some uncertainy as to their roles with their current team. However, Jackson’s uncertainty may be a bit too much to overcome when thinking about which of these potential fantasy studs to draft this year.

Jackson is good for 65+ catches, 1,000+ yards and has the ability to score 10+ touchdowns. However, he has his suspension and a lack of a contract, and rumors have it that San Diego no longer has him in their plans.

Holmes, on the other hand, also has a suspension, but is definitely in the Jets plans, as he’s reportedly worked out at and mastered all three of the top receiver positions in the Jets’ offense. His versatility and explosiveness should have him making an immediate impact from day one, even with a second-year passer and a run-first offense.

Just like our last comparison, this one is by a thin strand of hair. But with Jackson’s future is just a bit more in doubt, we’ll go with Holmes and the fact that he’ll undoubtedly be the most talented receiver in New York when he hits the field.

Kevin Roberts has other Fantasy Coin Flip Articles at: NFL Soup.com

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NFL News & Updates

• Steve Smith – WR, Carolina Panthers
  Panthers WR Steve Smith fractured his left arm playing flag football over the weekend and is in danger missing all of training camp. He had surgery on Sunday night and was expected to be ready in time for the Panthers’ regular-season opener. Panthers beat writer Darin Gantt expects Kenneth Moore to take Steve Smith’s (broken arm) place with the first-team offense in training camp.

• Vincent Jackson – WR, San Diego Chargers
  NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora speculates that the Seahawks could be interested if the Chargers put unsigned restricted free agent Vincent Jackson on the trade block.

• Wes Welker – WR, New England Patriots
  Beat writer Mike Reiss thinks that Wes Welker (ACL, shoulder surgeries) will open training camp on the PUP lists and stay there for at least the first six weeks of the regular season.

• Joshua Cribbs – WR, Cleveland Browns
  Josh Cribbs revealed on Twitter Monday that he intends to lose 13 pounds before the start of training camp.
• Steve Slaton – RB, Houston Texans
  Texans coach Gary Kubiak is optimistic that Steve Slaton will be cleared for live contact in camp during his June 25 medical check.
• Hakeem Nicks – WR, New York Giants
  Giants WR Steve Smith believes that Hakeem Nicks will be the team’s breakout receiver this year.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – RB, New York Jets
  ESPN New York’s Rich Cimini confirms that LaDainain Tomlinson failed to stand out on the minicamp practice field this spring.
• Mike Thomas - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
  Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio said that Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard are his No. 2 and 3 receivers right now.
• Demetrius Williams – WR, Baltimore Ravens
  Demetrius Williams left the Ravens’ final OTA two days early, allegedly over not getting enough reps.
• Joe Webb – WR, Minnesota Vikings
  Vikings VP of personnel Rick Spielman came away from minicamp raving about sixth-round QB Joe Webb.

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