Matt Leinart, Better Than You Might Think

When it came time to choose an article to write this week, I wrote “I’ll take Leinart”. This was probably the first time since his sleazeball days at Southern Cal had those words been uttered (other than the couple nights a week that the designated driver rolls his eyes and utters those words). Seriously, how did this happen? How did Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Lendale White, Mike Williams, and The Other Steve Smith all come out of the same era at USC and all seem to be cursed?? How can a grey haired QB, obesity, the Detroit Lions, two micro fracture surgeries and a Heisman trophy forfeiture all happen to the same offense? Are there more Kardashian sisters that we don’t know about that they secretly dated, therefore cursing them for life? How did I get to a point where I’m writing about Matt Leinart, and it doesn’t involve grandpa Kurt Warner or a hot tub in Arizona? Are the Mayans on to something with this 2012 thing? More importantly, how many questions can I ask in a row without giving an answer to any of them?

But you know what, this Leinart thing might just work in Houston. Sure he decided to forgo a starting gig under is ex-college coach in Seattle in favor of a backup job, therefore showing no passion, competitive fire or real commitment to the game. Sure a future hall of famer 3 times his age beat him out of a job in Arizona. Sure he checks down to his RB more than Trent Edwards ever did in his check-down prime. Sure you don’t want your starting QB to look like he just woke up at a Abercrombie after-party, put on some cargo shorts, and showed up his teammates by yelling “back shoulder on the out route, bro!!”

Yet in this case, this might just work. Houston is a top four rushing team in the league, which takes pressure off of Leinart, yet opens up the field for him as it did for Matt Schaub. Schaub turned the play action across the field pass for a touchdown into a play that everyone tried in Madden 2012 but undoubtedly got intercepted by a linebacker that is way faster in the game than in real life. Now, instead of checking down to Tim Hightower as Leinart did in Arizona, he will check down to Arian Foster, and watch Foster glide his way through flailing linebackers and clumsy safeties on his way to another long touchdown run. And of course, the most important aspect to all of this, he gets back a fresh as a daisy Andre Johnson. Yes, the same Andre Johnson who caused my heart to drop faster than your house’s value.

That’s all fine and dandy you say, except for one little thing: Matt Leinart sucks at being an NFL quarterback. See, I won’t go as far as denying that he sucks, but I’ll say he doesn’t suck that bad. The guy literally hasn’t had much of a chance to play the last three years, so our sample size is 2006 and some of 2007 in sunny, cactusy Arizona. In 2007, he was force-fed the starting gig despite Kurt Warner proving he still has plenty left in the tank, and every mistake Leinart made was magnified while he had to look over his shoulder to see a future Dancing with the Stars contestant waiting in the wings to steal his gig. Luckily he was not looking back and seeing Chaz Bono. Pretty sure even Chaz Bono doesn’t want to look back and see Chaz Bono. Warner went on to run the offense like the Warner of old, and Leinart hasn’t seen the light of day since.

So, our only legitimate sample size, one where he was given the reigns to the offense, with no worries about being yanked for a salsa dancer, and having a bonafide stud at WR, in this case Larry Fitzgerald, was 2006. In 12 games, he averaged more than 212 yards and a TD. As a rookie, with no running game. I think we can assume he’s somewhat better as a QB now (or at worst the same), has a similar threat at WR in Andre Johnson, has a pass catching TE in Owen Daniels, and the best receiving RB in the league. All while having a bye week to prepare for this pathetic schedule: Jacksonville, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Carolina. Those are the games left through the fantasy football finals. Only Cincinnati poses a threat to really cause Leinart to produce poor numbers, but otherwise he will be more than serviceable. I’m not saying “ride Leinart to a championship, brah!” but I’m actually saying “don’t panic and trade your top WR or RB for a non-elite QB while Leinart can be had for free.” Even a cursed, non-chalant, friend of Ashton Kutcher can be fantasy relevant down the stretch. And if he doesn’t? Do what everyone should do for everything: blame Kurt Warner.

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Derrick Mason Traded to Texans, Fantasy Value?

The Houston Texans acquired veteran WR Derrick Mason from the New York Jets in exchange for a conditional seventh-round draft pick on Tuesday. The trade comes only days after the New York Daily News reported that Mason, Santonio Homes and Plaxico Burress complained to coach Rex Ryan about offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.

Whatever the case may be, Mason is now a Texan, and possibly a very important Texan over the next couple weeks. Mason who is 37, isn’t about to stretch the field or out muscle elite defenders for big plays, but he is a wiley veteran that knows how to get open.

The Texans are very light at the wide receiver spot and do need a clutch set of hands on big plays. It’s unsure how much Mason still has left in the tank, but until becoming a New York Jet, very few questioned this talent level.

Fantasy Factor: At this point, you have to figure that if the Ravens and Jets couldn’t find a spot for him, he isn’t worth your time. Although, with the Texans being a far more explosive offense, Derrick Mason may be worth a waiver wire pick-up. The Texans are facing Mason’s old team this week (which he may or may not want to get back at ) along with the fact that the Texans are missing their go-to guy Andre Johnson. If you’re in desperate need for a WR, he may be a deep sleeper for this week. We will just have to wait and see how the other Gridiron Experts rank him in this weeks Waiver Wire Challenge

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NFL Draft: Early Winners and Losers

3 rounds down, 4 to go. For most teams, the real core of their draft hasn’t even really kicked in yet, and deep evaluation wouldn’t be completely fair. Nevertheless, here are my early winners and losers on the first 2 prime time NFL draft nights.

Early Winners:

Washington Redskins: The Redskins are playing the draft game magnificently. They have a terrible history of burning their picks for veteran players that never pan out. The Skins have moved back and forth adding picks and drafting players that fill their needs. Kerrigan should be a great addition to the Redskins defense, he has excellent pursuit and a great jump off the line, a real skill that will help against division rival Mike Vick. Jenkins adds huge size to replace Haynesworth on the defensive line, who looks to be as good as gone. Finally, if you printed out our Mock Draft Cheat Sheet, you would see we had Hankerson ranked quite high. The Miami WR is underrated despite the occasional drops, and should help the Skins add a play-maker they so desperately need. The most amazing part of Washington’s draft, and the reason I have them early winners, is the team still has 10 picks on day 3!

Houston Texans: The Texans have had a smart, patient draft adding important pieces to their defensive puzzle. J.J. Watt will allow Mario Williams to breathe from the constant double coverage. Brooks Reed fits perfectly into the Texans 3-4 linebacker core, adding much needed depth. The idea behind both picks is adding additional size and speed to keep the pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so there is less time to pick apart the secondary. Insert Brandon Harris into the mix as help to cover the slot, and the Texans look stronger on defense already.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints draft grade will drop after tomorrow, as they currently have only two 7th round picks remaining in their 2011 draft. Most of their late round picks were used in moving around early on, still the value of these four players should improve the core of the team drastically. Cameron Jordan can line up almost anywhere for the Saints and make an immediate difference, he is very quick and has superb lower and upper body strength. Mark Ingram will replace Reggie Bush and add size and toughness in the red zone, with Martez Wilson and Johnny Patrick rounding out day 2 with great value picks.

Honorable Mentions:

• Broncos -Solid first two picks, but they have not addressed their defensive line.
• Colts- Adding size to the lines is always a smart way to build through the draft, yet WR and DB help is needed.
• Patriots- The masters of the draft have added a ton of wealth through picks for next year, but reaching on RB’s doesn’t address the LB’s nor does it add extra help to the WR position.

Early Losers (still time to save the draft)

Seattle Seahawks- I’m not sure what the Seahawks strategy is here. Like I had said, the teams with the most late round picks still have a chance to load up on talent and improve their odds of walking away with a great draft class, yet the Seahawks are reaching on offensive guards early and avoiding the top end talent completely. How great do they think these late round players are going to be? The real strength of this years draft is in the core rounds, 2nd and 3rd; Guards are a dime a dozen. Personally I think the Seahawks are completely over thinking their strategy and missing out on real talent. I didn’t even consider their offensive line to be that weak and in need of repair.

Oakland Raiders- Last year the Oakland Raiders earned a lot of respect for their draft class from experts…this year is a different story. The Raiders are in the classic mode of burning the future for got-to-have-it now greed. Oakland added picks by giving up their 2nd round selection next year. The trade was out of pure impulse, not going after a fallen gem. They spent most of the second night haggling with the Patriots without a care to who they even wanted. A trade was made 5-6 spots before they could make a pick, indicating there was nobody they were really after. The Raiders were the addicted gamblers of the draft Friday.

Minnesota Vikings- Ponder was a massive reach, also was there really a need for a tight end?

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The Kansas Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have been garbage against the pass this season, allowing an absurd 329.6 yards per game through the air. Matt Cassell hasn’t exactly been a fantasy stud this season, and in all probability will not be this weekend he should although see a better outing then Chiefs fans are accustomed to. Dwayne Bowe has not been able to develop chemistry with Cassell and has been rapidly sliding down everyone’s board. TE Tony Moeaki has been Cassel’s only consistent target, and he will continue to be come game day. Jamal Charles’ fantasy star will continue to glow all season long regardless of the struggles at QB, he is a must start RB2 in every league and deserves the title.

Andre Johnson seems to be slightly affected from the lingering effects of a sprained ankle, but it didn’t stop him from hauling in 95 yards against the Giants last week he clearly is back in action. Johnson has been seeing some extended coverage this year and this is working in favour of Kevin Walter with a team leading 3 TD’s he is finally giving fantasy owners exactly what they’ve expected for too long. Matt Schaub has been struggling as a fantasy performer this season and although he should see an adequate performance this week and a few decent outings here and there he is no longer a top tier fantasy QB until he proves otherwise. Arian Foster on the other hand, must start!

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Week 6 Fantasy Projections: Chiefs vs. Texans Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Houston Texans 2-1 vs. Oakland Raiders 1-2

Naturally, I don’t want to dwell too much on the Texans players. Given all the variables and how they apply to your league, you should know who to start amongst the Texans offense. Between Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones, the Texans offense is loaded with fantasy protein, and if you didn’t draft any of their players you should regret it (though I hear Matt Leinart is available!). So this game might appear to be one-sided, from both a fantasy and reality perspective.

Let me be one of many to tell you that’s a tad presumptuous. Oakland actually brings a lot to the table. Amazingly, Gradkowski has actually been a significant upgrade over Jason Campbell, who’s about  eight months away from his UFL debut. And while Gradkowksi’s success has come against the Rams and Cardinals respectively, the Raiders have actually amassed thirty-six points in their last three halves of football (they’re not exactly the ’98 Vikings, but still, it’s more than anyone could have expected).

This is the start of the bye weeks, and come next week I’m starting Sam Bradford in the absence of Tom Brady. Certainly if you can justify starting Bradford in one league you can justify starting Gradkowski in one of similar makeup. Especially when you consider the Rams opponent (I’m starting Bradford because they’re playing the Lions in week five). Though the Texans are not quite as lowly as the Rams, their secondary is as close as you’ll find on a team that will compete for a playoff spot. Right now Houston has the worst passing defense in the league by a solid 129 yards (comparatively, the drop from 30th to 31st is thirty yards). This improves the projections for Gradkowski, as well as Zack Miller, Louis Murphy and Darius Heywood-Bey (especially Miller and Murphy). It’s a bit of a backhanded compliment, but of the offensively inept teams in the league, Oakland is clearly the best of the pack.

Without further ado, let’s get to some projections.

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Week 4 Fantasy Projections: Texans vs. Raiders Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Andre Johnson’s ankle is to the point where his status for this weekend’s road game against the Raiders, is in jeopardy. This is not great news for Texans fans, or Matt Schaub fantasy owners. Being without arguable the best wide receiver in the game could hurt Houston’s chances of pulling out a victory. More importantly it could hurt your fantasy team from pulling out a victory.

So who’s to step up?

Kevin Walter: Walter is not skilled enough to lead this team the way Andre does, but he is a great target and a perfect last-minute sub-in if Andre can’t go. Walter is 6’3, 220 lbs. and could get a fantasy boost this weekend. Although who ever gets the nod as the top WR for the Texans will have to face CB Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha is a beast and a shut down corner. He will create problems for any WR.

Jacoby Jones: Speedy 3rd receiver Jacoby Jones is the better option if Andre sits out. He is quick and can find holes in the defense.

Owen Daniels: The injury concerns are a weekly headache for this Texan Tight End. Every week fantasy owners wait and watch to see if this fantasy gem can bounce back into top form. So far it’s been a slow process. Daniels should not get any added stock value this week. He is still not 100% and will not be forced to pick up any missing slack

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Foster Kills Colts

Houston- Before a sell out, capacity crowd at Reliant Stadium, and for only the second time in seventeen games, the Houston Texans have beaten the Indianapolis colts, 34-24. The Texans were paced by a career game from 2^nd year running back Arian Foster, who rushed for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Texans game plan was to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands by keeping the ball on the ground. They handed off  to Arian Foster a career high 33 times. Foster scored on runs of 1, 25, and 8 yards. He also contributed 1 reception for 7 yards.

With the Texans being so successful running the football, quarterback Matt Schaub had very pedestrian numbers. He was 9 of 17 for only 107 yards. He tossed a 22 yard touchdown to Kevin Walter in the 2^nd quarter, and also had an interception.  Andre Johnson also had a very quiet day catching 3 balls for 33 yards.

Peyton Manning had a huge game, but most of his stats came in garbage time, when the Texans had a big lead throughout most of the 4^th quarter. Manning finished 40 of 57 for 433 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Dallas Clark led the Colts with 11 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown.Austin Collie caught 10 balls for 131 yards and a 73 yard touchdown, and Reggie Wayne added 7 grabs for 99 yards and TD.

Foster’s 231 rushing yards are a new franchise record for the Houston Texans. Having a running back capable of  a huge game  could really open up what is already a fantastic passing game. Man-handling their main division nemesis will no doubt give Houston more confidence than they have ever had before. That’s the kind of news that could make fantasy owners of any of the Texans key players ecstatic.

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Mark Clayton traded To Rams

The ripple effect of T.J. Houshmandzadeh being released and then signed in Baltimore has caused Mark Clayton to find the door. Clayton a failed Oklahoma product has never found his spot in the Ravens offense (who has besides Mason) and has been a fantasy joke. The Rams on the other hand are desperate for talent and have a much more wide-open style offense that Clayton may fit nicely in.

The Ravens sent wideout Mark Clayton to the Rams for “late-round considerations” according to Chris Mortensen of ESPN.

Matt Leinart agrees to a one-year deal with the Texans 

Houston is loading up on depth with another freshly cut NFL victim. After adding one more RB to the mix with ex-Buccaneer Derrik Ward last week, the Texans have now signed failed 1st round started Matt Leinart to hold a clipboard. Neither player has any real fantasy value, although if Steve Slaton fumbles in the first couple weeks of the season he might be the first water boy to have a NFL roster spot.

Fantasy News: Mark Clayton Traded to Rams Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Where Does Texans Rookie Ben Tate Fit In?

With Houston Texans rookie running back Ben Tate agreeing to terms on his rookie deal, fantasy owners everywhere are wondering what kind of value the former Auburn back has heading into the 2010 fantasy football season.

The answer? Unless Arian Foster and Steve Slaton fall asleep in training camp, it’s not much.

Tate has a fierce combination of size and strength, and is a shifty runner for his stature. However, Arian Foster’s solid closing performances to the 2009 season, and Slaton’s experience and explosiveness have them both penciled in as the number one and two backs for Houston to start training camp.

No one is knocking Tate’s ability to climb the depth chart over the coarse of the next month, but considering how high the coaching staff is on Foster as the lead back, and Slaton as the change of pace back, it’s not looking good for fantasy owners who are already drafting Tate in fantasy drafts.

Foster is already regarded as a “beast” by Houston coaches, as he runs fluidly, excels in pass protection, and has the skills to be the effective short-yardage back the Texans have been lacking.

Slaton, on the other hand, despite fumbling issues, still brings dynamite value as an explosive situational runner, and is easily Houston’s top receiver in the backfield.

None of this means Tate is going to be a forgotten man for good in Houston, but with last year’s top two options at full healthy and riding more experience, our vote is for Tate to be the odd man out when the season starts.

There’s no doubt that Tate was drafted for a reason, and when the time comes he’ll have a place in the fantasy realm. However, unless he vastly out-performs one of these backs in preseason action, it’s looking more and more like 2010 might not be his year to make a major impact.

• Gridiron Experts welcomes back long time writer Kevin Roberts. Check out more of his articles coming shortly or visit NFLSoup.com

Where Does Texans Rookie Ben Tate Fit In? Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born