10 Best Bang For Buck NFL Rookies Of 09

If your favorite NFL team is holding a top 10 pick in this year’s draft (or any year for that matter) you know that a blue-chip elite rookie is going to be added to your team. Actually, any player in the first, second or even third round can make an immediate difference in the NFL, one of the reasons why the NFL draft is changing to a 3-day prime time event. Of coarse, as the draft progresses the odds of finding a rookie that can step onto the field in his first year is very unlikely. But every year someone gets overlooked due to being under sized, having poor speed or just strange luck, making these late round gems usually the talk of training camp.

Gridiron Experts has compiled 2009′s best bang for buck players that made a difference in their rookie year. The criteria is not based on potential, as that’s all anyone ever talks about. We are simply giving props to the guys who were expected to hold clipboards but ended up being huge factors on the field.

[10] CB- Captain Munnerlyn (Panthers 7th RD pick)

The Carolina Panthers didn’t get much production out of last years draft class. In fact, their last pick was arguably their best. 216th overall the Carolina Panthers picked a 5’8 190lb DB from South Carolina, I guess they figured if it didn’t work out he wouldn’t have a long trip home. Captain Munnerlyn started 4 games and made plays all season. This late round steal had 44 tackles and a force fumble for a team that some didn’t even think he’d make.

[9] RB- LaRod Stephens-Howling (Cardinals 7th RD pick )

LaRod had two NFL starts and played in all 16 games last year as a special teams stud, making plays all over field, including returning kick for a touchdown. LaRod Stephens-Howling was drafted 240th overall with countless running backs gone before him.

[8] LB- Brad Jones (Packers 7th RD pick)

Truthfully I knew little about this surprise linebacker that was drafted with the Packers last pick. He caught my eye mid-season and to my surprise, learned he went 218th overall. Brad Jones former Colorado LB was a three-year starter in a 3-4 scheme. You’d think having knowledge of a system that most of the NFL runs would up his ranking. Either way, his rookie season was excellent and should grow into a regular in Green Bay’s starting rotation. 26 tck’s 4 sacks

[7] WR- Louis Murphy (Raiders 4th RD pick)

Heyward-Bey who? Louis Murphy has the skills to become a star in this league. This 4th round pick will have to compete with his own numbers from a year ago, as he led the Raiders in receptions, yards and touchdowns last year.

[6] CB- Glover Quin (Texans 4th RD pick)

If you told an NFL coach before day 2 of the draft, there was a rookie DB from New Mexico waiting in the 4th round that could start 12 games, he’d laugh in your face.

The Texans have had excellent draft classes in the last few years, but it’s been the work of scouting late round studs like Quin that has been given them high grades. After seeing Dunta Robinson split for Atlanta this offseason, true fans aren’t as worried knowing if a replacement can’t be found, bang for buck Glover Quin should continue to make plays.

[5] K- Ryan Succop (Chiefs 7th RD pick)

2009′s Mr. Irrelevant couldn’t have done more to shake that insulting nickname. Succop started all 16 games and hit all but one field goal under 49 yards (2 for 5 over 50+ yards, but nobodies perfect) Getting a starting kicker in the NFL with the dead last pick of the draft….not bad.

[4] WR- Julian Edelman (Patriots 7th RD pick)

Edelman has been given the nickname “Mini Welker”, which should stick for another season before he earning a more deserving name. The Patriots are one the NFL’s best teams at evaluating and teaching young players to produce at a high level. Edelman started 7 games and had strong numbers for being on a team with so many targets, but it was his performance in the playoffs that really open people’s eyes. With an off-season of mini-camps and training camp, the 232nd overall pick in last years draft could be a great fill in for Welker’s injury and maybe even a fantasy sleeper next season

[3] SS- Kevin Ellison (Chargers 6th RD pick)

The safety position is last line of defense, making it a high stress intense spot on the defense. Quarterbacks tend to read Safeties more than any other player pre-snap, that’s why we have to give it up for Kevin Ellison of the Chargers. The 6th round is not usually where you look to find starters for this position, but the 189th overall player drafted last year started 9 games and knocked the crap out of more than a couple guys.

[2] WR- Austin Collie (Colts 4th RD Pick)

Sure, Peyton Manning can make anyone look like a superstar, but it’s not as easy as just putting on a Colts jersey. Not many can step in and connect with their QB as fast as Collie did in his rookie season.  Collie had 60 rec, 676 yards and 6 Td’s in the regular season and was also a goto weapon for Manning in the playoffs, including 6 catches in the Super Bowl.

[1] WR- Johnny Knox (Bears 5th RD pick)

Johnny Knox was a lifesaver at times last season. This late round pick had more catches than any other rookie receiver in 09. Knox was forced into the spotlight by default, but regardless of the lack of competition, Johnny Knox was no doubt one of the best bang for buck players of last year.

Shaun Hill San Francisco 49er’s

NFL odds are not pretty for the St. Louis Rams this weekend. The 49er’s had their hearts broken last week by a guy named Brett Favre and will want a little revenge. Shaun Hill is looking for his third straight game against St. Louis with at least 2 touchdown passes in what looks to be a blood bath. The 49er’s are not looked at as a passing team, but when facing an opponent that allows an average of 255 yards per game you can’t overlook the match-up.

Derek Anderson, QB Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals game is one of the few NFL Week 4 match-ups that pits division rivals against each other, and it should be an interesting contest. On one hand, many people want to give the Bengals a lot of credit for toppling the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers over the last few weeks, but it might be premature to start hopping on the Bengals Super Bowl odds.

Derek Anderson will get the nod for Cleveland this week and given his track record against the Bengals, he’s worth a look if you are in dire need of a starting quarterback.

Anderson has played three games against Cincinnati in his career and he has a quarterback rating of 82.9 against the Bengals. Fantasy players will be more interested to know that he has eight touchdown passes in those three contests and has averaged 239 passing yards per game.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets

Many a sports betting blog were high on Jets tight end Dustin Keller entering the season, but the results have been mixed. After notching four catches for 94 yards in the first game, Keller has just five catches for 46 yards in the last two weeks.

The Jets are going to be in a shootout this week, no matter how much they try to control the clock and pace of the game. The Saints will score, which means the Jets will have to match them. As the Jets look more to the air, look for Sanchez to rebuild his strong connection this week with Keller for over 50 yards and a touchdown.

We’re entering our fourth week of tough battles. The Monday night game showcases the undefeated Vikings vs. the 2-1 Packers, another match on Sunday highlights the 3-0 Ravens and the 2-1 Patriots, and we could also see supposed Super Bowl contenders like Tennessee drop to 0-4. While the NFL has become increasingly more difficult to predict with the Denver Broncos 3-0 and the Cincinnati Bengals on the verge of being 3-1, thank God we have the fantasy realm to depend on.

Having trouble picking between Aaron Rodgers or Matt Schaub this week? How about Clinton Portis or Cedric Benson? Look no further. Instead of the usual Start/Sit piece, here’s a match-up between two guys, giving you some analysis and the heads-up on the best play in week four.

Aaron Rodgers VS. Matt Schaub

Rodgers is walking into Brett Favre territory, and no folks, he won’t be playing at Lambeau Field. Things have changed, and not necessarily for the better for Rodgers, as his offensive line is in shambles, and Green Bay is still having troubles running the ball.

Yes, Ryan Grant came one yard shy of 100 against the Rams last week, but it took him 26 attempts, and oh yeah, it was against the Rams. Add all that “success” up, along with the Packers sketchy line play, and the Packers offense is no guarantee to be rolling on all cylinders against a Vikings defense that has yet to give up over 90 yards or 250 yards passing to a running back or quarterback.

Oh, and the Packers haven’t been able to stop Cedric Benson or Steven Jackson (at all) the past two weeks. Think they’ll have better luck on the road against Adrian Peterson? Simply put: None of this adds up to a huge day for Rodgers.

Schaub, on the other hand, goes up against an Oakland pass defense that has allowed at least 240 yards passing in two of it’s last three games, while only allowing one passing touchdown per game.

The flip-side? They’re facing a Houston passing offense that is on a roll after being embarrassed by the New York Jets in week one. Matt Schaub has passed for over 300 yards and at least three touchdowns in the past two games, and with a healthy Kevin Walter Houston has an offense completely ready to take Oakland by storm. An excellent passing offense with an improving rush offense going up against a pass defense bordering on elite: something has to break.

Verdict: In the match-up between Schaub and Rodgers, bank on the “breaking” sound being Rodgers’ legs or ribs, as Jared Allen and co. should add to the 12 sacks Green Bay’s line has already allowed through just three weeks.

Clinton Portis VS. Cedric Benson

Both players face awful defenses in week four, as both of their opponents are winless, and also have offenses that won’t be offering their defenses any help. Portis has ankle and other leg issues, along with a predictable offense, nervous coach, and an inconsistent quarterback.

Benson, on the other hand, is leading the way as a power back on an unlikely 2-1 Bengals team that very well could be 3-0, and he just got done putting the finishing touches on a solid outing against a good Pittsburgh defense (at least we thought so). Neither running back “should” have any issues against their week four opponent. But the question is, who makes the better play?

Portis has the better speed, and considering the Buccaneers are starting the fairly untested Josh Johnson, he will be helped out with decent field position (most likely). Benson will get to run the ball on a Cleveland defense that hasn’t stopped the run all season, while the Browns’ offense switches hands from one inept quarterback (Brady Quinn) to another (Derek Anderson).

The difference? Benson has actually topped 100 yards rushing in 2009, and owns a touchdown to his name.

Verdict: While we’d love to give you the same projections everyone gave Portis for his match-up against the Lions last week, we’re going to finally promote Benson to the level he deserves to be at: play him as an RB1, and let Portis prove his worth on your bench.

The Side-Swipe Coin Flip: Know Your Chiefs and Giants

Dwayne Bowe‘s hamstring injury looks like it could linger into week four, making Mark Bradley a safe WR3 play, while also giving Bobby Wade some (very little) extra value. Bradley scored a touchdown last week off of four catches, so if Bowe is out again, he’s as good a fantasy bet as you’ll find for KC going against, you guessed it…

The New York Giants. Keep an eye on their receiver situation, as Hakeem Nicks was back in practice on Wednesday (limited), while their former starter Domenik Hixon was not.

Mario Manningham should still see plenty of action as the number two receiver for Eli Manning, and even if Hicks plays against the Chiefs (he really wants to), he shouldn’t steal enough time away from Manningham to downgrade him from a decent WR3 play. Keep plugging Steve Smith in as a WR2, as well. He’s worth it.

Preseason Fantasy Update

It’s hard to get a sense of how a fantasy player will produce in preseason football. All the real plays are tucked away for the regular season, so you have to be more intuitive when scouting for sleepers and ranking players. Watching a player run or read a defense is always something I look for. Here are my thoughts on a few standouts over the weekend:

Tom Brady- The Mike Vick signing definitely stole away from Brady’s excellent performance against the Eagles. Despite making one bad throw that was picked off, Brady looked very accurate. Brady’s value may take a week or two before people realize that he is back to his old self and move him up their draft boards.
Kevin Smith- We had written an article on Smith a couple of weeks back about his sleeper value in Detroit; seeing him in a brief appearance this weekend has backed up our prediction. Kevin Smith is a real RB threat and should not be knocked down due to being a stinky Lion.
Donald Brown- After a terrible start for the offensive line, Brown had 5 carries for 58 yards including a 38 yard scamper. It’s hard to gauge whether the Vikings starters would have allowed such a performance, but either way he was impressive in his debut.
Sage Rosenfels- The numbers weren’t huge, but a couple of his throws were bang on, including a few on the run. I saw a lot of Travis Jackson last year and in my opinion Rosenfels has the edge for the starting job.
Aaron Rodgers- Our prediction of Rodgers becoming a top 5 QB is on pace, he was excellent against the Browns on Saturday.
The Baltimore Ravens- I know it’s preseason, but when a team puts up 500 total yards of offense and is considered a defensive team, you have to take note.

The Tennessee Titans- Both rookies Kenny Brit and Jared Cook had solid performances against the Buccaneers. TE Cook was our favorite pick of the Titans draft and looks to be a deep sleeper pick despite Scaife being the starter.
The Oakland Raiders- Early impressions were good all around; the team needs to continue pounding the ball with their arsenal of running backs and use Russell exactly as they did, a work in progress leader.

If you haven’t already figured it out, Gridiron Experts does not treat you (our readers) like a bunch of idiots, we are not going to tell you play the obvious starters that you had already planned to start. If you own Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, you don’t question their abilities, you just let them play. If you have Michael Turner or Clinton Portis, you start them regardless of their match ups. So it boils us when major sites over think their Fantasy Football projections. Yes, this week will be tough for Peyton as he is up against the Titans, and yes, Michael Turner is on the road against a tough run defense in Philly, but unless you have a dynasty team that is stacked with depth, you start them!

Every fantasy football owner has to make that coin flip decision from time to time, should I play “the bum who’s done nothing for me lately” or “Mr. one hit wonder”? We enjoy picking sleeper players, so why stop now? Here is Gridiron Experts Fantasy (sleeper) Forecast for Week 8

San Diego vs. New Orleans is a great game, too bad it’s being played in London…I mean, send ‘em the Seahawks and 49er’s! We think this game could be a shoot out, as both teams are on neutral ground and seem to mirror each other with their heavy offense/crappy defense style. If you need a WR, look for Malcolm Floyd to have a strong game with the injured C. Chambers still out. Also, TE Billy Miller is a great fill in if J. Shockey isn’t a go this Sunday.

What a difference one guy can make, Jim Haslett has the Rams looking like a new team. Although we highly doubt they can beat the Patriots, they should put up good fantasy numbers. WR Donnie Avery might be able to blast past that secondary with his crazy speed. Speaking of coaching changes, Mike Singletary is a great coach, and I think the 49er’s would love to play for him: “Time to lose the tie 49er’s”. Frank Gore should have good numbers, but I think Isaac Bruce will see the ball a lot more this week, as he was a big factor in the 49er’s only two wins.

Jason Campbell has a chance to do something besides hand the ball off this week. The Lions are terrible against the pass (wow, really?), so this should be a good play at QB with Portis banged up. Going hand in hand, Santana Moss is due for a highlight reel catch, and you know he’s pitching for a playaction bomb pass.

Most websites have their fantasy mocks all done and ready to go, which makes us laugh a little because there’s only been one week of preseason. Here at Gridiron Experts, we want to see a little more from training camps before we put ourselves out there. Expect team and tier fantasy boards in the next week or so, but until then here are 10 players that we’re watching; so should you, as they have “sleeper” written all over them.

[singlepic=279,65,60,,]   #10 Garrett Wolfe
I know I know, what about Matt Forte, but Wolfe has a great chance to be the wildcard in this running back committee. G.Wolfe is lightning quick, and could be more of a receiving threat on third downs and in screen plays like a Westbrook type player. If only Chicago could figure out how to use his skills.

[singlepic=299,60,60,,]   #9 Chris Perry
The Bengals drafted Chris Perry in the first round of the 2004 draft. Since then, his career has been plagued by injuries. C.Perry played well against the Packers, and is a player to watch in the high powered Bengals offense.

[singlepic=393,60,60,,]#8 James Hardy
Gridiron Experts had this guy pegged before the draft; James Hardy was a touchdown machine at Indiana. The Bills new 6’7″ WR will be a huge red zone target, and has a great chance of destroying people in fantasy football leagues.

[singlepic=274,60,60,,]#7 Ray Rice
Willis McGahee is banged up, and Rice has a great chance to win over the coaches.

#6 Jerricho Cotchery [singlepic=394,60,60,,]
Favre’s new weapon; it may take a little time, but these two should be able to connect in the end zone at least 7 or 8 times this year.

#5 DeSean Jackson [singlepic=390,60,70,,]
The Eagles have never had a rookie receiver step into the spotlight in their first year, mainly due to the complicated west coast offense. DeSean played at Cal, which ran a similar type of offense to the west coast. I may be jumping the gun on this kid, but either way, if your league counts punt/kick return yards as part of WR numbers this might be your guy.

#4 Maurice Morris [singlepic=291,60,65,,]
Everyone just assumes Julius Jones has the job, but Morris isn’t just giving it up.

#3 Chris Johnson [singlepic=392,60,65,,]
We had mentioned in our post “Rookie Prop Bets” that we thought Johnson would be a great candidate for the rookie of the year. Chris Johnson was one of the only bright spots to this years draft for the Titans, and it looks as if he’s getting the start in the next preseason game vs. the Raiders.

#2 Lamont Jordan [singlepic=275,60,60,,]
Jordan was a bust in Oakland, but one team’s garbage is another team’s work horse. The Patriots burned Oakland last year by stealing Randy Moss for a fourth rounder, did they do it again? L.Maroney is streaky, and the coaching staff love Jordan’s toughness.

#1 Rashard Mendenhall [singlepic=391,60,60,,]
Have you seen the size of this guy? He could eat Willie Parker, let alone steal his carries. I was concerned about the Steelers running game, but Mendenhall should add that “bus” type player the Steelers have been missing.

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