With 1,340 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last year, 2011 was one of Turner’s most successful seasons during his eight-year NFL career. But don’t let those numbers fool you, Turner was inconsistent last season, especially late in the year. Turner had a stretch at the end of the season where he struggled. From Weeks 12 to 16, Turner rushed for just 280 yards, which is an average of 56 yards per game. He also averaged fewer than four yards per carry and scored just one touchdown during that span.

The playoffs weren’t much better for Turner who rushed for 41 yards on 15 carries in a loss to the New York Giants.

Turner’s late season slide would have been much worse had he not faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the league’s worst rush defense, in Week 17. Turner shredded an uninspired Bucs defense for 172 yards and two touchdowns.

Something else that shouldn’t be overlooked is Turner’s stretch of below average games coincided with rookie wide receiver Julio Jones’ return to the line-up from a hamstring injury. Once Jones returned in Week 13, the Falcons averaged 40.7 pass attempts in Weeks 13-16. During the four games that Jones missed due to injury, Atlanta averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game.

While the Falcons appear to be shifting away from it’s run-first philosophy, it’s too soon to say Turner will be phased out in Atlanta. However, stats don’t lie and the 30-year-old may be headed for a reduced role in 2012.

Fantasy Football:

Jeremy Maclin

Maclin’s production dropped in 2011 due mostly to lingering shoulder and hamstring injuries that forced him to miss three games. Still, Maclin was on pace to have his best statistical season of his career, at least with receptions and receiving yards. Maclin has been steady throughout his career, and at just 23 years old he still has plenty of upside. Despite missing those three games, Maclin (109 points) nearly outscored Philadelphia’s top wide receiver DeSean Jackson (115 points) in standard scoring leagues last year.

Victor Cruz

Cruz was dynamic for the Giants out of the slot in 2011. It’ll be interesting to see if he can get open consistently when defenses are focused on stopping him. Still, he’s a playmaker who will get a ton of targets, especially with Mario Manningham now in San Francisco. He gets the nod ahead of teammate and Giants top receiver Hakeem Nicks, only because of Nicks’ durability concerns. Nicks hasn’t played a full season in his three years in the league. Plus, Cruz outscored Nicks 198 to 152 in standard scoring leagues last season. That’s a large gap for Nicks to make up next season.

Torrey Smith

At the end of last season, Smith was one of Joe Flacco’s favorite targets. Smith averaged nearly 17 yards per catch as a rookie and has the downfield speed to make big plays on a consistent basis. If he can improve his intermediate route-running this offseason, his fantasy value will only go higher.

The Ravens’ WR1 is Anquan Boldin, who turns 32 this season and is coming off his worst statistical season in eight years in 2011. He finished the year with 57 receptions for 887 yards and three touchdowns, he also missed two games with a knee injury. During Weeks 10-15, before Boldin’s knee injury, Boldin had 33 targets. During that same span, Smith had 38 targets.

Jordy Nelson

Nelson made people take notice during the Packers Super Bowl run in 2010-2011. Now, after a very successful 2011 season, he’s a fantasy darling. Nelson had five fewer targets (94) than Packers WR1 Greg Jennings (99), despite playing in three more games. However, Nelson made the most of his opportunities, outscoring Jennings 210 to 143 in standard scoring leagues. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has vowed to get Nelson more targets in 2012.

Fantasy Football:

There is no question that Cam Newton had an amazing first season in the NFL. The Panthers new franchise QB raised the standard for rookie passing yards to a new level, throwing for 4,051 yards, an NFL mark that no one will touch for many years. Cam also passed for 21 touchdowns and ran 14 scores  in on the ground, making him easily one of the greatest fantasy football  jackpots of 2011.

Fantasy owners were flipping their lids at what an amazing late round steal Cam Newton turned out to be, as most first round quarterbacks do zero to little damage in their first year. The added bonus of rushing yards and rushing TD’s made last year’s first overall pick very appealing, but nobody was selling the farm to get him. But it didn’t stop there, both wide receivers taken shortly after Cam Newton also turned out to have excellent seasons. A.J. Green was selected 4th overall by Cincinnati and 2 picks later Julio Jones was snagged by Atlanta after they aggressively moved up the board.

Despite the obvious expectations that the highest drafted players will be the most productive in their rookie seasons, it rarely turns out that way. Yet every summer the most sought after fantasy players usually are the 1st rounders from April’s NFL Draft.

Last year, many experienced fantasy owners backed away from Green, Jones, and Newton in the early rounds. They were luxury picks that were to be targeted in the middle rounds. History has proven that it’s rare to see rookies contribute right away, and yet in 2011 all rules were thrown out the window. In hindsight, there really wasn’t anything to get too excited about. A.J. Green had 2nd round pick Andy Dalton throwing him the ball all season, and many fantasy owners wanted to avoid the all-rookie combo from the Bengals. As it turned out, the duo were a perfect fit; A.J. Green had over 1000 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. The young offense found a way to put up points on the board and even lead the team into the playoffs with the help of their stout defense.

Julio Jones on the other hand was entering a lethal offense, but was considered an afterthought with Roddy White, Michael Turner, and veteran Tony Gonzalez leading the way. Fantasy Football experts figured Jones would do well, but not many expected 959 yards and 8 scores.

Every year Fantasy gurus look over the depth charts and try to find holes in which rookies may be able to step up into. Most first rounders selected in April’s NFL draft are usually the first choice to be game-ready, especially in fantasy. Yet over the years the track record for fantasy options coming out of the first round hasn’t been overly spectacular.

Looking over the list to the right, you will definitely recognize many household fantasy football studs, although in their first year they were not helping you win fantasy weeks. Most barely saw the field, while others took time to adjust to the pro level.

With a modest fantasy standard of 900 receiving yards and at least 6 touchdowns, both A.J. Green and Julio Jones crack the acceptable mark for a great first round fantasy option. But as you can see, many didn’t even come close.

Rarely do 1st round NFL draft picks perform right out of the gate. In most cases a newbie takes anywhere from 2 to 3 years before he can start to feel comfortable in the pros. Even Mike Vick needed time to find his game at the next level. Vick played only 8 games in his rookie year, yet many people reached for him in fantasy.

First round rookies have the best odds of becoming something big at the next level, but statistically, they are the players most reached for and are the least productive for your fantasy team.

This year there are many elite fantasy prospects that have a great shot of being drafted in the first round. With the exception of deep keeper leagues, owners need to play it cool with expectations. Last season was very rare, and if you aren’t careful you could get burned.

Some may argue that I have placed too high of standards for some of these fantasy players. But considering how often they are reached for in the top half of your fantasy draft, I had to set the bar realistically high to match the value and expectations.

Expectations As a Fantasy Starter:
QB Fantasy Standards: 225+ Points 
Example: 3,200 yards, 25 TD’s
RB Fantasy Standards: 150+ Points
Example: 1,1oo total yards, 7 TD’s
WR Fantasy Standards: 140+ Points
Example: 1,000 total yards, 7 TD’s

Fantasy Football:

But is the two tenths of a second the difference between a bust and NFL stardom? Is the 40 yard dash really the end-all be-all of the NFL?

Of course not.

For starters the difference between two tenths of a second is not something one can measure without a stopwatch. The fact that players are running without pads and start in a sprinter’s stance is also not relevant to the next level. Actually, if I’m going to go one step further, how often are these future millionaire athletes going to be running in a dead straight line? NFL running backs rarely have a clear cut straight path to the endzone without making some sort of cut, juke, or spin. Sure once the ball carrier breaks the first wave of defenders his odds increase to take it the distance, but even then he has to worry about ball hawking safeties.

I have a different way to evaluate running backs, a drill that in my opinion gets no credit for being a true NFL test of a prospects skills. It’s called the 3 cone drill, and if you look back at the history of the results, you’ll see a pattern that fantasy football fans may find a little interesting.

Simply put, the 3 cone drill is a measurement of a players’ cuts in and out of breaks. Speed to turn the corner, speed to make someone miss. What’s really the most surprising statistic is that going back over the last 4 years, the top cone drill performers are almost all NFL studs, or are on pace to be.

This year RB Chris Rainy of the Florida Gators ran an impressive 3 cone drill time of 6.50, breaking the record that Ray Rice held for years. In fact 3 RB’s of this years draft prospects had impressive numbers: Rainy, Doug Martin of Boise State, and LeMichael James of Oregon. When added to the list of top 3 cone drill performers of the last 4 years, their numbers accompany some impressive household names.

Quickness, along with the ability to shed defenders, gives a team a weapon at RB that can be added easily into almost any offense. A nice change of pace RB can help a team pick up decent yardage. Ray Rice is a Fantasy Football all purpose workhorse, and while he didn’t kickoff his career as a full-time starter, Rice slowly contributed as best he could growing into the stud he is today.

The team and system do need to fit the style of the player in order for things to work out. Adding any of these quick RB prospects to a club with no offensive line or no passing game could really ruin their chances of doing some damage, at least in their first year. Doug Martin looks to be more of an all around running back, but James and Rainy have “3rd down” type qualities and are about getting to the outside or slipping through coverage.

At this point, and before Pro day results change my mind, Chris Rainy, LeMichael James, and of course Doug Martin are all on my short list for players to watch.

Fantasy Football:

That’s it. No more bye weeks. Now you can just focus on matchups, injuries, weather, and the other factors that tend to keep owners awake late at night.

Remember to activate any of your backs who will be participating in the Thanksgiving trilogy. If you plan to start Ray Rice, Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Kevin Smith, or Maurice Morris; safely insert them into your lineups before their Thursday kickoffs transpire.

With that, let’s progress to a detailed look at how the backfields are evolving on every AFC team from a fantasy perspective. This column will provide the comprehensive information that you need, to maximize the chances of winning your fantasy matchups in week 12.

Check out the AFC Week 12 Goal Line Gossip report

Fantasy Football:

There’s only one more round of annoying bye weeks, so after week 11 you won’t have to worry about checking to see if your key starters are out. Unfortunately this is a particularly rough blow-off for the byes, as the Colts, Texans, Steelers and Saints all have key fantasy contributors who won’t contribute to your playoff push. On to the news….

Fantasy Football:

NY Jets at Denver
The Jets will be rolling their eyes at any sort of college option offense tonight. You can bet that even after a little success the Broncos will look foolish forcing a one-week wonder offensive scheme on prime time TV.  I like many fantasy New York Jets tonight, and even like them as 6 point favorites to easily cover. The Broncos are about to face a team that even on a short week are extremely motivated to get back into the winning department. I expect a lot of Shon Greene and think Mark Sanchez could have a big day. As for Tim Tebow, unless the use the option as a wrinkle to an aggressive spread offense that features many deep shots down the field to get those safeties out of the box, then this game could get ugly.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay
The overlook game is where a team literally over looks an opponent for a bigger, typically divisional match-up the following week. That won’t happen here, even if the Buccaneers could keep this game close Aaron Rodgers will pull away in the second half. I really don’t like any Tampa players in this match- up, even in a blowout “got to throw” to get back in the game type offense, Josh Freeman and his WR’s are out of sync and frustrating for fantasy owners.

Carolina at Detroit
Now, this could be an overlook game. The Lions know they get to host the Packers next week and think they should be able to knock of the champs in their own house. The voice around the locker room could have been something like “It’s only the Panthers, we got this”.
I expect a type battle, one in which fantasy options could really pay off. The Lions may sputter at first and find themselves even losing after the first quarter. Cam Netwon is a frustrating QB to face and should confuse and possibly stun the crowd in challenging for the upset. I really like Steve Smith this week, I would have love to recommend him in our Start’em Sit’em Gauntlet, but he is one of the Elite 30. Other possible sleepers include Brandon Pettigrew Jeremy Shockey and Jonathan Stewart

Jacksonville at Cleveland
Except for MJD, there is really no one that you must absolutely start. Colt McCoy has upside but overall the game should be very low scoring. Vegas is predicting an over/under of 34.5 which is not a good sign for anyone that you are thinking of playing.

Oakland at Minnesota
This could be a great game for Ponder to show why he was drafted high in April’s NFL Draft. He is not fantasy starter-worthy but he does have better grasp of the offense and has a good match-up. Still, who are we kidding.. this is a game of the RB’s, both teams should lean heavy on the run in a back and forth contest. Both the Raiders and Vikings are not exactly front runners for being known for shutting down the power run game, and a full does of either Michael Bush and Adrian Peterson should result in high numbers.

Buffalo at Miami
Miami is talking about stringing together a winning streak that will not only save their coaches job, but ruin their chance for a nice draft pick. Don’t get me wrong I believe in playing for pride but a 7 game winning streak is not happening. Still, there’s no reason why the Fish couldn’t spoil the Bills postseason dreams before the calling it quits on their stinky season. Buffalo has fallen hard and the recent injuries to the offensive line will not only affect the passing game but hurt the fantasy stock of Fred Jackson. I expect a lot players on the Bills to continue to disappoint fantasy owners once again. As for the Dolphins, the green light is a go for expectations to a high scoring and impressive win. I think Reggie Bush has found his groove and deserves a start in a reserve roll on fantasy rosters
Dallas at Washington
This game is going to get ugly. It is a divisional match-up but much like the Eagles the Redskins just can’t get things together. There is really on one on Washington worth starting where as the Cowboys have great fantasy match-ups across the board.

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Back when I was handling the Power Rankings, I had really believed that this was the year for the Ravens. But after seeing multiple upsets and vanilla offensive play calling I have now changed my mind. The Bengals are a team on the rise and have amazing young talent that will lead their team for years. I think both offense’s tee-off and run up the score board a little bit. Both are frustrated with the Steelers and need this game more than they want to lead on. Ray Rice should see a heavy work load as well as Cedric Benson for the Bengals. Both passing games should be in playoff form as the AFC North is too close to take this game lightly, I expect a high scoring affair and one you should overlook the defensive stats for. Las Vegas is calling for an Over/Under of 40.5, my guess is we see a something closer to 50. Check out my predictions along with all the other Gridiron Experts in out Week 11 Pigskin picks

Arizona at San Francisco
Despite a one-sided affair in which the 49er’s are projected to win by 10, the Cardinals are feeling great about their spoiler victory over the Eagles last week. That confidence could translate into great fantasy production for players like Beanie Wells. If the Cardinals can keep this game close his value does hold for solid yardage. Although if the 49er’s strike fast the running game could be abandoned Risk vs. Reward.

The 49er’s passing game has yet to really be something to rely on for fantasy owners, Alex Smith has earn the respect from the team and local bay area and we may start to see the his leash loosened for more deep threat opportunities in the coming weeks. This match-up clearly looks like one that may see more deep strikes, add him and Michael Crabtree to possible sleepers

Seattle-3 at St. Louis
Not a must-see game for us average fans, but one that could translate into huge fantasy points. Both teams are known for running up the score against each other. Great fantasy match-ups for Brandon Lloyd and Marshawn Lynch

Tennessee at Atlanta
The Falcons and Titans have a lot in common. They both are the 2nd seed in their respect divisions and both are feeling the pressure of having it run away on them. The Falcons should be pressing after an embarrassing overtime performance that pretty much handed the game to Drew Bree’s and the Saints. The Titans on the other hand see their opportunity with Matt Schuab going down and will want this one badly. This could be the turning point for either team, I expect a playoff caliber game one that should be high scoring and aggressive, green light on all tier 1-2 fantasy options

San Diego at Chicago
Great game to watch but maybe not one that will help fantasy owners out. Matt Forte is a high percentage of the entire team’s offensive output, the Chargers have been pressing on defense and may choose to shadow even double team Forte the whole game. This means that the Bears passing game could reach out and connect with targets that are not usually in the routine. As for the Chargers offense, Vincent Jackson was shutdown which introduced to the fantasy world a Vincent Brown (two Vincents, C’mon really?) He played very well and may continue to see targets. Gates will be the wildcard that will get mismatches as best he can, but overall the Bears defense has just been too impressive for fantasy owners to expect anything but average numbers.

Philadelphia at NY Giants
Rumors are now that Mike Vick may suit up. Either QB really does not stand a chance against a Giants team that is annoyed with their heart breaking losing on the road last week. The Eagles are amazing on paper but play confused undisciplined football.Every Eagle is a fantasy gamble this week, not knowing what to expect. The Giants look strong and match-up well against the 5-9 and below average line-backing core. I expect great fantasy numbers from all Giants Sunday Night

Kansas City at New England
The Patriots are handed a gift Monday night, one in which all fantasy options get added fantasy potential. The Chiefs should be able to move the ball against the Patriots defense, which hardly is a shut-down unit anymore, but the troubles in KC are execution from within, Dwyane Bowe is a must-start, but one that requires a little prayer.

Fantasy Football:

Fantasy Football is a fictional game that we can all take far too seriously at times. We occasional yell at the TV or our roll our eyes at our smart phones, but in reality the NFL could care less. Teams that game-plan to run the ball heavy one week can mess up your reciever’s performance or vise versa. Maybe the score is out of reach and it’s time for the 2nd tiers to get touches, (like Michael Turner this week). Or maybe drives are just cut short thanks to turnovers or great special teams play,  what ever the case may be, no matter what it is that ruins your chance for more fantasy points…. it pisses you off sometimes.

I think the biggest let down in fantasy football is the expectations that we have for our players week to week. Gridiron Experts tries to hand out modest Fantasy Player Rankings, but sites like ESPN or Yahoo can really sell you on big numbers. The following 10 players had off weeks, which is fine really….it just pissed off some of the Fantasy fans I was hanging out with or chatting with today, So I thought I’d showcase them

10) Dallas Clark & Pierre Garcon- Colts
The Colts are never going to have a lead in a game for more than a quarter, or couple drives at the most. Curtis Paniter is terrible, yet a couple weeks ago the pitiful Colts would at least throw for 90% of the game to try to make an attempt at a comeback. This kept players like Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon active in line-ups with the chance for pity-points. PPR leagues had extra value for Garcon with the high number of targets, but at this point the Colts are a dreadful bunch that should extend beyond this Sunday for players you should forget about.

9) Jon Baldwin- Chiefs
Isn’t it always the way, you watch some rookie play an amazing game one week, pick him up on the waiver wire, only to ruin your Sunday and fantasy week the next.

Jon Baldwin was a bit of an exception entering week 9, I too thought he would shine against the Dolphins at home after a big (gift) win over the Chargers. Baldwin isn’t some player that came out of the woodwork, he is a first round WR that is just now feeling healthy and comfortable in the Chiefs offense, or at least that’s what we all thought. He is going to be a fantasy stud, but it didn’t happen this weekend.

8) Daniel Thomas- Dolphins
Is he active? or is he not active? Banged up Daniel Thomas did play, but was a non factor Sunday as he carried the ball 7 times for 12 yards. “Thanks dude, thanks a lot” was the phrase of the day my friend yell at the TV in a sarcastic voice, that has me in stitches.

7) Roy Helu- Redskins
Helu pissed fantasy owners off because apparently there are people that believed Ryan Torain was the answer in Washington. I have never for one second been on board with Ryan Torain, but never thought much of Helu either. Redskins coach Mike Shanahan said after Sunday’s game that Ryan Torain will only play when new starter Roy Helu gets “tired” going forward.

6) Knowshon Moreno- Broncos
I was able to talk a guy on out of starting Knowshon Moreno today, or at least I think he started Brandon Jacobs instead hard to tell with twitter. Knowshon had 4 yards rushing and 4 yards receiving Sunday.

5) Darrius Heyward-Bey- Raiders
Zero catches and one target

4) Willis McGahee- Broncos
This old-timer makes the list not because he upset the Raiders, but because he was on most peoples bench Sunday. Willis McGahee rushed 20 times for 163 yards with 2 touchdowns. Didn’t this guy have a broken hand? Believe it or not, McGahee carried the ball with his left hand at times Sunday. Those who had better options didn’t give McGahee a second look, but sure wish they had. McGahee tore through huge gaps in the Raiders’ defense even busting off a 60-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.

3) LeGarrette Blount- Buccaneers
More carries meant more yards right? -Wrong. With the injures to the backfield Blount owners were expecting so much more. Blount had only 13 carries for 72 yards against the Saints. We all know it’s hard to run the ball when your down by a couple scores, but a balanced offense works so much better than Josh Freeman struggling to make plays. The play-calling is just absurd right now in Tampa, and fantasy owners are paying the price.

2) Jacoby Jones- Texans
How is it that in a game that got so out of hand did the current starting wide receiver do so little. Jacoby Jones had 2 catches for 28 yards. Jones did have a couple exciting punt returns, but that really doesn’t justify the crappy numbers.

1) You Tell Me
Who was on your bench that pissed you off? Who did you start that had below average numbers, leave a comment and add to the list

Fantasy Football:

We are entering the second half of another fantasy football season. Staying updated on the latest rumors, news, injuries and active/inactive lists has never been more important. There’s no need for you to search all over the web or squint at the annoying scroll on your television. We’ve got all the late-breaking news for you.

Just a reminder, after this week there are NO BYES in week 10, followed by the last, devastating round of off weeks in week 11. For this week’s action, the Jaguars, Lions, Vikings and Panthers are on bye.

Fantasy Football: