Gridiron Experts

The Miami Dolphins have a great one, two punch in the backfield with running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown.  The question however is not which running back will be the starter, but which running back should be drafted first in fantasy football.  Both backs have proven to be reliable fantasy options when healthy and given a fair share of opportunities.  I have participated in some mock drafts and have seen Brown going anywhere from the 4^th round down to the 6^th round.   This is followed by Williams generally being selected about two rounds later than his backfield counterpart.  Both players bring great attributes to the table, but both have negatives associated with their games.  Brown is generally regarded by many fantasy owners to be an injury risk and Williams desire to play could be a question mark. 

After all Brown missed seven games last season due to injury and Williams had been stated as saying that this could be his final season.  However, whenever either player has been given the majority of the carries that player has performed well above the running back norm.  To get a better understanding about each player’s abilities I have provided a chart of their statistics below.  The category of total touches is a combination of the player’s total rushing carries along with their total receptions.  Also, the player’s total yards from receptions and carries are combined, along with all touchdowns scored.

As you can see each player has put up great numbers when staying healthy throughout the season.  However, if either back were to get injured the value of the other player would skyrocket as is evidenced by Ricky Williams’s breakout last season after Ronnie Brown went down.  A big question mark that most owners may have with Williams is his age.  He is well past the 30 year mark where most running backs will be labeled as being bust worthy.

However, don’t forget that Ricky did take some “time off” a few years back so the extra wear and tear on his over 30 year old body is not where it likely should be.  My suggestion to any owner would be to take a shot on either one of these players if the opportunity presents itself, especially in the later rounds.  I personally would not want to spend any more than a 6^th rounder on Brown and possibly a 10^th rounder on Williams.  Just don’t forget to take a closer look at the numbers before draft day.  It is clear that the Dolphins like to run and if you were to combine both players total touches and total yards for either 2008 or 2009 it is clear that close to 2000 total yards and close to 20 touchdowns will clearly be produced by this backfield.  It is just a matter of which back will last the season and get the most opportunities.

Enter that point in your fantasy football draft where you think to yourself, “I know I should get a kicker or my team defense, but there are a few sleepers I still like”?

Well, we’re here to help eradicate that questioning. Don’t get us wrong; there is absolutely a time and a place to rack up the sleepers, rookies, or injured players worth taking a chance on.

But, as hard as it is to admit it, sometimes you’re better off just taking a kicker.

Since we highly suggest you don’t draft a kicker (and in most cases your team defense) until the final 2-3 rounds, we’ll only discuss options that could tempt you in the final three rounds.

Here’s a look at a few players that you might think about picking up, but you should probably just leave alone:

Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Unless you’re in a quarterback-heavy league or your league requires three starting quarterbacks (or has two, plus a QB/WR/RB/TE option), it’s unlikely you should ever need to pick up someone like Freeman.

We’re not saying he holds absolutely no value, but he’s pretty close to the bottom of anyone’s fantasy quarterbacks rankings.

Let’s face it. The guy threw 18 picks as a rookie, plays for the Buccaneers (who still aren’t good, by the way), and has a rookie as his number one receiver.

Instead of taking a leap of serious faith and grabbing Freeman as your third or fourth quarterback (and god help you if he’s your second), just take the best kicker available, instead.

Andre Caldwell, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Caldwell stepped up a bit in 2009, and was a solid receiver out of the slot for the Bengals. However, he dropped off significantly down the stretch, and is now no better than the team’s fourth passing option.

He now has veterans Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant slated ahead of him, and is also facing stiff competition against veteran Matt Jones and rookie slot demon, Jordan Shipley. …Continue reading Fantasy Football: Sometimes, You’re Better off Taking a Kicker

Fantasy Football Draft Personalities

Every person that plays fantasy football has a different type of personality and a somewhat different approach to picking their teams.  So, much like poker it is a good idea to get a feel for how owners may make a selection.  Since fantasy football has been around for quite some time it is safe to assume that most people have belonged to the same league or leagues for an extended amount of time.  Therefore, it should be fairly easy to develop somewhat of an instinct to what some owners may do when it is their time to draft.  I personally, know for sure that some players in one of my leagues will jump at the opportunity to add a player from their favorite NFL team fairly early in the draft.  This is just one type of the personalities which I list below.  These are just some that I was able to think up, but of course there are potentially unquestioned amounts of different personalities.

THE REACHER – This is the owner that will go out and take someone much earlier than any other owner would ever anticipate taking this player.  This usually results in some sort of shock and awe from other owners.  The reacher is often influenced by positive news out of training camps about a player’s performance and/or the players above average play during preseason games.

THE GAMBLER – This mindset is one which is similar to the reacher, however it is far more risky.  This owner will take a shot on a player with lesser value in the hopes that this particular …Continue reading Fantasy Football Draft Personalities

Last year’s gamble, this year’s keeper

In most Keeper leagues the name of the game, is value. Owners generally are allowed to keep a player, or players, but must sacrifice a draft pick in order to do so. Typically, an owner loses the corresponding pick that the selected keeper was chosen. If you spent a 2009 2nd rounder on Drew Brees, and want to keep him for 2010, you forgo your 2nd round pick in this season’s draft.

That’s why value is so important to Keeper league owners. If an owner uses his picks wisely, or can turn a late round gamble, or throw away pick into a fantasy stud, the value for the next season is outstanding. Often a player that would go in the top 10 in a standard draft can be “protected” for a nominal draft pick, allowing your early picks to be used on building great depth.

Let’s take a look at some players that were late round picks last year, that would make great keepers for the 2010 season. Using the 2009 ADP stats from Myfantasyleague.com these players make for outstanding keeper candidates.

• 10. Steve Smith (WR NYG)- ADP 134- Should still lead the Giants in catches. Actually got a team leading 23 redzone looks for 5 TD’s last year. Brings added value to PPR leagues. Early 2010 ADP has him going 38th.

• 9. Pierre Garcon (WR IND)- ADP 242- Though not a conventional keeper, Garcon could be a good choice in a PPR format simply based on the fact that it would only cost the average owner a 20th round pick. He will continue to get a lot of looks in Indianapolis.

• 8. Jermichael Finley (TE GB)ADP 175/ Vernon Davis (te SF)ADP 155- Most owners would never consider keeping a tight end, but the numbers dictate that there’s plenty of value in it. Tight ends get more and more numbers every year, and these low costs could allow a fantasy owner to concentrate on more valuable …Continue reading Last Year’s Fantasy Gamble, This Year’s Keeper

Off-Season Injury Recap 

No matter how prepared you are for fantasy season or how well you manage your team, injuries can seriously affect your status as the champion. Having an in-depth knowledge of injury history can help one succeed by making the right decisions on draft day. For instance drafting NYG WR Hakeem Nicks in mid-late rounds might seem to make perfect sense, however knowing that his  #2 Domenik Hixon is out for the season with a torn ACL may want to make you re-think that decision and draft a player with a lesser name, for a lesser cost, who may just produce as well if not better.

This list was not prepared in the efforts to frighten you away from drafting any of these players, one of the rules I abide by in fantasy lore is to always “play your stars” and not to second guess yourself. After all this is why you drafted them. So, there is no need to fear Tom Brady’s sore shoulder. This list was created instead to inform you of the injuries that these players have accumulated in order to make proper decisions about drafting or even keeping them.

More or less, a quick list for you to know what to expect, and or a quick history of what they’ve recently went through.

Included in this list are injuries that have occurred in the 2009-2010 …Continue reading Fantasy Football Offseason Injury Recap

Football Fantasy 101: Killing An Old Myth

We tend to hold off on the really juicy fantasy strategies until closer to the start of the fantasy buzz month of August, but I got to get this one-off my chest. I over heard a couple of guys debating on what sounded like options for a fantasy keeper pool, either they were team mats or a friend was trying to offer his advice. The details were not important, what was interesting was the poor logic.

Every NFL coach has a game plan to how their team is going to win each week, and it consists more than “We’re going to go out there and win”. Coach’s like Rex Ryan play very conservative, allowing the defense to force turnovers while the running game wears a team down. The Colts try to gain an early lead to allow their pass rush to create havoc and teams like the Saints try to run up the score and leave you in the dust. Each team has a system to winning and they try their best to execute it, but I can tell you one thing, there isn’t one second throughout a real NFL game where the coach is thinking he needs to get his quarterback more fantasy points.

When did people get the notion that easy match-ups meant a guarantee of high fantasy points for a Quarterback? or that a tough divisional game or tough opponent meant a poor fantasy output? The idea that a coach will still be calling …Continue reading Football Fantasy 101: Killing An Old Myth

Fantasy Football Weekend News

• Johnny Knox – WR, Chicago Bears
  The Chicago Tribune gives Johnny Knox even odds to open the season as a starter. Fantasy Outlook Even odds? Who else is going to beat him out at this point? The job is almost a lock.
• Chris Johnson – RB, Tennessee Titans
  J.J. Halsell, a salary cap expert for FootballOutsiders.com and ESPN, believes the Titans could work around the “30 percent” rule by modeling a long-term deal after the one recently signed by Patrick Willis.
• Dez Bryant – WR, Dallas Cowboys
  Rob Phillips of DallasCowboys.com expects Dez Bryant to play “a lot” as a rookie if he doesn’t stumble in picking up the playbook. Fantasy Outlook: The biggest element Brant brings to the fantasy table is his ability to draw coverage. All indications are that M.Austen is to be projected very high in our rankings (coming June 1st)
• Andre Johnson – WR, Houston Texans
  After returning to practice Thursday, Andre Johnson suggested that …Continue reading Fantasy Football Weekend News

RB Draft Strategy: Breaking Bad

The general rule of thumb when it comes to fantasy football drafts is to lock down the best and most promising running backs available in the field. Generally speaking, rushing yards have the highest value in fantasy football leagues and running backs whom catch passes are even more sought after. As a result, a top fifteen running back has historically had more value in fantasy football than a top ten receiver. But that’s historically speaking.

Contemporary NFL doesn’t value the individual running back like it used too, so the risk-reward on backs has been diminished.  Concisely, it isn’t that the conventional wisdom of using all your early picks on running backs is entirely illogical, it’s just outdated.

At the dawn of fantasy football’s boom, it was common for a single running back to be responsible for about 80% of a team’s rushing load.

I was watching the 30 for 30 documentary “Straight Outta LA”. It wasn’t the series’ finest piece by a long shot, but I noticed it said Marcus Allen was a Raider from 1982-1992. That’s ten years. Add that to the tail end of his playing days he spent as a productive member of the Chiefs, and we’re left with a fifteen year career. Those days, it goes without saying, are ancient history. You’re lucky to find a running back splitting time with only one other viable fantasy option, much less a guy that hangs around for 10+ years as a primary in the backfield.

By far the longevity of Allen’s career is what stands out the most. These days, even if you can find a running back that accounts for a bulk majority of his team’s carries and can stay reliably healthy every week, his career, generally grinds to a halt inside of five years (Shaun Alexander, anyone?) from all the wear and tear. There are a few modern-day …Continue reading Fantasy Football RB Draft Strategy: Breaking Bad