5 Fantasy Football Running Backs To Expect Less From in 2011

There are always going to be players who produce and those who fail; players who surprise and those who meet expectations. Yet, the key to having a solid fantasy season is trying to correctly pick your fantasy football running backs. I’d expect less from the following running backs from this season.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

Reason: Age, Regressed Offense

LT had the LOWEST amount of attempts in his entire career with the Jets last year, but he averaged almost a full yard-per-carry more than he did in his last season with the San Diego Chargers (4.2 from 3.3). However, the guy only had 6 total touchdowns. He did add some flash in the passing game (52 catches for 368 yards) and won’t be worthless in a point-per-reception league.

However, the Jets’ offense looks like it could take a step backwards. Whether or not they do, LT could be hitting a wall; hard.

Whether or not the Jets get back Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards both, they are a team that relied on the passing attack. Maybe Sanchez can continue taking the steps forward as a franchise quarterback, but no QB can lose Holmes and Edwards and NOT suffer a bit. As the team needs to rely more on the ground attack, look for an “up the gut” strategy to succeed with Shonn Greene as the power back. LT is more of a scat back at this stage in his career, but to think he will have 900+ rushing with 350+ receiving might be a stretch this year.

2. Ryan Torain

Reason: System, Competition

Torain was a player that I was HIGH on last year. He was a typical Mike Shanahan running back that was scooped up late in the draft. Because of Shanahan’s system of play (and the fact that Shanahan drafted him while in Denver), he was poised to be a top backup and a potential 1-2 punch with Clinton Portis.

Now that Portis has been released by Washington, Torain looks to be the opening day starter. He did have almost 750 yards in only 10 games which was amazing for a Redskins offense that struggled. BUT, you might want to be careful of this guy and not burn an early pick on him.

Mike Shanahan LOVES picking up running backs. With his style of zone blocking offense, almost any running back can look better than they are. PLUS, he does have a talent for finding late round gems, from picking up Terrell Davis in the 6^th round, to finding Peyton Hillis in the 7^th. It only makes sense that with the additions of Penn State’s all-time leading rusher Evan Royster, to athletic phenomenon and former Nebraska two time offensive MVP Roy Helu, Jr., you can’t expect much more than for the younger guys to get a chance at carries.

That means taking away carries from Torain. He could be a very capable back, but there are a lot of questions also.

3. Jahvid Best

Reason: Committee

The Lions are continuing to build their offense and should continue to see success. However, Jahvid best might only approach the 1,000 all-purpose yards threshold this season. He is an explosive player and a flashy player. BUT, the Lions didn’t add Mikel Leshoure with a high 2^nd round pick so that he could sit on the bench.

Best is a tremendous player and might continue to take steps forward as their “lightning” of a thunder and lightning attack. Still, it might be a situation where the Lions rely on their “thunder” of Leshoure to build their offense around.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew

Reason: Lack of Surrounding Talent

I still love this guy. I am almost not sure if I should put him on here at all. BUT, you need to look at what is around him.

The Jaguars are a mediocre team right now. That’s not a knock on them, it’s the truth; they were a .500 team last year who only went (3-3) in the division. That’s an average team. Furthermore, of their eight wins, five came against Denver, Dallas, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Tennessee. Those five teams all picked in the top 10 (a 6th win was against Houston who picked 11th … by the way). So with an easy schedule they were average.

And then this upcoming year things get WORSE. The Jags still play in a fairly competitive AFC South, but also have games At New York (Jets), At Pittsburgh, and then home against the Saints, Ravens, Chargers, and Buccaneers. If you wanted to run the ball, you don’t want to do it against those teams and those defensive fronts …

Finally, what cast of characters are around Maurice Jones-Drew? Mike Sims-Walker is probably on his way out the door. Blaine Gabbert was the top pick and he won’t play until … 2012? And you don’t see immediate impact when your draft picks are from Lehigh, Mount Union, Wyoming and Mid Tennessee State. These guys could have added a few pieces for the future but right now they look like they won’t score many points at all. With no offensive weapons to help him, Jones-Drew will find the box stuffed and he won’t get many open lanes all year.

5. Pierre Thomas

Reason: System, Surrounding Talent

If you just think about the 2010 Pierre Thomas, then you would laugh at him even being on this list. But don’t forget that Thomas burst onto the scene in 2009 with 800 yards on only 150 attempts (5.4 average). Still, he is absolutely a running back that just doesn’t make sense to scoop up early.

Thomas will be worth a mid to late round pick depending on your league. But think about what he is surrounded by right now. Ladell Betts, Julius Jones, and Heath Evans are all veteran backs who can add stability to a championship caliber team. Chris Ivory proved that he was capable of carrying the rock for the Saints as well last season. Plus, while Reggie Bush might still be around as an all-purpose threat, does anyone remember that the Saints traded back into the first for Mark Ingram?

Thomas quickly finds himself in a crowded backfield for a team that really doesn’t focus on the run as a primary part of their game plan anyways. Can he continue to be a capable back? Absolutely … but his chances might be dwindling.

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NFL Fantasy RB Strength Of Schedule

Stats are always made to be broken. A sneaky run that goes for 60 yards after a long day of nothing but frustration happens all the time. Yet, a fantasy football strength of schedule list is a helpful tool to evaluate a players chances against a season’s worth of opponents. Many fantasy sites go about making such a spreadsheet by simply taking the top 10 toughest defenses, the 10 worst defenses, compare the results and hit the print button.

Gridiron Experts has gone beyond the cookie-cutter stats to analyze each game, giving what we think is a better prediction based on extended criteria.

If you think a new NFL week doesn’t come without lingering aches and pains from the week before, not to mention jet-lag, you’re dead wrong. Long road trips, teams off BYE weeks, and divisional match-ups are just a few of the factors we took into account when compiling this list. Other increments include: fantasy playoff match-ups, “overlook” games, and recent additions to a team’s defensive roster.

Here are our top 3 best and worst Running Back Strength of Schedule Teams in 2010

3 BEST RB Schedules

San Fransisco: A+

The 49er’s get three road games out of the way quickly to start the season. Early on, the tougher opponents like the Saints, Eagles and Broncos are all at home, which is a plus. Their bye week is comfortably placed in the middle of the season, and even the late 2-game road trip to Arizona and Green Bay isn’t as bad as it seems. The Packers themselves are off a tough 2 game road trip and shouldn’t be that fresh after just facing Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner. The icing on the cake is the fantasy playoff match-up. Depending on whether your league holds it’s Super Bowl in wk 16 or 17, the 49er’s face 3 out of 4 divisional opponents, which looks like gravy.

Even the road trip to San Diego in December is a gift with no snow or cold temperature. Throw in a few possible jackpot games against St. Louis (2), Carolina, Kansas City, and the cross-country trip the Bucs have to make, and Frank Gore has moved up our fantasy board.

Dallas Cowboys: A

The Coyboys don’t have a ton of easy rushing match-ups, but they don’t have any hard ones either. The second half of their NFL schedule is where we give all our high marks. Starting week 12 Dallas sees opponents that in essence are all the same type of build and chemistry. The Saints, Colts and Eagles style are all about getting that early lead, then blitzing you with their speedy pass rushers. The Cowboys have a great defense that can keep games close, hence never abandoning the run game. As good as the last 6 opponents look on paper, not one of them are really a shut-down defense (except maybe Washington). The Cowboys will be involved in high-scoring affairs much of the last 6 weeks of the year, giving your fantasy RB’s a huge opportunity.

Now factor in that for 6 weeks straight the Cowboys will be playing in a dome (Colts, Cards, four at home) right in the heart of the fantasy playoffs; you’d be crazy not to draft a Cowboys RB in 2010.

Arizona Cardinals: A (based on a 16 game fantasy schedule)

The Cardinals were always looked at as a passing team, that is until Leinhart took over. Beanie Wells and Hightower could bull-doze up a ton of yards with a fantasy schedule like this one.  Arizona will face a few tough opponents on the road to start the season, but they have an easy downhill stretch near the end of the NFL year.

The Broncos will be visiting week 14, in-between divisional match-ups on a 3 game road trip. Dallas also has the Cardinals in between divisional rivalries and could be overlooking the trip to Arizona for the re-match against Philadelphia week 17. This schedule doesn’t look like much at first, but if you factor in the timing of when the Cardinals face their opponents, you may change your point of view. Timing is everything in the NFL. It also doesn’t hurt playing the AFC West this year, along with facing Dallas at home on a prime time Saturday night game.

3 WORST RB Schedules

Chicago Bears: D

The Bears have the toughest fantasy schedule in the last four weeks of the NFL season. Remember this is purely a rushing type fantasy strength list, and RB receiving yards could bail you out during the fantasy playoffs…but most likely it won’t. The Bears face the Patriots, Jets, Vikings and Packers as the last four teams in 2010. No matter what Matt Forte or Chester Taylor can do for you during your fantasy regular season, starting wk 13, the predictions look dreadful. If you are keeping Taylor or Forte, be prepared to have a back-up plan the second half of the year.

Detroit Lions: C-

We understand that there is a good chance the Lions could rarely use the run game, as rookie J. Best has great hands. Yet we should still point out that the Lions face one of the tougher rushing schedules in 2010. Being in a division with the Vikings, Packers and Bears is never a good thing, but to have to face the NFC East this year makes it painfully difficult. The NFL isn’t a game of Madden, and you can’t throw it on every down, even if you have a good receiving RB. When you are in your fantasy playoffs and need a must-have score, Lions RB’s aren’t going to be that reliable.

Cleveland Browns: D

The Browns are not a team you would look to draft an RB from in 2010, as the team is rebuilding. But just in case you are thinking about drafting a sleeper, you should know that the last 5 games of the year include a 3 game road trip to Miami, Buffalo and Cincinnati, and then end it off against the Ravens and Steelers. By this point we can almost guarantee that the Browns are running with a rookie or deep roster player. Their 2010 schedule is very difficult and not a place you want to be in your fantasy playoffs.

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It comes every week. You read all the Start/Sit advice you can find, scan the waiver wire, and even contemplate pulling off a trade. But, as I’ve said before, sometimes the best answer is simply taking a look at two guys that are already on your team, and just making the best choice possible.

Last week’s match-ups gave you two successful starts if you followed my advice and started Thomas Jones over Clinton Portis, and Kyle Orton over Matt Hasselbeck. Take a look at this week’s three match-ups and see if they can point you in the right direction:

Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

Who’s going to show up in Washington? Could it be the pass happy Eagles that can’t pick up first downs, or a balanced well oiled machine? The Eagles need to run the ball more or no one will ever buy into the play action pass. This seems to be an ongoing problem with the Eagles, but we think McNabb should play well either way. The players were questioning the play-calling (so were the fans) after the crazy loss to the Raiders, so expect Reid and his coaching staff to be more in tune and focused this week.

The Giants want to get back to the running game but Arizona has a solid front 7. Throw in Eli Manning’s sore heel and we might have an issue. Manning is a risky start against an aggressive Cardinals front line, but Eli does step it up in big games, and with the crowd on his side facing an average secondary, his numbers should be solid.

Verdict: Manning, but both should have solid numbers

Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Both of these backs play in the same game, so that makes it even easier to decide. Benson is going up against his former team, and although he’s already been having quite the season, we may not be ready for what is about to happen in week seven. All the angst, bitterness, and resentment Benson has bottled up could very well explode in a huge performance. However, there is the slight risk that Lovie Smith feels the same way for Benson not playing as well as he is now while he was a Bear.

If the Bears defense comes to play, it could be a tough day. Forte, however, has only one fantasy worthy performance on the year, while his 15 carry, 23-yard effort last week seems to be a new trend he is developing.

The Bears move the ball through the air, and after watching what the Houston Texans did against the Bengals last week, it’s fair to say that’s where they’ll find their success, yet again.

Verdict: It’s not nearly as close of a call as you think. Forte is a nice name, but he simply isn’t producing. Go with the man with a chip on his shoulder. Start Benson.

Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts Vs. Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins

Collie broke-out in a big way two weeks ago, hauling in eight passes for 97 yards and two scores, establishing himself as a solid target in a very explosive Colts offense.While there’s no telling who the new hot weapon will be each week with the way Peyton Manning spreads the ball around so effectively, it’s hard to see Collie not coming up big against the St. Louis Rams this week. Is he guaranteed close to 100 yards and another two scores? Of course not, but he had eight catches to Pierre Garcon’s one catch in their last game. Keep that in mind.

Moss, on the other hand, faces a tough Philly defense that mainly focuses on the run, and while they have a solid secondary, it can definitely get burned.

See: New Orleans

See: Zach Miller and Oakland last week

The Eagles will undoubtedly bounce-back and take care of business, but that doesn’t mean Moss can’t have some success. However, as optimistic as the changing of the play-calling duties from Jim Zorn to Sherman Lewis makes me feel, I just can’t bite on Moss at the moment.

He lives for prime-time games, so if you have a Flex spot available or are debating playing both of these players, then go for it. I’ll back you.

Verdict: Collie is in a hot, consistent offense with a top-three quarterback leading the charge against a very, very bad St. Louis Rams squad. You have to take your chances with Collie.

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Gridiron Experts Start’em Sit’em Week 6

Most sites recycle imaginary fantasy numbers with yards and touchdowns and quick blurbs on how great Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson is going to do, but you already know that. We here at Gridiron Experts are not about to insult your fantasy football intelligence by posting the obvious numbers, instead we go out on a limb and try spotting great fantasy match-ups that many people might be overlooking. Star players will always perform, but key players can thrive in one week situations through either an offensive game plan or an excellent match-up. Our goal is to zone in on these perfect match-ups and offer advice that might make your life a little easier. It always comes down to you making the last minute call with your line-up, but hopefully we can help.

** “Less chat more picks”-? Readers want more**

Start’em

• Kurt Warner- On the road where the Jaguars were made to look like kitty cats? Don’t fret. Warner and his lethal receiving core will be in a shoot-out in Seattle this weekend. The Seahawks and Cardinals are battling to a spot where they can sneak up and challenge the 49er’s for the division.
• Ben Roethlisberger- vs. the Browns…enough said.
• Philip Rivers- Oh no, the Denver Broncos, run for the hills (mile high)…wait, the Chargers are at home and off a bye, and are tired of  hearing about how great McDaniel’s and his team of misfits are happy and winning. Rivers will test the Broncos defense by stretching the field, just like last year. Rivers combined for 570 yards and 5 TD’s in the two divisional games against the Broncos last season.
• Josh Johnson- In a bind? I know this kid makes bad decisions, but he didn’t play that bad on the road last week. Stop laughing, Johnson threw 240 yards and 2 TD’s last week in Philly and should be a solid start if you need a bye week QB.
• DeAngelo Williams- The Bucs are struggling against the run…amongst other things. Williams has yet to be able to get on track from his strong fantasy numbers from last season but the Bucs are averaging 157 yards per game against the run; with Delhomme playing awful football, the Panthers might rely more Williams.
• LeSean “Shady” McCoy- The Eagles are a pass first team, but when facing a team that is 2nd from last in run defense…the Birds will run the ball. One of the Eagles favorite plays is to set up is the play-action deep pass; expect a heavy dose of the run from the new rookie who is splitting carries with Westbrook. McCoy could also see a lot of clean up duty if this game gets out of control (it will).
• Knowshon Moreno- The Chargers have been ruined by the run all season. Denver is starting to find their passing game which should keep the Chargers defense honest. This is a prime time game and Knowshon wants to showcase his skills to the football world.
• Sammy Morris- Fred Taylor is on the shelf and Morris is getting more looks. the Pats love to give everyone a carry including fullbacks and water boys, so don’t start Morris if you have better options, but Morris did get 17 carries last week and against Tennessee he should see closer to 20. Good match-up.
• Santonio Holmes- Holmes hasn’t found the end zone since week 1 and is way overdue. The Browns are going to try to double this talented receiver, but with the rookie Mike Wallace needing attention with the deep pass, Holmes should have a productive day.
• DeSean Jackson- Happy to see his teammate Maclin reach a career day is all good for one weekend, but you can bet Jackson will be winking McNabb’s way this Sunday as fans from his old playground are a close drive away. DeSean played college ball at CAL and has been on the East coast almost his entire time in the Pro’s. You know he’s going want to show off for friends and family against the Raiders this week. It’s not like there’s a shortage of tickets at Raiders games these days.
• Donald Driver- Driver has been money for fantasy owners this season. A guy that most people grabbed for depth is seeing fantasy starting lineups more and more often. Each one of Drivers’ games have been a solid fantasy outing and we don’t see it stopping against the Lions this week. Start’em!
• Eddie Royal- The Sophomore slump has been a rain cloud over this guys head for the first couple weeks of the season, but with Marshall back the coverage is focused elsewhere. Royal has quick feet and is deadly in the open field, his stock should start to rise. Royal had 10 catches last week and 8 combined in the first 4 games.
• Santana Moss- The only bright light on a very depressed team. In each of the Redskins 2 wins Moss made big plays to swing the momentum.

Sit’em

• Mark Sanchez- The hot rookie is cooling off a little, and we think you should look at other options. Defenses are starting to see something in Sanchez’s game as of late, something that tends to happen at some point in a rookie QB’s season. Even with the great match-up against the Bills, we see the Jets running the ball a lot more this week. Not only do the Bills suck against the run, Sanchez has completed less than 50% of his passes and been picked off 3 times with only 1 score in his last 2 games.
• Chris Johnson- Bench him! No one will do it, but the brave ones will thank themselves. After going 10-0 and now starting 0-5 it’s safe to say the Titans have lost hope and are spending more time talking about their problems rather than fixing them. They are looking forward to their bye week in wk 7, and the Pats were just embarrassed against the Broncos last week and will ruin any kind of rally cry from this Titans team.
• Willis McGahee- No bounce back week here, the torch has almost certainly been passed to Ray Rice.

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