Peyton Manning Fantasy Insight 2011

As the 1998 draft approached, the Indianapolis Colts held the first overall pick, and were faced with a monumental decision. At that time, two quarterbacks were the consensus candidates to be the initial player selected. Ryan Leaf, who had just finished leading his Washington State Cougars to their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1931, or Peyton Manning, who had started 45 games and set 33 school records as a Tennessee Volunteer. Colts General Manager Bill Polian ultimately determined that Manning was his best choice to the lead the franchise, which had finished 3-13 the previous year.

The significance of that decision has since been well-chronicled, because the disparity of the signal callers’ careers could not be more widespread. Leaf’s colossal failure as a professional made him the highest profile bust in NFL history, prior to the arrival of Jamarcus Russell. He only appeared in 25 games before his retirement in 2002, passing for 14 touchdowns, along with 36 interceptions, for a QB rating of 50. Conversely, Manning is a four-time NFL MVP, who has started 16 games for 13 consecutive seasons. He has completed the third highest total of completions (4,682), and the third most TDs (399) in NFL history during his stellar career, trailing only Brett Favre and Dan Marino in both categories. Peyton Manning has also been selected to 11 Pro Bowls, been chosen as an All Pro eight times, has been a Super Bowl MVP, and possesses a catalog of other accomplishments that are far more extensive than what will be listed here.

Manning also has started 208 consecutive regular season games, and in fact has never missed a contest in his career. However, that streak is now in extreme jeopardy.

In late May, he underwent neck surgery for the second time in a 15 month period. As his recovery lingers, and the Colts’ September 11 opener inches closer, Manning enters the regular season under a cloud of uncertainty for the first time in his remarkable career. There is increasing concern that he will be unable to take his accustomed position under center in week one, and possibly beyond. While the surgery was characterized as “minimally invasive” it has created a massive dilemma for the entire organization, its fans, and also fantasy owners. Now, it must be determined how significantly Manning’s value will be altered, which also impacts the status of Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, and Joseph Addai.

Peyton Manning’s Career

Peyton Manning recorded yet another exceptional season in 2010, as he helped Indianapolis capture their seventh AFC South title in the last eight years. He began by throwing for 433 yards in the Colts’ opener, and continued accruing yardage until he eventually established a new career high (4,700). That placed him second among all QBs, as did his 293.8 YPG average, and his 33 TDs.

His performance also helped Indianapolis become the NFL’s top ranked passing offense, averaging 288.1 YPG. That was accomplished despite multiple injuries to his preferred targets, as former Pro Bowl TE Dallas Clark missed 10 games due to a wrist injury, and multiple concussions limited Austin Collie to just nine games.

Manning’s production was also the primary reason that the Colts ranked fourth in total offense (380.8 YPG). That feat is yet another testament to his ability, since the lofty ranking was achieved despite the team’s anemic running game. Indy was just 29th in rushing offense, averaging 92.7 YPG. While that represented improvement over 2009’s league worst 80.9 YPG, it once again forced the team to become inordinately dependent upon Manning, and the passing attack.

Since the running game appears destined to struggle again this year, it is paramount that Peyton Manning and his arsenal of receivers return, if the team is to experience any success in moving the ball. His top option remains five time Pro Bowler Reggie Wayne, who has surpassed 1,100 receiving yards for seven consecutive seasons. As well as 100+ receptions in three of the past four years. Wayne will enter his 11th season nearing the end of his impressive run among the league’s elite, but is capable of one more very productive year. He will be re-joined by Clark, who will attempt to replicate his 2009 numbers (1,106 yards, 10 TDs). Pierre Garcon, who garnered 67 catches for 784 yards and six TDs in 2010 remains in the mix. As does Collie, who appeared to have separated himself from Garcon as the team’s clear No. 2 WR last season (eight TDs, 58 receptions) before leaving the lineup. Collectively, they will supply Manning with numerous weapons, upon his return.

But when will that occur?  It appears that even Manning does not know when he will be ready. Therefore, while he has now thrown for over 4,000 yards in 11 of the past 12 seasons, and every year since 2006, that number is obviously in jeopardy. The Colts must activate Manning from the PUP list by the final roster deadline (September 3), otherwise, he will not be eligible to play for six more weeks.  

Once he does rejoin the huddle, it is incumbent upon Indy’s line to protect him. After years of emphasizing mobility among their linemen, the Colts are now favoring larger players, who are still searching for stability during their transition process. That is another definite concern for potential owners who are considering selecting Manning.

So where does not leave his fantasy value? Originally, it would have been reasonable to place him in a tier with Tom Brady and Drew Brees, with all three QBs essentially even, and all just below Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick. Now, he should fall just below Brady, Brees, and also Philip Rivers, but still above Tony Romo, and the next group of signal callers that comprise subsequent tiers.

But owners should not let him fall beyond that point in their drafts. Peyton Manning is also far too adept of a technician to be dramatically impacted on a weekly basis, once he fully regains his health. It is unrealistic to believe that he will suddenly lose his ability to excel as a pure passer, strategist, and team leader. He still possesses a sufficient number of targets. And even though the running game will struggle, he has not enjoyed the luxury of a potent ground game since 2004, and has managed to excel nonetheless. If he falls to you in round three, take him. And be thankful for your good fortune.

photo: Sports Chrome

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As a life long Minnesota Vikings fan I have seen a lot of disappointment.  I am not old enough to remember the Super Bowl losses, but have vivid memories of a number of NFC Championship defeats.  While Vikings fans have nothing on fans of teams like the Chicago Cubs or Detroit Lions – the Vikings have has some success – this franchise knows how to break hearts.

The list of near misses is long and particularly gut wrenching.  The best Vikings’ seasons don’t end normally.  It would be a relief if next time they get to an NFC championship game they simply loose in a normal way.  Darren Nelson in the 1987 NFC Championship game , Gary Anderson’s one missed field goal that would have sealed the win over the Falcons that they ended up losing in overtime in 1998, the humiliating defeat at the hands of the Giants that Minnesota fans grudgingly call 41 doughnut in 2000 and finally the multiple turnover, twelve men in the huddle, Brett Favre ill-advised interception loss in the 2010 NFC Championship game,is how Minnesota ends its’ successful seasons.

The franchise has had its share of off the field drama as well.  They had a string of DWIs in the 80’s, and more recently they had the Love Boat scandal and the infamous Wizzenator drama.  That being said, outside of the Kory Stringer tragedy in training camp, the 2010-11 season might have been worst in the fifty year history of the team.

Going into the season it was hard not to feel optimistic.  The organization was planning big fifty year anniversary events.  They were going to have the Fifty Greatest Vikings come in for a celebration at half-time of a late season game.  They were returning nearly everyone off of last year’s team, but of course the season started with the yearly Favre retirement drama.  That was followed by Sidney Rice’s injury that would keep him out for the first half of the season.  Not getting surgery in the offseason ultimately would be a key component in the strange Vikings season.

Defensively the team started out solid, but the offense would struggle all year.   Taking Rice out of the offense exposed Favre and the offensive line.  The quarterback didn’t jell with his new receivers and held the ball too long.  The offensive line was largely ineffective and eventually injured.  As the season wore on the defense became more and more ineffective.

Off the field things got even more dysfunctional.  Because Rice was still recovering from surgery and Percy Harvin, who once collapsed during practice because of migraine headaches, was in and out with that aliment, Randy Moss was brought back from New England.  After a few effective but uneven games he started clashing with the coaches and then berated local restaurant employees that were catering in food for the team.  Despite the fan base enthusiasm for the move, the Moss experiment quickly ended, but the drama was just beginning.

We found out what a great family man Favre is with the sexual harassment allegations that would keep less people talking about the balls Favre was throwing on the feel and more people talking about the b . .  .  on second thought I better not. 

As the losses mounted, the constant Favre/head coach Brad Childress behind the scenes battle rumors intensified.  Players were talking to out of town press about how much they hated the coach.  Ownership finally put him out of his misery when Childress was fired and defensive coordinator Lesley Frasier was hired as the intern head coach.  The team started to play a little better, but the season continued to appear that it was straight out of the Twilight Zone.

The iconic visual from the season was the Metrodome collapsing under the weight of one of the many snowstorms of the winter.  Unable to play at their home stadium the team was forced to play a home game in Detroit followed by a Monday night Bear’s game which like the rest of the season was more interesting because of what happened off the field instead of the garbage that was the product being put on the field.  Management and the NFL decided to play the team’s final home game at TCF Bank Stadium, a new outdoor stadium that normally is the home to the Minnesota Gopher football team.  During the lead up to the game the Vikings were literally pulling people off the street – as long as you could bring your own shovel – to get paid to shovel the snow out of the stadium.  Ironically the Fifty Greatest Viking halftime celebration had to take place outside in a snow storm where the former players played most of their careers and looked more comfortable in the elements than the current players.

At this point, the only real reason to pay attention to the Vikings was to watch Favre play out his historic career, but true to this seasons form, fans were not able to see it. In nineteen previous seasons, nothing could get number four off the field.  Even one of the greatest individual streaks in the history of team sports could not survive this season when Favre was injured, missed his first game in years, tried to come back the next week and was hurt again, ending his season.

The season started with Super Bowl hopes ended with a team without a home, without a coach and with a rookie who was drafted to play wide receiver starting at quarterback.   It all added up to one of the worst, but most entertaining seasons of Vikings football.

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NFL Quick News & Notes

• Brett Favre- QB Minnesota Vikings
  The NFL fined Brett Favre $50,000 for failing to cooperate with its investigation of inappropriate messages and lewd photos that he allegedly sent to a former New York Jets game-day employee.
• Maurice Jones-Drew – RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
  FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer confirms that Maurice Jones-Drew needs surgery on his right knee, but is holding off on the procedure in hopes that the Jaguars qualify for the playoffs.
• Jamaal Charles – RB, Kansas City Chiefs
  Jamaal Charles indicated that anticipates playing extensively in Week 17 in hopes of winning the NFL’s rushing title
• John Skelton – QB, Arizona Cardinals
  Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic “would not be surprised at all” if the Cardinals bring in only a stopgap-type veteran to compete with rookie John Skelton at quarterback for 2011.
• Matt Forte – RB, Chicago Bears
  Bears coach Lovie Smith reiterated strongly Wednesday that he will be playing all of his starters in Week 17.
• Stewart Bradley – MLB, Philadelphia Eagles
  Eagles MLB Stewart Bradley (dislocated elbow) remains on track to be ready for the postseason.
• Clinton Portis - RB, Washington Redskins
  Portis indicated he’s not willing to take a pay cut to return to the Redskins.
• Michael Vick – QB, Philadelphia Eagles
  Eagles coach Andy Reid has indicated that Michael Vick (quad) and other starters will likely sit out in Week 17.
• Matt Hasselbeck - QB, Seattle Seahawks
  Seahawks coach Pete Carroll reiterated Wednesday that Matt Hasselbeck (hip, flute) is unlikely to play in Week 17.

Aquamarine Ring

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• Anthony Adams – DT, Chicago Bears
  A source told the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs that the Bears are trying to sign NT Anthony Adams and SS Daniel Manning to extensions.
• Sergio Kindle – LB, Baltimore Ravens
  Ravens LB had over twice the legal limit in his system and failed all sobriety tests given by police when he was charged with drunken driving over the weekend.
• Wes Welker – WR, New England Patriots
  Greg Bedard of the Boston Globe suggests that Wes Welker could be one of the select Patriots starters to see limited snaps in Week 17.
• Joe Joseph – DT, Washington Redskins
  Redskins DE Joe Joseph was arrested at 3AM Monday morning on suspicion of DUI.
• Marion Barber – RB, Dallas Cowboys
  As it turns out, Cowboys RB Marion Barber was not benched following a 15-yard penalty for excessive celebration in Week 16.
• Brett Favre – QB, Minnesota Vikings
  ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio reports that the Vikings do not plan to give Brett Favre another concussion test prior to Tuesday night’s game.
• Mike Tolbert – RB, San Diego Chargers
  NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora reports that all initial tests are negative on Mike Tolbert after the Chargers’ running back/fullback suffered a scary injury in the first quarter of Sunday’s loss.
• Matt Hasselbeck – QB, Seattle Seahawks
  In his post-game press conference Sunday, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll described Matt Hasselbeck’s hip injury as “unusual.”

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NFL Picks Week 16

It seems that the crew is torn on a few games in week 16, but for the most part the home teams look to play huge favorites. Brett Favre won’t be playing Sunday night, making the Monday Night game Falcons vs. Saints, the only real watch-able prime time match-up of the four games. It’s odd that the Vikings would be flexed to prime time game for the pure reason of a possible Mike Vick vs. Brett Favre meeting. With all wildcard hopefuls and must win situations, you’d think that a game that meant something would out-weigh big name QB’s, go figure.

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Vikings Juggle Starting Line-ups
From an all ground game to a passing snow-attack, the Minnesota Vikings have made a recent change to tonights starting line-up on Monday Night Football.

At quarterback Old Man Winter Brett Favre will be starting in place of third string Joe Webb. But what is more shocking, and possibly the worst news ever for Fantasy owners (or best  news depending on your situation) is that Adrian Peterson will not play tonight. Rookie Toby Gerhart will start at tailback.

The spread for tonights game dropped by 3 points once the news broke. The Bears were 9 point favorites, but now the line is 6.

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He never had a chance.

When the Minnesota Vikings fired Brad Childress Monday after a humiliating 35-3 home defeat to the division rival Green Bay Packers it was the end of a rocky road that could not possibly end well.  The way the season was shaping up, Childress’ firing felt more like an owner putting down the three legged dog that couldn’t see anymore.   It was inevitable.   The signs were everywhere, but the final straw in Childress’ coffin was the same guy who got him a contract extension just one year ago – Brett Favre.

Childress came into an impossible situation.  The team was coming off a season that included a serious injury to former Pro Bowl quarterback Daunte Cullpepper and the infamous ‘Love Boat’ scandal.  Childress came in and had to clean house.  To his credit up until this season the team improved its record every year he was in charge.  Some of that – most if you ask his critics – was because of significant upgrades up and down the roster.

Ever since Ziggy Wilf purchased the team the Wilf’s main goal was to get a new stadium in place.  In order to do that he knows he needs the support of a stubborn legislature.  That means getting the support of the people to push the state government to pony up what the Wilf’s need to get a stadium.  With fan support almost more important than victories, Childress was the wrong guy from the start.

Minnesota’s fans were coming off years of characters as the head coach.  Mike Tice, Dennis Green and Jerry Burns were nothing if they weren’t good for a quote or some controversy.  Childress is the exact opposite of his predecessors.  He is dry and seems lifeless in front of the camera.  The public, were used to Tice saying basically anything and the circus that followed Green, never took to Chilly.  Not liking the product on the field would have been the death of a stadium deal and with the lease on Mall of America Field (Metrodome) ending soon the clock was ticking.

Despite a better record every year on the field, the team was leveling off.  A big reason for that was the play at quarterback.  Tarvaris Jackson was handed the job in his second year in the league and was uneven at best.  Better suited as a number two quarterback, Jackson was force fed to the fans in part because Childress traded up to get him in the draft.  Jackson was to be Childress’ project and the quarterback of the future.  With a quickly aging roster, the Vikings needed an established quarterback now.  The Vikings had veteran talent across the roster and they could not afford to wait for Jackson to develop any longer.  Enter on his white horse Brett Favre.

Year one of the Favre project was an obvious success.  The team was winning and most importantly the public was in love with the team again.  A Super Bowl would have been a slam dunk for the Wilf family and their desire to get a new stadium, but the signs of trouble for Childress started even before the NFC Championship game.

The team sort of staggered into the playoffs and blew a chance at home field advantage by losing three inexcusable games on the road.  When Favre and Childress’ argument on the sidelines played out on national television during a Sunday night loss to Carolina it was a preview of what was inevitably coming.

Favre obviously didn’t respect Childress.  From day one in Minnesota, Favre would refer to Childress not as ‘Coach’ like all of his teammates, but Brad.  He refused to allow Childress to even bring up taking him out of the Carolina game – which might have been justified one to keep Favre from getting killed and two to possibly spark a punch-less offense that night.  Favre even openly waved off substitution packages he didn’t like in the middle of games.

Most of that was easy to overlook in number four’s first year in purple.  Year two has not been so kind.  An out of sync offense, led by an out of sync quarterback has not put up any consistent numbers this year.  There has been a revolving door at wide receiver and the offensive line has not been nearly as consistent as it was last season.  The defense was able to keep the team in games early, but problems in the secondary and a significant drop off from the front four have worn on a once elite defense.

With all the problems around him Favre had to be as good as he was last year.  The problem was his body was finally starting to betray him.  He still has that arm, but his mobility in the pocket is no longer there.  Even when a simple three yard scramble is the best play to be made – like during his interception at the end of regulation in the NFC championship game – Favre has been unwilling, or unable to do it.  A number of his interceptions could have been avoided if he was able to tuck the ball away and run.

From what everyone has seen of Favre throughout his career, it was obvious the only way he would ever retire would be when his body broke down to the point where he couldn’t perform anymore.  Like most great athletes, the drop off doesn’t happen slowly.  The end comes crashing down.  As Favre came crashing down, so did Childress.

Childress was in a no win situation from the start.  The public was never going to like him and Favre consistently fanned those flames.  As soon as the team started to slip the fans were going to be all over Childress.  The ownership couldn’t have that.  In the end, Childress had only one opportunity to succeed long-term in Minnesota.  That opportunity started to slip away in New Orleans last January and Brett Favre’s poor play and lack of leadership made sure that opportunity didn’t come back this season.

Brad Childress never had a chance.

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Sidney Rice To Play Harvin To Shine

Fantasy owners have had this wide receiver gem on the bench for 10 NFL weeks now. So without a doubt, news of Sidney Rice playing Sunday will get more than a few fantasy people excited. Yet, the rust from the time off and the high expectations for Rice to jump back into sync with a struggling Brett Favre, some may wonder when this sleeping Viking will be save to use in fantasy football?

Obviously this first game back against the Packers is very high risk. Frankly we’re not even sure if Favre’s favorite 2009 target is ready to play at all. Vikings coach Brad Childress said that the team would place Rice on injured reserve if he didn’t play Sunday, forcing an almost certain incentive to suit up.

Either way, the Packers will not take any chances with Sidney Rice’s in his first week back. Rice should see coverage from Charles Woodson most of the day. So if the Packers play him tough and draw their best defender towards him, Sidney Rice then leads to the role of a decoy, so to speak. Sidney Rice a lot like Randy Moss, he is a star wide receiver that demands top coverage. Defense’s need to take account for where he is on the field regardless of a recovering injury. My point is, if the top receiver element is reintroduced into the Vikings offense, Percy Harvin should have a big day.

Percy Harvin is not meant to stand alone in a NFL offense. His skill-type compares to those of a Wes Welker, Steve Smith (NYG) or even Reggie Bush. Harvin is a speedy mis-match that work in certain situations. If Sidney Rice can establish an early rapport and get the attention of the defense, Percy Harvin should have see great fantasy production this Sunday. As for the return of number #18, Rice should make a few plays early that will get you pumped about a fantasy playoff push, but as far as starting him in week 11, I’d wait and see first.

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NEw News And Notes

• Brett Favre – QB, Minnesota Vikings
  Jenn Sterger was expected to meet with the NFL this week to discuss Brett Favre’s text and voicemails, but it’s not going to happen after all.
• Anthony Gonzalez - WR, Indianapolis Colts
  According to ESPN.com’s John Clayton, Anthony Gonzalez’s left knee injury is to the PCL after taking a “cheap shot” from Texans SS Bernard Pollard Monday night.
• Randy Moss – WR, Tennessee Titans
  Randy Moss reportedly told Vikings owner Zigy Wilf and several other team executives “in no uncertain terms” that Brad Childress was not a good coach and needed to be fired.
• Clay Matthews – LB, Green Bay Packers
  Coach Mike McCarthy is holding OLB Clay Matthews out of practice this week, but the NFL’s sack leader will play Sunday against the Cowboys.
• Antonio Gates – TE, San Diego Chargers
  Coach Norv Turner remains unsure of Antonio Gates’ (plantar fascia) availability for Sunday’s game.
• Dez Bryant - WR, Dallas Cowboys
  Dez Bryant unofficially played in 80.5 percent of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps last week.
• Colt McCoy - QB, Cleveland Browns
  Coach Eric Mangini suggested Thursday that Colt McCoy will make a third straight start for the Browns.
• Beanie Wells – RB, Arizona Cardinals
  Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic expects Beanie Wells (knee) to be a game-time decision this week.
• James Jones – WR, Green Bay Packers
  Packers WR James Jones is begging for more consistent opportunities in the Packers’ passing game going forward.
• Tashard Choice – RB, Dallas Cowboys
  Although he’s not sure of his exact role, Tashard Choice expects to be a part of the Cowboys’ backfield rotation Sunday for the first time since September.

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