Indianapolis Colts 2009 Preview

The Indianapolis Colts head into the 2009 season with a few changes, the biggest one being the loss of their head coach, Tony Dungy. NFL odds makers aren’t sure how to react to the move quite yet. Dungy transformed the Colts from a perennial playoff team to a perennial Super Bowl contender, and some people are wondering how this defense will perform without Dungy around. With Peyton Manning still on the roster, the bottom line is that the Colts are the team to beat in the AFC North and they are a team to respect when it comes to Super Bowl odds.

Offseason Transactions

The Colts were fairly status quo in the off-season but they did make a few tweaks. Gone is Marvin Harrison, whom fantasy players know was no longer of any value to the Colts.

The newest weapon on offense will be first-round pick running back Donald Brown, who could be in line for lots of work. He’ll share carries to start with the injury-prone Joseph Addai, but expect Brown to win the starting job by mid season.

Offense

Heading into the 2008 season, the Colts had plenty of question marks on offense. Peyton Manning was recovering from a knee problem and the Colts had a string of injuries to their offensive line.

Those issues are not present this year, which is why many people are more comfortable making them the winner of the South with their NFL predictions. With Brown in the fold, the Colts should have a much improved rushing attack. The Colts were very unbalanced last year and ended up relying on Manning and the passing game too much.

Fantasy players should keep an eye on Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark, who could be in for huge seasons now that Harrison is completely out of the way. With Reggie Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez, Addai, Brown, and Manning, this is still one of the most dangerous units in the NFL.

Defense

People making their sports picks aren’t sure what to make of the Colts defense. They’ve used anonymous parts for a few years now but Dungy coached them up into a respectable unit. They always looked like they would be a leaky unit but they managed to do just enough. Will that continue? Bob Sanders is once again injured and is doubtful for the start of the season while his fellow safety Antoine Bethea just recovered from a broken hand. This defense should still be reliable this year but look for it to fade as the mastermind is no longer around.

Outlook

The Titans are still limited by Kerry Collins, the Jaguars are in no-man’s land, and the  Texans can never seem to put it together. The NFL week 1 odds have the Colts favored, and they should be regularly throughout the year. Everybody’s talking about Brady and the Pats or Big Ben and the Steelers while the Colts are sneaking under the radar.

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Philadelphia Eagles 2009 Preview

As the saying goes: the game is played on the field, not on paper.

If there ever was a team that looked great on paper but didn’t reciprocate with the Championships, it would be the Philadelphia Eagles. NFL odds makers know that they haven’t been short on regular season wins this decade but have never won a Super Bowl. Coming close only counts with horseshoes and hand grenades, so if the Eagles want to win it all they’ll have to fix their short yardage game and be more of a threat in the redzone, both could be fixed with smarter play calling.
Off-season Transactions

The Eagles did some renovations in the off season, which should have plenty of fantasy implications. They upgraded their offensive line by acquiring Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews, but they will take some time to gel. The Eagles added some offensive depth in the draft with first-round pick Jeremy Maclin and second-round pick LeSean McCoy, but their most underrated acquisition might be fullback Leonard Weaver, who can help in their areas of need in the red zone and 3rd and shorts.

The media is making Michael Vick out to be the greatest weapon the Eagles picked up, but we are still waiting on a decision on when he can play in the regular season; rumors are that the Commissioner will announce a decision on Monday.
The Eagles lost quite a bit on defense, including safety Brian Dawkins and cornerback Lito Sheppard. The balance on this team has clearly shifted to the offense. Nonetheless, the Eagles are the sportsbook favorite to win the NFC so they view the changes as positive.

Offense

The Birds have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL but the problem is the coaching staff. Andy Reid and Marty Mornigweg continually choose the pass over the run, which simply fails to bring the proper balance. The Eagles were horrible in short yardage situations last year and unless they run the ball with more frequency throughout the year, they’ll find it hard to find a rhythm.

Michael Vick will add the Wildcat flavor to this offense but several members of the offense have already complained that the Wildcat throws the offense out of sync – including Donovan McNabb. There appears to be some friction between the two quarterbacks and how to divide the playing time. Having McNabb on the field to block seems pointless, same with having Vick line up as a receiver. Gridiron Experts has more faith in the leagues top defensive coordinators than a circus offense like the Wildcat, we believe it will be scratched out of many play books by December.

Defense

The typically strong Eagles defense is a wait and see on how they’ll respond after the passing of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. Johnson was the genius behind the Eagles high-pressure schemes but now Sean McDermott takes over. There will be a drop-off.

On top of the Eagles personnel losses in the off-season, the team also suffered a big blow when leading tackler Stewart Bradley tore his ACL and was lost for the year. That’s a lot of defense to lose. Most NFL predictions have this defense finishing in the Top 10 again, but those losses are significant enough to drop them to middle of the pack.

Outlook

The Eagles look good on paper but that might be where it ends. While most people criticize the Arizona Cardinals for getting hot at the end of the season and making a late playoff run, the Eagles were very mediocre in November, especially after they played to a tie with the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Eagles could be good if they ran the ball more and if their defense holds up, but until we know the answers to those questions, we can’t seriously back them on the Super Bowl odds.

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2009 Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers endured the toughest schedule in NFL history and came out Super Bowl champs. After a quiet offseason – relative to their last offseason following a Super Bowl win – NFL odds makers are expecting a level of consistency from the Steelers. Except for the Ravens, the NFC North lacks some real competition for the Steelers. With most of their Super Bowl team intact, the Steelers should win the division once more and make another stab at the Super Bowl.

Offseason Transactions

Aside from losing wide receiver Nate Washington and cornerback Bryant McFadden, the Steelers had a very quiet offseason. That’s great news considering the last time they won the Super Bowl, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a motorcycle accident, head coach Bill Cowher retired along with running back Jerome Bettis and Santonio Holmes had some legal problems.

Offense

Minus the loss of Washington, who was a sparingly used wide receiver (40 receptions), the Steelers return the same offense intact. Last year, there were concerns about the Steelers makeshift offensive line and they struggled early on, but the fact that they are back together in their second season starting as a unit should mean improved protection.

A lot of fantasy players are keeping their eyes on the running game, in particular 2008 first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall. It’s questionable what type of impact he’ll have but regardless of who is in the backfield, the Steelers will run the ball.

In the passing game, fantasy production is thin simply because the Steelers are a run oriented defensive team. Both Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are a solid tandem in reality but given Ward’s age and Holmes Super Bowl MVP, which is driving up his value in drafts, both are overrated.

Defense

A lot of NFL predictions are listing the Steelers as the best defense in the NFL and it’s hard to argue with it. There is plenty of consistency and they even have something they have been missing over the past couple of seasons: depth.

On the defensive line, the Steelers spent a first-round pick on Ziggy Hood and are now two-deep everywhere. At linebacker, Larry Foote has been subtracted but the Steelers are a linebacker factory and have plenty of depth to spare.

All-around, this will again be a physical, smash mouth defense. Without question, they are the best in the AFC.

Outlook

The Steelers are a favorite in the week 1 odds when they face the respected Tennessee Titans and they’ll likely be a favorite weekly. There’s no doubt that this team is capable of another Super Bowl run, especially given how much consistency and carryover there is from last year. Look for them to run into the New England Patriots at some point as the Super Bowl winner is likely to come from the AFC.

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New York Giants 2009 Preview

As we get ready for Week 1, we take a look at the New York Giants, who have lost in the first round in the playoffs in three of the last four seasons. Of course, the year they went further was capped with an unlikely Super Bowl win. Do the Giants have enough to return to the big game?
Offseason Transactions
The Giants released Plaxico Burress due to his legal troubles (Burress received two years in jail for shooting himself in the leg), while Derrick Ward left for the No.1 running back role in Tampa Bay, or at least that’s what he thinks. There were no new major additions to the Giants through free agency, which may hurt with their inability to land a No.1 receiver to replace Burress.
Offense
Eli Manning signed a massive contract, yet he must be worried about the lack of receiving options. Rookie Hakeem Nicks has all the talent in the world, but he’s taking some time to get used to the rigors of NFL life. This means the Giants’ chances could lie with a ground game that was tops in the league in 2008, led by bruising back Brandon Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw is a big change from Jacobs, and these two should again keep the opposition off balance. Still, the Giants need a receiver to come to the forefont, and make Manning earn that big-money contract.
Defense
The Giants were fifth in the NFL last year in defense, and now they have Osi Umenyiora back and healthy. Umenyiora and Justin Tuck will terrorize quarterbacks all season long, but a hamstring injury to fellow defensive lineman Chris Canty is worrying. Antonio Pierce is looking to put the distractions of the offseason behind him and lead a linebacking corps that has more depth than talent. The secondary is underrated, and Corey Webster and Aaron Ross are as good a corner duo as you’ll find in the league.
Outlook
Betting odds have the Giants just behind Philadelphia in the NFC East at +180, +450 to win the NFC, and +800 to take the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. The Giants’ defense won’t be a problem: in fact, they should be better than last year. The pressure will be on the receivers to step up and give Manning a target. The ground game will hold up their end of the bargain, and this will lead to low-scoring games, but the Giants currently have no one to stretch the defense. They’ll be good enough to make the playoffs, but another first-round exit looms unless a wideout steps up. When it comes to Super Bowl NFL picks, stay away from the Giants for now.

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Miami Dolphins 2009 Preview

Bill Parcells helped the Miami Dolphins orchestrate one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history last year, and while the team will be just as good – if not better – personnel wise this year, NFL odds makers aren’t expecting them to win as many games because of their daunting schedule. The Dolphins have done a good job of building their roster in the offseason but the league’s toughest schedule will keep them from making back-to-back playoff appearances.

Offseason Transactions

The Dolphins had a few minor things to accomplish in the offseason and they checked pretty much everything off the list. They needed to rebuild their secondary and they did a good job of cycling out mediocre parts like Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, and replacing them with quality talent like Gibril Wilson and draft picks Sean Smith and Vontae Davis.
When Jason Taylor became available to them, they quickly snapped him up and brought him back.

On offense, the Dolphins could have used some more receiving weapons but instead they invested in their offensive line by signing Jake Grove.

Offense

The offense will flow through the running game once again and although many fantasy players are skeptical of Ronnie Brown since he’s sharing carries with Ricky Williams, the reality is that Brown is in the best shape of his career and is another year removed from his major knee injury.

Although the Dolphins didn’t make wholesale changes to the receiving corps, the talent is already in place and simply needs to grow. Ted Ginn Jr. is among many NFL picks to be a breakout candidate this year while Davin Bess, who is now starting opposite of Ginn Jr., has some real potential. Bess had 37 catches in the final seven weeks of the season.

The Dolphins aren’t explosive on offense but they are effective. They don’t turn it over very often and they make the smart plays.

Defense

The Dolphins defense should be vastly improved as the team reconstructed the secondary. Will Allen and Yeremiah Bell are good quality holdovers while Wilson was an absolute steal for the Dolphins in free agency.

If the rookies Smith and Davis can hammer down the other cornerback spot, the Dolphins secondary should be significantly more sound.

In the front seven, the Dolphins have been strong but the addition of Taylor should give them a boost. Parcells has been building up the depth in the front seven and this underrated unit should be very good this year.

Outlook

Talent-wise, the Dolphins are better than last year but that doesn’t mean they are worth a look on the Super Bowl odds. Their schedule is very difficult. To give you a taste, here is how their season starts:

@ ATL, vs IND, @ SD, BUF, NYJ, BYE, @ NO, @NYJ, @ NE.

Aside from the Buffalo Bills, who are supposed to be improved, the Dolphins will play seven of their first eight games against teams who were all .500 or better .The projection for the Dolphins in the sportsbook world is approximately eight wins and given their schedule, they might even have a tough time getting to that number.

Fantasy Football:

Green Bay Packers 2009 Preview

While the Vikings and Bears are the talk of the town, NFL odds makers like a different team in the NFC North: the Green Bay Packers. Having arguably one of the best offenses in the division (even with Farve back), an improved defense, and excellent coaching, the Packers might be able to make the Lambeau Leap back into first place.

Off-season Transaction

The Packers didn’t make a ton of personnel changes in the off-season but they did make a few tweaks. The biggest change will be at defensive coordinator, where Dom Capers takes over and will employ the 3-4 scheme. Newcomers on the team are critically acclaimed draft picks B.J. Raji (first-round) and Clay Matthews (second-round). Aside from that, the Packers roster is very much status quo.

Offense

Anyone who was betting last year knows that the Packers offense was not the problem. They scored points in bunches and carried the defense through many of their games. With the entire unit back virtually intact, this offense figures to get even stronger and more gelled in 09.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a breakout fantasy year last season, and while his numbers were impressive, improvement in the fourth quarter of games could really push the Packers to the next level. Ryan Grant is running hard and looks healthy, and all signs point to a bigger year for many fantasy players on this team. With a season under his belt as the starter Rodgers should have less pressure to carry this team and be able to find a comfortable rhythm that will allow Green Bay to dictate the flow of a game.

With one of the deepest, most versatile crops of wideouts in the game, there really aren’t any question marks surrounding this offense. An upgrade at tight end would have been nice, but outside of that this unit is complete.

Defense

Many people assume that the Packers defense will again be horrible, mainly because a switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4 usually takes a good year to make the transition. The Packers appear more prepared than a usual team in this case mainly due to the fact that they have two nose tackles in Raji and Ryan Pickett. The key to any successful 3-4 defense is the big ugly in the middle of that line. The Packers should be stout up front while their linebackers are somewhat solid if Aaron Kampman can make the transition to outside linebacker.

The real worry is that one of the Packers older cornerbacks (Charles Woodson or Al Harris) will break down this season, leaving a real lack of depth to fill in. While their backups aren’t the greatest, things aren’t as bad as people are making it out to be. There are more than a few capable DB’s of holding their own if the frontlines can generate pressure.

Outlook

While everyone is pointing to the Bears as a sleeper and talking about the Vikings as a Super Bowl contender, the Packers are flying under the radar in the North.

The offense should be stronger while the defense simply can’t be any worse. They aren’t popular among sports picks to win this division but don’t be surprised if they do. They could be the most complete team in the North.

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Seattle Seahawks 2009 Preview

The Seattle Seahawks had a disastrous 2008 season. The good news is that their failures were due to injuries and not deterioration in talent. Many NFL odds makers know that the Seahawks could be in line for a big turnaround this season now that they’re healthy. With the additions of T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Corey Redding and Aaron Curry, the Seahawks could do more than just compete in the NFC West; they could be shaping up to be a real quiet sleeper in the NFC.

Offseason Transactions

The Seahawks had a busy offseason and a lot of their moves made sense.

Signing T.J. Houshmanzadeh was smart as the receiving core in Seattle was  pathetic although they might regret overpaying the 32-year-old later on in the deal. Nonetheless, the Seahawks also acquired stud defensive tackle Corey Redding in a deal with the Detroit Lions in which they shipped off Julian Peterson. The Seahawks also signed Ken Lucas who played in Seattle a couple years ago. Lucas struggled outside of Seattle and will be welcomed home. The Seahawks really hasn’t been as strong since both Lucas and Marcus Trufant started together in 2004.

Lastly but not least head coach Jim Mora now takes over for Mike Holmgren, who has since retired. Big shoes to fill but Mora has the know how to succed in this offense

Offense

The Seahawks simply aren’t the same team without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, But the good news is he is healthy after an injury-plagued season and is ready to right the ship.The running game should be much stronger if the offensive line holds up. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has a history of making running backs flourish and Julius Jones is capable of being a 1000-yard rusher in his system.

The Seahawks have plenty of weapons in the passing game with Houshmanzadeh, and healthy Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and second-year tight end John Carlson.Hasselbeck has plenty of weapons to work with – maybe even more than he had when he went to the Super Bowl

Defense

Many people don’t take the Seahawks Super Bowl odds seriously but they should because this defense could be Championship-worthy. For starters, the Seahawks defensive line could be among the best in the business. Ends Patrick Kerney, Daryl Tapp and Lawrence Jackson form a good rotation while Redding adds a Pro Bowl presence in the middle of the line, which has been lacking for a while.

At linebacker, the Seahawks again are very strong with Curry, LeRoy Hill and Pro Bowler Lofa Tatupu. In the secondary, there are no qualms as well as the cornerback crop is as deep as it has been in a long time. Believe it or not, but the defense in Seattle might be stronger than the offense.

Outlook

In the NFC West, this is clearly the most talented team with maybe the acception of Arizona. Not many NFL experts list this team as the winner in the West or a potential NFC Champion but the Seahawks do have that type of potential.

If the offense can work out some of the kinks, such as the running game and the offensive line, this team could be a real power player in the NFC. At worst, they should still roll to another NFC West crown.

Fantasy Football:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2009 Preview

Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl hopes are grim as can be. The Buccaneers lost some crucial defensive leaders and will rely on unproven or ineffective quarterbacking to lead this team. While the Buc’s are young and have potential, this season will be long and hard to watch for fans. Rebuilding can happen over night,  but don’t be surprised if  the Buc’s are one of the worst team’s in the NFC in 09.

Offseason Transactions

You can’t say Tampa didn’t try this offseason, particularly on offense. There’s nothing wrong with their acquisitions of Kellen Winslow Jr. at tight end and Derrick Ward, who has little mileage on his frame, at running back. The Bucs lost Jeff Garcia, so they signed Byron Leftwich and drafted Josh Freeman in the first round.

Key Position Battles

The most important position battles for the Bucs are on offense. At quarterback, Luke McCown reportedly has the inside track on Leftwich and Freeman. While it’s understandable that Freeman needs time to develop, I wouldn’t count on McCown beating out Leftwich, even though he’s a statue, Leftwich is just a bit more polished and experienced.

At running back, Earnest Graham appears at No. 1 on the depth chart but the Bucs didn’t sign Derrick Ward to be a backup, so betting on Ward to win the job is a smart idea.

Offense

On paper, the Bucs look better than they’ll turn out to be. Winslow and Ward should be solid contributors, and Antonio Bryant busted out in 2008, but the loss of Jeff Garcia should seriously hurt the passing game. Bryant in particular shouldn’t come anywhere near last year’s numbers. Ward, Graham and Cadillac Williams form a fine stable of backs, but the Bucs will see more eight-man fronts this season with their quarterbacking so weak. Also, the young, budding O-line may have lost an important pillar, as Aaron Sears has left the team, possibly because of an old head injury. There’s no timetable for his return.

Defense

In 2009, the true talent of this unit gets put to the test. Perennial Pro Bowler Derrick Brooks is gone and, as is the case with Brian Dawkins’ departure in Philadelphia, that could have an effect on the defense that no sportsbook software can project. Equally important; the Bucs lost defensive co-ordinator Monte Kiffin, engineer of the speedy, versatile, ball-hawk defense that helped Tampa win a Super Bowl in 2002. With a somewhat underwhelming group of playmakers remaining, it will be interesting to see if the Bucs’ defense, with ranked ninth overall in 2008, can excel again. Remember, Tampa’s defenders should be on the field longer every game because of the shaky quarterbacking.

Outlook
The Bucs’ odds for an instant turn around are terrible in our opinion. They added some offensive weapons but won’t maximize their potential with Garcia gone. That puts more pressure on the defense and I’m not sure it can handle the potent offenses of division mates New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina with Brooks and Kiffin flying the coop.

Fantasy Football:

New York Jets 2009 Preview

NFL odds are up for 2009 and few football betting experts can agree on what the New York Jets’ fate will be in 2009. On one hand, an already-solid defense gained a bunch of key personnel in the offseason and the running game is deep. On the other hand, they’ll likely depend on a rookie quarterback to carry the passing game. Can the “D” support the offense until Mark Sanchez gets comfortable?

Offseason Transactions

The Jets were among the NFL’s busiest teams this offseason and the defense in particular has some noteworthy newcomers. Former Pro-Bowl cornerback Lito Sheppard may not be the same player as he was in Philadelphia, but he’s a welcome addition to the secondary. Linebacker Bart Scott was expensive to poach from Baltimore but he should pay immediate dividends. The biggest addition of all may be new head coach Rex Ryan, who was highly successful as Baltimore’s defensive co-ordinator.

Offensively, the Jets built through the draft, drafting inexperienced but highly touted leader Mark Sanchez third overall to be their franchise quarterback. A less hyped pick who could have an impact this year is running back Shonn Greene, who is a thicker RB than Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and could get goal line work.

Key Position Battles

There are plenty of positions up for grabs in New York this offseason. Obviously, the big question is whether or not Mark Sanchez can beat out Kellen Clemens for the starting job. I wouldn’t bet against it happening, Yes, he only started one year at USC, but it was a year to remember for NCAA football as he established himself as true leader on and off the field. Sanchez reportedly already took on a similar role in Jets minicamp, rallying the offense to learn the system.

Don’t forget, Rex Ryan witnessed Joe Flacco’s rookie season in Baltimore, so he’s open to handing a rookie the reins. And it’s not like Kellen Clemens hasn’t flopped already; he started half the season in 2007 and threw twice as many picks as touchdowns.

Outside linebacker has some competition, as Calvin Pace will miss the first four games of the season due to a suspension. Vernon Gholston is the favorite to replace him and could remain a starter over Bryan Thomas when Pace returns.

It’s pretty clear that Jerricho Cotchery will at least be the No. 2, but Brad Smith and Chansi Stuckey are jockeying for the other starting wide receiver job. Reportedly, Smith has the edge, as the Jets like his athleticism and want to use him on trick plays.

Offense

This entire Jets team could be a poor man’s Baltimore Ravens. No matter who gets the rock, NFL prediction makers should expect the Jets to run the football well. Thomas Jones is versatile and tougher than he gets credit for, while Leon Washington is among the sport’s most explosive backs.

Whoever starts behind center for the Jets has a tall order this season. The receiving corps loses stability without Laveranues Coles and while tight end Dustin Keller looks promising, he can’t catch every pass himself. The running game ranked ninth last year and should stay there in 2009, but the passing game should slide into the league’s bottom third.

Defense

There’s plenty to like about the Jets defense, which ranked seventh against the run last year and will only get better in that regard thanks to Bart Scott. Gang Green was atrocious against the pass in 2008, allowing 234.5 yards per game (29th), but Lito Sheppard should give the secondary a boost and, most importantly, Ryan should have an extremely positive influence. The “D” won’t be perfect – they’ll be tired if the offense sputters and turns the ball over often – but it certainly won’t be the problem.

Outlook

The Jets are in a strange transitional phase and most betting services don’t know what to make of them. If you’re betting on the AFC East, stick with the Pats or even the high-upside Bills. The Jets could surprise if Sanchez pans out, but they’ll struggle to play .500 football if he goes through the normal growing pains. Remember – the uber-successful 2008 rookie class was the exception, not the norm.

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