Start’em Sit’em Week 14 (Playoff Edition)

You know the drill by now, Gridiron Experts looks for great match-ups in key situations to help get you the most fantasy production. Although, this is the beginning of most peoples Fantasy Playoffs, so the deep sleepers are off the table. If you’re digging for a fantasy sleeper at this point of the season, than you can thank the stars for the easy schedule that allowed you a ticket into the post-season. Never the less, over the next few weeks we are going to try to rank the mid range players for those of you that are torn between a few of your flex options. Hope we can help

Must Starts: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Mike Vick, Joe Flacco

Good Match ups: Tom Brady, Kyle Orton, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Ryan Fitzpatrick,

Tough Match-up’s : Jay Cutler vs. the Patriots, Matt Sanchez vs. the Dolphins, Matt Schaub vs. the Ravens, Matt Cassel vs Chargers

• The Patriots are on a short week heading to Chicago, but if they can manage just half of the beating they gave Sanchez on Monday Night, then Jay Cutler’s fantasy day will be a huge let down. The Bears should have an aggressive game plan in-store for the Patriots, Chicago was almost upset by the Lions in week 13, a small hint that maybe the Bears were overlooking to this Sundays Patriot meeting. I wouldn’t expect more than 270 yards and 2 TD’s though.
• Sanchez will need to suck it up and get his mind straighten out quickly. His team is under the scrutiny of the New York media, which never allows for an easy out. The Dolphins have an above average passing defense, so I wouldn’t hope for huge numbers this week. Sit’em
• Matt Schaub has had extra time to prepare for this game. The Thursday loss to the Eagles probably stung for a little while, but seeing the Colts fall to the Cowboys gave a much needed pick-me-up to the Battle-Red. People have been saying the Texans season “comes down to this game” for weeks now, but their division has been bailing them out with losing streaks. We expect hail-mary type football Monday, if the Texans lose Monday the coaching staff gets pink slips Tuesday.
• Matt Cassel [Updated] injured

WildCards: Donovan McNabb vs. The Buccaneers, Sam Bradford vs the Saints, Alex Smith (he’s back) vs. Seahawks, Matt Hasselbeck vs. 49er’s, Jon Kitna’s vs. Eagles

If you have to start any of these quarterbacks or one that I didn’t list, set lowered expectations for the playoffs. McNabb is running with back-ups and rookies but is the more reliable of any of the wildcard QB’s. Bradford has the skills, but is facing a tough defense. I’d say Kitna, if he can get protection has the best odds of producing solid fantasy points.

Must Starts: Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Fred Jackson,

Good Start’em Match ups: Jamaal Charles, Mike Tolbert, Ray Rice, LeGarrette Blount, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Chris Ivory

Tough Match-up’s Matt Forte vs. The Patriots, Cedric Benson vs. the Steelers, Jacobs or Bradshaw vs. the Vikings, L.T or S. Greene vs. Dolphins

• When Mike Martz came to town, Forte got a boost from most fantasy guru’s with the expectation of additional receiving yards, unfortunately they were wrong. The offensive playcalling rarely has routes that checks the ball down Forte, he hasn’t had more than 40 yards receiving since week 1. The Patriots are on a hot streak and if they can take over a game early, like they did against the Jets, Cutler will take to the air leaving Forte out of the offense.
• Cedric Benson has been outplaying tough defense’s for weeks. His match-ups never seem that appealing, yet his production is usually welcomed well by fantasy owners. I wouldn’t over think this match-up, Start’em
• Here’s a riddle for you? If Brandon Jacobs is the starter, than why did Bradshaw get a season high for carries last week against the Redskins? There are two trains of thought here: A.) The game was over, so let the back-up finish up and get extra carries or B.) Jacobs isn’t really the starter, he’s just being told that to teach Bradshaw a lesson, tough love so to speak. Either the case, split carries against one of the leagues stingiest rushing defense’s is a risky start. They are too good the bench, so Start’em and hope for a shootout.
• The Jets running duo haven’t found the endzone in weeks, you’d think their overdue but people have been saying that for weeks. Expect the standard 50-80 yards each.

High Risk/ High Reward: Tim Hightower vs. the Broncos, Marshawn Lynch vs. the 49er’s, Anthony Dixon vs. the Seahwaks, Jahvid Best vs. the Packers, Javarris James (Ind) vs. the Titans

• There’s little insight to most of these players. There will be a fantasy stud here due to the match-up or situation, but the problem is you could get burned in the process of starting one of them.
• The Broncos will have a new head coach this week, which usually means a short burst of success, Denver played tough last week yet Hightower will see most of the action with Wells a real life walking band-aid.
• Lynch is a stud in very unpredictable fashion, he had an excellent week 13, but faces a tough opponent.
• Dixon and Javarris James are getting starts against poor defense’s in relief and Javid Best has speed that kills.
• Overall if I had to pick one of the bunch I’d go with Anthony Dixon, he’s bigger than Westbrook which should mean more goal-line carries, the Seahawks have also struggled against the run

There are too many must starts, so we will just  focus on players you may be torn with.

Tough Match-up’s Santana Moss vs. the Buccaneers, Terrell Owens vs. The Steelers, Donald Driver vs. The Lions, Andre Johnson vs. the Ravens, Pierre Garcon vs. the Titans

• The Redskins have little to hang their hats on these days. No one player has looked good on offense nor defense, yet the Skins still have a chance to make some media waves by potentially knocking off playoff bound teams over the next few weeks. Moss is not a great fit for McNabb, and I’m sure next year the receiving core will be replenished. Until then you are left guessing how many balls Moss will drop vs. the ones McNabb over throws, I don’t envy you. This week looks like a 70 yard day at best.
• T.O is having an excellent season, despite the Bengals record. This week looks terrible on paper but divisional spite is a powerful tool when playing spoiler. You know that feeling you get when you’re in a bad mood and you ruin someones day with it? That devilish grin is what the Bengals are after this week against the Steelers. Start’em and hope for the best.
• Why would Driver vs. the Lions be a tough decision? Maybe because last week was the guy’s first good game since week 4. Can lightning strike twice? Is Driver back to becoming a productive fantasy target? I say yes. But it’s your team you make the call. Keep in mind the history Driver has against the Lions is very impressive.
• Andre Johnson is a beast looking for prime time redemption. He, along with the Texans have had a monkey on their back for weeks. The Losing needs to end, or the season is no doubt over (see Matt Schaub)
• If Garcon was a bullet, he wouldn’t fit the gun. Being the least productive Fantasy weapon in the Peyton Manning passing attack you have to figure, by default, that he sees more action this week. The injury ward is filling up and Peyton is going threw the last of his reliable targets. I expect a high scoring “Take That” type of game Thursday night. One where Manning throws for 4 scores and still has time to look miserable on the sideline or post-game camera shot.

The Don’t Say Sleeper, Playoff Sleeper List

QB: David Garrard
RB: Ricky Williams, Mike Goodson, Thomas Jones
WR: Derrick Mason, Roy E. William, Kevin Walter
TE: Brent Celek, Rob Gronkowski, Joel Dreessen