Start’em Sit’em Week 10

Ezekiel Elliott

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Start’em Sit’em Week 10

Gridiron Experts weekly Start’em Sit’em column is usually written by Phil Clark, but as Phil mentioned in last week’s piece, he’s on vacation in New Orleans. So, unfortunately, you’re stuck with me lol. As I’m just filling in for the week, I thought I’d try something a little different for the Gridiron Experts Start’em Sit’em piece. Rather than pick out a handful of players to talk about, I thought I would do a quick recap of every game with some interesting stats.

Teams off on Byes Week 10

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Detroit Lions
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Oakland Raiders

Green Bay vs. Tennessee

Vegas Line: Packers -2.5 | Over/Under: 49

  • Ty MontgomeryMust Starts: Rodgers, Jordy, Cobb, Mariota, D.Murray, D.Walker
  • Stat to Know: Packers allow on average 75.4 rushing yards per game. They also have only given up four rushing touchdowns. It may be hard to believe, but the Packers rank 1st in the NFL in many key defensive rushing categories. If you’re in a PPR league, DeMarco Murray’s Fantasy value will remain strong, but as a pure rusher, he may have an average day.
  • Sit: Kendall Wright – Our WR projections have Wright racking up just three receptions for 55 yards.
  • Sleeper: Ty Montgomery, Rishard Matthews

Minnesota vs.Washington

Vegas Line: Redskins -3 | Over/Under: 41.5

  • Must Starts: Reed, Diggs
  • Stat to Know: The Minnesota Vikings have allowed just one pass of more than 40 yards all season.
  • Don’t Overthink It: Sam Bradford – The matchup seems like a perfect bye week replacement for Andrew Luck or Derek Carr, but Bradford hasn’t thrown more than one TD pass in his last three games.
  • WildCard: Kirk Cousins – Off a Bye Week plus his highest passing yard performance of the season (458).
  • Sleeper: Matt Asiata – The Redskins have given up 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd worst in the NFL) in 9 games.

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay

Vegas Line: Bucs -1.5 | Over/Under: 45

  • Must Starts:
    Winston, Mike Evans, C.Brate, J.Howard, A.Jeffery, Zach Miller
  • Awesome Matchup: Jay Cutler had a good game against the Vikings and is coming off a bye. He faces a Bucs defense that has surrendered 18 passing touchdowns and allows an average of 29 points per game. Surprisingly, the Over/Under is only 45 points for this contest, yet has all the makings of turning into a shootout. There is also the added fact that this could be Cutler’s last chance at remaining an NFL starter, the pressure is on as the 2-6 Bears will likely rebuild in the offseason. Cutler needs to prove he deserves to be a part of the team’s plans, or at least show that he’s worth being a leader and starting QB in the NFL.
  • Stat to Know: Neither the Bears nor the Buc’s have given up a big run all season of 40 yards or more. In fact, both teams have a bend but don’t break rushing defense. Neither team has allowed more than 4 rushing plays of 20+ yards all year.
  • Bye Week Starter: WR Adam Humphries – The Bucs are decimated at the running back position, and the team will have to lean heavy on their passing game to get by in this contest. Humphries has proven he’s worthy of the targets thrown his way.
  • Sit: Jeremy Langford – The Bears were open to a “hot hand” rotation at first, but after Howard’s performance against the Vikings, the team should give him 70-80% of the carries moving forward.

Kansas City at Carolina

Vegas Line: Panthers -2.5 | Over/Under: 44.5

  • Must Starts: Newton, K.Benjamin, G.Olsen, JSTEW, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin (INJ)
  • Stat to Know: The Carolina Panthers are tied with the Packers for allowing the least amount of rushing yards per play (3.3).
  • Sit: KC Running Backs – Ware needs to clear concussion protocol to make the trip to Charlotte this week, but even if he does he’s going up against a resurrected Panthers Defense that ranks 3rd in rushing yards against. The Panthers have been in a funk for most of the season, but are on a 2-game winning streak since coming off their bye.

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Vegas Line: Falcons -0.5 | Over/Under: 50.5

  • Must Starts: M.Ryan, Julio, D.Freeman, Sproles, J.Matthews
  • Awesome Matchup: Carson Wentz – Vegas is predicting a high scoring back and forth matchup, one in which the Eagles should be able to maximize fantasy output. At first, I was surprised the Falcons weren’t favored by more, but after a closer look, I realized just how good the Eagles have been at home this year. Philly is 3-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, beating the Browns, Steelers, and Vikings on home turf. They have also scored more points at home (28 PPG) opposed to being on the road. The Falcons look like one of the best teams in the NFC and there is a good chance they take an early lead in this contest. At the very least, “Garbage time” should be a factor even if the oddsmakers get this one wrong.
  • Bye Week Replacement Start: Mohamed Sanu – Coming off two great games, Sanu has an excellent matchup against an Eagles secondary that’ll be heavily focused on double-teaming Julio Jones.

Los Angeles at New York Jets

Vegas Line: Jets -2.5 | Over/Under: 39.5

  • Must Starts:
    M. Forte, B. Marshall
  • Sit: Both Starting Quarterbacks – This game has the lowest over/under total for the week. Vegas thinks this game will be in the 21-17 score range, and considering there are better waiver wire QB’s to stream, I wouldn’t bother with either of these guys. I think both teams will lean heavy on their run game in this contest.
  • Sleeper: Kenny Britt – This game will be low scoring, but Britt should do enough to be worthy of a flex start.
  • Sleeper DEF: Jets – This is a cross country trip for the Los Angeles Rams playing at 1 pm ET. I expect the home team to take advantage of their opponents “Jet Lag.” 

Denver at New Orleans

Vegas Line: Saints -2.5 | Over/Under: 49.5

  • Must Starts: Brees, Cooks, M.Thomas, Ingram, Hightower, D.Thomas, E.Sanders
  • Sit: Tim Hightower – I’m not buying the rumored Saints split backfield, but even if it is a 60/40 workload, the Broncos rank fourth in rushing defense against. Yes, I know Denver was torched last week against the Raiders on the ground, but I think they underestimated the Raiders gameplan and approach to pounding the ball. I expect last week’s hiccup to be a wake-up call.
  • Target Streak: Oddly enough, Demaryius Thomas has had exactly 10 targets in each of his last four games. He didn’t have double digit targets before the streak started.
  • Sleeper: Kapri Bibbs – Devontae Booker hasn’t looked great in my opinion. Bibbs is still behind Booker on the depth chart but has earned more touches.
  • Bye week Replacement: Trevor Siemian – The Saints are hard to beat at home, but this is a solid matchup regardless.

Houston at Jacksonville

Vegas Line: Texans -1.5 | Over/Under: 42.5

  • Must Start: D.Hopkins, L.Miller, ARob, J.Thomas
  • Bye-Week Replacement: Brock Osweiler is owned in less than 9% of all ESPN leagues, and for a good reason. The Texans overspent on Osweiler in free agency; he’s done very little to show he’s worth even half of his monster contract. That being said, a much-needed bye week should have helped this 5-3 AFC South team work out its kinks. A feel-good game against a Jaguars team that has lost all hope may be exactly what the team needs. Watch for Osweiler to take more of the easy underneath passes targeting Lamar Miller over the next few weeks.
  • Target Spike: Allen Robinson has seen his target totals almost double in the last two weeks. In weeks six and seven ARob had a combined target total of 14, yet he had 15 targets week nine, and 12 targets week ten.
  • Sit: Allen Hurns – Hurns is in the league’s concussion protocol. Even if he gets the start he’s not having the same sort of season fantasy owners were hoping for.

Miami at San Diego

Vegas Line: Chargers -3.5 | Over/Under: 48.5

  • Must Start: P.Rivers, Gordon, Tyrell Williams, Gates, Jay Ajayi, J.Landry
  • Sit: Ryan Tannehill – I’m not surprised that Tannehill is owned in only 21% of all ESPN leagues. He ranks 29th in the league in QBR and 30th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. On paper, this looks like a good bounce back matchup, but the guy hasn’t thrown more than 2 TD passes since week three.
  • Old Guys Get No Love: Jody Smith has ranked Antonio Gates as his (currently) second Tight End for Week 10. With the injuries to the Chargers wide Receiver group, Gates should see a higher volume of targets, especially in the red zone.
  • Sleeper: Dontrelle Inman had nine targets last week and his biggest fantasy performance since week four. The Chargers are going to need someone to step up with all the injuries they have. Production equals productivity.

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Vegas Line: Steelers -2.5 | Over/Under: 50

  • Must Start:
    Dak Prescott, Zek, Dez, Big Ben, A.Brown, Bell
  • Great Matchup: This is the game where you’ll want to target bye week replacement players or flex players. Vegas is calling this as one of the more high-scoring games at 50 total points scored. With big play threat studs on both side of the ball, this should be a fun game to watch and have fantasy players in.
  • Sleeper: Jason Witten – The old guy is still making plays.

San Francisco at Arizona

Vegas Line: Cards -12.5 | Over/Under: 48

  • Must Starts: D.Johnson, Palmer, Fitz, Hyde (Inj), Cardinals DEF
  • Sit: Colin Kaepernick – Coming off an impressive 348 passing yard, 2 TD game, Kaepernick faces off against a tough defensive divisional opponent coming off a hard loss.
  • Sleeper: JJ Nelson – Nelson replaced Michael Floyd in three-receiver sets for the Cardinals in their last game and hauled in eight catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers. Check out our Week 10 Waiver Wire article for more info.

Seattle at New England

Vegas Line: Pats -7.5 | Over/Under: 49

  • Must Starts: Brady, Gronk, Blount, Wilson, Baldwin, C.Michael, J.Graham
  • Injury Concern: Chris Hogan’s (questionable, back) status is up in the air for Week 10.
  • Sit: Christine Michael -Coming off a one-yard game and now dealing with a hamstring issue, Michael should be downgraded in what projects as a pass-heavy game script at New England. C.J. Prosise is trending toward feature back usage.
  • Sleeper:  Julian Edelman used to be a workhorse for the Patriots, but injuries and age have slowed his 2016 production. However, with Hogan Questionable, Edelman should see a boost in targets in this contest.

Cincinnati at New York Giants

Vegas Line: Bengals -1.5 | Over/Under: 47

  • Must Start: ODB, A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Eli, Dalton
  • Giant Secondary: The Gmen paid big bucks in the offseason to beef up their defensive backs, and early signs are showing a big difference. The Giants have only allowed seven passing touchdowns in 8 games this season, ranking 5th in the league.
  • Average on the ground: The Bengals and NY Giants are very average at rushing the ball and stopping the run. Neither team stands out in any one major category, and I don’t expect any one player to run away with this game. The Bengals take turns each week with splitting their carries between Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, where the Giants are starting to show signs of the same sort of rushing attack. I expect Paul Perkins to get 12-15 carries in this contest, a slight bump from the 11 touches he had last week.
  • Sleeper: Sterling Shepard

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About the author

Mike Rigz

Mike is the founding member at Gridiron Experts with over 1000+ articles credited to his name. With over 20 years of fantasy experience, Mike has a very unique style when picking sleepers and gems. He has always had a outside the box look on the NFL and rarely gets sucked into the hype over players or buzzing offenses. Mike looks at the game as a whole and doesn't focus solely on individual stats. Football is not Baseball, and you need to factor in more when researching players to draft. Mike has two kids and lives on the West Coast. He's happily married to a beautiful woman who also loves sports. Sundays are spent with friends and family watching games from opening kickoff to well into the evenings.

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