Most people heading to Las Vegas this time of year tend to say the same thing before leaving: “Hey, want me to place a bet for you on [your team] to win the Superbowl?”. Most of the time Vegas offers some tempting odds on teams that are on the rise in the NFL. I don’t recommend placing money on Superbowl or even AFC/NFC Championship games, but you’re going to do it anyways, aren’t you? So I’ll also suggest a couple of other bets to go along with your yearly prayer that your team is playing in February.

The NFL rookie prop bets have great value because you really don’t know what these players can do at the next level. No matter how bad a team is, the NFL Offensive & Defensive Rookie of the Year awards are an individual based award. Last years DEF award winner, Patrick Willis, is a great example. He dominated at the Linebacker position despite the 49er’s crappy season. Other past winners include:

• 2000 Offense- Mike Anderson  /  Defense- Brian Urlacher
• 2001 Offense-Anthony Thomas  /  Defense- Kendrell Bell
• 2002 Offense-Clinton Portis  /  Defense- Julius Peppers
• 2003 Offense-Anquin Boldin  /  Defense- Terrel Suggs
• 2004 Offense-B.Roethlisberger  /  Defense- Johnathan Vilma
• 2005 Offense-Cadillac Williams  /  Defense- Shawne Merriman
• 2006 Offense-V.Voung  /  Defense- DeMeco Ryans
• 2007 Offense- “ADP”  /  Defense- Patrick Willis 

Notice you see a lot of Running Backs? In fact, in the 39 years that the NFL has given out the Rookie of the Year (ROY) award, there have been 30 RB’s that have won! The weird thing is, only 3 QB’s have won the award in the 39 years, and Big Ben (04) and Vince Young (06) were two of them.  On the defensive side, Linebackers are not as common as Running Backs, but 18 LB’s have won the Defensive ROY award. Another interesting stat about the ROY is that the Eagles, Jags, and Seahawks have never had a player to win either the Offensive or Defensive ROY award, while the Steelers and Lions have each won 6 times.

 Of course, the favorites don’t pay that great, but history proves that first round picks aren’t always instant winners. You remember Lee Suggs, Chris Perry, Ron Dayne or TJ Duckett? This year Darren McFadden is the favorite to win the ROY (paying 3 to 1), but I’m not buying it in Oakland. If you’re going to take a chance on a bad team to win the Superbowl, why not try your luck at a good college kid to continue at the next level? Here are just some of the odds offered by Las Vegas and online Sports Books (13-2 is like 6.5 to 1):

 My value picks for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year:                 

       RB -Chris Johnson pays 40 to 1, that’s pretty big for a 1st round RB on last years top rushing team. Johnson looks like he has a great chance to get carries in a run first offense. With not a whole lot of competition ahead of him, Johnson should take the #1 RB role by mid season, and with his receiving skills he could be an every down back.

      WR- Limas Sweed pays 30 to 1. There are great odds for Wide Receivers this year, due to the fact that not one of them went in the first round. Pittsburgh is a team on the rise, and Sweed could be a great sleeper at 30 to 1.

 LB- Vernon Gholston pays 10 to 1, and Sedrick Ellis pays 9 to 1. Both are going to great teams and both have chances to win the Defensive ROY award. These bets are low risk with decent odds.

      CB- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie pays 40 to 1 and should be the starter come week 1. Antrel Rolle is being moved to safety which could make ARZ’s secondary a strong point of the team. A long shot, but more likely DO-ROD-Cromart wins the Defensive ROY award over the Cardinals winning the Superbowl.