RB Draft Strategy: Breaking Bad

The general rule of thumb when it comes to fantasy football drafts is to lock down the best and most promising running backs available in the field. Generally speaking, rushing yards have the highest value in fantasy football leagues and running backs whom catch passes are even more sought after. As a result, a top fifteen running back has historically had more value in fantasy football than a top ten receiver. But that’s historically speaking.

Contemporary NFL doesn’t value the individual running back like it used too, so the risk-reward on backs has been diminished.  Concisely, it isn’t that the conventional wisdom of using all your early picks on running backs is entirely illogical, it’s just outdated.

At the dawn of fantasy football’s boom, it was common for a single running back to be responsible for about 80% of a team’s rushing load.

I was watching the 30 for 30 documentary “Straight Outta LA”. It wasn’t the series’ finest piece by a long shot, but I noticed it said Marcus Allen was a Raider from 1982-1992. That’s ten years. Add that to the tail end of his playing days he spent as a productive member of the Chiefs, and we’re left with a fifteen year career. Those days, it goes without saying, are ancient history. You’re lucky to find a running back splitting time with only one other viable fantasy option, much less a guy that hangs around for 10+ years as a primary in the backfield.

By far the longevity of Allen’s career is what stands out the most. These days, even if you can find a running back that accounts for a bulk majority of his team’s carries and can stay reliably healthy every week, his career, generally grinds to a halt inside of five years (Shaun Alexander, anyone?) from all the wear and tear. There are a few modern-day exceptions like Fred Taylor and Curtis Martin, but for every Fred Taylor there are ten Kevin Jones.

So it only makes sense that the approach we take to fantasy football reflects the adaptations underwent by the league itself. And a mandatory drafting of a running back in each of the first two rounds regardless of who’s available and where you’re drafting is the antithesis to that. This screed isn’t one of self-righteousness, but rather the passing of a lesson learned. For a number of reasons, I’d always subscribed to the prioritizing of running backs. Because I didn’t want to fall behind the rest of my league, because since they were in such high demand, I had to maximize the talent of my starters at the position, etc. This, as it turns out, is ill-advised.

Now, this is obviously all circumstantial. If you’re in one of those leagues where rushing yards and touchdowns are heavily weighted, then just disregard this entirely (I probably could have said this before the jump).But,  If you only get one point for every 50-100 passing yards, go back to taking Frank Gore in the top five like you do every season, it’s applicable.

Also, regardless of how you draft, there’s no accounting for injuries. I could crack the DaVinci Code of fantasy football drafting and no one can do anything about Andre Johnson tearing an ACL (hypothetically speaking, of course). But if you’re in a league where all scoring is of relatively equal value (TD’s and yards are only slightly weighted), I have an alternate approach that worked for me in 2009: Draft your starting running backs later and your backup running backs earlier than advised.

The reason for this is two-fold:

1)      It ensures you land one of the six or seven quarterbacks you must have for any chance of winning your fantasy league (Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees and maybe Schaub and/or Favre). I suppose you could draft two receivers and there isn’t much harm too it, it wouldn’t be much different from drafting two running backs other than you’re getting better players at their position that operate at a (most likely) comparatively depreciated scoring rate. But the shallowest pool of talent is at quarterback. In the NFL the total of quality QB’s is as deep as its ever been, but in fantasy football there are only about 20 guys you can even consider starting on any given week. Look at it this way, while the roster arguably looks nicer with two top-tier running backs on it, you don’t want to head into any week against one of the seven aforementioned guys with Matt Ryan as your starter. You snatch up one MVP candidate, and you generally only need a serviceable backup somewhere in the later rounds for your bye week.

2)      It has been my experience — based on the unpredictability of running backs and their penchant for injury — that it’s better to draft an abnormally large collection of average to above average running backs than it is to ensure being top-heavy with nothing tangible to supplement your starters (this is a risk better taken with your quarterback). In addition to the morass of free agents that go undrafted every season and eventually become viable starters, running back is a position that is in constant flux for most of the season. Unlike with quarterbacks, this pool is deep, and deeper than that of surefire receivers. Stockpile average to above-average running backs in rounds 3-10 to keep a nice well of replacements for when your starters inevitably sustain injury.

Now, I wouldn’t run wild with this. I’m not suggesting drafting all other positions before you address your empty running back slots. But if you have the 7th or 8th overall pick, holding off until the third round can assure you a top three quarterback and a top five receiver, all for bypassing on two running backs that have relatively equivocal value and potential with whoever you can acquire in the third.  Just look at ESPN fantasy staff’s 2009 top eight pre-season rankings and how they measured up to the season end results if you’re seeking evidence:

1)       Adrian Peterson: 1,383 yards, 18 TD’s and 6 fumbles; 5th overall in rushing. Serviceable numbers for the first overall pick, nothing mind-blowing.

2)       Michael Turner: 871 yards, 10 TD’s and 4 fumbles; 19th overall in rushing. Missed five games in a tremendously disappointing season.

3)       Maurice Jones-Drew:  1391 yards, 15 TD’s and 2 fumbles, 4th overall in rushing. In addition to 53 receptions for 374 yards, Drew had a career season though not that much different from Peterson.

4)       Matt Forte: 929 rushing yards, 4 TD’s and 5 fumbles; 18th overall in rushing. Worse than anyone could have imagined, though with an out of shape QB in a new system with no receivers and an aging line, these things tend to happen.

5)       Steven Jackson: 1,416 yards, 4 TD’s and 2 fumbles; 2th overall in rushing. Better than anyone could have anticipated, with 51 receptions for 322 yards, it’s disappointing to see him wasting his career in rebuilding mode in St. Louis. As a result he slipped in the first round in most drafts.

6)       DeAngelo Williams: 1,117 yards, 7 TD’s and 3 fumbles; 13th overall in rushing; missed three games and his backup produced a better year. Concisely, he fell short of expectations.

7)       Chris Johnson: 2006 yards, 14 TD’s and 3 fumbles; 1st in the league in rushing. In addition to 50 receptions for 533 yards and 2 TD’s, his numbers would have been even greater if they didn’t over-extend Kerry Collins’ welcome or give LenDale White so many pity touches to open the season.

8.)       LaDainian Tomilinson: 730 yards, 12 TD’s and 1 fumble; 29th in the league in rushing. I’m surprised by his TD total, especially since he missed three games. But this was only a disappointing season if you bought any of these rankings’ bullshit. Everyone knew he was over the hill and was getting that rank out of name recognition, you have no one to blame but yourself if you took him in the first.

You know who actually finished in the top 15 in rushing but wasn’t projected anywhere near the first two rounds from the same list? Thomas Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Ryan Grant, Ricky Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal f-ing Charles, Cedric Benson and Fred Jackson. That means nine of the top fifteen running backs from 2009 were significantly under-valued heading into the 2009 season, and were acquired for bargain basement prices. Like always with running backs, it’s a total crapshoot, and you can only approximate who’s going to produce, not predict.

Compare this to the top ten quarterbacks from the same rankings: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Brett Favre all also finished the season in the top ten in passing. Evidently, the projected success rate for quarterbacks tends to be a lot less varied and a lot more accurate by the professionals and masses alike.

To counterpoint, there are arguments for going with the running back early, particularly in the top half of the first round. If nothing else you can use whoever you take as trade bait before the season starts because the market value is through the roof on a guy like Maurice Jones-Drew, not to mention he’s just a damn good football player that produces on an otherwise stagnant offense. I doubt any one with Jones-Drew on their roster last season looks back at the draft and is racked with buyer’s remorse at the end of the season.

But the very notion that someone like Joe Addai or Marion Barber would ever be taken ahead of Aaron Rodgers or DeSean Jackson reflects the practices of a league that hasn’t existed for over a decade. So come draft time (which is admittedly a ways off), consider bucking the trend and try drafting the second rated quarterback or highest rated receiver as opposed to the eighth rated running back; this will keep you ahead of the curve and will assure an advantage on your league at two positions, instead of an arguably comparable matchup (which you’ll have if you draft RB’s for depth and not certainty) at one.