What Is the Outplay Formula?
Outplay is a formula that we use here at Gridiron Experts to help us with everything from picking games to deciding on which fantasy players to start week to week. Those who know of the outplay formula use it as a helpful guide, and many believe that Las Vegas uses it along with a hundred other methods to determine the spread each week.

The idea behind the outplay formula is that a team or player could be performing better or worse than we might think, based on the opponents they’ve gone up against.The Outplay has been created for the following for each team:

• Overall Outplay Production- A combination of the teams PPG on offense and defense in comparison to all the opponents they have faced. This is used to help pick winners.
• Offensive Passing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams passing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Defensive Passing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams defensive passing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Offensive Rushing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams rushing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Defensive Rushing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams defensive rushing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.

The math behind the formula is a bit confusing, but basically you take a teams points per game average on offense and defense and compare it to all of its opponents offensive and defensive PPG. Lets say, for example, DEN is averaging 21 PPG on offense, and has played 5 teams that are allowing an average of only 14 PPG on defense. That means that offensively, DEN is “outplaying” their opponents by 7 PPG. The same principle is applied to defensive points allowed per game and rushing and passing yards per game.

*The best example I can give you is from week 7 of the 2007 season: Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Buffalo Bills (1-4)

Baltimore was a 3.5 point favorite, and based on their record many believed that 3.5 points was a steal. Looking back, we now know that Buffalo was a team that made a late season run, while Baltimore fell apart by mid-season. If you looked at BAL’s opponents up until that point it was a walk in the park. BAL had 4 wins from ARZ / STL / SF / NYJ. However, BAL had a shoot-out with ARZ, and could only put up 9 points against the 49er’s in a 9-7 win. Meanwhile, Buffalo had 4 losses to NE / DAL / PIT / DEN. Even though BUF lost these games, they were able to put up decent outplay numbers both offensively and defensively against these tough opponents. Although the schedule could have been different, it was how well each team had performed that the outplay noticed. BAL was struggling against weak teams, and BUF was playing well against strong teams. Due to our outplay formula, we had Buffalo favored by 2 for this week. The final outcome: BUF 19 BAL 14!

****Please Note**** This formula needs 4-5 weeks to be able to build up fair comparisons. The best time to use this system is between weeks 5 and 12. After week 12, other factors such as weather and injuries make this system harder to find upsets. Make sure you make our site your go-to source when needing advice this season.

WEEK 4 OutPlay

Early interesting stats from the 7 match-ups above (BETA VERSION: 4 FULL WEEKS needed for better results)

• Detroit is Outplaying their opponents in the passing department by 44.9 yards per game. Meaning their opponents passing defenses usually give up less.
• The Cowboys excellent rushing defense is better than we think, the Outplay formula says their opponents average 29 yards more than what the Cowboys are willing to give up. Meaning the Cowboys have been able to Outplay opponents on the ground defensively, making Jahvid Best maybe not the best start this week for rushing yards.
• The Bengals Passing Defense has lived up to their stats; they are very accurate to be the type of team that will keep opponents to under 200 yards passing.
• The Bills rushing offense is Outplaying opponents by 43.3 yards per game, although the Bengals look somewhat solid on the ground defensively, giving up only 10 extra yards that they should.
• The 49ers are underachieving in the Rushing and Passing departments. They should be averaging 23 yards more per game on the ground and 85 yards more per game through the air, in comparison to what their opponents have been giving up on average.
• The Eagles passing defense hasn’t had a lot of turnovers, but they are better than we may think, keeping opponents to 48 fewer passing yards than what their opponents are used to gaining on average.
• The Redskins have an average of allowing 240 passing yards per game, but the Outplay shows they are outplaying their opponents because the Giants, Cardinals, and Cowboys have been able to pass for more on average against other opponents. This could mean a quiet day for Sam Bradford.
• The Rams have been torched on the ground, and are worse than what teams are normally averaging. Meaning you should expect higher than normal numbers from the Skins RB’s.
• The Steelers are outplaying passing defenses by 56.3 yards.
• The Falcons are under achieving in the rushing department and are not performing well in the defensive passing category. I’m personally picking the Seahawks as a spoiler this weekend. These stats are very raw and only have 3 weeks of numbers to create averages, but with the Falcons troubles on the road the Seahawks home-field advantage with the 12th man, I’m going to take a shot. Pigskin Picks
• Amazingly the Panthers are outplaying passing defenses by 44.8 yards per game. Jay Cutler and the passing game is under achieving against passing defenses by 50 yards.

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How do I use this to pick games?

Well in the NFL, home-field advantage is a powerful weapon that stats can’t adjust for, so by rule of the thumb you award 3 points to all home teams Overall Outplay Score. Here are the outplays picks for Week 4:

Dallas, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Washington, Houston, Seattle, Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego ( by a hair), Green Bay, New Orleans, Tennessee, Oakland, New York, Baltimore, Tampa Bay.