NFL Strategy: Drafting In A Lockout

Even though the lockout has been temporarily lifted, it is still not business as usual in the National Football League.  The owners are already telling employees to give the players limited access to team facilities and personnel. The owners are frantically attempting to get an emergency legal provision granted that would postpone the judges ruling and continue the lockout.  Whether or not they get it, nothing is going to be resolved before the NFL Draft starting on Thursday night.  With the mess of an off-season both the owners and players have created, the draft has taken on added significance – making it one of the most critical league wide since the start of modern day free agency.

Every other year teams would have filled the majority of their immediate needs in free agency.  The big name players would have been signed and have playbooks in their hands learning their new team’s offensive or defensive systems.  General Managers typically could use the draft to fill in holes they still feel they need to address or focus more on not just the current year, but how a player would fit in during years two and three.  With no real end to the lockout in sight, every franchise still has all those holes to fill.  They will have to not only prepare for the draft based on the needs of the full 2010 roster, but also on free agents.  Unable to sign their own free agents – much less anyone else’s – this is the first time to improve their teams.

It might actually help teams become more successful in the draft.  Since they don’t really know what all their immediate needs are, assuming free agency starts again, teams should be able to focus on picking the best player available.  At this point they should have free agency – eventually – to fill in the gaps they don’t get filled with the draft. This situation is the complete opposite of every other year.  The most successful drafts each year are those that don’t over value a position and reach for that position a round early.  There should be less ‘reaching’ during this draft because free agency has not started.

Another thing that makes this draft even more intriguing than most is the fact that the drafted players cannot even look at a team playbook after the draft.  In a normal year rookies are expected to start learning the schemes and terminology of their new team shortly after they are drafted – or at least as soon as they are signed.  This year rookies will not have that luxury.  Teams will have to place added emphasis on how well they think a player can learn their scheme quickly and effectively.  They might have to be thrown into the fire with a handful of weeks to learn an entire playbook.

Rookies will not be allowed to work out with the team.  Not only will that affect the rookie’s development, but it will also affect the coaching staff and current players’ ability to learn the new guy’s strengths and weaknesses.  The coaches will have to make decisions on where and how soon to play guys quicker with the lack of practice time they will get.  Veteran teammates will have less time to learn how to play with their new additions, making – for example – offensive line communication and quarterback wide receiver chemistry harder to fine tune before the season.

This will especially be tough on the teams who need a quarterback.  If they need someone like Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton to step in and win the starting job early, they will be at a huge disadvantage with the lack of time they will have to learn the offense.  The odds of a rookie quarterback having success in year one are already long, but with less time to prepare it will become nearly impossible.

One thing that has been overlooked since everyone focuses on the top of the draft is how the lockout will affect the end of the draft.  If a player is not drafted, he will not be able to sign as a free agent as in the past.  This will change how teams prioritize their late round picks.  A number of guys are signed as free agents right after the draft in a normal year.  This year teams will have to put more stock in who they want to target late, knowing if they don’t draft him, they will not have a second chance to get him until the lockout ends.

The NFL Draft has become football fan’s spring fix while waiting for the season to start again.  Even with limits on teams ability to make trades – which always adds intrigue – the lockout has taken away some of the drama of draft day, but has made the picks that are made more important than ever.