This is Gridiron Experts Fantasy Mock Draft Analysis article. The concept is simple, a group of our writers will be given a scenario and asked their opinion to make the next pick in a live fantasy football draft. In previous editions of this article we have looked at picks in the 3rd, 4th, and even 5th rounds, but this time we are going to change it up.
For this edition of “You’re on the clock”, we are looking at the 2nd overall pick after Adrian Peterson. We are going to be discussing the pick in different types of leagues to also help you make your pick.[tabs] [tab title=”Keeper League Start-up Draft”]
I will comfortably take Doug Martin with the second pick in any draft. I would probably take Martin with the first pick of a PPR draft. He’s getting his two best offensive linemen back in Carl Nicks (sort of) and Davin Joseph plus former Bears’ first round pick Gabe Carimi as the new right tackle. Martin was the second highest scoring running back behind Peterson in PPR leagues in 2012 and third in standard leagues behind Peterson and Arian Foster. Again, that was without Nicks and the majority of the season was without Joseph. In my opinion Martin is one of the safest running backs this year. He’s my second pick in a heartbeat.
While I like Arian Foster a lot, he’s got a lot of mileage for a keeper league. He’s already declining a little, as Jody illustrated. With a keeper league you want a young and durable RB with the #2 overall pick. Zach makes a great case for Doug Martin. He gets lots of touches, only has one season of mileage, and does not have an injury history to worry about. Yep, it’s got to be Doug Martin if you can’t get All Day.
That’s easy! You select Jamaal Charles! Not only is he a great option for both PPR and standard scoring leagues, but Andy Reid typically only uses one running back in his offense. Not to mention there really isn’t much behind him on the depth chart. Charles is only 25 and will give you a few more years of solid production in a league that is getting increasingly more difficult to find quality running backs for your fantasy teams.
I agree with Zhan here. I like Jamaal Charles and C.J. Spiller because of their production in terms of yardage. I just worry about Spiller losing goal line carries to Fred Jackson. Spiller is a more dynamic back, but Jackson has the body type for a punch up the gut score. You could make an argument for Charles’ lack of TD production on the ground, but as Zhan said, there is nobody else behind him and that TD number is bound to rise. Charles gets the edge.
It might be a little off the board, but I think I go with LeSean McCoy. You can put me in the category of ‘Very Intrigued’ with the Chip Kelly run-first Offense, and I feel like McCoy could be the biggest benefactor. He has shown in the past that he can take on a huge load (320 touches in 2011). He is a dual threat, and is a sure shot at 10 TDs, but the chances of 15+ are very likely…as long as his chicken legs can hold up for an entire 16 game pounding. I am counting on it. SideNote: Jamaal Charles was also given some consideration for this pick.
When entering a start-up with the ability to keep guys, age becomes a fairly significant factor. With that said, Doug Martin and Trent Richardson look like young, three-down backs who are also excellent pass catchers. Both also look primed for extremely heavy workloads moving forward.
Given it’s a keeper league, I think you could make a case for a few guys here. I would narrow it down to Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, and C.J. Spiller. At 24, Martin is the youngest of the group, an oft-overlooked statistic that’s pretty valuable in the modern RB era. But at 26, Spiller and Charles are still young and stand to produce for many years to come. They’re also the more explosive players of the group. Call me crazy, but I would put Doug Martin in a class below them. Spiller will be the least overworked of the bunch, which leads me to believe he’ll be the most durable. Charles was the victim of an ACL injury, which although was fluky, is the type of injury that is always a threat to reoccur. I think I would go with the young, explosive Spiller. Doug Marrone’s new offense should increase his touches. Fred Jackson will be there to spell him when needed. As Spiller matures and Jackson declines, Spiller’s role in the offense will only increase. Manuel will eventually add a dynamic threat to the offense, which I expect will benefit Spiller as well. C.J. may be slower out of the gates, but I think he finishes the strongest of the bunch. His yards after contact rank near the top of the league and he’s almost impossible to catch in the open field.
[/tab] [tab title=”PPR Re-draft (non keeper)”] There is no actual rule that you need to take a RB with the #2 pick. This is PPR, and in 2012 we saw Calvin Johnson have an unreal season. He had 10+ receptions in six games and nearly 2,000 yards. Maybe he will not match those numbers, but he’s almost surely going to improve on his 5 touchdowns. With PPR you can likely get a nice round two RB like Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, or Matt Forte. Megatron has the PPR value to be the #2 pick.
I’ll still take Doug Martin with the second pick no matter what the draft format is, but especially in PPR. Out of any league type Martin possesses the most value in PPR scoring leagues. He caught 49 balls for 472 yards and a touchdown last year. That’s 102.2 fantasy points in addition to his rushing totals. Doug Martin will be one of the top three PPR running backs for years to come. If you have the second pick in your PPR draft, take the Muscle Hamster.
Once again I will go with Jamaal Charles. I think he will finish as one of the top running backs, and the points for receptions will only help his cause. With a lack of dynamic receiving options in Kansas City, Alex Smith may rely heavily on Charles this season as a receiving threat out of the backfield.
Again it comes down to CJ or Charles for me, but Charles is still a pass catching back and Spiller still has Jackson behind him. Even though the Bills plan on giving CJ the ball until he pukes, I think the two will be close in production and I just like the Charles situation better.
You still have to take a running back here. Doug Martin looks like a good bet to be heavily involved as both a runner and pass-catcher. As a rookie, Martin hauled in 49 grabs and finished as the second rated PPR back, behind only Adrian Peterson. The Bucs didn’t add any significant competition for playing time, so Martin looks like a safe bet to have another dominant season.
The Jamaal Charles bandwagon came through my town earlier this week and I hopped right on. Some great things are happening in Kansas City. They added the top draft prospect to an offensive line already ranked top 10 in the league. They brought in a quarterback that can manage a game and move the chains like the best of them. Andy Reid should revamp a passing attack that will keep Charles very involved (huge PPR bonus). Let’s also not forget Charles had possibly the second greatest rushing season coming off of an ACL tear in NFL history. Had he not been overshadowed by Peterson, we’d all be marveling at what Charles accomplished. Charles is still young and he’s a threat to take it to the house with any touch. Give me him over an inconsistent Doug Martin any day.
[/tab] [tab title=”Standard (Non Keeper)”]
While I would be tempted to take Arian Foster with the second overall pick in a standard draft, I’m still sticking with Doug Martin. Foster finished just .2 points ahead of Martin in standard scoring leagues last year. Again, keep in mind that Martin didn’t have his two best offensive linemen in Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph, not to mention he was a rookie. With a year of experience and success, Martin is my safest option for the second overall pick in standard drafts.
I would go with a running back, however there are so many options here that you really can’t go wrong. Being that it is standard scoring I might look more to a “bellcow” style back. Taking that into consideration, Arian Foster and Steven Jackson would both be great options. Foster is a bit banged up, but he was in the same situation in the preseason of 2011 and he turned out pretty good. As far as Steven Jackson goes, I have a feeling Atlanta will run him into the ground this season, which should result in a great fantasy season.
In standard leagues I lean towards Arian Foster since he’s been a consistent elite RB for a few years now. Foster could be on a little bit of a decline, but he’s still probably the best and most safe choice for 2013.
Everyone (ahem) seems to be ready to write off Arian Foster, but let’s slow down on the moratorium to his fantasy value. Foster is a three-down-back for a contending team and just led the NFL in touchdowns. He’s also finished as a top-three fantasy producer in each of his three seasons as a starter. That’s a dominant and consistent run that is hard to pass up. There are some historical indicators that say Foster could be due for a regression, but he’s a solid value as the number two pick.
Non-PPR, re-draft makes me tempted to mix it up and go against the grain. I’m going to go highest risk, highest reward here. I’m taking LeSean McCoy. Chip Kelly’s system is a huge question mark. It could be a total bust. The success of the spread-option has me hopeful, but I remember seeing Auburn totally dismantle the Ducks in the national championship a few years back. Kelly’s system is great in the Pac 10, but anytime the Ducks run into a powerhouse defense with time to prep, it seems to fail miserably. Auburn’s defense was great, but still would pale in comparison to any NFL defense. That gives me great concern about Chip Kelly’s chances, not as a Giants fan, but as a fantasy competitor considering drafting McCoy. We obviously didn’t see the best of McCoy last year though. Quite frankly, he’s better than that. This is a guy two years removed from a 20 TD season. He’s still young, as elusive as they come, and should be a first round pick regardless. However, if Kelly’s system does work – and given it’s the year of its inception, now would be the best chance for it to work – McCoy’s ceiling could be through the roof. It might be worth going all-in on Shady, just to see how high that ceiling goes for him.