Can Mike Tolbert Win You A Fantasy Championship?

We all know how it goes. You carry your finely assembled team full of big names into the stretch run of the season and into playoffs hoping for a deep run. However, your aspirations for fantasy glory come to a screeching halt as a shrewd opponent pulls out his wild card.  The relative unknown who puts up surprisingly great numbers, despite being either a backup, a rookie, or thought of as over the hill. A prime example of this tactical genius or horrendously unlucky bordering on unfair tactic (depending on which angle you see this) is Mike Tolbert. This 5’9” 243 lb behemoth crushed fantasy dreams and linebackers collarbones alike.  After being perceived as a lousy backup, with best case scenario being a few goal line touches, Tolbert gave a big boost to teams vying for position with a very respectable 342 yards and 4 touchdowns in weeks 11-15. This is from someone your opponent picked up off waivers and plugged into his lineup.

Well, you know what they say: Lose to Mike Tolbert once shame on you, lose to Mike Tolbert twice shame on me.  Tolbert is being drafted in most mock drafts as the 40-45th ranked running back. In other words, projections imply that 40-45 other running backs will have a better opportunity than a guy who will get goal line touches in an explosive offense, being at the very least a change of pace running back, getting more touches due to Darren Sproles heading to New Orleans, and will be a workhorse if needed with potential to get 25+ carries (as evidenced in weeks 11 & 12 of the 2010 season) playing behind an injury prone second year running back. The key to success in fantasy is playing the odds. Odds are Mike Tolbert will get more carries, based on the reasons I just mentioned, than someone like BenJarvus “I play in a crowded Belichickian backfield” Green-Ellis.

The expectations for Ryan Mathews to replace LaDainian Tomlinson in such a powerful offense came crashing back to earth, and now the expectations are a lot more modest. However, Mathews has been quietly struggling in camp amidst all the free agent frenzy and countless airtime on Sportscenter over a washed up 3rd or 4th wide receiver (yes, I’m looking at you, Plaxico). First, he showed up to camp and declared that “There’s a couple things I probably should have done differently in the offseason” after pulling an Albert Haynesworth and failing his conditioning test by not even finishing it. Seriously, that happened. To boot, he was sidelined from camp with a toe injury for a couple of practices. These issues are hardly a way to get on the field and in the good graces of the coaches.

If you take away Mathews’ gaudy yet fantasy-useless week 17 outburst against the lowly Broncos, you are looking at 11 games played, 555 yards, and 4 TDs. Hardly a sign of great things to come. While Mike Tolbert is being picked in the 9th round on average in a 12 team league, Ryan Mathews is being drafted in the 3rd. When I look at odds and giving myself the best chance to win a league, would I rather have Mathews and Hines Ward (WR drafted in the 9-10thround) or would I rather have Tolbert and Marques Colston ( WR drafted in the 3rd-4th round)? When put like that, it seems like a no brainer, right? Colston is so far ahead of Ward in potential and expected output, while the actual difference between Mathews and Tolbert is marginal at best. My advice: don’t lose to Mike Tolbert twice and be shamed. Snag him in the mid-rounds of your draft, and unleash him on your unsuspecting opponents come November and December.