History Says No To Repeat Of 2000 Yard Rusher

History Says No To Repeat Of 2000 Yard Rusher.

Last season Chris Johnson became a fantasy owner’s best friend with his quest for a 2000 yard rushing season.  Not only did he accomplish this goal, but he also set the mark for total yards from scrimmage.  Johnson is already proclaiming that he will be in hot pursuit of a back to back 2000 yard rushing campaign.  Unfortunately, for Johnson history does not show an overly positive outcome the following year for backs coming off of a 2000 yard season.   Below is a listing of all six men who have achieved a 2000 rushing season along with the yards per carry for that season.

Player	Year	Rush Yrds	Avg
O.J. Simpson	1973	2003	6.0
Eric Dickerson	1984	2105	5.6
Barry Sanders	1997	2053	6.1
Terrell Davis	1998	2008	5.1
Jamal Lewis	2003	2066	5.3
Chris Johnson	2009	2006	5.6

The numbers displayed above are undoubtedly very impressive.  Each player went over five yards per carry in their 2000 yard season.  Most of these players even got close to or even up to the six yards per carry average.  It is easy to understand that these players were able to dominate opposing defenses because of their YPC average and without question the great play of their offensive lines.   Unfortunately for them the yards per carry average did not transition over to the following season.  Here are the total rushing yards along with the yards per carry for each players season following their 2000 yard season.

PLAYER	Year	Rush Yrds	Avg
O.J. Simpson	1974	1125	4.2
Eric Dickerson	1985	1234	4.2
Barry Sanders	1998	1491	4.3
Terrell Davis	1999	211	3.1
Jamal Lewis	2004	1006	4.3

Looking at these numbers each player averaged around 4.2 to 4.3 yards per carry the following season.  The only player not to do so was Terrell Davis who had his 1999 season cut short with a knee injury that occurred while trying to make a tackle.   Therefore, even if Johnson were to get the same number of carries in 2010 as he did in 2009 history shows that his YPC would drop by at least 1.3 yards.  Another factor to consider is that all of the players, except for Barry Sanders, each received less rushing attempts the following season.

In conclusion, even if Johnson were to receive the same number of carries history would tell us that he would only accumulate around 1500 rushing yards in 2010. Stats are made to be broken, but as someone who has no chance of acquiring Chris Johnson in this seasons fantasy draft, I hope he takes it easy on the rest of us non fantasy football owners.

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