Greg Jennings Fantasy Preview

After a fantastic season in 2008 and a great team pre-season in 2009, Greg Jennings was looking like a shoe in to become a top 10 fantasy football WR. Unfortunately, after a solid two week start to the season, Greg Jennings monster status fell apart and amounted to a commendable 1113 yards receiving and only 4 touchdowns with 68 receptions.

As the #1 receiver on arguably the strongest fantasy offense, where should Greg Jennings be ranked in 2010? and what happened last year?

Problem A: In 2009 the Packers simply had too many people vying for the ball in the red zone. With Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Ryan Grant, and a couple of bit players popping open like Spencer Havner who caught 4 TD’s!, there just wasn’t enough to go around. Tack the amount of options with Jennings lack of height (Jennings is 5’11, Finley is a monstrous 6’5), and you have a perfect storm for a lack of red zone production.

Problem B: Green Bay’s porous offensive line. 2009 saw  Arron Rodgers sacked a David Carr-like 50 times. The Packers did address this situation by drafting Bryan Bulaga in the first round, but he is likely to be backup left tackle behind the aging Chad Clifton, although some predict Bulaga finds a home as RT or guard this year. The line does have quite a bit of depth, but the starting lineup didn’t get much of an upgrade at all.

Because of Jennings speed, he was typically the deep route runner, but the ball was out of Rogers hands before he could get open. Without the option to throw the ball deep, Rogers typically had to dump it to the surprisingly effective Jermichael Finley and the excellent route running of Donald Driver. By the end of the season, Jennings was running shorter, smarter routes which helped his production, but he just isn’t quite the same without the time for the deep ball option.

Even with his red zone production likely not to change much and his offensive line looking largely the same, 2010 looks to be a bit more forgiving for Greg Jennings. The #2 receiver on the depth chart, Donald Driver is 35 and is definitely not getting any younger. He had arthroscopic surgery on both of his knees after last season, and while he’s likely to fully recover, there’s a chance he goes the way of Marvin Harrison and slips into the abyss. The team also knows now that Arron Rogers will be under fire, so Jennings will probably be running more quick slant routes that will get him the ball early while still taking advantage of his speed.

Look for something around 1,200 yards and 6-8 touchdowns for Jennings in 2010. The Packers just have too many options for Jennings to be a safe bet for double digit TD’s. Although the team is very explosive, and if the offensive line figures it out in 2010 Jennings could have a monster season, making him great fantasy option with the possibility of becoming a break out star.