Fantasy Spin: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit D-Line

In recent years Minnesota Vikings fans could count on four things: death, taxes, failing painfully in the playoffs and nearly two victories every year over division rival Detroit. The Lions have not gotten two wins in a season over their opponents from the west since 1991. During that time the Vikings have swept the ‘Motor City Kitties’, as at least one sports talk radio host has called them, nine times. A big reason why the Vikings have dominated the Lions in the last four seasons is because of Adrian Peterson.

Since he has become a Viking, Peterson has played the Lions a total of eight times. He has averaged 101 yards and nearly a touchdown a game. Disregarding his first and last games against the Lions - the first being before he was established as the starter and the last being the final game of last season when the Vikings were a mess – he ups those numbers to 120 yards per game and over a touchdown a game.

Over the past two years the Lions have significantly beefed up their defensive line. Before last season they added Kyle Vanden Bosch at defensive end and used two first round draft picks on defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. While Vanden Bosch only recorded four sacks last season, Suh showed why he was picked so high in the draft by recording ten sacks his rookie year.  Add in fourth year defensive end Turk McBride’s six sacks to give the defense twenty sacks from three of its’ four defensive linemen.  Assuming he is close to as good as most people think,  the addition of Fairley gives the Lions the potential to have a dominant defensive line for years to come.

No doubt part of the reason for the investment in the front four the past two years has been in response to having to watch that purple number 28 jersey routinely break off long runs against them. Vikings fans and Peterson fantasy owners should think twice before penciling in ‘All Day’ for at least a touchdown and 90 plus yards twice a year against the Lions going forward and it is not just because Fairley, Suh and company.

While the Lions defensive line has improved by leaps and bounds the last few years, the Vikings offensive line has regressed. Long considered one of the best front fives in the league, the Vikings offensive line has slowly deteriorated. Ever since the departure of former All-Pro Matt Birk about three years ago the Vikings have regressed at nearly every position. There is no need to look any further than the interior three to see what has happened to the Vikings offensive line. Looking at the current unofficial depth chart for the Vikings, gone are the rock solid combinations of Birk, former All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson and the steady Anthony Herrera. They have been replaced by the young trio of Chris DeGeare, John Sullivan and Ryan Cook. Even if they bring back Hutchinson and Herrera, they have both had injury issues and - especially Hutchinson - are on the backside of their careers.

In the past the Vikings - even with Tarvaris Jackson - had at least a little bit of a passing game to keep defenses honest and open up running lanes for their main weapon - Peterson. Jackson was below average, but had the time behind an elite line to make the occasional play.  With the quarterback position as up in the air as any in the league and the possible loss of wide receiver Sidney Rice, teams should be able to load up against the run in 2011.

Without any doing by Adrian Peterson, on his worst day he is still a top five runningback, the twice a year match-up between number 28 and the Lions defensive line looks like it is still a mismatch. The twist is the advantage has switched from the Vikings to the Lions. Because of the big guys on both teams up front, the advantage, in a big way, is back with Detroit.