Fantasy Profile: LeSean McCoy

Fantasy Profile: LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy came to Philadelphia prepared and hoping to be the eventual replacement to Eagle legend, Brian Westbrook. Since Westbrook’s penchant for injury caught up to him in the worst and (according to recent reports) inevitable way possible, McCoy’s ascent was expedited and he was listed as the starter in only his second week as an NFL running back. For just about any other possession in the league, this isn’t typically a good thing.

But for running backs, well, in the year prior to McCoy’s rookie season, the 2008 rookie class produced Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Tim Hightower, Ray Rice, Jonathan Stewart and Kevin Smith all of whom came into the league and immediately contributed, adding anywhere from league-changing to serviceable fantasy numbers. This doesn’t even factor in highly touted Darren McFadden (who was splitting carries/fighting injury), Felix Jones (ditto) and Rashard Mendehall (missed his entire rookie season with a preseason knee injury) who were all first round picks. With that, the precedent was set, and expectations were high for McCoy in his rookie season. Especially since he was replacing the most consistent running back of the past decade in Westbrook.

To say those expectations have since diminished for 2010 isn’t entirely accurate. I mean, the list of guy’s named above, only Chris Johnson, Rice and Stewart exceeded the standard they set in their rookie seasons, which indicates that fluctuation amongst running backs, much like everything else related to the NFL, is volatile. So no one’s giving up on McCoy per say, but his numbers in his rookie campaign were, shall we say… problematic for a team that’s relied so heavily on consistency coming out of the backfield for the past ten seasons. I’m sure at some point in the league’s history, four touchdowns and four yards a carry translated into a promising rookie year. But after 2008, when so many players drafted into far less ideal situations than McCoy out-performed him in a landslide, it doesn’t bode well for his future in Philadelphia.

In a way, he’s under just as much pressure to replace Westbrook as Kolb is to replace McNabb. Some might say mores so. While Eagle nation seemed so overwhelmingly displeased with McNabb’s performace. Westbrook was a fan favorite. The Brian Dawkins of their offense in terms of local popularity. The difference being of course, that McCoy already has a full season as the starting tailback and came up way short of delivering. If you look at his game log, he went for over 80 yards only three times in 2009, which is the same frequency with which he went for under five. Yes, five. In three separate games, McCoy only managed to produce 2, 3 or 4 yards rushing. That is a gaping black hole on a fantasy roster, regardless of league size, and sort of renders him no higher than a 6^th round pick.

It isn’t all gloom and doom for the Pittsburgh alum in the fantasy world. For starters, he is unequivocally the, well, starter for a team with an otherwise loaded offense. It warrants mentioning that Leonard Weaver was getting more and more carries as the season progressed last year, and that they acquired Mike Bell to spell their starter. But the Eagles spent a second round pick on McCoy, and so long as he produces a fraction of what they were counting on when they drafted him, he should feel comfortable in the starting role, benefiting from roughly 70% of the carries.

This is rare in the NFL. With the exception of Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew, you can’t really say that about anyone else in the league. Not to mention he just turned 22, and was about as young as one can legally play in the NFL in his disappointing rookie season. The difference between those guys and McCoy is they’ve proven to carry a team’s rushing load in recent history, and all those team’s rush the ball considerably more than the Eagles traditionally have under Andy Reid.

But for all the talk of how expendable running backs are (a practice I am well-versed in), there are instances where someone simply isn’t a good runner. As unreal as it may seem, in a world where the Aaron Stecker’s and Kolby Smith’s can regularly fill-in at the same production level as their overpaid contemporaries, sometimes a guy taken in the second round simply doesn’t take in the professional ranks. Maybe he fails to see the gaps in the defense, or lacks the instinct or quickness to turn busted or average plays into average or game-breaking plays. Or maybe the offensive line was simply unable to deliver (it was pretty terrible). Whatever the reason, if his rookie season is any barometer, LeSean McCoy might very well be one of the few examples of running backs who were talented enough to reach the NFL, but inexplicably unable to excel in it.

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