Fantasy Football Rookie Watch

Every year people draft unproven players, hoping they could be the next best thing. Sadly, most people end up kicking themselves for wasting an early pick in fantasy pools on guys that never hit the field. This year should be even worse, as the Vikings Adrian Peterson destroyed fantasy pools last year, and people will look to find a similar type player. Odds are that ADP was a fantasy fluke; I don’t want to take anything away from him, but what he did in his first year was unheard of. Most rookies take time to develop and are big winners in fantasy keeper leagues. Ignorance is bliss when drafting players in 2008; I bet there will be a lot of reaches in pools by people looking to corner the market for the next rookie RB, WR, whatever. The truth is, Adrian Peterson was drafted by the perfect team for him to have the monster season he had. I’m not saying he couldn’t be a star in another city, but the situation couldn’t have been better for him. The Vikings had recently acquired Steve Hutchinson from the Seahawks, which gave them the added boost to an already solid line. The fact that A. Peterson was playing in a dome added to his value, as he has quick moves along with the ability to thrive indoors. There wasn’t much competition ahead of him either, as C. Taylor is an average RB at best. Add the fact that he’s in the NFC north, and I’d say he had a good chance to have a strong season.

So what about these new rookie running backs? There are a lot of them and one or two should have good seasons…the question is, who?

Darren McFadden 6′2″ 210lbs played at Arkansas
NFL Comparison: Steven Jackson
Drafted 1st Rd 4th overall- An inside runner with good size and power. Average hands, decent vision, but never had a full work load in Arkansas. Only averaged 12-15 carries per game. Lacks experience in pass blocking, and has only decent vision to find the holes.
O-Line: Below average.

• Despite Oakland being in the top 10 for average rushing yards per game, this o-line is weak. Robert Gallery has been moved to guard after being a huge bust at tackle, whereas new free agents C Jon Wade and LT K Harris will be asked to come in and try to help with the pass protection.
• Why not draft some more help to ensure your 2 huge paychecks (QB J.Russell and RB D.McFadden) will have solid seasons? Teams live and die with the offensive line.

Projected Carries per Game: 10-12

• Coach Lane Kiffin will feel the heat to put McFadden in early, but remember how long they waited on J.Russell? With running backs M.Bush and J.Fargas not willing to just step aside, watch for a 3 man rotation.

Where people will draft him: 2nd to high 3rd round
Where he should go: 4th round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 900 yards 6 tds

 

Jonathan Stewart 5′11″ 235lbs played at Oregon
NFL Comparison: Marion Barber
Drafted 1st RD 13th overall- A tank with great speed hits the hole and won’t go down. Has great balance and can push the line for those extra couple of yards. Good blocker with decent hands; only real knock is that no one can get a good look at him in a pro style offense. Played in a hybrid spread type offense in Oregon, and has had toe turf which killed his fantasy hype.
O-Line: Good…could be great

• The Panthers got ripped off in a deal with the Eagles gaining an extra 1st round pick this year to draft OT J.Otah. Carolina has a make or break year, as John Fox is feeling the pressure to take this team back to stardom.
• Jordan Gross and T.Wharton played the whole season, whereas the rest of the line was moved around a lot. With 2nd year Ryan Kalil from USC, and new rookie Jeff Otah, the Panthers could have things in place to form a very powerful line for this season. Add a monster RB, and Stewart could be a goal line stud.

Projected carries per game: 6-7 to start the season, 12-15 to end the season

• The toe injury is doing nothing for his fantasy value, and is even making DeAngelo Williams look better each week. Stewart is a Fantasy Sleeper, who could have great season if you can be a little patient.

Where people will draft him: 3rd-4th round
Where he should go: 3rd round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 750 yards 9 tds

 

Matt Forte 6′1″ 221 lbs played at Tulane
NFL Comparison: Correll Buckhalter
Drafted 2nd RD 44th overall- Not flashy, but gets the job done. Has good size and speed. Smart player with a head on his shoulders; not a huge college name, but a good fit for the Bears. Opportunity is knocking in a weak Chicago backfield.
O-line: Average

• Gridiron Experts would love to see the Bears have a strong season, but there’s not a lot to get excited about. The offensive line is getting old; insert 1st round pick Chris Williams from Vanderbilt and things should be better… but not great.
• Can the Bears get one more year out of their veteran group? If so, Forte could be a great player in all fantasy leagues.

Projected Carries per Game: 15-17

• As of now, the starter hasn’t been named. You would think that Forte gets the nod, as there really isn’t anyone better to take the job.

Where people will draft him: 3rd-4th round
Where he should go: Low 4th round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 550 yards 5 tds

 
Kevin Smith 6′1″ 211 lbs played at Central Florida
NFL Comparison: Rudi Johnson
Drafted 3rd RD 64th overall- Great footwork and balance has him fighting for extra yards every carry. Deceptive quickness and cuts, great at turning the corner. Like most rookie RB’s, K.Smith lacks blocking skills, but he has great hands which will keep him on the field for 3rd downs.
O-Line: Below average

• The Lions drafted OT Gosder Cherilus in the first round to help the O-line, although this unit could still be better. New coordinator Jim Colletto is the complete opposite type of play caller than Mike Martz, and he wants to rebuild the running game.

Projected Carries per Game: 15-20

• As of now Kevin Smith looks to be the starter, although Detroit seems to change on the fly a lot looking for the quick fix.
• It’s Detroit, and people want the big names, but Kevin Smith has a mid range sleeper name tag. Bench player with good upside.

Where people will draft him: 5th round
Where he should go: 4th round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 900 yards 4 tds

 

 

***check back as we cut up more RB Rookies