A Dose of Fantasy Reality: Week 3

Tarvaris Jackson, Kerry Collins, Matt Cassel, and Donovan McNabb. The Who’s Who of bad fantasy football quarterbacks in 2011 through two weeks. These are the only four quarterbacks who have scored fewer points than a quarterback most considered an every week starter before the season began. Bad company for our mystery quarterback.

But let’s forget our mystery quarterback for now; we’ll get back to him later.

The upcoming weeks will be the most difficult. I don’t believe in a must-win game until it’s absolutely a single-elimination game (ask the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals how their must-win games have gone this week). However, you don’t want to start your fantasy football league winless after three weeks. So you’re faced with a tough decision: continue to stick with your elite players you’ve invested so much in who haven’t produced or take a chance on those waiver wire pickups who have produced two weeks in a row.

Honestly most fantasy football analysts will tell you the same thing: Week 3 is too early to give up on your elite players. But it’s difficult to listen to that advice when you’re staring 0-3 in the face. Depending on your league’s schedule, you could be in a major hole with almost as much as one-fourth of your season already over.

At this point, I think it all depends on your team and your weekly matchup. Sometimes you have to take a big risk to reap a big reward. Do you want to sit any of the players listed below? Probably not. As I’ve said the first two weeks, you most likely don’t have a better option on your bench.

Back to our mystery quarterback now.

Does that mean you’re crazy if you bench Ben Roethlisberger—our mystery quarterback, who has struggled mightily in 2011—for Ryan Fitzpatrick this week? I don’t think so. I’m losing confidence in Roethlisberger to be a top ten quarterback. Right now he isn’t exactly inspiring confidence in anyone, including his teammates. I consider Roddy White to be close to the same territory as Big Ben if he the receiver struggles for the third straight week. Would I sit White in favor of Meachem? I’d probably kick myself all weekend. But will I be surprised if Meachem puts up similar numbers as White for the third straight week and possibly outscores him? Nope.

Don’t give up on your elite players yet. I like to think of Week 3 as a crucial week for elite players in fantasy football. Keep the faith, but don’t be afraid of going with your gut.

Let’s look at the ten players I expect to struggle in Week 3, players I might consider benching if you have the right backups.

1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT (@ IND) – This sounds like a cupcake matchup. The Colts are terrible without Peyton Manning; however, the problem hasn’t really been the defense. Sure, Indy gave up 34 points to the Texans and 27 to the Browns, but the defense has been solid—it just hasn’t received any help from the offense. An elite quarterback like Peyton Manning can do wonders for an average defense. The Steelers’ offensive line has been horrendous this season and the Colts’ pass rush is the strength of its average defense. In a similar cupcake matchup last week against Seattle, Big Ben only managed one passing touchdown. I expect the Steelers to build an early lead and give a heavy dose of carries to its running backs. Prediction: 225 passing yards, 1 TDs, 0 INT.
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI (vs. NYG) – The Eagles have a lot of explosive weapons with McCoy, Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin, and I think McCoy is the most underrated yet consistent of them all. McCoy has enjoyed success against the Giants in his first two seasons in the league, posting big numbers in two of the four games. McCoy is certainly never overused in the run game but sees plenty of passes out of the backfield. I think the Giants may stun the Eagles in this game, grab an early lead, force Philadelphia to play catch-up, and throw its offense into disarray, which will hurt McCoy’s production. Prediction: 65 total yards, 0 TDs.
3. Roddy White, WR, ATL (@ TB) – No elite receiver has underperformed as much as White in 2011. He hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards receiving combined through two games and only has one touchdown. The early season schedule is brutal for the Falcons and White, and it doesn’t get any easier in Week 3. White will be matched up against one of the elite cover corners in the NFL, Aqib Talib. I expect the Falcons to give Tampa Bay a heavy dose of Michael Turner, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. Prediction: 60 yards, 0 TDs.
4. Michael Vick, QB, PHI (vs. NYG) – I haven’t been impressed with Vick during a single game of 2011, including the preseason. He looks antsy in the pocket. I am seriously questioning whether his confidence was not severely damaged in the preseason and the effects are carrying over into the real season. After last week’s injury, I expect Andy Reid to be conservative with Vick, try to protect him, and have him stay in the pocket. Vick has a small frame and can’t continue to take a beating like he has the first two weeks. Trust me: the Giants would like nothing better than to knock Vick out of the game for an extended period of time. New York’s secondary has been atrocious, but I think the pass rush forces Vick into same bad decisions. Prediction: 200 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble.
5. Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG (@ PHI) – Have you watched the Giants’ offense the first two weeks of the season? It’s more dysfunctional than the relationships on Jersey Shore. Nothing is in sync, especially the passing game. I expect the Giants to try to control the ball with a power running game against the Eagles’ aggressive blitzing defense. Hicks may snag a short-yardage touchdown as he did on Monday Night, but I think Nnamdi Asomugha will keep him locked down and make him a nonfactor. Prediction: 70 yards, 0 TDs.
6. Matt Forte, RB, CHI (vs. GB) – The Bears are a mess. Jay Cutler is openly fuming about Mike Martz’s offensive scheme, which forces Cutler to take a handful of unnecessary hits every week. Not to mention the offensive line is possibly one of the worst units in the NFL. Mix that in with Forte’s disgust with not getting a contract extension and Martz’s lack of willingness to run the ball and you have a disaster. Green Bay has been porous on defense but has enough pieces to slow frustrate Cutler and slow down Forte. I’m not sure the Bears could score a rushing touchdown from the one-yard line if they had ten chances. Prediction: 80 total yards, 0 TDs.
7. Ryan Mathews, RB, SD (vs. KC) – I’ll admit it: I was a big Mathews fan last year. I thought he was the real deal. The joke was on me. Fast-forward a year after a couple of solid performances and most fantasy football owners have jumped back on the bandwagon. Most fantasy owners have short memories—I don’t. I still feel burned by Mathews’ horrible performance last year, and I’m not ready to believe he’s turned the corner as an every week starter. Kansas City isn’t a juggernaut, but I’m being cautious with a player who hasn’t proven himself for three consecutive weeks in his career. Prediction: 55 yards, 0 TDs.
8. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL (vs. WSH) – With Miles Austin injured, the Cowboys have no choice but to throw to the talented second-year receiver, right? With a number of ‘Boys injured and Romo’s status in doubt, I think Bryant could be frustrated early and taken out of the game mentally. Washington’s defense has been stout in the first two weeks, but this is a good measuring-stick game for both teams, and I don’t trust Bryant to handle the pressure and perform on Monday Night as the man. Prediction: 65 yards, 0 TDs.
9. Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE (@ BUF) – With Aaron Hernadez’s injury and possible absence for a handful of weeks, everyone seems to think Gronkowski’s numbers will improve. I’m not one of those people. I think both tight ends relied on each other to get open. The Patriots don’t have another tight end as explosive as Hernandez, so defenses can focus on slowing down Gronkowski in the middle of the field. It would almost be a shocker to see the sure-handed tight end not score a touchdown, but I think the Patriots will struggle a little early adjusting to life without Hernandez. Prediction: 45 yards, 0 TDs.
10. Matthew Stafford, QB, DET (@ MIN) – I’m a huge Stafford fan. I’ll admit: after watching him at Georgia, I didn’t understand why he the Lions drafted him first overall. He obviously had all the physical skills, but his decision-making skills were horrific. That’s not something you can fix overnight. As crazy as it sounds, I think Stafford’s injuries have been a blessing in disguise, allowing him to spend more time studying the game and learning how to dissect defenses. Stafford and the Lions have been lights out the first two weeks, but I think Stafford may face his first resistance this week on the road against a division rival. Prediction: 270 passing yards, 1 TDs, 2 INTs.