Gridiron Experts

Keeper Targets and Trash

There’s a certain science to winning a keeper pool, not only do you have to be able to recognize fresh talent early on, you also have to be able to tell when your players are over the hill and just wasting a roster spot in your line-up. The 09-10 campaign has almost come to a conclusion and by now you pretty much know the production rate of each player in the fantasy realm. Here’s a look at some young players that you might want to take a look at entering your next year’s keeper draft, and some older guys you may want to get rid of.

While most Keeper pools have an average of 2-3 players, some are reaching the 8-9′s these days. Value is always seen on the offensive teams, but age and potential need to remembered when making your decisions.

I’m going to avoid some of the obvious picks, so remember if you have the opportunity to keep any of these guys or get them in the draft be well warned: Beanie Wells, Knowsean Moreno, Shonn Greene, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews, Jarius Byrd, Aaron Curry, Brian Cushing, Kenny Britt, Lesean McCoy, Donald Brown, Brandon Pettigrew, Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez indefinitely.  Here I’ve built a team for you of the players that you may be interested in keeping or targeting next draft:

• QB Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins: it will be interesting to see what he can do in a full 16 games.

• QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos: alright he’s not so young but he couldn’t be held out of this.

• RB Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys: MBIII’s decline and 7.1 career YPC.

• RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: could be a bust, but can’t ignore the potential.

• WR Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning’s new favourite target?

• WR Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers: Will fill in very nicely as Ward fades.

• WR Mario Manningham, New York Giants: Plaxi-who?

• TE Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles: Will continue to be a leading target in Philadelphia.

• LB James Laurinaitis, St.Louis Rams: STUD!

• DB Darelle Revis, New York Jets: I have a well deserved man crush on the best young CB in the game.

Honorable mentions: RB Justin Forsett Seattle Seahawks, RB Ryan Moats Houston Texans, WR Mohammed Massoquoi Cleveland Browns, WR Hakeem Nicks New York Giants, WR Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Jaguars, WR  Johnny Knox Chicago Bears, TE Zach Miller Oakland Raiders, LB Ray Maualuga Cincinnati Bengals, DB Vontae Davis Miami Dolphins.

The other part of being successful in a keeper league is being able to recognize when it’s time to take out the trash. So likewise here’s a team of players you may want to consider letting go or not even looking at next season:

• QB Marc Bulger, St.Louis Rams: Too many injuries, possible QB draft selection?

• QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 TD’s this season, enough said.

• RB Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: Train-wreck.

• RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: Are NFC East RB’s cursed?

• WR Antwan Randel-el, Washington Redskins: Never really was, never really will be.

• WR Musin Muhammed, Carolina Panthers: too inconsistent.

• WR Roy E. Williams: I never want to hear the word keeper next to Roy Williams’ name again.

• TE Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers: Two solid seasons of production but Finley is now stepping up.

• LB Eric Barton, Cleveland Browns:  In his 12^th season putting up tackles in the 100’s is very unlikely.

• DB Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers: Too high of a price tag, there is much better value at DB.

Honorable Mentions: QB Vince Young Tennessee Titans ,RB Ladanian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers, RB Marion Barber Dallas Cowboys, WR Torry Holt Jacksonville Jaguars, WR Lavaerneus Coles Cincinnati Bengals, DB Champ Bailey Denver Broncos.

Considering the average NFL career is the shortest amongst all professional sports at about 4 years, it’s both astounding that some of these “over the hill” guys have continued to perform up until this point and no wonder that the league is filled with young talent.  One of the biggest mistakes I see made in keeper pools is the serious overestimation of a certain players worth; 1000 yards or 100 tackles are always sexy stats but if you do just a little homework you’ll be able to pick out a nice selection of players who will reach these marks (or close to them) for a much lower price tag. Keep in mind when deciding to keep a player for the next season that you must factor in everything else on that team. For instance if it is a QB take a look at the RB, O-Line, and WR scenario for the upcoming season; a big loss at left tackle and backup running back can mean worse things than you think and you may not want to risk wasting a keeper slot on that player. Weigh that players potential (including the factors) against 3 other options at the same position for the next season; if you can safely say to yourself that 2 or 3 of those comparisons will do just as well, don’t waste the valuable keeper spot.

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