Gridiron Experts

How many of you were guilty of keeping once fantasy studs Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis or Willie Parker last season in you keeper league.

Embarrassed ? don’t be, it’s not your fault. Sure injuries took their toll on these guys, but they were once game breakers that won you fantasy weeks on a regular basis, now they’re just dead weight in many keeper leagues. Of course age was always in the back of your mind on whether you should let these guys go, but the risk was worth the reward….at least that’s what you thought.

Willie Parker lost carries to R.Mendenhall and Portis was hurt almost all year. Guys like Brian Westbrook were a coin flip too many people, as his hands are top notch and could at least be used in ways to still rack up points through the air. Unfortunately Westbrook did neither and was even beat out in the rushing yards category by a white quarterback; Aaron Rodgers (true stat).

So was there a lesson that was learned here? Did you tell yourself never again? If you did, we applaud you, as passing on big name players in keeping leagues is a difficult and risky task.

Not all veteran running backs were terrible in 2009, leaving the odd gambling fantasy owner kicking himself. Thomas Jones is 31, and is definitely one of those guys you looked at and told yourself “that has got to be all he’s got left”. But Jones finds ways to make a near empty tank of gas last an entire season.

Thomas Jones had 1402 rushing yards and 14 TD’s in the 2009 season. I can bet you there were more than a few fantasy football owners that threw this prize fish back into the waters.

He was not the only running back that was suppose to move out of the way for a rookie; Joseph Addai may be thought as an older guy but at 26 the Colts drafted Donald Brown to take some the slack off Addai’s shoulders. People assumed that the torch was about to be passed by mid-season after Addai’s performance in the 08 season. But nothing could be further from the truth, Joseph Addai was a touchdown machine with 10 on the ground and 3 threw the air. It’s safe to say he didn’t like the addition of a 1st round running back looking over his shoulders and was determined to have a better year.

I know what you’re thinking, this means nothing now. A new season of studying and searching for fantasy sleepers is a grueling task and what ever happened last year, has very little to do with this up coming year. I agree…..to a point.

This year I encourage you to think outside the box. What I mean by that is stop starring at the rushing yards and touchdown totals and concentrate more on the stats that can effect a players overall surroundings. Study things like offensive line games played as a unit, a season of juggling around these monster run blockers has a huge affect on a running backs year. The O-lines that play together all year are well oiled machines, reading and communicating coverage’s perfectly pre-snap, making way less mis-stakes than an offensive line that is playing musical chairs. You never see a running back put up huge numbers with a bunch of make-shift fill-ins.

Also try to subtrack the home-run big play. What I mean is, when looking at stats, consider what the players numbers would be if they didn’t break that 40-50+ yard run. What would their numbers be like if someone had just shut down that one big play. These workhorse running backs that pick up a solid yards per rushing attempt might just be a little unlucky for that big home run touchdown. Surely I’m not talking about Chris Johnson, but look at guys like Cedric Benson, Pierre Thomas and Beanie Wells, all had good seasons with respectable numbers yet averaged a very low big run plays per game. They all were getting 4-5 yards per carry yet didn’t have that huge weekly highlight reel play that shot them up into elite fantasy rankings.

Is it because they don’t have the skills? hell no, this is the NFL, everyone can run 40 yards in 4 seconds, it might be as simple as the strength of the defensive opponents that they had to face that year or an unlucky break where the safety was able to wrap things up. Either way don’t draft a the player that has had numbers that are skewed by a few long runs, draft a guy that can get you what you need week in and week out.

My 2 cents

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