Fantasy Football Strategy: Buy Low On First Rounders

As I mentioned before in my last article (Fantasy Strategy: Being Patient, Understanding Value), going 0-3 or 1-2 in the first three weeks is not a complete disaster and end to your season. It sucks, sure. But it’s not the end. Some first round picks might be the main culprits to your fantasy failures. Take a look at the first round picks in a 10-man league just 3-4 weeks ago:

• Adrian Peterson- Only cracked 100 yards once and  his coach has forgotten about him
• Arian Foster-Hamstring tighter than a violin string and Ben Tate has emerged
• Ray Rice – The only one of the top 5 to live up to the hype
• Chris Johnson – Got paid & under-performing. Shocking. When will GMs learn?
• Jamaal Charles- Let’s take a moment of silence for my dynasty team’s ACL. (Pause)
• Mike Vick- More fragile than a 13 year old girl’s feelings.
• Andre Johnson- No complaints. Complete beast.
• McCoy- Will already probably be a top 3 pick next year. Better with Vick in lineup.
• R. Mendenhall- The exact opposite of Andre. Lots of complaints. Not a beast at all.
• Aaron Rodgers- Totally worth his draft position and gets better every game.

So out of the top 10 picks in most drafts, only half of them have lived up to expectations or exceeded them. You have the same odds as flipping a coin. Whether it’s injuries (why Jamaal? why?? You had to get that extra half yard?? Really???) or flat out ineptitude, the fantasy scoreboard doesn’t care.

After showing the glaring poor performance of these fantasy through-week-three-busts, where am I going with this you ask? Well, I’m going the exact opposite direction than you think. My advice: Trade for these guys. While Charles is out of course, Foster, CJ, Vick, and Mendenhall are all still playing, still starting when healthy, and have an all-time low value right now.

Chris Johnson’s rushing totals the last 3 years: 1,228 (2008), 2,006 (2009), and 1,364 (2010). Will he all of a sudden through no real difference other than a better quarterback and a missed training camp not rush for AT LEAST 1,000 yards (which would signify an almost 27% drop-off from last year)? Of course he will. Teams can’t keep a talent like that bottled up all season. Well, considering he has a TOTAL of 98 rushing yards through 3 weeks (that’s Lendale White numbers), he basically has 13 weeks to get a minimum of 900 yards. Same can be said for his TD totals. His lowest output has been 9 TDs. He currently stands at zero. Say he drops to 7. So from here on out, you are essentially guaranteed 900+ yards (not including any receiving) and 7-9 TDs. Pretty good I’d say from a guy many people have already given up on and declared a bust.

Foster might be more of a risk because I’m afraid he’s involved now in a dreaded RBBC with Ben Tate. Tate has shown too much talent and potential, while Kubiak, a Shanahan disciple, will continue to torture fantasy owners everywhere with random carries distribution from game to game between Foster and Tate with no rhyme or reason. Should be fun reading articles all year and hearing fantasy owners complain. Really. I really want to listen to everyone complain about their poor luck and about Kubiak. Can’t wait. But Foster’s value is so low right now, and his upside is what we saw last year. With the Texans now in a surprisingly horrible AFC South, I still say it’s worth trading for him since it will likely cost you below market value. Remember, it’s all about value.

The same concept for Johnson can be looked at in reference to Vick and Mendenhall. While Vick is more explosive than Johnson, he’s infinitely more injury prone. In the dictionary next to “High-Risk/High Reward” you’ll see a picture of a Bernie Madoff’s business plan, but right next to that you’ll see a picture of Vick. These first round busts typically are thought of negatively because the bar has been set high on them, and justifiably so. However, pure production-wise, regardless of name, they are still very solid with potential to be exceptional. Remember, it’s a long year, so don’t go trade Johnson for Matt Forte or Jahvid Best. Unless you’re in my league. Then forget I ever said anything.