Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
NFL Odds Makers:
Opening Line: Colts -6.5
Current Line: Colts -7

What’s On The Line:

The Jim Caldwell era begins in Indianapolis and his first contest will be a battle against a division rival. It’s a game that the Colts are expected to win, which means a couple of things: if the Colts win, it’s status quo in the Tony Dungy-to-Caldwell changeover but if the Colts lose, all of the sudden there are some concerns in the new era.

For Jacksonville, they are trying to forget a miserable 5-11 season and they are in a tough spot here. On the road against the best team in the division doesn’t bode well. That collar is getting awful tight for Jack Del Rio.

Who Has The Edge:

While the Colts made some changes to the coaching staff, on the field they are the same, steady team. Peyton Manning leads the way and as long as he’s there, the Colts will be a factor on the Super Bowl odds. Last season, there was too much weight put on his shoulders and his favorite target, Marvin Harrison, expired while the running game was nowhere to be found.

The Colts addressed that latter point by drafting running back Donald Brown in the first-round of the NFL draft and a lot of people looking at the NFL week 1 fantasy matchups are curious to see how it works out. It will probably hurt fantasy players seeing a time share between Brown and Joseph Addai but the bottom line is that the Colts will run the ball a lot more efficiently this year.

For Jacksonville, they have some issues. They had three major concerns heading into the offseason and they are still big question marks. They need help at wide receiver and although they signed Torry Holt, it’s probably not enough (and it may not even be adequate). The offensive line has been overhauled and four of the five starters are new. Going into Indianapolis, they will have two rookies on the line. Lastly, the defense turned soft last year because the defensive was ineffective and there are no signs that that will change.

Adding those three points up, the Colts should be able to run the ball, everyone knows they’ll be able to pass the ball and the Jaguars won’t be able to match points.  Unless the Colts are rusty, look for them to win and cover.

Stats

-Jaguars are 4-8 ATS against division opponents in the last three years

-Jaguars are 17-43 straight up since 1992 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 poitns

-Colts are 5-1 straight up as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points in last three seasons

-Colts are 12-4 in last 16 against Jaguars