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Evaluating ESPN’s Top 200

Too Early for Fantasy Rankings? ….never.

ESPN.com has put together their pre-season Fantasy Football Top 200 Rankings, and we’re going to go over them with a fine-tooth comb. You may think it’s too premature to be making such a rankings list, but Gridiron Experts fired together a quick first round Mock in January, so beat that father time. (click on the link above to use as a guide)

Thoughts On The Top 20 

At first glance things seem right where they should be, with Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew at the top of this list. But some new faces are emerging:  Rashard Mendenhall ranked at #11, Aaron Rodgers has fired up to #13, and Shonn Greene cracked the top 20.

We are very high on Aaron Rodgers, but this list may create a few objections with him becoming the number two fantasy quarterback overall. Brady and Manning owners are just too accustomed to having that elite status, although the bitter truth is people hate change. Rodgers has had back to back 4000 yard seasons, despite a questionable offensive line. With the recent selection of OT Bryan Bulaga in the 2010 draft, and another year with his young receivers to gel, we would even move him above the (unlucky) number 13 to just below Drew Brees.

Rashard Mendenhall is getting mixed reviews from football fans; even those living in the Pittsburgh area aren’t totally sold on his fantasy value (check out our very own T.J. Jenkins: Mendenhall Fantasy Potential ).

With a tough NFL Schedule, and being without Roethlisberger for the first 4 games, fantasy owners will need to have lowered expectations heading into the start of the season. Even with the addition of 1st round pick  Center Maurkice Pouncey, we’re not sold on having him in the top 15.

Shonn Greene will be an interesting fantasy player this season. Those in keeper leagues may want to see if he’s buried somewhere on their bench, as his overnight fantasy value jump has owners doing the happy dance. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are out of the way, and the age and injuries of L. Tomlinson give Shonn Greene a green light of opportunity to have a very exciting 2010 season.

Thoughts From 20 T0 50

This second tier of players is stacked with fantasy value. Seeing names like Peyton Manning, Calvin Johnson, Tom Brady, and Miles Austin all ranked from 20 to 24 is not by any means the earliest you’ll see these players selected.  All have huge value and would not hear laughs for being drafted much higher. Some players that do seem higher or lower than they should be in the 20 to 50 range are: WR Steve Smith (CAR), WR Sidney Rice, and RB LeSean McCoy.

Steve Smith from the Panthers is done in my opinion, I am crossing him off my board now. On May 12th, Smith will be celebrating his 31st birthday. His quarterback is not even on this list, and his on field support is bottom of the barrel. Unless Jimmy Clausen can step in and reignite this receivers career, I wouldn’t draft him above T.J. Houshmandzadeh at #78 or Braylon Edwards at #81.

Sidney Rice on the other hand is ranked far too low. I’m guessing there will be a major revision with breaking Favre news, but even if re-sorted by position, Rice is currently ranked as the 13th overall WR on this list.  The Viking receiver had 1312 yards with 8 TD’s in 2009.

LeSean McCoy has been rumored to be a completely different player from a year ago. Getting a full off-season of training will really help McCoy as a second year under-sized RB.  The Eagles didn’t add any real depth to the offensive line, but as a dual threat McCoy now has the starting job and will be used everywhere in this offense. The Eagles love to throw the ball to their RB’s, either in flats or setting up the screen play. McCoy should see even more receptions than from his rookie season (40 rec in 2009). Currently I’d have McCoy ranked around the mid 20′s.

Thoughts From 50+

• C.J. Spiller- Gridiron Experts is almost unanimous with the Bills first round pick. We liked Spiller heading into the NFL Draft, but with a loaded Bills backfield and so many other holes on the offensive, you need to think Darren McFadden-like numbers from his rookie year (too high at #65)
• Jason Witten- How did Witten go from a top 3 Tight End to 7th and 74th overall? Yes, Witten had a poor fantasy season, but with the emergence of Austin and new rookie Bryant to worry about, teams will not be able to shadow Romo’s favorite target this season. (needs to be about 10-15 spots higher)
• Dwayne Bowe was suspended last year, missing 4 games in a critical point for fantasy owners. He is a top fantasy receiver but on a bad offensive team. Having him ranked 57th overall and as the 21st WR on the board is stupid, as his play making skills can win people weeks. Bowe needs to be up much higher.
• ESPN has the Philadelphia Eagles as the number 2 defense on this board. That’s a joke, right? The Eagles weakest link last season was their defense; even with the complete make-over they are not by any means repaired. The Birds DEF needs to be the 6th or 7th defense at best.
• Mike Wallace has found himself a starting role after the offseason of headaches, his ranking of #72 overall should be a little higher.