DraftKings Lineup Advice: Divisional Round

DraftKings Advice

All season long, Gridiron Experts has talked about the ability to maximize value by finding 3 times a players DraftKings salary. In cash games, where it’s safe to assume that 150 daily fantasy points scored will win you money, simple math tells us that we need to triple (3X) the DraftKings given salary of $50K to get there (3X $50,000/1000= 150 Points).

As we are not publishing fantasy projections for the NFL playoffs with fantasy football season being over, I thought this week as a helpful guide I would talk about the potential of some of this weekends players chances of reaching that 3X goal in Draftkings. I’ve gone ahead and done the math for you to make life easier.

Last Week Recap

I got to say, last week was solid. I not only made a few nice sleeper picks and predictions but I made some decent money playing in Multipliers. I’m really digging the 10X boosters. You can read last week’s article here.

Predictions I Got Right

  • Aaron Rodgers will hit his 3X goal of 23.7 points (he crushed it)
  • Eli Manning wasn’t worth the risk
  • Brock Osweiler, bang for buck will produce. The Texans played a solid game, and surprisingly Osweiler didn’t turn the ball over and reached his 3X goal. What made things even better, was those who added the Texans QB to their lineups saved Draftkings salary and got more production than R.Willson (16.66), Roethlisberger (14.88), Eli Manning (15.06) and Matt Stafford (9.70)
  • I nailed the sleeper pick of Dolphins RB2 Damion Williams out producing Jay Ajayi
  • I talked about Zach Zenner being a favorite of mine; I thought it would be hard for him to crack his 3X his goal of 13.5 points. He just hit it at 14.8
  • “Kenny Stills 3X goal of 11.3 points could be achieved with just one big catch” – He did have a big 36-yard grab, but it was his five receptions for 82 yards that got the job done.
  • I said I liked Davante Adams to shine, which he did. He didn’t have a Randal Cobb stat line, but Adams was still great with eight receptions 125 yards (+ bonus) and a touchdown.
  • Sleeper TE pick Will Tye from the Giants hit his 3X goal with 4 receptions for 66 yards.
  • Sleeper TE Mychal Rivera had 4 receptions for 31 yards. His 3X goal was 7.5 points; he got 7.1 – close enough, I counting it. 
  • Random Prediction: Packers/Giants would be the highest scoring game of the week despite the Vegas lines.

Predictions I Got Wrong

  • I didn’t think Le’Veon Bell was worth spending $10,300 Draftkings bucks on and I didn’t think he’d reach his 3X goal of 30.9 points.
  • I talked about how Thomas Rawls had a great matchup, but I mentioned he had the potential to burn people. There were hints that I like him, but I got to mark this as a pick I missed.
  • Anquan Boldin. Dude was a mess.
  • I said I liked DeAndre Hopkins and thought he’d hit is 3X goal. Nuk came very close. I should get half point for this prediction.

DraftKings Quarterback 3x Goals

TM Name Salary 3X Goal Avg PPR
Aaron Rodgers 8200 24.6 26.029
Tom Brady 7600 22.8 22.963
Matt Ryan 7000 21 23.404
Russell Wilson 6900 20.7 18.16
Ben Roethlisberger 6500 19.5 19.603
Dak Prescott 6000 18 18.805
Alex Smith 5400 16.2 15.985
Brock Osweiler 5000 15 12.763

This week features two AFC playoff games with over/under lines of 44.5 and two NFC games (both in domes) with over/under lines in the 50’s. Keep that in mind when picking your flex player.

Last week I was willing to take a shot with a cheaper QB to free up money to spend on my WR’s. This week I feel it would be foolish to gamble with such an approach. I want nothing to do with Osweiler, Alex Smith and I’m not too crazy about Ben Roethlisberger either.

The best bargain of the week, in my opinion, is Dak Prescott from the Dallas Cowboys. It really kills me to say that being an Eagles fan, but you got to bet with your head, not with your heart. The Cowboys are rested and should be able to lean on their running game to help move the chains. I expect a balanced gameplan, one that will keep Packers defenders always guessing. The Cowboys haven’t been conservative with their QB rookie sensation, so why would they stop now. I expect Dak Prescott to easily hit his 3x Goal.

DraftKings Running Back 3X Goal

TM Name Salary 3X Goal Avg PPR
Le’Veon Bell 10500 31.5 28.523
Ezekiel Elliott 8500 25.5 23.16
Thomas Rawls 6900 20.7 10.47
Devonta Freeman 5900 17.7 18.194
LeGarrette Blount 5800 17.4 15.369
Lamar Miller 5600 16.8 14.493
Ty Montgomery 5300 15.9 9.644
Spencer Ware 5200 15.6 14.486
Tevin Coleman 4500 13.5 14.931
Christine Michael 4300 12.9 9.106
C.J. Prosise 4200 12.6 10.167
Dion Lewis 3900 11.7 7.814
Alex Collins 3500 10.5 3.358
James White 3400 10.2 10.106
Charcandrick West 3400 10.2 6.273
Alfred Blue 3300 9.9 4.227
DeAngelo Williams 3200 9.6 9.391
Aaron Ripkowski 3200 9.6 3.282
James Develin 3000 9 0.3
Jonathan Grimes 3000 9 3.264
Brandon Bolden 3000 9 0.279
Most of my predictions last week were bang on, but I was wrong about Le’Veon Bell. I still don’t feel he was worth the price, but nevertheless, he showed up big. So am I on the bandwagon? Do I think he continues running over teams with his impressive 5.8 yards per carry average? Or do I stick to the penny-pinching conservative approach?

Bell’s 3x goal is 31.5 points, which is slightly higher than last week. The Chiefs also only allowed ten rushing touchdowns all season, ranking them tied for 4th in the NFL. Lastly, Kansas City is rested and playing at home, something that hasn’t happened in the playoffs since 2011. To summarize… No, I don’t think Bell hit’s his 3X goal of 31.5 points. He’ll have a solid game, but I believe he falls short, getting around 25 points.

LeGarrette Blount seems to be an excellent bargain this week against the Texans. With a 16 point spread, the Pat’s will likely give Blount more than a few opportunities to score, that along with most of the 4th quarter to run over a tired Houston bunch.

Christine Michael is very interesting. If you remember, his energy really lit a fire under the team when he came into the game. It was, at least the way I remember it, when the Packers really started to pull away from the Giants. His 3x Goal is 12.9 points. This prediction really depends on Ty Montgomery. The injury that sidelined him for a portion of Sunday’s second half was to his ankle.

TD vulture threat: Charcandrick West. He is the Damien Williams of this week

 

DraftKings Wide Receivers 3X Goal

TM Name Salary 3X Goal Avg PPR
Antonio Brown 9600 28.8 21.981
Julio Jones 8400 25.2 18.727
Doug Baldwin 8100 24.3 17.271
Jordy Nelson 7400 22.2 19
Davante Adams 7000 21 17.012
Julian Edelman 6800 20.4 14.894
Dez Bryant 6600 19.8 14.615
DeAndre Hopkins 5800 17.4 13.006
Randall Cobb 5700 17.1 13.493
Tyreek Hill 5500 16.5 13.625
Cole Beasley 5000 15 11.813
Malcolm Mitchell 4700 14.1 6.864
Taylor Gabriel 4400 13.2 10.769
Jeremy Maclin 4300 12.9 9.125
Paul Richardson 4100 12.3 4.381
Mohamed Sanu 4000 12 9.363
Chris Hogan 3900 11.7 9.06
Eli Rogers 3900 11.7 9.421
Geronimo Allison 3900 11.7 4.182
Michael Floyd 3800 11.4 7.92
Will Fuller V 3600 10.8 9.46
Danny Amendola 3500 10.5 5.858
Aldrick Robinson 3400 10.2 4.206
Jermaine Kearse 3300 9.9 5.965
Brice Butler 3200 9.6 3.494
Terrance Williams 3100 9.3 7.9
Matthew Slater 3000 9 -0.038
Keith Mumphery 3000 9 1.408
Wendall Williams 3000 9 3.833
Devin Hester 3000 9 -0.077
Eric Weems 3000 9 0
Nick Williams 3000 9 5.45
Justin Hardy 3000 9 4.081
Tanner McEvoy 3000 9 2.448
Kasen Williams 3000 9 0
Darrius Heyward-Bey 3000 9 3.617
Cobi Hamilton 3000 9 4.533
Albert Wilson 3000 9 5.119
Chris Conley 3000 9 6.063
Sammie Coates 3000 9 5.393
De’Anthony Thomas 3000 9 1.117
Demarcus Robinson 3000 9 0
Demarcus Ayers 3000 9 6.733
Trevor Davis 3000 9 0.945
Lucky Whitehead 3000 9 1
Jeff Janis 3000 9 2.124

Jordy Nelson’s injury status changes the Packers WR value immensely. I think there’s some real value in Cobb and Adams again if Jordy’s out. Overall, I have a bad feeling about the big names and their 3X goals this weekend. Everyone should be productive, but as we insert four rested teams with strong defenses, I think building your lineup around some of the elite WR talents this week may burn you.

I like value picks this week like Randall Cobb, Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel, Jeremy Maclin and Chris Hogan. All should reach their 3x goal and safe you some DFS dollars in the process.

DraftKings Tight Ends 3x Goals

TM Name Salary 3X Goal Avg PPR
Travis Kelce 6100 18.3 15.063
Jimmy Graham 4900 14.7 12.176
Martellus Bennett 4000 12 11.069
Jared Cook 3900 11.7 7.773
Ladarius Green 3800 11.4 9.567
C.J. Fiedorowicz 3600 10.8 8.713
Jason Witten 3500 10.5 9.769
Austin Hooper 2900 8.7 4.579
Jesse James 2800 8.4 5.435
Ryan Griffin 2600 7.8 6.535
Matt Lengel 2500 7.5 1.7
Stephen Anderson 2500 7.5 1.879
Luke Willson 2500 7.5 3.442
Levine Toilolo 2500 7.5 3.213
D.J. Tialavea 2500 7.5 3.55
Brandon Williams 2500 7.5 0.329
Tyler Ott 2500 7.5 0
Nick Vannett 2500 7.5 0.689
Joshua Perkins 2500 7.5 1.65
David Johnson 2500 7.5 1
James Winchester 2500 7.5 0

Last week’s Tight End group really disappointed daily fantasy owners, but I feel this week should correct itself. As I write this, I’m still playing around with some lineups for the weekend’s games, but as of now, I look to be making my Flex spot a Tight End.

I like Martellus Bennett against the Patriots despite the fact the last time these teams played (without Tom Brady) Gronk and Bennett had a combine 4 targets and that a Tight End hasn’t scored against the Texans since week 11 (Hunter Henry). Bennett has a touchdown in each of his last two games, and I feel he should perform well despite the poor Draftkings opponent ranking.

Sleeper pick: I like Austin Hooper from the Falcons. He’s low on the Seahawks defensive priority list; I think he scores and hits his modest 3X goal of 8.7 points.

 

Good Luck this week

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About the author

Mike Rigz

Mike is the founding member at Gridiron Experts with over 1000+ articles credited to his name. With over 20 years of fantasy experience, Mike has a very unique style when picking sleepers and gems. He has always had a outside the box look on the NFL and rarely gets sucked into the hype over players or buzzing offenses. Mike looks at the game as a whole and doesn't focus solely on individual stats. Football is not Baseball, and you need to factor in more when researching players to draft. Mike has two kids and lives on the West Coast. He's happily married to a beautiful woman who also loves sports. Sundays are spent with friends and family watching games from opening kickoff to well into the evenings.

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