Doug Martin: Candidate for a Sophomore Slump?

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Published: August 24, 2013

Muscle Hamster Jinx?

Doug Martin FantasyEvery year there seems to be a lot of discussion about who in the NFL will have a second year shortcoming. Now, a lot of people don’t believe in this “jinx,” but there seems to be at least one second year player that goes through this and there is reason to believe that Doug Martin is a prime candidate for a sophomore slump. Hold on… before you start grabbing your pitchforks and torches to come find me, give me your eyes for a couple of minutes. Last year, Doug Martin exploded into the NFL and left fellow running back Legarrette Blount to mostly warm the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ bench, so why on earth would anyone think he might be a risk in 2013?

I wanted to look at running backs from a reliability standpoint and see how many games each running back would put up at least 100 yards or a touchdown. I picked 100 yards and a touchdown because I expect my backs and receivers to put up at least ten points a week. Yes, I prefer more, but I can deal with ten points. This is where it gets interesting. From a rushing standpoint only, Doug Martin only put up 100 yards or a touchdown in eight games which is half of the games or 50 percent. From my calculations, if we rated by this stat alone, Martin would be tied for ninth. I know what you are thinking, Martin catches out of the backfield. I also calculated when a back has 1oo total yards or a receiving/rushing touchdown. Martin scored better in this category, but was still behind guys like Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, C.J. Spiller and LeSean McCoy. I want to show you Martin’s best fantasy game and worst fantasy game just to give you another point of view.

Doug Martin as a Fantasy Legend

Doug Martin 2012 Game Log

WK Opp Att Yds TD Rec Tgt Yds TD
1 CAR 24 95 0 4 4 23 0
2 @ NYG 20 66 1 0 3 0 0
3 @ DAL 19 53 0 2 3 21 0
4 WAS 8 33 0 2 5 9 0
Bye
6 KAN 13 76 0 2 4 55 0
7 NOR 16 85 1 3 3 37 0
8 @ MIN 29 135 1 3 6 79 1
9 @ OAK 25 251 4 4 5 21 0
10 SDG 19 68 0 3 3 51 0
11 @ CAR 24 138 0 4 5 23 0
12 ATL 21 50 2 2 2 13 0
13 @ DEN 18 56 0 3 4 42 0
14 PHI 28 128 1 3 5 4 0
15 @ NOR 9 16 0 3 5 19 0
16 STL 18 62 0 7 8 57 0
17 @ ATL 28 142 1 4 5 18 0
Season Total: 319 1454 11 49 70 472 1

Week 9 – 251 rushing yards on 25 attempts, 4 rushing touchdowns, 21 receiving yards on 4 catches for a monster total of 55.2 fantasy points in a PPR format.

Doug Martin as a Fantasy Bum

Week 15 – 16 rushing yards on 9 attempts, 0 rushing touchdowns, 19 receiving yards on 3 catches for a very poor total of 6.5 fantasy points in a PPR format.

I can’t tell you that I have looked at every single player’s best and worst fantasy week, but I have to believe that if all NFL players where to be ranked on this stat alone, Martin and his 48.7 point differential would rank near the very top.

Clearly, we at Gridiron Experts are still confident in Doug Martin, especially with his entire offensive line coming back healthy. We currently have him ranked second, only behind Adrian Peterson. On a personal note, I have Doug Martin in one of my keeper leagues as a fourth round pick. Along with Martin I had, Arian Foster (first), A.J. Green (second), and Tony Gonzalez (eighth). In this particular league we get to keep one player and I will be selecting Martin. This article was not to bash Martin, but to simply show you that he is a roller coaster of a player who puts up the overall numbers. If you select Martin as your first round running back, make sure you have a consistent team to back him up when he has that six and a half point fantasy week.

Photo: Zimbo

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