Senior Bowl Stock Report

These days, there really is no extended break or off-season for fanatic football fans. The finale of the college football season is the annual Senior Bowl game played in Mobile, Alabama. That game pits graduating student-athletes from the north and south and gives them one final game before their potential professional careers begin.

The Senior Bowl also gives the participating players a chance to make an impression and get themselves noticed before February’s NFL Scouting Combine. Every year somebody creates a stir by having a big performance, either in the game itself or in the practice week held before the game.

This year was no exception. Several big names managed to make an impression on the hundreds of professional football scouts and personnel-men in attendance. Let’s take a look at some of the names that may have helped or hurt their potential 2012 NFL draft value.

Joe Adams (WR/KR) Arkansas- Improved his stock tremendously with at Senior Bowl M.V.P. performance for the South. Caught eight passes for 133 yards in the game. Looks to be a very good slot-receiver candidate who will offer mis-match potential for linebackers or safties. Is also a tremendous kick returner, further increasing his value.

Chris Rainey (RB/WR) Florida- Draws favorable comparisons to fellow former Florida rb/wr hybrid Percy Harvin. Though smaller than Harvin, Rainey might be quicker and absolutely schooled elite cornerback prospect Janoris Jenkins in the Senior Bowl practices. Has major character concerns that will raise a red flag for some teams.

Kellen Moore (QB) Boise State- Moore was really hurt when he was officially measured in at under six feet tall. There are currently no NFL starters of that size. Further dropping his value was his struggles with accuracy, footwork and timing. Moore is a winner and should still be a late round pick, but he might have to explore changing positions.

Vinny Curry (DE/LB) Marshall- Improved his stock tremendously with a two sack, one pass deflected performance. At 6-3 265 lbs. has the ability to play either as a defensive end or five-technique. A strong showing at the Scouting Combine could move him up into the bottom of round one, where he could be targeted by teams utilizing the 3-4.

Jeff Fuller (WR) Texas A&M- Plagued by dropped passes all week. Minimal impact in the Senior Bowl game, catching three balls for 16 yards. Also looked to run sloppy routes. Still has impressive size, but now looks only to be a late round selection.

  Brandon Boykin (CB) Georgia- Had an excellent week of practice. Handled all receivers in practice fairly well. A bit on the small side (5’9″ 189 lbs.). Added bonus is that he could make an excellent kick and punt return man. A strong Combine showing could move him up into round two. UPDATE: Apparently Boykin suffered a broken leg in the Senior Bowl, but the injury isn’t considered serious and reports are that he should be healed and ready to participate in the NFL Scouting Combine.

Chris Polk (RB) Washington- Perhaps the most maligned player at the Senior Bowl. ESPN’s Todd McShay said he hurt his stock more than any other player. Yikes. Allegedly looked out of shape and slow. Started off the Senior Bowl with a couple of impressive runs, then disappeared. Value has fallen so much that it might not be a surprise to see him selected until  the third round. Still, he has time to recover and improve his standing at the Combine.

Janoris Jenkins (CB) North Alabama- Solidified his status as a first round pick. Had an excellent week of practice and should be the third cornerback selected in the 2012 NFL draft. Was dismissed from Florida, so there will also be some character concerns for Jenkins.

Russell Wilson (QB) Wisconsin- Like Kellen Moore, Wilson was hurt by the tape measure. He measured in at a paltry 5-10 1/2 203lbs. That would make him the shortest signal-caller in the entire NFL. Also struggled with consistency and accuracy throughout the Senior Bowl practice week. He’ll likely be a very late pick or even an undrafted free agent.

Doug Martin (RB) Boise State- Looked like the best running back at the Senior Bowl. Strong lower body with excellent speed, Martin has drawn comparisons to Ray Rice. Should be a top-five running back selection at the draft. Like Rice, could be selected in the second round.

Alfonzo Dennard (CB) Nebraska- Had a very poor showing. Looked slow and struggled in coverage. Also looked to have poor footwork and could be over-powered by bigger NFL receivers. Ended up missing the Senior Bowl game itself with a hip flexor injury. Went from consideration to be the third cornerback selected to maybe falling as low as the third round.

Mike Adams (OT) Ohio State- Also solidified his first round billing with an excellent week of practice. Shut down elite pass-rushers like Courtney Upshaw and Quinton Coples. Could be in consideration to go in the top twenty of the first round at the draft.

Other players with stock on the rise: Quinton Coples (DE) North Carolina, Juron Criner (WR) Arizona, Dwight Jones (WR) North Carolina, Bobby Wagner (LB) Utah State, Georgia Iloka (S) Boise State, Marvin Jones (WR) California, Isaiah Pead (RB) Cincinnati, Brandon Weeden (QB) Oklahoma State

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10 Amazing NFL Draft Steals, Starting in the Playoffs

In a perfect world every team’s top NFL Draft picks would get ten out out ten grades and be leaders in the playoffs for years to come. But everyone knows quality talent can slip through the cracks to the second or third day at the NFL draft. While sometimes a player is the product of the right system, late round gem’s do pass by teams in need, while the hype of first round talent is statistically never as great in hindsight. The best scouts do get their guy, some chalking it up to great scouting, others to luck, with costly busts not talked about around the local area.

The following is a look at players that are not only starters in this year’s NFL playoff run, but are difference makers for their respected teams.

10. QB T.J Yates- Texans
5th round selection (152nd overall) of the 2011 Draft

Yates did not exactly earn his way into a starting role, more like he earned the right to keep it from a default of options. Injuries to Quarterback’s Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart opened the door for the underrated play of 5th round draft pick T.J Yates from North Carolina.

Some may argue that Yates is this years “Rex Grossman” or “Trent Dilfer” of the playoffs, a manage the game-QB, yet I tend to disagree. Already added to the record books for the first QB to win a Texans Playoff game, T.J Yates is gaining the confidence from the team and fans with every passing down. He is looking better than expected and in my opinion has great prowess and determination, something that is needed to become a leader at the QB position.

Things will be interesting next year once Schuab becomes the starter again, with a lack of NFL talent at the QB position around the league, a phone call or two could be made in acquiring this new fan favorite Texan.

9. DE Justin Tuck- Giants
3rd round selection (74th overall) of the 2005 NFL Draft

The Giants have a nose for finding excellent pass rushers and Justin Tuck might have been one of their better late round picks. The 2005 draft class overall grade for defensive ends wasn’t projected to be anything special, still names like Marcus Spears, Luis Castillo and Shaun Cody did all get extra attention early on. The Giants were patient and stole Tuck in the 3rd round. For the last 7 years Tuck has been a wrecking havoc on QB’s as he has cracked the double digit sack total 3 times (10,12,12) and been a vocal leader amongst his team

8. RB Frank Gore- 49er’s
3rd round selection (65th overall) of the 2005 NFL Draft

I tried to find a player from each team in the 2011-12 playoffs, and sadly could only pull Frank Gore out of the bag for San Fran. The 49er’s are currently a team made up of 1st round talent and don’t seem to make the most out of the middle to late rounds. Still, Frank Gore is definitely a sleeper gem that 49er fans can be happy with, he is no doubt deserving of being on this list.

Frank Gore has been able to reach the 1000 yard mark in all but two of his 7 NFL seasons. This Sunday’s post-season game is a first for Frank Gore, along with many 49er’s as the team hasn’t made the playoffs since 02

7. DE Elvis Dumervil- Broncos
4th round selection (126th overall) of the 2006 NFL Draft

At 5 feet 11 inches tall many NFL scouts had their doubts about this 2006 4th round pick defensive end. Yet after an amazing 07-08 season with 12 sacks and a interception, Elvis Dumervil was thought as the one of leagues best steals of the ’06 draft. In 2009 defensive coordinator Mike Nolan moved Dumervil to outside linebacker in his 3-4 defensive scheme, but keeping him as a defensive end on 4-3 passing down situations. The result was Dumervil leading the league in sacks with 17.

6. TE Jimmy Graham- Saints
3rd round selection (95th overall) of the 2010 NFL Draft

Someone somewhere needs to make a movie about this guy, Jimmy Graham is a great NFL story. Not only is Graham a lethal redzone threat he looks to take over the fantasy world for years to come.

Check out a great read by very own Ahmed Helmy called: Jimmy Graham: Fantasy Man-Crush

5. RB James Starks- Packers
6th round selection (193rd overall) of the 2010 NFL Draft

Starks found himself the lead RB playoff starter for the Packers Super Bowl run last season. His solid performance and above average stat’s has lead him to a split RB starting roll for this 2011 season. Starks was a massive steal in the 6th round of the 2010 draft, a player that some believe was a lifesaver at many points throughout the Packers dominance over the past 2 years. Definitely a diamond in the rough find

4. DE Brett Keisel- Steelers
7th round selection (242nd overall) of the 2002 NFL Draft

The Steelers were eliminated from the playoffs in an upset Wildcard weekend, but that won’t stop me from adding one of the greatest all-time steals in NFL draft history. Brett Keisel was taken in the 7th round of the 2002 NFL draft and has made the Steelers what they are today. Keisel has been an anchor for the Steelers defensive line and compiled 200 tackles over the last 10 years

3. RB Ahmad Bradshaw- Giants
7th round selection (250th overall) of the 2007 NFL Draft

A Tiki Barber replacement that seems to get better with every year. Bradshaw has been practicing just once per week since returning from his foot injury in Week 13, yet his value to the team is unspeakable. Bradshaw and Jacobs work so much better when they are both healthy and active. One of the reasons why the Giants don’t want to let this RB go. As a pure value pick 250th overall Ahmad Bradshaw makes the NFL Draft Steal list for playoff teams in 2012.

2. WR Marques Colston- Saints
7th round selection (252nd overall) of the 2005 NFL Draft

How in the hell did 31 teams pass on this guy? Was their zero scouting done for Hofstra. Back in 2006, following the trade of wide receiver Donte Stallworth, Colston was inserted into the starting lineup for week 1 of the season. He becoame one of the few seventh round picks to ever to start week 1 for their team and has never looked back.

1. QB Tom Brady- Patriots
6th round selection (199th overall) of the 2000 NFL Draft

Of course it’s Tom Brady! who else could be added to a list of amazing NFL draft steals. The New England Patriots made the unusual decision to carry four quarterbacks on the roster back in 2000. Brady started the season as the fourth string quarterback, behind starter Drew Bledsoe and backups John Friesz and Michael Bishop; by the end of the season, Brady was number two on the depth chart behind Bledsoe. During his rookie season, he was 1-of-3 passing, for six yards.

Tom Brady holds numerous regular season and postseason records, including: most touchdown passes in a regular season (50); most consecutive regular-season home wins (31); highest winning percentage of any quarterback during his first 100 starts (76 wins); most completions in one Super Bowl (32); and the list goes on for days.

Brady is the fourth-fastest player to reach 200 career passing touchdowns (116 games) and he is the first quarterback in NFL history to have reached this mark with fewer than 100 career interceptions (88 interceptions)

Without a doubt Tom Brady was the greatest NFL Draft steal of all time.

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The NFL Coaching Hot Seat

Every NFL season concludes with a number of head coaches losing their jobs. “Black Monday” as it’s come to be known, has become both a feared annual tradition and a symbolism of a fresh start for a floundering franchise.

Three head coaches, Jack Del Rio, Todd Haley and Tony Sparano have already been relieved of their duties during the 2011 season and there will undoubtedly be more.

Helping assure that the number of soon-to-be ex-NFL head coaches will grow are the presence of highly coveted, experienced and successful former coaches like Bill Cowher, John Gruden and Jeff Fisher.  The potential to hire these reputable candidates could help a franchise owner pull the plug on their current coaching staff for the long-term stability that these “retired” leaders could bring to any club.

With three down and assuredly more to come, here is a look at so potential head coaches who should consider updating their resumés.

But it all fell apart quickly for Spagnuolo and the Rams. They didn’t get their first victory until week eight and St Louis will end the 2012 season combining the league’s 31st ranked offense and worst rush defense. 2011 has been a total flop and will almost certainly end with a complete overhaul of the coaching staff.

Rumors are already flying that former Raiders and Bucs head coach John Gruden is a leading candidate for the Rams’ gig. Adding to that speculation has been Jets offensive line coach Bill Callahan‘s refusal to sign an extension, perhaps in anticipation of re-uniting with Gruden as his offensive coordinator.

But it all went south quickly and it seems like the team has totally quit on their coach. Tampa has lost nine straight games and most have been in embarrassing, blowout fashion. Freeman seems to have significantly regressed and has been plagued by turnovers, but the biggest culprit for Tampa’s misery has been Morris’ defense, which has slipped to 30th in the league.

That’s not going to happen in 2011. The Chargers actually got off to a rare fast start before hitting a long losing stretch mid-season. There will be no second half revival and San Diego will miss the playoffs. Both Turner and GM A.J. Smith are expected to be relieved of their duties.

Unlike other potential coaching destinations, San Diego offers a roster loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and combines that with a pleasant climate. Rumors are already flying of Bill Cowher‘s interest in becoming the team’s next commander-n-chief.

Other Potential Coaching Casualties

Other names to consider:

There’s been a lot of fans wanting to get rid of the league’s longest-tenured coach, but Andy Reid will probably keep his job be leading the Eagles to a strong second-half finish…Playoff fervor has turned to panic in Houston as the Texans have lost two straight games to weaker opponents. Should the Texans get blown out at home in the wild-card round, Gary Kubiak could be replaced and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips could take over…. Buffalo’s Chan Gailey was the toast of the town in September, but now there are rumblings that the Bills could be looking to replace him after a mid-season swoon eliminated them from playoff contention. Don’t forget the three interim-head coaches, Mel Tucker in Jacksonville, Todd Bowles in Miami, and the only one who is expected to have a real chance at returning next season, Kansas City’s Romeo Crennel.

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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Lets take a break from fantasy football for a moment, just a brief moment. With every long shot bet available in Vegas or sportsbook, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what the bet makers thought about the rookie crop this year. Say what you want about gambling, but sometimes the best hints to fantasy actually lie in the sportsbetting world (sleeper tip).

Side note: It’s true, if you are ever torn on who to start in a tough week, take a look a the over/under for each game those players are in (Over under being the total number of points scored) If Vegas is predicting a low scoring game for you of your fantasy options, lean on the on the other guy. It’s scary how close lines are too the real thing.

Anyways, getting back the rookies. The following are the odds for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Now before all you Fantasy fans stick your nose up at this betting article, lets take a step a back and examine the odds. Surely even the most uptight fantasy football enthusiast would agree, that any stats that can provide a hint to picking fantasy gems are good stats. In this case, these are betting odds, which might be even better than stats. The numbers listed above are the odds that the players will win the 2011 offensive rookie of the year award as of this morning.

The history of the offensive rookie of the year award has changed quite a bit over the last decade.

30 of the last 43 rookie of the year awards dating back to 1967, have been running backs. But as you can see in 2004, the trend of handing this award to quarterbacks surely took over. Before Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, there was only one other QB to be given this award: Dennis Shaw in 1970.

If I had to make a early prediction, which is tipping my hat to a later article we have coming, I would have to go with RB Mark Ingram to win the 2011 Offensive Rookie Award . I know the odds tend to favor the QB position over the last 8 years, but I think he has an amazing opportunity in New Orleans.

That being said, I will also though in Jonathan Baldwin at 20 to 1. How could you not? with the fact that he is currently in line for a starting job and on a team that is lacking a second passing threat opposite Dwayne Bowe, he is not a bad dark horse for potential.

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Donovan McNabb to the Vikings

For the Minnesota Vikings, here we go again.  The Vikings and the Washington Redskins have put together a trade that would bring quarterback Donovan McNabb to the Vikings in exchange for a sixth round pick and a second conditional sixth round pick.  On the surface this is a good trade for both teams.  Everyone knew the Redskins were going to get rid of the longtime Eagle signal caller after one roller coaster ride of a season.  The fact that they got anything for McNabb was a win in D.C.  On the flip side, getting a veteran quarterback on a team that doesn’t have one for two late draft picks was a win for the Vikings as well.

This trade my no means shifts power in the NFC. Washington would be rebuilding with or without McNabb and few think the veteran quarterback will turn the Vikings back into a Super Bowl contender. What it might do for the Vikings is give this group of veterans one last shot at getting to the playoffs.  Even with McNabb coming off of his worst year in a decade, he still gives the Vikings a better chance to win this year.  Christian Ponder is the future in Minnesota, but he would have been eaten up in year one having to play the suddenly rock solid defenses in the NFC North.

Vikings fans have seen this before. Outside of a few years of Brad Johnson and later Daunte Culpepper, the Vikings have been a last stop for a number of quarterbacks.  Reports from a year ago had the Vikings flirting with McNabb already, so their interest this time around should have come to the surprise of no one.  Long term this move makes no sense, but the Vikings front office doesn’t think the window has closed for this group of players.

As far as fantasy football goes, this should improve every Viking skill position player for 2011.  Assuming McNabb is not the train wreck of last season, Visanthe Shiancoe, Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson all will benefit from a veteran presence in the lineup.  Mike Shanahan was not going to have the veteran on the roster once the lockout was over so this shouldn’t effect anyone’s draft board when it comes to the Redskins.  Come to think of it there are not many players that will be high on anyone’s draft board anyway.

The bottom line is the Vikings continue to spin their wheels at the quarterback position for at least one more year – good news for owners of the skill position players, but does little for the long-term success of the franchise.  Long and short term this was a good move for Washington.  Getting anything for someone everyone knew you were going to get rid of one way or another was a great move.

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Rookie Round Up: Julio Jones & the Atlanta Falcons

In poker, there always comes a time when you are forced to make a game defining decision. Do you go all in and try to pocket a massive pot? Or, do you fold and wait for a better opportunity while conserving your resources?

Now, I am not in a position to offer poker advice. Just ask my wallet. And, as a result ask my girlfriend why we haven’t been out to dinner in some time.

But in football, a choice such as this presents itself quite often. Depending on the teams and the assets involved, both choices could prove beneficial.

During April’s draft, the Atlanta Falcons were faced with such an option.

Publicly interested in acquiring a talented complimentary receiver, the Falcons saw wide out A.J. Green go off the board at four. The Cleveland Browns then sat at No. 6 with a need for Alabama wide receiver, Julio Jones. The time had come to make a move or stand pat.

Julio Jones is nearly 6’3” and 220 lbs of athletic ability. His physical measurements are quite above average.

As a receiver, he possesses considerable potential. Jones is capable of creating consistent separation. Unlike many stand out college receivers, Jones is a very good route runner who uses his impressive physical frame to box out and shield defenders. Additionally, he has shown good instincts for finding pockets of space against zone coverage.

Jones is very tough and competitive as well, qualities rarely seen in today’s diva wide outs. This kid loves to throw hard-hitting blocks for running backs and can be seen hustling to throw down field blocks for teammates.

I absolutely love to see that from WRs. His physicality in blocking and willingness to snag passes across the middle remind me of personal favorite, Hines Ward. You can’t gauge heart. But, Jones certainly has a lot of it.

Side Note: Jones ran a 4.34 40-yard dash on a broken foot. I can barely get up to get the remote after I stub my toe.

However, Jones does have some question marks. His durability is concerning to say the least. Nothing is more frustrating than an injury prone player who possesses immense potential (Hear that? It’s the sound of a thousand Portland fans angrily cursing Greg Oden’s knees).

Jones has also been plagued by drops of “catchable” balls in his college career. Some have been due to a break in focus. Other times he attempts to catch more with his body than his hands. He will have to break these habits if he expects to be a successful first year starter.

Atlanta believed they could win a big hand with a pair of kings.

Ultimately, the Atlanta Falcons traded five valuable draft picks to move into Cleveland’s No. 6 spot and select Julio Jones. Those picks included: the 27th (1st round), 59th (2nd round), and the 124th (3rd round) in this years draft as well as their first and fourth round picks in the 2012 draft.

That is an extremely high price to pay for any player. Considering that Jones wasn’t even projected as the best player at his position and that receivers notoriously struggle with the transition to the NFL, this move was a mistake.

I would understand this decision if Atlanta was one piece away from a Super Bowl. But, Matt Ryan hasn’t even won a single playoff game and the Falcons were bounced in their first playoff appearance last year as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Atlanta gave away a plethora of draft picks that could have been used to address current team issues. The majority of their starting offensive line will be unrestricted free agents once the lockout ends. John Abraham will be another year older and his replacement has yet to be found. Michael Turner has slowed considerably due to excessive carries these past few seasons. No one came within 15 tackles of their leader, Curtis Lofton (93 tackles), last season.

It’s easy to see that Matt Ryan is going to be the next elite quarterback. His ability is off the charts and Atlanta’s offensive decision makers plan to really let him loose this season. But giving Ryan a shiny new target at the expense of depth, well roundedness and future impact players is not worth the risk.

If you’re Cleveland, this trade is a no-brainer. The deal greatly speeds up the rebuilding process and gives Mike Holmgren a lot of options and flexibility. It’s like when Peter Parker was bitten by that super spider, fate conveniently dropped a whole mess of awesome in their laps (Yes, I realize that Spider-Man isn’t real. But a boy can dream, can’t he?)

In this case, Atlanta went all in on the wrong hand.

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Jonathan Baldwin Fantasy Football Preview

The only two ways a rookie can make a fantasy impact right out of the gate is if they are a physical freak – a.k.a. Randy Moss, or if there is a need at his position on the team who drafts him.  After a break out year in 2010, the Kansas City Chiefs were picking low in the first round, but had a definite need they tried to fill.  One of the players who might be under the radar who has a chance to make a fantasy impact in his first season is the Chiefs first round pick Jonathan Baldwin.

Baldwin, who was picked 26^th overall, is a tall, lanky wide receiver out of Pittsburgh.  At 6’5” and 225 pounds, Baldwin was picked up by Chiefs’ general manager Scott Pioli after trading down for an additional choice from their original pick of 21.  Behind Dwayne Bowe, the team didn’t have a viable second receiver option last year.  Re-tread Chris Chambers was the second most effective wide receiver on the team with a grand total of 22 catches – good for fourth on the club.  Obviously Baldwin was the definition of a ‘need’ pick.

Jonathan Baldwin could be the perfect complement to the more physical Bowe.  The Chiefs look to be building a solid young team to contend in the AFC West for years to come.  They have explosive young players all over the field and if they continue to grow, they could be scary for defenses for the next five years.  The question for fantasy owners however is this:  From day one is Jonathan Baldwin ready or not?

Leave aside the fact that just as many – and maybe more – wide receivers tend to struggle in year one than have success.  The Chiefs had the top running attack in the league last season.  As a percentage they threw the ball the least.  While a big reason for that was because of the limited options quarterback Matt Cassel had at his disposal, it was also because of the mentality of the offense.  They should still have a dynamic one, two, possibly even three punch in the backfield with Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones and third down and special teams star Dexter McCluster.  Even if Jones doesn’t come back because of age or the team continuing with its youth movement, McCluster is going to get more touches in both the running and passing games in his second year.  He proved way too explosive for the team to keep him under wraps in year two.

With the stats Cassel put up in his short stint in New England, he actually did back it up with a solid season in his first year starting for the Chiefs.  That being said they still only ranked 30^th in the league in passing yards.  It would be a perfect situation for a receiver to come into, except for a couple of big factors. In addition to the team’s run first mentality, Cassel already has built up a solid football relationship with Bowe and more importantly tight end Tony Moeaki and Jamaal Charles.  With such a young and conservative offense it will be difficult for Baldwin to chip away looks from the established guys – until they put in some significant time together.  Add to it the abbreviated off-season, Cassel is going to go back to the security of the guys he knows.

With his physical build, Baldwin will be expected to stretch the field with his length.  I don’t see the team changing their offensive philosophy because of what the rookie will bring to the offense in year one.   Baldwin might not have many opportunities to make plays.

When he does get his chances he could be explosive.  He will see a lot of single coverage early.  With the Chiefs’ style of offense, the deep ball might not be called enough to give Baldwin enough chance to make much of a statistical impact.  He doesn’t have the physical skills to make an immediate impact regardless of the offense, like Julio Jones or A.J. Green.

In a franchise league Jonathan Baldwin would be a sneaky pick.  The Chiefs offense will only get better as they get more experience and a couple of years down the road Baldwin might be a solid 70 catch, eight touchdown a year guy.  This season however, all signs point to more of a 40 catch three touchdown season – at least until his teammates get comfortable with him and their emerging offense.

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NFL Draft Fantasy Scouting: Talented Prospects League Wide

This is a fun topic to think about if you are a fan of the NFL Draft or like fantasy scouting

To say “talent breeds talent” is an understatement in college football. A team with a few great players will oftentimes surround those players with even more good players. Teams who have talent and get national recognition often catch the eye of young high school phenoms. With little effort, teams are able to lure these high school athletes and sign them for the future.

USC, Florida, Alabama, the very best teams get the best players over and over again. So when it comes to the NFL draft, you aren’t surprised to see the same teams having players grace the cover of NFL Draft mags. It’s the reason why we see “powerhouses” and also the reason why some teams can only get wins against FCS teams. Hoarding talent, is a trademark skill in the NCAA.

BCS bowls and even conference championships of the BCS conferences are usually good for at least one if not a few first round NFL talents. Clearly the trend of the best schools in the nation get the best recruits out of high school. This was the way things were done if a kid wanted to try and get to the NFL.

However… the game has been changing recently and this year is evidence of that.

If you recall, the NCAA cut back the amount of scholarships that each D1 football team could have a few years ago. In other words each NCAA Football team couldn’t grab up as much talent, and so now we are starting to see more and more “quality” players become spread out amongst the league.

It used to be a question of “How many will be drafted in the first round” from teams like Miami, LSU, USC, Oklahoma and Ohio State (amongst others), now it becomes a question of “…First Round talent from where?”

The top players are not only finding themselves on “lesser quality” teams, but they are starting to do so in droves! This means more competition, but it also means you can see teams with a bad records still landing a stud and having him get drafted high.

In recent years, we have seen 1st round picks from teams like Fresno State, Boise State, Northern Illinois, Troy, Tennessee State, Delaware and East Carolina. When was the last time any of those teams played a BCS game (excluding Boise of course)?

For evidence of how this trend has been shifting and how not just single players but multiple first round talents are going to schools which aren’t “perennial powers” …take a look to the 2011 draft:

Teams With Multiple First Round Selections (and the number of first round selections in parenthesis)

• Alabama (4)
  
• Auburn (2)
  
• Missouri (2)
  
• Wisconsin (2)
  
• Colorado (2)
  
• Baylor (2)

Now obviously Auburn was the National Champion. Alabama started the year at #1. Wisconsin played in the Rose bowl. And Missouri was a respectable 10-3 overall. However, how can Colorado who only had 5 wins (and only 3 against BCS conference teams) and Baylor with only 7 wins(only 4 against BCS conference caliber teams) end up with multiple first round picks?

Those players ended up being Aldon Smith (San Francisco) and Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville) from Missouri as well as PhilTaylor (Cleveland) and Danny Watkins (Philadelphia) from Baylor.

This is going to be very interesting for future prospects, Can we really judge a player as an amazing athlete if he’s not helping his team to win? Or if the surrounding talent isn’t as good? Players look better if they are playing against a lesser skill level.

The theory used to be players who were drafted in the first round were almost always on the big name powerhouses, but we are seeing a fundamental change in the draft process.

So if you like fantasy scouting, or just like keeping your eyes and ears open for the 2012 draft prospects, don’t just focus on the Top NCAA teams for producing first round NFL talent, top prospects are coming from all round.

-Chris Johnson played at East Carolina, enough said

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Terrelle Pryor Coming To The NFL

While Terrelle Pryor to the supplemental draft is the big story, he isn’t exactly an easy player to peg. There are a lot of ups and downs about him, and depending on how you sift through the information, you could think he is the next Vince Young, Tim Tebow, or Cam Newton … or you could also get the idea that with his immaturity issues and inability to handle leadership or even his quarterback skills, he could also be the next Pacman Jones, Jamarcus Russell, and Ryan Leaf combined.

While I obviously have no idea what teams think of this guy for sure … it makes sense to take a look at him overall.

Pros:

• Size – at 6’6 and 235 pounds, he is a prototype athlete

• Winner in High School – Led football (and basketball) team in high school to state championships. Became first PA football player to run for AND throw for 4,000 yards. Two-Time PA player of the year and MVP of the US Army All-American Bowl. Top football recruit in 2008 (or top few at least).

• Winner in College – 8-1 at OSU as a true freshmen starting, Big Ten freshmen of the year, Rose Bowl Champion, Sugar Bowl Champion, Big Ten MVP runner-up, ALL Big Ten Honorable Mention (three times),  and leaves OSU with a 33-4 record as a starter with 3 BCS Bowl appearances and two wins.

• Athleticism – One of the fastest players at OSU (has recorded the fastest 40 amongst teammates at least once). Could transition into a wide receiver (or another position) ala Randle El, Cribbs, Boldin, Webb, Jones …

Cons:

• Trouble – Do you really want to spend a high pick on a guy who was involved in selling memorabilia and autographs? (Neither has been fully proven, only claimed). Also, he has driven with a suspended license (allegedly) and could have received improper benefits from car and auto financing (also not proven true, only claimed).

• Project – Even though he is athletic, his true ability is that he can extend the play and not that he can make all of the throws. Even after the win against Arkansas he wanted to come back because he didn’t think he was ready. This could be a 4-5 year project, and some teams don’t have that sort of time in the “win now” NFL.

So … what now?

Best Case:

From what I can gather, Pryor would be an excellent quarterback to come into a team that has NO question marks in that position. Unfortunately the Patriots just drafted Ryan Mallet to develop, or else Pryor would have been a perfect fit. Still, if he can find a team that has a quarterback now and learn while being under a solid organization to groom him and keep him grounded, he could turn into a long term starter. Teams like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Dallas could all scoop him up and prep him to be the guy in 2 to 3 years ala Aaron Rodgers. If they don’t need him then, he can be the same type of trade bait that Kevin Kolb is currently.

What Will Happen:

In the NFL (not for long) too many coaches need to win now. Pryor will get scooped up by a coach who NEEDS time. The reason? If he (the coach) can tell his owner that they have the right guy in place with Pryor, then it will buy them another year or two to allow Pryor to grow. Long term lunacy because he won’t get the chance to develop as he should, but it’s short term job security for any coach. The teams that COULD take him and throw him into the fire by January would probably be a short list, and teams like Buffalo, Seattle, Arizona, and *possibly* San Francisco.

Sleeper teams to pick him up where he could pay off immediately?

Jets: With Mark Sanchez at the helm, there’s no way he is a quarterback pushing for playing time in New York. BUT, he could run a version of the wildcat if Brad Smith leaves. He could also fit in well in New York if they can keep the likes of Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes calmed down.

Saints: Coach Sean Payton knows gimmicks and has a deep bag of tricks to keep the other teams guessing. With Drew Brees manning the helm, Pryor could be the heir apparent in 3 to 5 years. BUT, he could also end up gaining significant experience while being a “slash” player just like how Reggie Bush has been used as an all-purpose threat.

Eagles: The team that traded away McNabb last year and could very well trade away Kolb by the time the season hits will need another quarterback. Plus, who better for a young and athletic quarterback with a questionable past and maturity issues to learn from in the NFL than Mike Vick at this point? Pryor could learn to run the same offense and the team wouldn’t miss a beat. Add in the talented weapons in Philadephia, and Pryor could have an easy time fitting in here.

Conclusion:

Pryor is the perfect definition of a BOOM or BUST candidate. In a few years we will all be able to look back and see the writing on the wall. He DOES have tremendous talent and upside. But, he ALSO has a whole lotta question marks and concerns as well.

Who takes him? What round is he drafted? What does it mean for fantasy football?

Stay tuned … Terrelle Pryor to the supplemental draft is right around the corner.

Terrelle Pryor to the Supplemental Draft Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born