Fantasy Football RB Rankings Week 16

Congratulations to those of you who are about to compete in your fantasy Super Bowls. Months of research and dedication have paid dividends, and you are now very close to a championship. This column will help with your RB management in this critical week.

Below, you will find comprehensive rankings of the top 40 running backs for this week’s games. Plus, some commentary to assist you with your lineup dilemmas. If you own any of the elite backs that are unquestioned must starts, this column will not reiterate what you already know, with glowing accounts about their explosive ability. You really don’t need reassurance about starting Ray Rice against Cleveland, but you probably have a question about starting Steven Jackson against the Steelers. However, all matchups are important – good or bad – and will not be totally ignored either. But there will be more detail provided about the backs that are most likely to create indecisiveness. And hopefully, you will finish reading this having secured the solutions that you need.

As you consider your matchups, and monitor injuries, weather conditions and other factors, remember that the Texans and Colts are involved in the Thursday night game. Owners should make sure that Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and Donald Brown are safely inserted into their lineups before the early kickoff.

And, there is a full slate of games… 13 to be exact… that will take place on Saturday this week. There are no Sunday afternoon contests. There will be a Sunday night contest between Chicago and Green Bay, and Atlanta will visit New Orleans on Monday Night. Other than those two games, and the Houston vs. Indy matchup that was previously mentioned, all other teams will line up on Saturday.

With that, let’s progress to a detailed look at which running backs you should depend upon, to help maximize the chances of winning your Fantasy Super Bowl Matchup in week 16.

DEFINITE STARTS

Rashard Mendenhall
Fantasy owners will certainly embrace the transition from watching Mendenhall struggle to gain 64 yards against San Francisco’s top ranked rush defense on Monday, to now having the opportunity to line up against the league’s worst. The Rams have been the most hospitable unit to opposing rushers throughout the regular season, allowing 153.4 YPG, and an equally unsightly 4.8 YPC. With Ben Roethlisberger now out, the Steelers will place an even heavier emphasis on their running game. Mendenhall should improve considerably upon his 59.5 YPG, could generate his first 100-yard rushing performance since week 6, and will have an excellent opportunity to score his eighth TD. It’s a gift wrapped matchup, that you absolutely must take advantage of.

Marshawn Lynch
He is being included because the difficult matchup with San Francisco has some owners questioning his status. Normally, this column has advised against starting your RBs against the league’s most forbidding rush defense throughout the season, because it was highly possible that you would be able to find better alternatives for that particular week. But even though the 49ers’ body of work remains cause for concern, are you really comfortable sitting a back who has scored in 10 consecutive games? And has averaged 87 YPG in the process? It is very unlikely that you possess two superior options to Beast Mode currently on your roster. Lynch has helped bring you this far, and should be in your starting lineup.

C.J. Spiller
His week 15 matchup against Miami’s third ranked rush defense certainly appeared daunting. The Dolphins had only permitted 60.6 YPG in their last three contests, and had allowed just five TDs on the year. But Spiller rewarded fantasy owners who displayed the courage to start him, by bolting for 91 yards and a TD despite just 12 attempts. He also collected 76 yards and a second TD, on a team high nine receptions. He has now generated 275 yards on the ground since week 12, (69 YPG), while unmistakably becoming an integral part of Buffalo’s injury depleted offense. Spiller should deliver another productive outing against Denver’s 20th ranked rush defense.

Felix Jones
Those of you who utilized Jones in his first start since week 6, were rewarded with 108 yards against the Buccaneers’ 28th ranked rush defense. He has now accumulated 214 on 38 attempts (5.6 YPG) since being elevated back into the role of Dallas’ primary back. It will be more difficult to shred the 17th ranked Eagles’ rush defense with the same totality that he did against Tampa Bay’s woeful defensive unit. However, if Jones hamstring does not prohibit him from performing, he should once again receive an extensive workload, while backup Sammy Morris garners 10-12 carries as his backup. Just monitor his status leading up to Saturday.

DeAngelo Williams
Throughout much of the season teammate Jonathan Stewart appeared to be a more dynamic runner than Williams and this column repeatedly stated that. But in recent weeks, the situation has gradually reversed. After accumulating 61 on 15 attempts in Houston, Williams has now averaged 64 YPG since week 11. And his 6.2 YPC during that stretch exceeds his season average of 5.1. Concerns do remain. He averages just 10.1 APG, does not normally receive goal line carries, and is not a factor in Carolina’s passing attack. Those issues might n combine to place a cap on what Williams can accomplish for you if you start him. But, he has been running more proficiently in recent weeks, and has scored four TDs in the past three games. That is sufficient reason to employ him against Tampa Bay’s 30th ranked rush defense.

START THEM, BUT…

Chris Johnson
Fantasy owners were hopeful that Johnson would deliver his fourth 130+ yard rushing performance in the past six weeks against the vulnerable Indianapolis rush defense. Instead, they were forced to endure an underwhelming 55 yards, which was the third time that he has failed to reach 60 yards in the past five games. He did supplement his overall production, by collecting a season high 54 receiving yards, which salvaged the day for many of those otherwise disappointed owners. How many yards will he deliver against the Jaguars’ 14th ranked rush defense? It would be very difficult for anyone to predict, based upon his roller coaster season. But the belief here, is that he will provide around 70 yards, but fail to score.

Frank Gore
After exceeding 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games, and accumulating 634 in the process (127 YPG),
He has managed just 337 yards (56 YPG) in six games since. And, the 20 APG that he averaged during his extremely productive stretch, has dwindled to 16.5 since week 10. While Seattle’s 11th ranked rush defense is respectable, the matchup is not the biggest concern for fantasy owners. His workload, and productivity have clearly declined, and although it is perfectly logical for you to start him in view of his ability and earlier accomplishments, you should not expect a monster game statistically.

Steven Jackson
The same concern that has existed for the past five weeks remains for this week’s critical matchup. Due to injuries, and multiple shortcomings within the dreadful St. Louis offense, opposing defenses have the ability to focus sizable resources toward containing Jackson. He has scored just once since week 8, and has averaged only 51.8 YPG since week 10. Now, he must contend with a sixth ranked Pittsburgh rush defense, that will be primed to stop him. Again, Jackson is warrior, and deserves a better fate at this point in his career. There is simply too much for him to overcome, and he cannot deliver exceptional numbers for you.

Ahmad Bradshaw
He began the year by accumulating 440 yards in his first seven games (62.8 YPG), then missed four weeks with his foot injury. Since his return, Bradshaw has hardly been impressive, averaging just 36 YPG. And that would be much lower, had it not been for his 58-yard performance against Washington, which was bolstered by 33 yards on the Giants’ final drive. He will continue to share touches with Brandon Jacobs, which includes the coveted opportunities near the goal line. While he did score in week 15 for the first time since week 6, it occurred with just: 33 remaining in the game. He is worth starting, but only as a low end No. 2 against the Jets’ 16th ranked rush defense.

Donald Brown
For some unfathomable reason, several prominent sites are still not giving Brown credit for his success, in part because he has not captured a full time role. But he has easily surpassed Joseph Addai in terms of workload, and is immensely more productive. Brown has amassed 433 yards and 72.2 YPG in his last six games, compared to Addai’s 98 yards (24.5 YPG), in four games since returning from his hamstring injury. While the fifth ranked Texans’ rush defense will supply a daunting challenge, Brown does provide some big play potential, and will be allotted considerable opportunities. Fantasy owners can utilize him as a high end No. 3 or flex.

BEST WAIVER WIRE ADDITIONS

Kahlil Bell
Are you willing to make an addition to your roster in week 16? If so, Bell is your guy among RBs. He led the Bears in both rushing yards (65) and in receiving yards (43) against Seattle. Plus, he scored on a 25-yard reception, and elevated beyond Marion Barber into the feature back role. Barber carried just 11 times for 33 yards, and perfectly performed the role of spectator in the fourth quarter. Bell will provide versatility for fantasy owners, and should accumulate points as rusher and receiver against Green Bay. Particularly if the Bears ultimately trail by a considerable margin. If you are not enthralled with your current options, he is worth a shot.

Lance Ball
When Willis McGahee departed Denver’s week15 matchup with the Patriots, Ball amassed 105 total yards on just 13 touches. 64 of those yards were generated on the ground, and included a 32-yard scoring burst. Despite a statement from John Fox that McGahee’s absence was not due to injury, the thought here is that it actually was. Which would make it very possible that Ball will split touches with McGahee again in Buffalo. The Bills have been gashed for 591 yards in the past three weeks, which is a whopping 197 YPG. As a result, they have plummeted to 29th in rush defense, and could easily be shredded again. If you are searching for a week 16 spark, Ball is a wise roster addition.

Chris Ivory
He was included in this section last week, but since he is still available in many leagues, he will be discussed again. After gaining 74 yards on 18 attempts against the Vikings, he has now accumulated 127 yards on 31 attempts (4.1 YPC) in two games after reemerging in the Saints’ lineup due to Mark Ingram’s turf toe. His allotment of carries, and his effectiveness, are both consistent. And he can supply points to fantasy owners who are searching for an emergency boost at the flex position. He will line up against an Atlanta rush defense, that has allowed just 96.6 YPG during the season, but has been far more hospitable in the recent weeks.

Fantasy Football:

QB Fantasy Player Rankings: Week 15

Way to go fantasy owners who have made it into the second round of the playoffs. Your another game closer of basking in the glory of a fantasy league championship, but now the real challenge begins of selecting an elite quarterback to lead the charge in your playoff quest, especially if your in desperate need of a QB this weekend. With the amount of injuries to many starters, it’s a difficult time to be scrambling to get a last minute starter, but have no fear for there are plenty of reliable guys suited for the job.

For those of you who own any of the top fantasy quarterbacks already know how important they are and will need not think twice about starting them, but for those owners who are scrambling at the last minute to pick a gunslinger should consider the quarterbacks list below and carefully consider the options they have. Obviously, they want someone who will deliver a big win, rack up a significant amount of fantasy points, and get you to the championship.

Fantasy owners who started Matt Ryan this week got a real treat as he shined in a game where the Falcons were still fighting to hold onto a wild card spot. Ryan went 19 for 26 for 224 yards and three touchdowns, playing one of his best games of the year. Good choice in starting Ryan, if you did. On the other hand, lets hope fantasy owners avoided the opposing quarterback Blaine Gabbert. If you were smart, you’d have passed on Gabbert a while ago.

Well, let’s take a look at who you should be dependent on this weekend at quarterback to give you a better chance of taking home a W.

Definite Starts

Michael Vick- Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Vick admitted that he wasn’t 100% while playing against Miami the previous week, and didn’t really impress or stand out in his performance, but this week could be a different story. The Eagles and Vick take on the high flying Jets and their aggressive, but sometimes unstable defense and with Vick slowly getting back to form, look for him to have a big passing and running day considering his numbers were pretty low last week.

Andy Dalton- Cincinnati Bengals
This kid has been a great addition to the Bengals, rejuvenating a team that desperately needed a change at quarterback. Andy Dalton has passed for 18 touchdowns and 2,833 yards this season, making him one of the more dynamic rookies to start this year. If it weren’t for Cam Newton, Dalton would have a pretty good shot of wrapping up the rookie of the year award, but nonetheless Dalton has been spectacular and this week looks to keep the Bengals playoff hopes alive by putting up some big numbers on a beat up Rams squad.

Tim Tebow- Denver Broncos
From week to week, Tim Tebow continues to impress and prove the critics wrong. He’s 7-1 as the starter for Denver and looks to improve their winning streak this weekend against the tough New England Patriots. Tebow is always tricky when deciding to start him or not, since most of the time he only shows up for the final quarter, but it might be a good idea to throw him into the starting lineup this week considering he’s taking on the worst ranked pass defense in the league. Tebow is also a running threat, not as of lately since he’s learning to pass more, but still has it in him to take off for the pylons once and a while. The match-up between the Broncos and Patriots will be a great game and look for Tebow, whether or not the Patriots defense bends or breaks, to have a fantastic game.

Start Them But…

Matt Hasselbeck-Tennessee Titans
Matt Hasselbeck was listed as questionable going into the game against the Colts this weekend, but will start, barring any setback. Hasselbeck fully practiced on Friday despite his injured left calf, but is determined to get out onto the field and take the reins to lead the Titans to a wild card spot. Hasselbeck should start based on the fact he’s going up against the worst team in the league, but concerns arise due to his health. If Hasselbeck has any problems whatsoever, in comes Jake Locker (who wouldn’t be bad to have up here either). Nonetheless, be sure you think about starting Hasselbeck and hopefully he won’t suffer any injury if you decide to start him.

Mark Sanchez- New York Jets
Gang Green’s leader has done an adequate job of leading the New York Jets this season and puts up enough numbers for fantasy owners to be satisfied, especially with last week’s 37-10 pounding on the Washington Redskins. Sanchez went 13 for 21 for 181 yards and two touchdowns. This year, Sanchez has tossed 21 touchdowns, has thrown 11 interceptions and is on the verge of eclipsing the 3,000-yard mark. With solid numbers this season Sanchez has done pretty well for himself, but has made some mistakes that have either cost the Jets the game or have come ridiculously close. Sanchez is a good start if you don’t have anyone else, but be wary of Sanchez’s inability to get over the mistakes he makes early in the game.

Rex Grossman- Washington Redskins
Rex Grossman has had an on again off again year with Washington. Last week, he almost made a stellar comeback against the New England Patriots, coming within the final seconds of beating them. Grossman put up 252 passing yards and two touchdowns in the game against the worst ranked pass defense in the league. Look for this week to be no different as Grossman goes up against the 29th ranked pass defense in the New York Giants. Grossman is a solid choice to quarterback this week, but be aware of Grossman’s inability to put the game away if it is close. This is also a division match-up, which is always hard to predict, but also be conscious of the fact that the Giants are pushing to make the playoffs, which means the Redskins could be facing a few problems.

Fantasy Football:

Must Starts

Calvin Johnson @OAK- Megatron is in danger of falling off of his perch as the undisputed top wide-out in the game. He’s really cooled off since the torrid start of multiple scores in Detroit’s first four games. There’s no way anybody has good enough options to consider benching Johnson, so he must stay in your lineup. Calvin is due for a huge game, and maybe the Raiders secondary that has given up the third most TD tosses (23) in the NFL is just what he’s been waiting for.

Dwayne Bowe vs. GB- Owners who have suffered through the Todd Haley and Tyler Palko era are about to get handsomely rewarded. New interim head coach Romeo Crennel has indicated that his first order of business will be to install Kyle Orton as his starting QB. That’s great news for Bowe owners, who have waited nine long weeks for him to hit pay-dirt. With an NFL caliber signal-caller and Green Bay’s 31st ranked pass defense in town, there’s a great chance Bowe will make his long awaited return to the end zone.

Percy Harvin vs. NOS- Generally you want to stick with players who are on a nice streak and Harvin is red hot. He’s scored in four straight and is coming off a season high 10 receptions on 15 targets. While Adrian Peterson has been ailing, Harvin has even contributed some nice rushing yardage as an added bonus. A.P. is expected back, but don’t discount the possibility that the Vikings won’t still give Harvin a handful of rushes to keep the Saints off-balance. Even without the potential ground gimmick, New Orleans has been awful against the pass this year and Minnesota will be poised to be passing to play catch-up.

Proceed with caution

Marques Colston @MIN- On paper this is a New Orleans blow out, so you’d obviously want to plug their top wide-out into your lineup. But the Saints often struggle on the road, and their offense is so multi-faceted that it is difficult to expect consistent fantasy production from anyone other than Drew Brees. Colston is coming off a big, two TD performance last week, but this week those scores could easily go to a healthy Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore or even Robert Meachem. Overall we like Colston in this game, but temper your expectations.

DeSean Jackson vs. NYJ- Michael Vick’s return to the starting lineup paid immediate dividends for Jackson last week when found the end zone for the first time since week five. Enter Revis Island. It’s still not know how healthy Jeremy Maclin is, but if he misses all or part of this contest, DeSean could be matched up with extraordinary Jets cornerback Darrell Revis. If that indeed happens, Jackson will be lucky to even accumulate 5o receiving yards and will be highly unlikely to score.

Steve Smith @HOU- Smith hit 100+ receiving yards last week for the first time since week eight, but he’ll find the going much more difficult for this game. The Texans are third in the NFL defending the pass and Smith will likely be matched up with shut-down corner Jonathan Joseph.

Sit ‘em

Malcolm Floyd vs. BAL- Floyd had a big game two weeks ago versus the Jags, but that was more a result of blown coverages by Jacksonville’s second team secondary than anything spectacular Floyd did. He only received four targets in that game (catching all four) and followed that up with a stinker last week against an average Bills secondary. Since he missed a month with an injured hip, Floyd has been surpassed on the Chargers’ pecking order by a healthy Antonio Gates and rookie Vincent Brown. An even bigger problem this week will be matching up with a Baltimore Ravens defense that has only surrendered nine touchdown passes this season.

Laurent Robinson @TB- Normally you’d never advocate benching somebody as hot as Robinson has been for half a season; in fact, Robinson might be better placed as a “proceed with caution” player. But there are some things working to slow down his momentum. First, he’s nursing a bum shoulder that has limited his practice time all week. Secondly, Miles Austin is healthy and starting. Finally, the Bucs are so pathetic against the run, that we can expect the Cowboys to exploit that weakness with a healthy dose of Felix Jones. If Dallas is successful on the ground, they’ll utilize less three-receiver formations, meaning Robinson could spend a lot of time standing on the sidelines.

Fantasy Football:

Congratulations to those of you who have qualified for the fantasy playoffs, or have already moved beyond the first round. Months of research and dedication have paid dividends, and you should enjoy your accomplishment, while you continue to diligently manage your team.

If you own any of the elite backs that are unquestioned must starts, this column will not reiterate what you already know, with glowing accounts regarding their explosive ability. You really don’t need reassurance about starting Arian Foster against Carolina, but you might have a question about starting Rashard Mendenhall against the 49ers. However, all matchups are important – good or bad – and will not be totally ignored either. Still, there will be more detail provided about the backs that are most likely to create indecisiveness. And hopefully, you will finish reading this having secured the solutions that you need.

Below, you will find comprehensive fantasy rankings of the top 40 running backs for this week’s games. Plus, some commentary to assist you with your lineup dilemmas. As of this writing, Adrian Peterson’s status is still in question. He is being ranked as if he will be lining up as a starter for Minnesota against the Saints. If he is ultimately forced to miss that contest, Toby Gerhart would vault into the top 25, and become a viable No. 2.

As you consider your matchups, and monitor injuries, weather conditions and other factors, remember that the Jaguars and Falcons are involved in the Thursday night game. Owners should make sure that Maurice Jones-Drew and Michael Turner, are safely inserted into their lineups before the early kickoff.

With that, let’s progress to a detailed look at which running backs you should depend upon, to help maximize the chances of winning your fantasy matchups in week 15.

DEFINITE STARTS

Cedric Benson
Until week 14, Benson had exhibited that he was ineffective against formidable defenses. And even though he revised that script somewhat by manufacturing 91 yards against Houston’s normally stingy run defenders, 42 of those occurred on one play. But he has displayed great consistency, with his track record of success versus hospitable rush defenses. In two games against Cleveland, Benson averaged 114 YPG and scored twice. And he also generated 104 yards versus Buffalo. It really has become tremendously simple to determine which games that he should be in your lineups, and this is the perfect time. The Rams have fielded the league’s worst rush defense throughout the regular season, and anyone who starts Benson will collect a sizable number of fantasy points.

Reggie Bush
Bush continues to be a very proficient feature back for Miami, and a consistent point producer for fantasy owners. Two of his three 100-yard rushing performances have taken place in the past two weeks. And since week 7, he has rushed for 538 yards (77 YPG), and scored five TDs. He has also established a new career high with 770 yards, and should rip Buffalo’s 25th ranked rush defense on Sunday. The Bills have allowed a whopping 158.3 YPG in their past three games, missed being included with the Best Matchups that are listed above.

Shonn Greene
The Jets have maintained their commitment to the running game, and toward employing Greene as their primary back. He has captured 20+ carries in five different games, including the 24 that he garnered against Kansas City. Greene will be allowed sufficient opportunities to pound the same Eagle defense that withered at the challenge of tackling Marshawn Lynch in week 13, and yielded 103 yards to Bush last Sunday. He will enter the game with sizable momentum, having established a new season highs in rushing yards (129) and total yards (187) in week 14. Plus, four of his six TDs just occurred in the past two games, and he could easily provide another score in this matchup.

Chris Johnson
So now what should Johnson’s owners do? He had generated 486 yards and three TDs in the four games heading into week 14, then proceeded to deliver just 23 yards on 11 attempts against New Orleans. While it was the fifth time that he has failed to reach 25 yards this season, it was also just the second time since week 7. While his production has been highly unpredictable, it is not recommended that you bench him during his enticing rematch with the Colts’ 30th ranked run defenders. Indianapolis has allowed the second highest number of rushing TDs (18), and even though they held Johnson to 34 yards in week 8, it is highly doubtful that he will be contained again.

START THEM, BUT…

Steven Jackson
Even though you invested a high draft selection in Jackson, you should examine his recent production closely while considering your options. His 139 YPG in weeks 8-10 is a distant memory, as he has averaged just 47 YPG in his last four games. His TD against Seattle, was the first since week 8, and came after an extremely disturbingly series of plays near the goal line. The Rams attempted multiple passes, and also employed Cadillac Williams, before finally entrusting Jackson. While he did collect 60 receiving yards, that was easily his season high, and is not something that you can rely on. He is a victim of the Rams’ multiple deficiencies on offense, as opposing defenses can focus their attention on containing him, until a large deficit forces St. Louis to pass. The same scenario could easily occur against Cincinnati’s seventh ranked rush defense.

LeGarrette Blount
Blount rebounded from his paltry 19-yard rushing performance in week 13, to register 74 yards in week 14. While he also scored his fifth TD of the season, he did fumble twice. But despite the blend of encouraging and unfavorable developments, neither Mossis Madu nor Kregg Lumpkin represent a legitimate threat to his workload. However, a huge deficit certainly would, and it is highly possible that the Buccaneers will find themselves trailing Dallas by a considerable margin. That would not bode well for Blount, who has exceeded two receptions in only one game this season, and is jettisoned to the sidelines on passing downs with far too much frequency. It is also doubtful that he will amass significant yardage against the NFL’s eighth ranked rush defense.

Jonathan Stewart
The weekly guessing game involving how often Stewart and teammate DeAngelo Williams will be utilized continues to create a massive challenge for fantasy owners. Stewart was allotted 12 touches against the Falcons in week 14, compared to the eight that were garnered by Williams. But, Stewart failed miserably to take advantage of his opportunities, managing just rushing 29 yards. Worse, he dropped multiple passes, and only collected 27 receiving yards. Since he has been held to less than 50 rushing yards in eight different games, and is facing the fourth ranked Texans’ rush defense, the only reason to start him, is if you believe that he will generate a sufficient number of yardage as a target for Cam Newton.

BEST WAIVER WIRE ADDITIONS

Felix Jones
After DeMarco Murray departed Dallas’ week 14 contest with a broken ankle, Jones amassed 106 yards on attempts. It was just the second time that he has surpassed 100 yards this season, and the first time since week 3. But with Murray now unavailable, there is no question that Jones will now be the Cowboys’ feature back, and will capture a significant workload because of it. And that will occur just in time for an exceptional matchup with Tampa Bay’s 28th ranked rush defense. Not only are the Buccaneers allowing 160.3 YPG in their past three games, but they have been gashed for a league worst 19 TDs. Jones should add his name to the assortment of backs who have tortured this unit. Secure him for your roster, and watch him reward you with fantasy points.

Ryan Grant
He is only being listed here because your alternative waiver wire options are almost assuredly meager at best. Anyone who peruses the statistics, and did not witness his 85-yard, two TD performance against the Raiders might believe that he has suddenly rediscovered his burst. He has not. But, he did an excellent job of exploiting poor tackling, and an undisciplined style that Oakland delivered in week 14. If the Chiefs display the same combination of faulty rush defense on Sunday, then Grant could supply you with adequate numbers. But only if Starks is unavailable once again.

Chris Ivory
His value is completely dependent upon Mark Ingram’s status, just as has been the case throughout the season. Ivory has participated in just three games, and they have been the only contests in which Ingram has been sidelined. While he only carried six times for 18 yards in his week 8 season debut, Ivory was allotted 14 APG in the last two, and averaged 60 YPG. It is reasonable to believe that his workload and production would be consistent with those more recent numbers, if Ingram is forced to miss Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. While the ninth ranked Viking rush defense is formidable, an active Ivory could still be utilized by fantasy owners who are in need of an emergency replacement.

AVOID IF YOU CAN

Rashard Mendenhall
Yes, I know… you exercised patience during his weeks of low productivity, then he began to deliver, and helped get you this far into the playoffs. But even though his output has improved in recent weeks, he has exceeded 70 yards just twice all season, and one of those just occurred against the pitiful Browns. This week, he is attempting to navigate through the league’s premier rush defense. The Niners have not allowed any runner to reach 100 yards in their last 28 games, and still have yet to permit a TD this season. There is simply too much risk in relying on Mendenhall to somehow find success against a unit that has contained every other rusher throughout the season. You need to look elsewhere for your RBs this week.

Ahmad Bradshaw
Those of you who started Ahmad Bradshaw in week 14, first had to endure the shock of learning that he would begin the game as a spectator for disciplinary reasons, then watched in horror as he produced a season low 12 yards. If you managed to survived his dreadful night, congratulations. But even though it’s unlikely that his playing time will once again be reduced for punitive purposes, there is another reason for concern. Brandon Jacobs was far more impressive than Bradshaw in Dallas, thrashing the Cowboys for 101 yards and two TDs. He will pilfer a sizable percentage of carries against the Redskins, because Bradshaw has not run effectively since returning from his foot injury. Make him prove that he can, before you use him.

Peyton Hillis
Since his long awaited return in week 12, Hillis’ workload has steadily decreased from 19 carries to 12, to only 10 against the Steelers. And his yardage totals have responded correspondingly, from 65, to 45, to 25. Not exactly the direction that fantasy owners would prefer to see, heading into Sunday’s matchup with a steadily improving Arizona rush defense. The Cardinals were just 26th against the run through seven weeks, but have since improved to 19th, while allowing just 83.6 YPG in the last three games. The combination of Hillis’ propensity for injuries, the potential for Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya to steal carries, and a suddenly stingy opponent; should provide a sufficient number of reasons to stay away.

DO NOT START

C. J. Spiller
He had performed increasingly well entering week 14, amassing 138 yards on 33 attempts in his previous two games. But he could only assemble 46 yards against the Chargers, who had been permitting 131.7 YPG entering the contest. He did only receive 12 carries, as the Bills eventually trailed by a considerable margin. But he will be lining up against a far more formidable opponent this Sunday, and will ultimately struggle. No rush defense has been stingier than Miami in recent weeks, and the third ranked run stuffers have allowed just five TDs all season. He does not figure to generate much success as a target for Matt Moore or J.P. Losman either. This is simply not a good week to rely on Spiller.

DeAngelo Williams
Williams has generated 85+ rushing yards in two different games this season, including the 87 that he amassed against Atlanta. But in both contests, his total was achieved because he exploded for one lengthy run. In week 5, it was a 69-yard burst, while he delivered a 74-yard scamper versus the Falcons. That is the only way in which he can assemble a reasonable yardage total, because he is allotted a meager workload (9.7 APG). When you combine his limited potential for significant yardage, with the fact that he is losing goal line touches to both Stewart and Newton, it is clear that you should search elsewhere.

Fantasy Football:

The Green Bay Packers are 13-0 and for the moment chasing perfection. But a loss or another Greg Jennings-style injury could force Mike McCarthy and co. to be conservative down the stretch and rest their top starters.

While that would only make sense for a team built to make a deep playoff run this year, that golden logic is still a thorn in your fantasy football team’s side. Or at least it might be.

Call me crazy, but I believe Clay Matthews, Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, and Mike McCarthy when they allude to “going for” perfection. The Packers clearly have winning a Super Bowl at the top of their “to do” list, but this is not a team that is about to shy away from greatness that comes across a team so rarely.

Green Bay has nothing left to play for except perfection for the final three weeks, but if they start sitting guys now, they risk being rusty when the games actually count. Look for them to go for 16-0, but once/if they do lose their first game of the year, bank on them sitting their starters immediately after.

As for the other potential NFL playoff teams out there, here’s a quick look and a verdict:

New England Patriots (10-3)

• Even though Wes Welker went down two years ago, you know Bill Belichick doesn’t sit his guys. Besides, with three other 10-3 teams, you know the Patriots are going to play all the way through until the regular season is over.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)

• As soon as the division is wrapped up/decided, you can start banking on the Steelers resting some of their guys. The main one is Ben Roethlisberger, who has an ankle injury and is questionable for week 15.

Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

• Same deal here, as the Ravens are likely to rest Ray Rice down the stretch, as soon as their division is decided. If so, Ricky Williams should be the cow bell and could be a worth-while add for a fantasy playoff run.

Houston Texans (10-3)

• This is the team I’m most worried about in the AFC. They’ve clinched their division and a playoff spot, and they’ve experienced enough injuries throughout the year to make you think they’ll rest most of their guys. Andre Johnson is a risky play for the next three weeks, while Arian Foster should be seeing a lighter load with each passing week to end the regular season.

New Orleans Saints (10-3)

• I’m not overly worried about the Saints resting their guys. They’ll probably keep Mark Ingram off the field as much as possible, but Drew Brees is going for Dan Marinos’ yardage record, and I don’t see Sean Payton keeping him from getting it. Besides, the Saints haven’t clinched the NFC South yet, so they have good reason to keep their starters in.

San Francisco 49ers (10-3)

• The 49ers are riding a two-game losing streak and it could become three against the Steelers in week 15. They may want to go out on a high note in the final two weeks if they lose again. However, they’ve already locked down their division, so I’d expect them to take it easy on a less than 100% Frank Gore.

All other teams not mentioned have seeding, their division, or a playoff spot in general to fight for, so it would make no sense for their teams to sit their top players. The key is to stray away from playoff-bound fantasy options that are not 100% healthy. If their teams know they’re in the big dance, they’ll be less likely to force them onto the field.

Fantasy Football:

Weather doesn’t look to be a huge concern for Week 14. Clear and cold is the forecast for a ton of games. There could be rain in San Diego and at the two Florida games, Bucs and Jags and Eagles at Dolphins. It is possible that a lousy playing field could slow down the Patriots high-powered offense as they travel to Washington to battle the Redskins.

Fantasy Football:

Fantasy Playoff RB Ranking Report: Week 14

Hopefully, you are about to be rewarded for months of exhaustive research and dedication that you placed into managing your fantasy teams, by securing a playoff spot in your league. We want you to win your league championships, and this column is yet another resource that we are providing to accomplish that goal.

Below, you will find comprehensive rankings of the top 50 running backs for this week’s encounters. Plus, some commentary to assist you with your lineup dilemmas.

If you own any of the elite backs that are unquestioned must starts, this column will not reiterate what you already know, with glowing accounts regarding their explosive ability. You really don’t need reassurance about starting Ray Rice against the Colts, but you might about starting Beanie Wells against the 49ers. However, their matchups are important – good or bad – and will not be totally ignored either. Still, there will be more detail provided about the backs that are most likely to create indecisiveness. And hopefully, you will finish reading this having secured the solutions that you need.

As you concentrate on matchups, injuries, weather, and other factors during this critical week, owners who are planning to start Rashard Mendenhall, or Peyton Hillis, must also make sure that they are safely inserted into your lineups before Thursday night’s kickoff.

With that, let’s progress to a detailed look at which running backs you should depend upon, to help maximize the chances of winning your fantasy matchups in week 14.

DEFINITE STARTS

Marshawn Lynch
This is likely the last time that he will be listed here, because he has now elevated himself into absolute must start status, along with the other backs who are being supplied with this week’s best matchups. He has now scored in eight consecutive games, and has rushed for 591 yards in his last five. And Sunday he will line up against the NFL’s worst run defenders. What is there to even think about?  Start him against the woeful Rams, and enjoy watching him deliver fantasy points for you.

Chris Johnson
The curious case of Chris Johnson appears to have finally resolved itself. After he presented frustrated fantasy owners with 366 yards and just one TD in his first eight games, he has gashed his last four opponents for 486 yards and three TDs. Now that his more recent numbers have resembled the torrid place that we had been accustomed to in previous seasons, it is now finally reasonable to expect favorable results against New Orleans’ 16th ranked rush defense (114.6 YPG). Plus, he will encounter even less resistance in week 15, during his enticing rematch with the Colts’ 30th ranked run defenders.

Willis McGahee
There really should not be any reason for caution about starting McGahee at this point. He has supplied us with every reason to believe that he will continue generating sizable yardage for the remainder of the season. After gashing the Bears for 111 yards on 20 attempts, he has exceeded 100 in six games, including his last two. He is closing in on his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season, which would also be his first since 2007. Plus, he plays through injuries, and is given a massive workload while doing so (18 APG). He should deliver another 100-yard effort, against a Chicago rush defense that could find themselves on the field extensively, due to the shortcomings of their injury depleted offense.

Reggie Bush
There should be no remaining doubters, as Bush’s ongoing performances have necessitated a thorough reassessment of his abilities. He has exploded for 435 yards and five TDs in his last six games, while adeptly handling an extensive workload in the process (16 APG). Not only has he established a new career high with 667 yards for the season, but he has consistently been effective between the tackles. All of which eliminates any reason to keep him reserved in your lineups. He should maintain his recent success, versus a 17^th ranked Philadelphia rush defense that has permitted 252 yards in their last two encounters.

Shonn Greene
The ground and pound approach been beneficial to Greene, who has averaged 18 APG in the seven games that he has been healthy since week 5. The extensive opportunities that he has been allotted have enabled him to accumulate 582 yards in his past eight games, while rushing for at least 70 in six of them. That includes the 88 yards that he amassed against the Redskins, which were supplemented by three TDs. Fantasy owners can be confident that he will continue to garner a healthy workload, and that he will find success against a Kansas City rush defense, that has allowed 602 yards in their last four games.

Roy Helu
As always, it is extremely dangerous for fantasy owners to rely upon any RB whose playing time is determined by  Mike Shanahan, and we were supplied with weekly evidence that supports that premise throughout most of the regular season. But Helu has been so effective, that he deserves to be in your starting lineups. He has been allotted exactly 23 carries in two consecutive games, and has taken advantage of the expanded workload by generating 208 yards (4.5 YPC) and two TDs in those contests. He possesses a burst, and has demonstrated that he will run with a purpose, making it nearly impossible for even Shanahan to alter his recent ball distribution.  He should deliver more excellent numbers against New England.

START THEM, BUT…

Beanie Wells
He will be forced to overcome his knee issue for the remainder of the season, although he has certainly proven that he can. He not only ranks ninth in rushing for the season with 916 yards, but is also tied for third among all RBs with nine rushing TDs. The concern is that he will line up against the 49ers, who have yet to permit any rushing TDs all season, and are nearly as unforgiving about allowing yardage (71.8). But unless you somehow have two better options, it is extremely difficult to sit him. Even with the horrific matchup versus San Francisco’s unrelenting run stoppers.

Michael Bush
He entered week 13 having gashed opponents for 530 rushing yards, and 731 total yards in his last five games. But that incredible bounty of fantasy points that Bush’s owners had been enjoying, came to abrupt end in Miami (10 carries, 18 yards), as did his streak of four consecutive games with a TD. So, where do owners go now? The return of Darren McFadden appears at least one more week away, therefore Bush’s appeal as the feature back remains intact. But can he rebound against Green Bay’s 13^th ranked rush defense?  The Packers are likely to score frequently, which could easily force the Raiders to forsake their running game more quickly than they normally would. That will place a cap on Bush’s production.

Donald Brown
In his last four games, Brown has averaged 14.5 YPG, and has rewarded the Colts with 244 yards, and 4.2 YPC. He has also scored two consecutive games, while exhibiting that he is currently Indy’s most effective runner. If Brown hasn’t already ascended into the team’s feature back, his workload is sizable enough to merit consideration in your lineups. And Brown is of course a legitimate roster addition, if he is somehow still available. While you should certainly utilize him for his week 15 matchup with Tennessee, it will be exceedingly difficult for him to negotiate yardage against Baltimore on Sunday.

BEST WAIVER WIRE ADDITIONS

Marion Barber
Forte owners who follow the advice of this column added Barber long ago. However, if he still available in your league, add him immediately. While he will deliver fantasy points, the one concern is exactly how many. He generated just 44 yards on 14 attempts against a Kansas City rush defense that entered the contest ranked 25^th. His issue if the lack of respect for Chicago’s passing game with Caleb Hanie. That enables opposing defenders to focus further upon containing the run. Denver (121.2) will certainly do that too. Still, if you are in need, Barber is a legitimate option.

Toby Gerhart
As of this writing, Adrian Peterson’s status is unclear, making Gerhart’s value worthy of discussion. In three games as a starter, both his opportunities and his yardage totals have steadily improved. His 91-yard rushing effort against Denver, was supplemented by 42 yards on eight receptions. That helped establish him as an option for fantasy owners, whose rosters have suddenly become depleted due to late season injuries. Another Gerhart start would involve an enticing matchup with Detroit’s 22nd ranked rush defense (125 YPG) which elevates him into consideration, if injuries have depleted you options.

Ricky Williams
Sure, he has only carried 82 times all season, and has exceeded nine attempts in just three games. But one of those occurred in week 13, when the Ravens chose to exploit Cleveland’s woeful rush defense. Williams garnered 16 attempts, and responded by generating a season high 76 yards, and a TD. That scenario could easily be replicated, against a Colt rush defense that is even worse (144.2 YPG, 17 TDs). If you are searching for help, he could provide a scoring boost.

AVOID IF YOU CAN

Jonathan Stewart
At least he was able to garner more attempts than fellow Panther RB DeAngelo Williams for the first time since week 9, and accomplished far more with them. By amassing a season high 80 yards and a TD with his 14 carries, Stewart reestablished that he is more trustworthy than Williams, even though both backs possess a low ceiling to their opportunities. Fantasy owner should not only be ecstatic with the ball distribution, but all with his employment near the goal line, whenever Can Newton is not pilfering those coveted chances. A challenging matchup against Atlanta’s third ranked run defenders causes the tempered endorsement.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis
BJGE had averaged 13.5 APG during November, and had the benefit of an appealing matchup against Indianapolis in week 13. But against a Colt rush defense that had allowed 150.6 YPG and 15 TDs, Green-Ellis was allotted just six carries, which were the fewest since week 8. It served as yet another reminder (as if we needed it), that the Patriots’ offensive strategy is concocted by Bill Belichick, and could change at any time. Green-Ellis did score his eighth TD of the season, which is the primary enticement toward starting him. But there is too much at stake for you to thrust him into your lineup, since it is too difficult to forecast how significantly New England’s game plan will change each week.

Maurice Morris
His value is very dependent upon Kevin Smith’s ankle, but if he ascends into another starting role, he would obtain enough touches to potentially help you. He will encounter difficulty attempting to navigate through the Vikings’ 12^th ranked rush defense.  He has the potential to be an effective target for Matthew Stafford, since he has averaged seven receptions and 64 yards in his last two games. However, he should only be utilized if you are truly desperate, and only if Smith is ultimately unavailable. .

DO NOT START

Cedric Benson
CedBen was engulfed once again by the seventh ranked Pittsburgh rush defense (55 YPG in two games), and the outcome won’t be any more favorable against the even stingier Houston run stoppers (90.7 YPG). Benson has proven that he is eminently benchable against all but the league’s worst run defenders. The good news for fantasy owners, is that after you sit him this Sunday, he will benefit from the best possible matchup in week 15, against a St. Louis unit that is the NFL’s worst at containing rushers (157.8 YPG).

DeAngelo Williams
Well, that success was short lived wasn’t it? After averaging 71 YPG in weeks 11-12, Williams’ paltry output against the normally hospitable Bucs’ run defense (29 yards on 11 attempts) was a cruel reminder of the disappointment that has been prevalent throughout the season. It also dealt a critical blow to fantasy owners who were enticed by recent success to start him. Do not repeat that mistake. If his limited workload, and the fact that both Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart will usurp the goal line carries do not provide sufficient reasons to avoid him, then his matchup with a sturdy Atlanta unit that only permits 90 YPG must be.

Peyton Hillis
He did not aggravate his troublesome hamstring injury in week 13, but long suffering owners were provided with yet another disturbing development, when he strained his hip. Anyone who has stuck with Hillis throughout the regular season, should be commended for immense fortitude. And he is still worth keeping, because he captures a sizable percentage of the workload when he is in Cleveland’s lineup. But if he does line up against the sturdy Steeler rush defense, expecting him to supply you with anything beyond modest numbers, is far too hazardous for your postseason aspirations. Especially in a short week.

Ryan Grant
He is listed here for those of you who already have him, and are planning to employ him against the Raiders’ 28^th ranked rush defense. Yes, that is an enticing matchup, and he certainly will garner touches with James Starks battling an ankle issue. But when that scenario occurred in week 13, Grant could only manufacture 29 yards despite being allotted 13 carries (2.2 YPC). He has failed to run for even 30 yards since week 3, and has not scored all year. Plus, Brandon Saine captured 10 touches against the Giants, and will continue to pilfer some of Grant’s opportunities. There are simply better options for you at this critical point of the season.

Ben Tate
It might be tempting to utilize him as a flex, since he is actually the league’s 18th leading rusher, and is averaging 5.5 YPC with his 138 attempts. But while he has been extremely effective when entrusted with the ball, that just does not occur with enough frequency. Game flow determines how much he is utilized, making it too risky to use him. The advent of the T.J. Yates era does not guarantee an increased workload, making it just as likely that Tate will receive five carries, as it is that he will exceed double digits. There is too much danger in using him against Cincinnati’s sixth ranked rush defense.

Fantasy Football:

Playoffs? Don’t talk about…playoffs! Are you kiddin me? Here’s my love em/hate em list heading into the fantasy, (insert your best Jim Mora voice here) “PLAYOFFS!”

In a seriously turbulent and unpredictable season to date, we’ve seen the “dream team” Eagles plunge their way into what has turned out to be a nightmare. Perhaps they meant bad dream. We’ve seen the Chargers, who were picked by many to be Super Bowl contenders, contend for the crown of mediocrity in the midst of a 6 game losing streak. We’ve seen the upstart Bengals riding their rookies to legitimacy; a reality that few had predicted. The Manning-less Colts have become the meaning-less Colts. No disrespect Indy fans, we just call em like we see em. And don’t worry, there’s this guy out there named Andrew Luck that you’ll probably draft. Perhaps you’ve heard of him? He’s pretty good. Just saying. Then there’s the Broncos riding the Tebow train. How it keeps rolling is a somewhat of a mystery, but the fact remains, that train is definitely a-rollin. All aboard!

The injured reserve and PUP lists have been filling up, coaches and cheerleaders have been trampled, referees have been pushed around, defenseless players have been stomped on, normal tackling is now apparently roughing the passer….you get the idea. Yes my friends it’s been a crazy year for football.

Nevertheless, this is the game we flock to like Cujo on a Ford Pinto. This is the game we love. Hell, this is the game we NEED! Without football, what else would our excuse be to sit around in our sweatpants all Sunday, eat nachos and scream at our T.V’s? Ok, maybe sometimes Thursday and Monday too, but you get the point.

With all that said, let’s get down to business. The playoffs are here! Here’s who we think you should love and hate going into your week 14 matchups.

QB Love:

Without explanation, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Cam Newton should be starters for your team….period. End of story. Start them.

Matthew Stafford – not only does he have nearly twice as many TD passes as he does interceptions, but he’s got over 3500 yards passing, a 91.3 QB rating and he’s going up against a Minnesota pass defense that gives up more points to opposing QB’s than any other team in the league. Not to mention, he throws to Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. Enough said. Start him!

Tony Romo – the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives, and they just lost a game they should have won against Arizona. Going into this week’s game against the Giants, look for them to regroup and bounce back with a little attitude. The Giants defense ranks lower against the pass than Arizona’s, so expect a big game from Romo.

Joe Flacco – playing against the Indianapolis pass defense is every quarterback’s dream this year. Well that’s just what Mr. Flacco has the luxury of this week. The Colts have been bad at pretty much everything all year, but against the pass they’re particularly bad. Flacco may have been just a decent QB2 for you this year, but unless you’ve got one of the obvious QB studs, I’d seriously consider starting him this week. The Colts are lousy.

Phillip Rivers – yeah I know, he’s been seriously disappointing this year, but let’s not forget the career he’s had before all that. He’s still a top ranked QB. Not to mention the Chargers (despite a horrible losing streak) are still in the thick of a competitive AFC West race. Rivers knows how to win, and he’s got Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates to throw to. He’s up against a Bills defense that ranks just 21st against the pass, AND the bolts are at home. I like Rivers this week.

Sleeper Picks:

Michael Vick- he is (reluctantly) on the good side of this list….kind of. “If” he plays, he’s coming back from a 3 game absence to face a not so great Miami pass defense, and in warmer weather to boot. And although both of these teams are playing for purely pride at this point, no motivation to play hard is lost just because their playoff chances are gone. If anything they are playing to showcase their professionalism and that next year will be different. And let’s not underestimate how far pride can take a player. Vick is without a doubt a proud competitor and is sure to have a big week in the not so distant future. This week could very well be that week. However, keep in mind the risks involved in starting him. His mobility is always a threat to his health. This is the opening playoff game, so you may want to think long and hard before putting Vick in as your starter. If you’re deep at the position, by all means sit him, but if he puts up big numbers and he’s on your bench, or if you start him and he lays an egg, don’t say we didn’t warn you. That’s why he’s a sleeper.

Alex Smith – the guy has been a nice surprise for his owners this year. He’s put up numbers that won’t bring the house down by any stretch, but he’s been reliable. Reliability can sometimes be difficult to find at the QB position, so any consistent play is good play. He put up his first 20 fantasy point performance last week, and this week faces a Cardinals pass defense that lies in the middle of the pack against opposing QB’s. They’ve had a few games where they haven’t given up much for TD passes, but simply aren’t good enough to keep that going for the remainder of the season. I look for Alex to toss a few TD’s and put up a decent fantasy score this week.

QB Hate:

Ben Roethlisberger – Cleveland may not be very good in many areas, but against the pass, they’re the Fort Knox of professional football: quarterbacks simply aren’t allowed access to their secondary. An opposing QB hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown’s in a game against these guys since week 4, and not once has an opposing QB had a 20 point fantasy game against them. Look for the trend to continue this week.
The Browns don’t like the Steelers. Not that it’s any different the other way around, but if the Browns can’t make it into the playoffs, at least they can take a shot at keeping their hated division rival Steelers out of it. Sit Big Ben unless you’re deep at QB.

Colt McCoy – much like the Browns pass ‘D’, the Steelers pass ‘D’ isn’t so bad either. Actually they’re pretty dang good. They’re ranked in the top 5 in the league in defending the pass, and with them locked in a dead heat with Baltimore for tops in the division, they will be out for blood this week. Look for McCoy to struggle against a stout ‘Steel Curtain’.

Dan Orlovsky – sure he had a nice game tossing the ball against the Patriots, but the Ravens pass defense is strong in all areas that the Patriots lack in that department. This isn’t going to be Orlovsky’s week if all goes according to plan. Sit him unless you have no other options.

Mark Sanchez – he’s too up and down to really ever feel good about starting him, and this week against a Chiefs pass defense that has been one of the few bright spots in their 2011 campaign, I’d look for the inconsistency to carry on. Sanchez remains dirty in week 14. Sit him unless you want to pull all your hair out.

RB Love:

Ray Rice – he’s playing at a superstar level, and he’s rushing against the Colts awful run ‘D’ this week. Start him!

Marshawn Lynch – a lot of talk surrounds Lynch and whether or not he’s the real deal. His numbers for the past five weeks say that he absolutely is, and going against the Rams run defense is promising. I’d look for his productivity to continue in a big way, especially with the Seahawks still mathematically eligible for post-season play. Beast mode should be in full effect this week. They’re playing in Seattle on Monday night. Watch out for earthquakes.

Michael Turner – the Panthers give up so many fantasy points to opposing running backs, it’s sad. Unless of course you’re Michael Turner, in which case it’s enticing. Five times this year Carolina has given up over 30 points to opposing RB’s. If you don’t start Turner this week, it had better be because you’ve got Barry Sanders in your lineup. Otherwise, I just don’t get it.

Shonn Greene – he’s coming off of a 3 TD performance last week, and with the Chiefs run defense being not so stellar, I’d look for him to keep it up. Also, let’s keep in mind that with Kansas City’s pass defense being pretty good and Mark Sanchez being unreliable at best, look for Greene to carry the load offensively for the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

Sleepers:

Darren Sproles – it’s not necessarily a bad idea to start a guy as talented as Mr. Sproles, but the problem lies in the fact that New Orleans can’t figure out which one of their three running backs they want to carry the load for them from week to week. Sproles could be a good choice though, he runs like Forrest Gump and seems to be the most dynamic of the three capable tailbacks. Not to mention Tennessee’s run defense is arguably not all that great.

C.J. Spiller – with Fred Jackson on injured reserve, Spiller has become the man on the ground in Buffalo. He had a good outing last week and is going up against a San Diego team that doesn’t seem to know who they are these days. He could have a nice game for your team this week.

RB Hate:

Beanie Wells – the 49ers haven’t given up a rushing touchdown all year. This does not bode well for Beanie, or any other Cardinal thinking about changing that statistic. Unless you have no other choice, I’d sit him and feel great about doing so.

Steven Jackson – he’s had a somewhat unpredictable season on the ground, and is set to face a stout Seahawks run defense that doesn’t like to give opposing running backs very much room to work with. I’d sit him unless I had good reason not to.

Willis McGahee – with Tim Tebow bringing…..well I’m not sure what he’s bringing, but he’s bringing something to the table that keeps Denver headed in the right direction, I simply don’t trust the Broncos running game these days. Especially not against a Bears run defense that comes to play week in and week out.

Cedric Benson – I don’t like any running back playing against Houston, bottom line. Unless you’re empty at the RB position, don’t start him.

WR Love:

I know it almost goes without saying, regardless of his opposition, but START CALVIN JOHNSON THIS WEEK! He’s going against a Viking pass defense that isn’t good, and he’s arguably the best wide-out in the game. Start him for Pete’s sake.

Percy Harvin – he’s on a roll in a major way, while the rest of his team simply is not. He’s the bright spot in this offense, especially with AP injured. He can run kicks, catch passes, play at the tailback position….whatever is asked of him, he can do it and do it well. Most definitely start him.

Dez Bryant – he’s always a threat to score. He’s an even bigger threat when you’re facing a Giants pass defense that notoriously gives up big numbers to opposing receivers. You can feel good about starting him this week.

Brandon Marshall – now is the time to start Miami’s best receiver against the Eagles lowly pass defense that has underachieved all year. The Eagles are banged up and reeling at this point. Marshall should have a nice fantasy game.

Sleepers:

A.J. Green – he’s up against the Texans defense, which right off the top isn’t overly promising for solid fantasy numbers, but he’s a playmaker. If any Bengal is going to find the end zone this week, I’d expect it to be Green. Start him if you’re low on WR’s.

Santana Moss – he appears to be fully healed from his injury, and is facing the horrible New England pass defense. Look for him to turn a few heads this week, especially with another receiving option (Fred Davis) suspended for the remainder of the season.

WR Hate:

Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown – it’s not very often that one would place these guys on such a list, but this is likely the week for it if there ever were such a week. Cleveland has only given up 4 touchdowns through the air this season. Their pass ‘D’ is ferocious. I would only start Wallace or Brown this week unless my roster was flat out empty in the receiver position. No, it won’t be a total shocker if one of them had a good game; they’re good receivers, especially Wallace. But this is strictly a matchup based prediction. You be the judge, but tread carefully on this one, you could get burned.

Dwayne Bowe – this season has been miserable for his fantasy statistics, and will likely continue against the Jets and their solid pass defense. Not to mention the QB debacle going on in K.C. these days. Sit him unless you have no other options.

Brandon Lloyd – he plays for the Rams, who in the opinion of many, cannot be trusted to put up consistent fantasy numbers at any position, especially going into the playoffs. Seattle has stepped it up on their pass defense as well. Sit him this week.

TE Love:

Brandon Pettigrew – Playing the Vikings this week is a favorable matchup for Pettigrew, and he’s got Stafford throwing to him to top it off. He should find himself open quite a bit with Megatron drawing plenty of attention.

Dustin Keller – the Chiefs pass ‘D’ isn’t very good. Sanchez has had his occasional issues with throwing the ball deep, so look for Keller to be a viable option throughout this game. This is a great time to start him.

Jake Ballard – he’s obviously not the top option for Eli, as Cruz and Nicks are the go to guys, but he’s a good option nonetheless. He could produce against Dallas.

Sleepers:

Marcedes Lewis – he’s been less than exciting all year, and has yet to reel in a TD, but this could be the week he breaks out of his shell. Especially against a Tampa Bay pass defense that could very easily be the team to allow it.

Kellen Winslow – he’s going up against the Jags pass ‘D’ and he’s due. That’s all I can say. Don’t be surprised to see him catch a TD or two. This is Winslow’s week to bust out. Maybe.

TE Hate:

Jermaine Gresham – playing against Houston is bad for any offensive player not named Aaron Rodgers.

Visanthe Shiancoe – he has two touchdowns all year and he’s going up against a good Lions pass ‘D’. Unless you are strapped for options, you may consider sitting him this time out.

D/ST Love:

Ravens, 49ers, Jets, Texans, Seahawks

D/ST Hate:

Titans, Raiders, Saints, Redskins, Vikings

And that my fantasy football friends, is a wrap. This has been another exciting week of “watch the gridironexperts.com guys do their expert thing.” We hope to have been helpful, and may our advice be chocked full of expertise to guide you to victory in your fantasy playoffs. Best of luck from here on out.

Enjoy your nachos and sweatpants.

Photo: SI.com

Fantasy Football:

Fantasy Football Line-up decisions are important over the next couple weeks so Gridiron Experts thought we’d break out the Outplay formula for you to dig into. The following is a breakdown of match-ups and stats gathered various sources to compile this statistical break down.

We hope you can you use this article when making the tough fantasy football start’s and Sit’s for the first week of the Fantasy playoffs.

For those who are new to the Outplay Formula scroll to the bottom for info or download this .PDF info pack

Week 14 Outplay Formula

How To Read The Out Play

***Please note the Outplay is a helpful guide, obvious Fantasy starts and sits should not be overlooked***
The idea behind the outplay formula is that a team or player could be performing better or worse than we might think, based on the opponents they’ve gone up against.The Outplay has been created for the following for each team:

• Overall Outplay Production- A combination of the teams PPG on offense and defense in comparison to all the opponents they have faced. This is used to help pick winners.
• Offensive Passing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams passing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Defensive Passing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams defensive passing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Offensive Rushing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams rushing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Defensive Rushing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams defensive rushing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.

The math behind the formula is a bit confusing, but basically you take a teams points per game average on offense and defense and compare it to all of its opponents offensive and defensive PPG. Lets say, for example, DEN is averaging 21 PPG on offense, and has played 5 teams that are allowing an average of only 14 PPG on defense. That means that offensively, DEN is “outplaying” their opponents by 7 PPG. The same principle is applied to defensive points allowed per game and rushing and passing yards per game.

*The best example I can give you is from week 7 of the 2007 season: Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Buffalo Bills (1-4)

Baltimore was a 3.5 point favorite, and based on their record many believed that 3.5 points was a steal. Looking back, we now know that Buffalo was a team that made a late season run, while Baltimore fell apart by mid-season. If you looked at BAL’s opponents up until that point it was a walk in the park. BAL had 4 wins from ARZ / STL / SF / NYJ. However, BAL had a shoot-out with ARZ, and could only put up 9 points against the 49er’s in a 9-7 win. Meanwhile, Buffalo had 4 losses to NE / DAL / PIT / DEN. Even though BUF lost these games, they were able to put up decent outplay numbers both offensively and defensively against these tough opponents. Although the schedule could have been different, it was how well each team had performed that the outplay noticed. BAL was struggling against weak teams, and BUF was playing well against strong teams. Due to our outplay formula, we had Buffalo favored by 2 for this week. The final outcome:

BUF 19 BAL 14!

Fantasy Football: