2011 Best and Worst Value: Running Backs

Since the 2011 fantasy season ended, you’ve had a very brief period to recharge. Yet many of you already want to start planning your 2012 drafts. This column will deliver the jump start that you need to begin that process.

We will examine RBs that provided the best and worst value for their owners during the 2011 fantasy season. This will be determined by combining their numbers, and their average draft position heading into the regular season. We’ll utilize standard scoring of six points per TD, and one point per 10 rushing/receiving yards in a 12-team league.

The Worst Value section will not include backs that were lost to injury for an extended period of time during the year, and will instead focus strictly on those who performed throughout the majority of the regular season, but did so in a disappointing fashion. Injuries are certainly unfortunate, but they are nonetheless expected. And it is not necessarily useful for you to read a retrospective about Jamaal Charles being placed on injured reserve last September.

BEST VALUE

Marshawn Lynch

Even though Lynch entered 2011 primed for an extensive workload as Seattle’s feature back, fantasy owners were not overly enamored by the opportunity to select him. He was just the 30^th RB chosen, as Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Grant, and Mark Ingram were among those who departed the draft board before him. Lynch

ultimately was allotted the NFL’s fourth highest number of carries (285), and delivered exceptional numbers. Not only did he finish seventh in rushing with 1,204 yards, but he also tied for third among all backs with 12 TDs, and became the first runner to crack the code for scoring a rushing TD against San Francisco. There is no doubt that he will be selected much earlier in drafts next summer.

Reggie Bush

For five seasons, he proved unfailingly that he was simply not a reliable starter for fantasy owners. Which resulted in Bush being drafted just 31^st among all backs (78 ADP). However, after averaging only 30 YPG in his first four games, he completely reinvented himself, including the 854 yards that he gained in his final nine games. The impressive cluster of performances propelled him to 11^th in rushing yardage for the season with 1,086, which nearly doubled his previous career high. That, along with his 5.0 YPC, vaulted him from being a borderline No. 3 start, to one that you can confidently utilize as a high end No. 2, or even a low end No. 1.

Willis McGahee

McGahee was just the 46^th RB chosen in 2011 drafts, exactly 23 slots after teammate Knowshon Moreno. Of course, considering that he had averaged just 532 yards from 2008-2010, it was understandable that he was not an enticing option for fantasy owners. But he became the Broncos’ feature back in week two, and delivered a magnificent season for those who had selected him. He surpassed 1,000 yards for the first time since 2007, and finished eighth in rushing with 1,199 yards, while performing in 15 games. While he will turn 31 in October, it would be wise not to underestimate him again.

Michael Bush

While teammate Darren McFadden was being secured in the second round, Bush remained available until fantasy owners had chosen 42 other backs, which made him the 120^th overall selection last summer. But McFadden’s never-ending foot issue, lifted Bush into the feature back role in week seven, and he delivered 1,395 total yards, including 977 on the ground. He provides the consummate example of why you should protect yourself by handcuffing your most valuable RBs. Any McFadden owner who failed to do so can now explain the negative ramifications to you at length.

Darren Sproles

Sproles averaged 511 total yards in five seasons with the Chargers, including a meager 231 yards on the ground. That understandably compelled fantasy owners to wait until the 12^th round to draft him, which made Sproles just the 59th RB taken. As a result, he departed the draft board well after teammates Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas. But he generated a magnificent season, establishing new career highs in rushing yards (603), receiving yards (710), and TDs (nine).  Plus, he led all backs with 86 receptions, which was the NFL’s seventh highest total. Sean Payton’s offense provides Sproles with a perfect opportunity to deliver impressive numbers again this season.     

WORST VALUE

Chris Johnson

You knew that he would be listed first didn’t you? His lack of motivation at times was a borderline disgrace, and no other runner came close to matching the level of disappointment that Johnson delivered to fantasy owners who utilized a top six pick to secure him (5.92 ADP). While he managed to finish 14th in rushing, with a somewhat deceptive 1,047 yards, Johnson was allotted the ninth most attempts (262), averaged just 4.0 YPC, and scored only four TDs. For some perspective on just how far his statistics declined from previous seasons, he had averaged 1,533 yards, 4.9 YPC, and 11 TDs from 2008-2010.

Peyton Hillis

Those of you who drafted Hillis had to know that this paragraph was coming. He was the 25^th player selected (14^th RB), based upon the 1,654 total yards and 13 TDs that he generated in 2010. Unfortunately, he missed six games, and finished just 33rd in rushing. The 587 rushing yards that he manufactured, were less than half of his 2010 total, and he scored a paltry three times. While December was his most productive month, that was not enough for exasperated owners who had already been negatively impacted by his unsatisfactory year. Particularly those who had already dropped him.

LeGarrette Blount

In his 2010 rookie season, Blount accumulated 1,007 yards, and scored six TDs in just 13 games. He was projected to be a high end No. 2 in 2011, and was the 15^th RB selected, with a lofty 34 ADP. However, Blount produced more frustration than fantasy points. Not only did he fail to improve his numbers as originally expected, but they actually declined. His 781 rushing yards were just the league’s 24^th highest, and he scored just five TDs. Unless something changes with Tampa Bay’s new coaching staff, Blount’s diminished value will continue. His production will be totally dependent upon what he attains on the ground, because he will usually be jettisoned to the sidelines on passing downs.

Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw was the NFL’s ninth leading rusher in 2010, and his 1,235 yards represented the first excursion above 1,000 in his four-year career. He also generated a 4.5 YPC with his career high 276 carries, which helped compel fantasy owners to select him 16^th among all RBs, with an ADP of 36. But 2011 was a vastly different story. Foot issues sidelined him for four contests, and he completed the year as the NFL’s 27^th best rusher, amassing just 659 yards in 12 contests, with an anemic 3.9 YPC. He did score nine TDs, but owners were hoping for much more.

Ryan Grant

Even though Grant missed 15 games in 2010 with a significant ankle injury, and appeared destined to split carries with James Starks, he was the 24^th back chosen by fantasy owners. That placed him ahead of every back listed in the Best Value section. Unfortunately, he did not bare much resemblance to the runner who gained over 1,200 yards in 2008 and 2009. Grant exceeded 40 rushing yards just once in his first 11 games, and scored just twice, with both TDs being generated in week 14 against Oakland’s wretched rush defense. He concluded a very disappointing season by finishing 40^th in rushing, with 559 yards. There is no reason to include him in your 2012 draft plans.

Best and Worst Fantasy RB Value of 2011 Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Mark Sanchez: Solution or Problem?

If everyone’s a critic, football fans are without question some of the harshest. And quarterbacks are specifically the most heavily critiqued players in the game, and rightfully so. Skill at this position is more important than any other on the field. Sure, a great defense is detrimental to a team’s lasting success. A solid line on either side of the ball is a big deal too. Having productive running backs and receivers never hurts either, and so on and so forth. But for the most part, of all the dynasties this league has ever seen, the quarterback position has been the most crucial in helping produce those perennial champions.

If you’re a Packers fan, you’re most likely not so hard on your current starting quarterback. I mean let’s face it, Aaron Rodgers is quite simply “the man” and that’s all there is to it. There’s not much to critique there. If you follow New Orleans, you’re sitting just as pretty with your guy. You know, old what’s his name, Brees something or other. The fact remains, plenty of teams have reliable quarterbacks, the New York Jets just aren’t one of them.

No, Mark Sanchez isn’t completely lousy. His stats have been getting better each season. This year he set career highs in most major categories. That’s good right? Improvement is always a good thing. But isn’t a (Rex Ryan proclaimed) “top tier” quarterback supposed to have better than a 78.2 QB rating in a season where your team was supposed to have contended for the conference championship? Matt Hasselbeck has better career numbers and had a higher QBR this year, and he’s not considered an elite quarterback, so where does that leave Mark Sanchez? And how about Sanchez’s career (albeit three years young) QB rating of just 73.2, isn’t that a bit low for a “franchise player?” Let’s get real here. The guy only has four more career TD passes than he does picks. Assuming we’re staying the course of what is logical in our judgment of what makes a quarterback “elite”, we could only then assume that Mark Sanchez’s name wouldn’t make it on our lists. Or am I missing something?

Not to attack his character, he seems like a decent enough human being. He doesn’t embarrass himself in post-game interviews or make a bunch of off-the-wall statements that would lead us to question his integrity. His taste in photo shoots on the other hand, now that’s a horse of a different color. Don’t get me started.

But in all seriousness, this isn’t about what he does off the field. Away from the turf, he can do whatever he wants. This is about Mark Sanchez, the “elite” quarterback and how he performs (or lack thereof) between the lines.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t assume playing quarterback in this league is a cakewalk. To be under the constant crosshairs of opposing defenses in this league, as big and fast as they are, that takes some serious courage. So good job to him for having the guts to deal with that every week, you won’t see me doing it anytime soon. But having the guts to play the position is only a small amount of the traits a quality quarterback needs to possess to be successful in this league. Poise, brains, quick thinking, composure, dedication to winning and a strong work ethic are the real meat & potatoes behind what makes a great quarterback in this game. So to say with any kind of accuracy whether or not Sanchez deserves the moniker ‘above average player’ remains to be seen. He confuses us with his up and down play too much to have earned that title just yet.

One thing is certain however, if the J-E-T-S have aspirations of living up to the hype that always seems to surround their organization, they need to step up their game in many facets of play, not just at the quarterback position. To place the blame solely on Sanchez for the Jets missing the playoffs just isn’t fair, nor is it applicable. Consider the cast of characters he has to deal with in that locker room every week. From the top down, there are some serious ego-based problems hindering this team’s success. You know they say dirt rolls downhill. What do you think about that Rex Ryan?

Speaking of good ole Rex, the time for talking has come and gone buddy. When you can put your money where your mouth is and consistently put a contender on the field, then we’ll believe some of what you’ve got to say. Until then, no one wants to hear any more from you about how “elite” Mark Sanchez is. We want Mark to prove it for himself. And no one wants to hear any more about how good your team is. Even a fan with limited football knowledge can tell a good team from a bad one, yet you still insist that you’re one of the best teams in the league? You can call a cubic zirconia a diamond all you want Rex, but it doesn’t make it true. You might be a good salesman, but you aren’t ruining my white gloves by selling me any ketchup popsicles anytime soon. Nice try coach.

So, Mr. Sanchez, we hereby give you another season to prove that you are the quarterback of the future for the Jets. You’ve only been in the league for a few years, and you’ve been on a tough team to play for in a tough city to play in….you get credit for that. But if it’s possible, the time is now to separate yourself from your mediocre cohorts around the league. If you don’t want to leave a legacy of disappointment in New York, I’d suggest you do it quickly. The fans there epitomize impatience and are notoriously unforgiving when it comes to underachieving. Good luck with that sir.

Mark Sanchez: Solution or Problem? Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Week 16 Wide Receivers Rankings

It’s week 16, championship week. You’ve struggled and fought for four months to get this far and now that championship title is within grasp. Congratulations on making it this far.

Now is not the time to over-think things or panic when finalizing your final fantasy lineup. Just continue to do what you’ve done all season and give yourself the best shot at bringing home the title.

Here our the Gridiron Experts wide receiver rankings for championships week. We hope you’ll combine these with our runningback rankings to give yourself the edge you’ll need to win it all. Good luck!

Start ‘Em

Santana Moss- After missing a month of the season due to a broken hand, Moss is heating up at just the right time. He’s scored in two straight games and for championship week, the Redskins play host to a pathetic Minnesota Vikings secondary that has surrendered  an NFL high 31 touchdown passes so far in 2011.

Jordy Nelson- Last week was a rare clunker for Nelson. He was held to two grabs for 29 yards and committed four penalties in the Packers’ first loss of the season. He’s going to be extra motivated to make up for the poor showing. The Packers are approaching this game with the attitude of finishing off the Bears and Nelson has scored eight of his 10 touchdown passes on the season at Lambeau Field.

Brandon Marshall- Marshall is a guy that most likely stays in your lineup almost every week, but this is as good a match-up as they come. The Dolphins are playing well and will travel to Foxborough to play the league’s worst pass defense. Marshall has scored in four of the Dolphins last seven games and the Patriots don’t have anybody who can cover him.

Proceed with caution…

Hakeem Nicks- Both the Jets and Giants are desperate to win this game in front of their home crowds. The Giants have had a banner year throwing the ball, but Nicks will have the unenviable task of matching up with Darelle Revis. It’s unlikely that you can just bench Nicks, but lower you expectations for this week.

Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown- Normally playing host to the Rams would be an excuse to cram as many Steelers into your fantasy lineup as possible. But at this time Ben Roethlisberger looks very questionable to play. If he does suit up, you can expect a heavy dose of Rashard Mendenhall as Pittsburgh tries to keep Big Ben healthy and attack the league’s worst rush defense.

Sit ‘Em

Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas- Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow continues to evolve as a passer as teams try to shut down Denver’s top ranked rushing attack. But a late December trip to Orchard Park’s infamous wintry conditions can challenge even the best passers in the league. Snow and wind are already forecast to be a factor in this game, so it’s likely that the Broncos will heavily focus on reducing turnovers and attacking Buffalo’s 29th ranked run defense.

Anquan Boldin- Boldin has a meniscus injury and had surgery on Thursday. He’s expected to be ready for Baltimore’s first playoff game, but won’t play again in the regular season. He’s safe to drop from your fantasy football squad.

Week 16 Fantasy Player Rankings: Wide Receivers Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Fantasy Football Love’em, Hate’em Week 15

So, how did week 14 treat you? If you played against someone starting Matt Ryan, Maurice Jones-Drew and Rob Gronkowski, I’d bet the farm that it didn’t treat you very well. Now if you were on the glory end of that spirit stick, congratulations, you’re one step closer to looking your buddies in the face and proclaiming your rightful status as “master of the universe.”

Nevertheless, don’t worry – the Gridiron Experts are here to help pave your way to the proverbial fantasy ‘land of Oz’. Maybe there you’ll find the brains to start Tim Tebow, the courage to sit Mike Wallace in place of Antonio Brown or the heart to bench the underachieving Dwayne Bowe (who you so badly want to break out of his shell that is the 2011-2012 season).
“Man, that thing does not like Dwayne.”

Whatever your status heading into week 15, we would like to thank you for allowing the prolific prognosticators here to be your ultimate source of pigskin pick ems and sit ems. Big ups to you, and may you emerge victorious in your league’s playoffs.
And be sure and tell em, “Large Marge sent ya!”
Yes, that was a ‘Pee-Wee’s Big Adventure’ joke. No, we have no shame.

QB Love:

Tim Tebow – the guy just wins. Regardless of the improbability or unexpectedness of his success as the starter in the league, he simply wins. He’s facing a New England pass defense that ranks near the bottom in the league, and that bodes well for Mr. Tebow. The Broncos are on a roll and if they can somehow knock off the mighty Pats, they should without a doubt be the favorites in the AFC West.

Tony Romo – the Cowboys are hungry for a win to stay in the division race. They’ve dropped two in a row and have too much talent going up against a struggling Tampa Bay team to lose a third. I look for Romo to have a big game here.

Matthew Stafford – whether he’s throwing to Calvin Johnson or not, he’s more than capable of finding his second, third, fourth and fifth wide-outs, and finding them with ease. This guy is a young star in the league and has been playing very well this season. Going up against an Oakland pass defense is a good thing as well. Unless I’ve got one of the obvious starters in the league, Stafford is in my starting lineup this week without question. Actually, he could very well be considered one of the obvious starters. We’ll let his play do his talking for him.

Michael Vick – he struggled a bit in his first start back from injury, but that’ll only last so long. Look for him to tear it up this week against the Jets and their over-hyped defense. Vick should have plenty of room to either run or pass for a solid fantasy output.

Sleepers: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Mark Sanchez

QB Hate:

Phillip Rivers – throwing a handful of touchdown passes in his past couple games is nice. It’s what most of the football watching world expected out of this guy for most of the season. But the Ravens are the new ‘purple people eaters’ of the NFL, even without Ray Lewis. Their defense is so solid, I look for Rivers to struggle mightily during this game, especially with Baltimore in the thick of a three team race for the top seed in the conference. Sit him unless you have no choice.

Alex Smith – for similar reasons as Rivers, I’d sit Alex Smith this week. Pittsburgh’s defense is raw and will be gunning for Alex and his receivers all day. Sit him.

Carson Palmer – he’s thrown a ton of picks in his short tenure with Oakland, been dealing with inconsistency in his receiving core and is facing the Lions, who are getting Ndamukong Suh back from his suspension. As long as he can refrain from stomping anyone out in this contest, I’d look for him to be in Palmer’s grill all day long. The Raiders are on a downslide. No reason to risk your chances at a championship by starting this shaky QB this week.

RB Love:

Marshawn Lynch – who doesn’t run well after eating Skittles? I know I do. Marshawn Lynch certainly does. All this guy does is gain yards after initial contact. His legs are beast mode, his work ethic is beast mode and his team is on a roll. Regardless of the matchup, I’m starting Lynch until he proves unworthy of such a role. He’s yet to do that, so start him every week until he does. Beast mode, engaged.

Ryan Matthews – he’s been running like his fantasy owners have been hoping he would have for some time now. Granted he’s facing the Ravens ferocious defense, but the Chargers are playing with playoff hopes still intact. They have a few bright spots on their offense, and their running game hasn’t necessarily been one of them, but even against the mighty Baltimore D, I’d look for one of the Chargers bright spots to shine this week. Ryan Matthews could very well be that bright spot with Phillip Rivers taking a lot of heat.

Michael Bush – similar to Ryan Matthews, he’s facing a defense that will be gunning for his quarterback. Look for the Raiders’ run game to open things up this week with Carson Palmer taking a lot of heat. Bush will have ample opportunities to run wild in this one. I’m starting him this week.

Shonn Greene – he’s put up nearly 60 fantasy points in the past two weeks and is playing against an Eagle team that hasn’t been very good at stopping the run as of late. There’s no telling which Sanchez will show up, so the Jets may need to lean on the recent production that Greene has given them and hope for more of the same this week. He probably won’t put up outstanding fantasy numbers forever, but I look for him to have at least one more high scoring week coming up. This should be the week.

Chris Johnson – he’s back from his slumber. Start him while he’s hot. Nuff said.

Reggie Bush – Buffalo gives up a lot of yards on the ground, and Reggie has been running like the back he used to be. Perhaps that means he’s still that back? Regardless, I’m taking advantage of his recent surge and starting him in what appears to be a favorable matchup.

Sleepers: Willis McGahee, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren Sproles, Steven Jackson

RB Hate:

Rashard Mendenhall – the 49ers just don’t give up anything on the ground. The trend will continue this week with Mendenhall getting smashed all day. Good luck Rashard.

Jonathan Stewart – Houston’s run defense is the real deal. They’ve secured their first playoff berth in team history and have no reason to shut down their run stoppers now. Stewart has been mediocre at best this year, and going up against this matchup, more of the same is sure to materialize.

Ryan Grant – sure he had a great fantasy game last week, but that’s nothing more than a fluke. Green Bay is a passing team as long as they have Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. Even without Greg Jennings in the lineup, Rodgers has plenty of other weapons he can (and will) go to for points through the air. Once the score is racked up and the starters take a rest, Grant will surely be affected by that strategy. He won’t duplicate his performance from last week.

WR Love:

Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz – this tandem has become so dangerous, opposing defenses can no longer afford to post up on either one of them individually. Both guys are constant threats to make big plays and should be started without question. If you have both guys on your roster, I’d even consider starting them together.

A.J. Green – not just a matchup based love goes out to Green this week, he’s also a great receiver. But yes, the Rams do give up a lot of points to opposing wide-outs. Green is a sure start for this week.

Antonio Brown – no longer hiding behind the shadow of Mike Wallace (who is still a number one receiver and must start in any league on any team), Brown has made a legitimate case to be a number one receiver himself. The guy can quite simply make plays. He’s proven it for weeks now and will be a dilemma if you own Wallace as well as Brown. My heart tells me to start Wallace over Brown, but my gut is kind of confused. Either way, Brown is a great start, especially against San Fransisco. Their pass D is the one spot they can be challenged. With Wallace still drawing double coverage, look for Brown to go off.

Marques Colston – not only is Minnesota’s pass defense awful, not only is he the best receiver on the Saints team, not only is Drew Brees ridiculous, but most importantly we say you should start him. Now how can you argue with that?

Sleepers: Dwayne Bowe, Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson, Doug Baldwin

WR Hate:

Pierre Garcon – Tennessee has a pretty good pass defensive scheme and to top it off, Peyton Manning isn’t throwing to him. The Colts are horrible and cannot be trusted to put up any kind of points for your fantasy team. Unless you have absolutely no other choice, go ahead and start him, but when he puts up low numbers, don’t come crying to us. Well you can cry to us, but we will be likely to point and laugh.

Jabar Gaffney – I know the Giants give up a lot of receiving touchdowns. A whole freakin lot actually, but look at their recent matchups: Romo and the Cowboys, Rodgers and the Pack and Brees and the Saints. No wonder they’re giving up a ton of points. BUT, they are in a race to the finish for first place in the division and are going up against the Redskins this week. Rex Grossman is hardly on the level with any of those other stud QB’s, and will likely struggle to find his identity again this week. Gaffney will suffer as a result.

Anquan Boldin – he has struggled this year and is still enough of a threat to draw plenty of attention from opposing defenses. Torrey Smith has emerged as a more realistic threat due to this attention. With Ray Rice running the ball, Boldin has seen his numbers drop off significantly. I expect a low scoring fantasy output from Anquan this week.

TE Love:

Antonio Gates – look for the Chargers to play the small ball game against the Ravens to add a little confusion. I don’t expect Rivers to have a great game downfield, but if he can find Matthews on a few screen passes, and Gates on some short yardage routes that could very well be the key for S.D. to have success against Baltimore. Gates has been looking better and better each week. Despite the matchup, I like Gates this week.

Jake Ballard – playing at home against the Skins is just what the doctor ordered if you’re Jake Ballard. It’s about as favorable of a matchup as he’s going to see for the rest of the year, so if there’s a week to start him, it’s this week. With Nicks and Cruz drawing lots of attention, look for Eli to throw some more balls in Ballard’s direction.

Brandon Pettigrew – he should see plenty of looks with Calvin Johnson drawing lots of double coverage. Detroit’s run game is bruised and uncertain, so look for Stafford to bump up Pettigrew in the ‘receivers to look for’ category.

Owen Daniels – Arian Foster could see less work with Houston clinching a playoff spot, and with an unproven quarterback at the helm, I’d look for Daniels to be targeted more than usual. He should have a decent game this week.

Sleepers: Aaron Hernandez, Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis, Visanthe Shiancoe

TE Hate:

Heath Miller – this is an unfavorable matchup for Miller playing against San Fransisco. With Brown and Wallace becoming so threatening in Pittsburgh’s offense, Miller has seen a drop off in his productivity. He has just two touchdowns all season and hasn’t put up a 10+ point game since week 7.

Jermaine Gresham – I look for Andy Dalton to go downfield this week, particularly to A.J. Green. Gresham isn’t a bad tight end, but the Rams do have one bright spot in their defense and that’s against tight ends. Between Cedric Benson and A.J. Green taking over most of the scoring responsibilities this week, I expect Gresham to have a quiet game.

Anthony Fasano – he’s actually been fairly reliable at the tight end position this year and had a few good games, but with a new coach coming in to call plays, there’s no telling how much of a role Anthony will play. I don’t like this start unless I’m tapped out on options. Not to mention he’s a little banged up. Sit him.

D/ST Love: Eagles, Packers, Bengals, Cowboys, Titans

D/ST Hate: Broncos, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers

So take it from us, we know how important your lineup choices are in week 15. We get it, you just lost Demarco Murray and you’re pissed, it’s okay, we feel your pain. Sure, Aaron Rodgers didn’t score you 517 points last week and you only lost your game by a hair and you’re upset. It’s understandable.

But hey, at the end of the day this is still the sport that is slowly becoming America’s new favorite pastime. Baseball is cool, we’ve got nothing but love for those guys. But this is football, damnit! This is a gut busting, head crushing, finger smashing, helmet cracking, quarterback hunting, bone-breaking, tooth shattering game of modern day barbarians out for the blood of those who dare to oppose, and we love it.

Yes sir, win or lose your league, this game is here to stay. If that’s not reason enough to smile, I don’t know what is.

Thank God for football.

Commence Tebowing.

Fantasy Football Love’em, Hate’em Week 15 Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Week 15 Fantasy Player Rankings: Wide Receivers

Must Starts

Calvin Johnson @OAK- Megatron is in danger of falling off of his perch as the undisputed top wide-out in the game. He’s really cooled off since the torrid start of multiple scores in Detroit’s first four games. There’s no way anybody has good enough options to consider benching Johnson, so he must stay in your lineup. Calvin is due for a huge game, and maybe the Raiders secondary that has given up the third most TD tosses (23) in the NFL is just what he’s been waiting for.

Dwayne Bowe vs. GB- Owners who have suffered through the Todd Haley and Tyler Palko era are about to get handsomely rewarded. New interim head coach Romeo Crennel has indicated that his first order of business will be to install Kyle Orton as his starting QB. That’s great news for Bowe owners, who have waited nine long weeks for him to hit pay-dirt. With an NFL caliber signal-caller and Green Bay’s 31st ranked pass defense in town, there’s a great chance Bowe will make his long awaited return to the end zone.

Percy Harvin vs. NOS- Generally you want to stick with players who are on a nice streak and Harvin is red hot. He’s scored in four straight and is coming off a season high 10 receptions on 15 targets. While Adrian Peterson has been ailing, Harvin has even contributed some nice rushing yardage as an added bonus. A.P. is expected back, but don’t discount the possibility that the Vikings won’t still give Harvin a handful of rushes to keep the Saints off-balance. Even without the potential ground gimmick, New Orleans has been awful against the pass this year and Minnesota will be poised to be passing to play catch-up.

Proceed with caution

Marques Colston @MIN- On paper this is a New Orleans blow out, so you’d obviously want to plug their top wide-out into your lineup. But the Saints often struggle on the road, and their offense is so multi-faceted that it is difficult to expect consistent fantasy production from anyone other than Drew Brees. Colston is coming off a big, two TD performance last week, but this week those scores could easily go to a healthy Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore or even Robert Meachem. Overall we like Colston in this game, but temper your expectations.

DeSean Jackson vs. NYJ- Michael Vick’s return to the starting lineup paid immediate dividends for Jackson last week when found the end zone for the first time since week five. Enter Revis Island. It’s still not know how healthy Jeremy Maclin is, but if he misses all or part of this contest, DeSean could be matched up with extraordinary Jets cornerback Darrell Revis. If that indeed happens, Jackson will be lucky to even accumulate 5o receiving yards and will be highly unlikely to score.

Steve Smith @HOU- Smith hit 100+ receiving yards last week for the first time since week eight, but he’ll find the going much more difficult for this game. The Texans are third in the NFL defending the pass and Smith will likely be matched up with shut-down corner Jonathan Joseph.

Sit ‘em

Malcolm Floyd vs. BAL- Floyd had a big game two weeks ago versus the Jags, but that was more a result of blown coverages by Jacksonville’s second team secondary than anything spectacular Floyd did. He only received four targets in that game (catching all four) and followed that up with a stinker last week against an average Bills secondary. Since he missed a month with an injured hip, Floyd has been surpassed on the Chargers’ pecking order by a healthy Antonio Gates and rookie Vincent Brown. An even bigger problem this week will be matching up with a Baltimore Ravens defense that has only surrendered nine touchdown passes this season.

Laurent Robinson @TB- Normally you’d never advocate benching somebody as hot as Robinson has been for half a season; in fact, Robinson might be better placed as a “proceed with caution” player. But there are some things working to slow down his momentum. First, he’s nursing a bum shoulder that has limited his practice time all week. Secondly, Miles Austin is healthy and starting. Finally, the Bucs are so pathetic against the run, that we can expect the Cowboys to exploit that weakness with a healthy dose of Felix Jones. If Dallas is successful on the ground, they’ll utilize less three-receiver formations, meaning Robinson could spend a lot of time standing on the sidelines.

Week 15 Fantasy Player Rankings: Wide Receivers Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Short Week RB Workhorses

Did you hear that Maurice Jones-Drew is sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber to help prepare his body for two games in five days? That’s hardcore! I couldn’t imagine the abuse that two NFL games could do to the body.

I hate Thursday games, with a passion. This time of year moving guys around in your fantasy line-up is as easy as two clicks on your iPhone, but in in reality it means that NFL workhorses like Jones-Drew and Michael Turner are going to either put up average fantasy performances from the short week, or have a let down that will hurt our chances in the fantasy Playoffs.

I don’t want to scare anyone away from starting either of these RB’s, yet if for some reason you have a loaded bench of RB talent, you may want to give this weeks game a second thought. Phil Clark seems to think that we should expect solid performances from each ball carrier in his RB rankings, he’s probably right, but I’m on the fence… at least with Michael Turner.

We all know Jones-Drew is the entire offense for the Jaguars, and even if he can deliver half of last week’s performance Thursday, you will be jumping for joy.

Michael Turner is a different story.

Jamie Dukes on NFL network was very convinced that Turner would have a solid game against the Panthers even on the road. He had said that with enough carries the Falcons would no doubt win the game and have a great winning record when Turner gets a heavy dose of the ball. Yet at half time, Atlanta was losing 23-7, mainly from not being able to establish a ground attack against one of the leagues easier rushing defense’s. In the 3rd quarter, Matty Ice took to the air and won the game in glorious come-from-behind fashion. Matty Ryan’s red zone ego is frustrating for Turner owners, but now with that added confidence of being able to move the ball through the air, (which was what we all thought this team was built for last summer) I’m starting to think Atlanta will lean more and more on the pass in the coming weeks.

Michael Turner could easily be burning out. Both MJD and Turner are leading the NFL in carries and both are about to be forced into a rushed Thursday night game. While some RB’s that have played on a short week have been able to deliver decent-to-good fantasy points, no team has given their all purpose RB close to their respected workload they are use to getting. Looking back, most running backs have been given as much as 10 less carries to counteract the time frame.

Regardless of the match-up, injury status and or home vs. away surroundings, I could see Jones-Drew barley cracking the 100 yard mark with a score. Michael Turner may make me eat my words, but I predict a modest performance which churns out 50 yards with the chance of a pity punch-in goal line touchdown. I could be wrong, but I just want to help anyone with fantasy line-up options.

Fantasy Dilemma: RB Workhorses on a Short Week Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Fantasy Running Back Ranking Report: Week 15

Congratulations to those of you who have qualified for the fantasy playoffs, or have already moved beyond the first round. Months of research and dedication have paid dividends, and you should enjoy your accomplishment, while you continue to diligently manage your team.

If you own any of the elite backs that are unquestioned must starts, this column will not reiterate what you already know, with glowing accounts regarding their explosive ability. You really don’t need reassurance about starting Arian Foster against Carolina, but you might have a question about starting Rashard Mendenhall against the 49ers. However, all matchups are important – good or bad – and will not be totally ignored either. Still, there will be more detail provided about the backs that are most likely to create indecisiveness. And hopefully, you will finish reading this having secured the solutions that you need.

Below, you will find comprehensive fantasy rankings of the top 40 running backs for this week’s games. Plus, some commentary to assist you with your lineup dilemmas. As of this writing, Adrian Peterson’s status is still in question. He is being ranked as if he will be lining up as a starter for Minnesota against the Saints. If he is ultimately forced to miss that contest, Toby Gerhart would vault into the top 25, and become a viable No. 2.

As you consider your matchups, and monitor injuries, weather conditions and other factors, remember that the Jaguars and Falcons are involved in the Thursday night game. Owners should make sure that Maurice Jones-Drew and Michael Turner, are safely inserted into their lineups before the early kickoff.

With that, let’s progress to a detailed look at which running backs you should depend upon, to help maximize the chances of winning your fantasy matchups in week 15.

DEFINITE STARTS

Cedric Benson
Until week 14, Benson had exhibited that he was ineffective against formidable defenses. And even though he revised that script somewhat by manufacturing 91 yards against Houston’s normally stingy run defenders, 42 of those occurred on one play. But he has displayed great consistency, with his track record of success versus hospitable rush defenses. In two games against Cleveland, Benson averaged 114 YPG and scored twice. And he also generated 104 yards versus Buffalo. It really has become tremendously simple to determine which games that he should be in your lineups, and this is the perfect time. The Rams have fielded the league’s worst rush defense throughout the regular season, and anyone who starts Benson will collect a sizable number of fantasy points.

Reggie Bush
Bush continues to be a very proficient feature back for Miami, and a consistent point producer for fantasy owners. Two of his three 100-yard rushing performances have taken place in the past two weeks. And since week 7, he has rushed for 538 yards (77 YPG), and scored five TDs. He has also established a new career high with 770 yards, and should rip Buffalo’s 25th ranked rush defense on Sunday. The Bills have allowed a whopping 158.3 YPG in their past three games, missed being included with the Best Matchups that are listed above.

Shonn Greene
The Jets have maintained their commitment to the running game, and toward employing Greene as their primary back. He has captured 20+ carries in five different games, including the 24 that he garnered against Kansas City. Greene will be allowed sufficient opportunities to pound the same Eagle defense that withered at the challenge of tackling Marshawn Lynch in week 13, and yielded 103 yards to Bush last Sunday. He will enter the game with sizable momentum, having established a new season highs in rushing yards (129) and total yards (187) in week 14. Plus, four of his six TDs just occurred in the past two games, and he could easily provide another score in this matchup.

Chris Johnson
So now what should Johnson’s owners do? He had generated 486 yards and three TDs in the four games heading into week 14, then proceeded to deliver just 23 yards on 11 attempts against New Orleans. While it was the fifth time that he has failed to reach 25 yards this season, it was also just the second time since week 7. While his production has been highly unpredictable, it is not recommended that you bench him during his enticing rematch with the Colts’ 30th ranked run defenders. Indianapolis has allowed the second highest number of rushing TDs (18), and even though they held Johnson to 34 yards in week 8, it is highly doubtful that he will be contained again.

START THEM, BUT…

Steven Jackson
Even though you invested a high draft selection in Jackson, you should examine his recent production closely while considering your options. His 139 YPG in weeks 8-10 is a distant memory, as he has averaged just 47 YPG in his last four games. His TD against Seattle, was the first since week 8, and came after an extremely disturbingly series of plays near the goal line. The Rams attempted multiple passes, and also employed Cadillac Williams, before finally entrusting Jackson. While he did collect 60 receiving yards, that was easily his season high, and is not something that you can rely on. He is a victim of the Rams’ multiple deficiencies on offense, as opposing defenses can focus their attention on containing him, until a large deficit forces St. Louis to pass. The same scenario could easily occur against Cincinnati’s seventh ranked rush defense.

LeGarrette Blount
Blount rebounded from his paltry 19-yard rushing performance in week 13, to register 74 yards in week 14. While he also scored his fifth TD of the season, he did fumble twice. But despite the blend of encouraging and unfavorable developments, neither Mossis Madu nor Kregg Lumpkin represent a legitimate threat to his workload. However, a huge deficit certainly would, and it is highly possible that the Buccaneers will find themselves trailing Dallas by a considerable margin. That would not bode well for Blount, who has exceeded two receptions in only one game this season, and is jettisoned to the sidelines on passing downs with far too much frequency. It is also doubtful that he will amass significant yardage against the NFL’s eighth ranked rush defense.

Jonathan Stewart
The weekly guessing game involving how often Stewart and teammate DeAngelo Williams will be utilized continues to create a massive challenge for fantasy owners. Stewart was allotted 12 touches against the Falcons in week 14, compared to the eight that were garnered by Williams. But, Stewart failed miserably to take advantage of his opportunities, managing just rushing 29 yards. Worse, he dropped multiple passes, and only collected 27 receiving yards. Since he has been held to less than 50 rushing yards in eight different games, and is facing the fourth ranked Texans’ rush defense, the only reason to start him, is if you believe that he will generate a sufficient number of yardage as a target for Cam Newton.

BEST WAIVER WIRE ADDITIONS

Felix Jones
After DeMarco Murray departed Dallas’ week 14 contest with a broken ankle, Jones amassed 106 yards on attempts. It was just the second time that he has surpassed 100 yards this season, and the first time since week 3. But with Murray now unavailable, there is no question that Jones will now be the Cowboys’ feature back, and will capture a significant workload because of it. And that will occur just in time for an exceptional matchup with Tampa Bay’s 28th ranked rush defense. Not only are the Buccaneers allowing 160.3 YPG in their past three games, but they have been gashed for a league worst 19 TDs. Jones should add his name to the assortment of backs who have tortured this unit. Secure him for your roster, and watch him reward you with fantasy points.

Ryan Grant
He is only being listed here because your alternative waiver wire options are almost assuredly meager at best. Anyone who peruses the statistics, and did not witness his 85-yard, two TD performance against the Raiders might believe that he has suddenly rediscovered his burst. He has not. But, he did an excellent job of exploiting poor tackling, and an undisciplined style that Oakland delivered in week 14. If the Chiefs display the same combination of faulty rush defense on Sunday, then Grant could supply you with adequate numbers. But only if Starks is unavailable once again.

Chris Ivory
His value is completely dependent upon Mark Ingram’s status, just as has been the case throughout the season. Ivory has participated in just three games, and they have been the only contests in which Ingram has been sidelined. While he only carried six times for 18 yards in his week 8 season debut, Ivory was allotted 14 APG in the last two, and averaged 60 YPG. It is reasonable to believe that his workload and production would be consistent with those more recent numbers, if Ingram is forced to miss Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. While the ninth ranked Viking rush defense is formidable, an active Ivory could still be utilized by fantasy owners who are in need of an emergency replacement.

AVOID IF YOU CAN

Rashard Mendenhall
Yes, I know… you exercised patience during his weeks of low productivity, then he began to deliver, and helped get you this far into the playoffs. But even though his output has improved in recent weeks, he has exceeded 70 yards just twice all season, and one of those just occurred against the pitiful Browns. This week, he is attempting to navigate through the league’s premier rush defense. The Niners have not allowed any runner to reach 100 yards in their last 28 games, and still have yet to permit a TD this season. There is simply too much risk in relying on Mendenhall to somehow find success against a unit that has contained every other rusher throughout the season. You need to look elsewhere for your RBs this week.

Ahmad Bradshaw
Those of you who started Ahmad Bradshaw in week 14, first had to endure the shock of learning that he would begin the game as a spectator for disciplinary reasons, then watched in horror as he produced a season low 12 yards. If you managed to survived his dreadful night, congratulations. But even though it’s unlikely that his playing time will once again be reduced for punitive purposes, there is another reason for concern. Brandon Jacobs was far more impressive than Bradshaw in Dallas, thrashing the Cowboys for 101 yards and two TDs. He will pilfer a sizable percentage of carries against the Redskins, because Bradshaw has not run effectively since returning from his foot injury. Make him prove that he can, before you use him.

Peyton Hillis
Since his long awaited return in week 12, Hillis’ workload has steadily decreased from 19 carries to 12, to only 10 against the Steelers. And his yardage totals have responded correspondingly, from 65, to 45, to 25. Not exactly the direction that fantasy owners would prefer to see, heading into Sunday’s matchup with a steadily improving Arizona rush defense. The Cardinals were just 26th against the run through seven weeks, but have since improved to 19th, while allowing just 83.6 YPG in the last three games. The combination of Hillis’ propensity for injuries, the potential for Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya to steal carries, and a suddenly stingy opponent; should provide a sufficient number of reasons to stay away.

DO NOT START

C. J. Spiller
He had performed increasingly well entering week 14, amassing 138 yards on 33 attempts in his previous two games. But he could only assemble 46 yards against the Chargers, who had been permitting 131.7 YPG entering the contest. He did only receive 12 carries, as the Bills eventually trailed by a considerable margin. But he will be lining up against a far more formidable opponent this Sunday, and will ultimately struggle. No rush defense has been stingier than Miami in recent weeks, and the third ranked run stuffers have allowed just five TDs all season. He does not figure to generate much success as a target for Matt Moore or J.P. Losman either. This is simply not a good week to rely on Spiller.

DeAngelo Williams
Williams has generated 85+ rushing yards in two different games this season, including the 87 that he amassed against Atlanta. But in both contests, his total was achieved because he exploded for one lengthy run. In week 5, it was a 69-yard burst, while he delivered a 74-yard scamper versus the Falcons. That is the only way in which he can assemble a reasonable yardage total, because he is allotted a meager workload (9.7 APG). When you combine his limited potential for significant yardage, with the fact that he is losing goal line touches to both Stewart and Newton, it is clear that you should search elsewhere.

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Fantasy Match-ups with 4th quarter Back-ups

The Green Bay Packers are 13-0 and for the moment chasing perfection. But a loss or another Greg Jennings-style injury could force Mike McCarthy and co. to be conservative down the stretch and rest their top starters.

While that would only make sense for a team built to make a deep playoff run this year, that golden logic is still a thorn in your fantasy football team’s side. Or at least it might be.

Call me crazy, but I believe Clay Matthews, Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, and Mike McCarthy when they allude to “going for” perfection. The Packers clearly have winning a Super Bowl at the top of their “to do” list, but this is not a team that is about to shy away from greatness that comes across a team so rarely.

Green Bay has nothing left to play for except perfection for the final three weeks, but if they start sitting guys now, they risk being rusty when the games actually count. Look for them to go for 16-0, but once/if they do lose their first game of the year, bank on them sitting their starters immediately after.

As for the other potential NFL playoff teams out there, here’s a quick look and a verdict:

New England Patriots (10-3)

• Even though Wes Welker went down two years ago, you know Bill Belichick doesn’t sit his guys. Besides, with three other 10-3 teams, you know the Patriots are going to play all the way through until the regular season is over.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)

• As soon as the division is wrapped up/decided, you can start banking on the Steelers resting some of their guys. The main one is Ben Roethlisberger, who has an ankle injury and is questionable for week 15.

Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

• Same deal here, as the Ravens are likely to rest Ray Rice down the stretch, as soon as their division is decided. If so, Ricky Williams should be the cow bell and could be a worth-while add for a fantasy playoff run.

Houston Texans (10-3)

• This is the team I’m most worried about in the AFC. They’ve clinched their division and a playoff spot, and they’ve experienced enough injuries throughout the year to make you think they’ll rest most of their guys. Andre Johnson is a risky play for the next three weeks, while Arian Foster should be seeing a lighter load with each passing week to end the regular season.

New Orleans Saints (10-3)

• I’m not overly worried about the Saints resting their guys. They’ll probably keep Mark Ingram off the field as much as possible, but Drew Brees is going for Dan Marinos’ yardage record, and I don’t see Sean Payton keeping him from getting it. Besides, the Saints haven’t clinched the NFC South yet, so they have good reason to keep their starters in.

San Francisco 49ers (10-3)

• The 49ers are riding a two-game losing streak and it could become three against the Steelers in week 15. They may want to go out on a high note in the final two weeks if they lose again. However, they’ve already locked down their division, so I’d expect them to take it easy on a less than 100% Frank Gore.

All other teams not mentioned have seeding, their division, or a playoff spot in general to fight for, so it would make no sense for their teams to sit their top players. The key is to stray away from playoff-bound fantasy options that are not 100% healthy. If their teams know they’re in the big dance, they’ll be less likely to force them onto the field.

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Fantasy Football Advice: Great Match-ups vs. Elite Performers

It’s game time! You have earned yourself a chance to shut up the league of know-it-all’s and battle against rivals and or the elite players in your fantasy pool. If you have compiled a fantasy team that requires no thinking, then this article really doesn’t apply to you….or does it? You see, I came first in the Gridiron Experts fantasy pool this season, or should I say I’m entering the playoffs as the 1st seed. Overall I’m the team to beat, but as an owner I’m stressed to go against what has been working versus what looks good this Sunday. My opponent DC, who had a bit of a meltdown in the second half of the fantasy season with Darren McFadden and Adrian Peterson, is no better off from injuries, but is in a better to position to start players based on match-ups than I from habit of success.

Tips Based on Seeds

Elite Fantasy Teams

Have you really looked at your fantasy team this week? Or are you just starting the same players that have gotten you the prestigious record that earned you a top spot in the regular season? This is a new league, one that has a one-and-done outcome. You win you advance, you lose and we’ll see you next summer. The problem with being an elite regular season fantasy team is you are complacent in making changes based on line-ups or injuries. I encourage a real honest look at your line-up Sunday morning. Are you starting the “sexy-players” or the best players that can you win you your fantasy match-up?

Middle of Pack

Malcolm in the Middle is a group of great teams that have either slipped in the fantasy standings from unpredictable injuries, or have made a late season surge to a respected spot. You are the most lethal with line-ups; you have adjusted, adapted, even gambled with players all season to get you to the spot you’re in. My advice is go with your gut. You have gotten this far on making calls on the fly, don’t change what has been working. Ask yourself  what would work better: safe points from “X” or all or nothing points from a wild-card hot match-up? You are the best judge for your team, but if you need a little help check out our Fantasy Statical Breakdown for Week 14

Just Made The Playoffs

What have you got to lose? If you are the 8th or even 7th seed you can gamble with great match-ups guilt free. Don’t go crazy with line-up decisions, but if you are facing a tough opponent you will need to get a little lucky to pull out a win. I suggest checking out our stat article, while also reading our deep sleeper article for this up coming fantasy week.

Overall, I wish you all the best of luck (except DC, my opponent for this week… you can suck it!)

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