Week 14 Fantasy Player Rankings: Wide Receivers

For most of us, the fantasy post-season is upon us. It’s do or die, now or never, sink or swim and all of those other tired cliches. The bottom line is that you fought and struggled for 13 long weeks to make the play-offs and you’re not about to lose now. You have to give yourself the very best chance at winning, because there is no tomorrow for the losers.

Rather than present a small top 20 list for each position, we’re going the extra mile and going more in-depth for each position. We hope you combine these wide receiver rankings with our runningback rankings for a winning lineup this week.

1. Calvin Johnson vs. MIN- Megatron has certainly cooled off after starting the season of with two scores in each of Detroit’s first four games, but he remains the most dominant, physical force at the position. His target numbers have remained consistent and week 14 brings a fantastic match-up. The Vikings are the NFL’s 26th ranked pass defense and their secondary doesn’t have anybody who can contain Johnson. Minnesota has also surrendered a league high 24 touchdown passes, so it’s a near lock that Johnson will hit pay dirt.

2. Greg Jennings vs. OAK- When you’re the top target of the most dangerous offense in the NFL, you’re always going to be an elite fantasy option. It’s been a while since Jennings has cracked the century mark, but his touchdown numbers have remained consistent. As long as the Packers have something to play for, even if it’s an unblemished 16-0 record, they’re going to continue to play their stars. For week 14, Green Bay hosts an Oakland Raiders defense that has given up more passing scores than all but five teams, and Jennings is due for a break-out 100+ yard day.

3. Hakeem Nicks @ DAL- The Giants are playing for their very playoff lives against the hated NFC East leading Dallas Cowboys. Nicks has a tremendous history in this rivalry, scoring three times in three career contests. New York has turned into a pass-first team, and Nicks will remain the biggest target in their attack.

4. Dez Bryant vs. NYG- Laurent Robinson has become a big part of the Cowboys passing attack, and Miles Austin is due to return, but Dez Bryant has become a bigger part of the offense when the team is in the red zone. He’s scored in three of four games and is coming off of a game where he received 14 targets against a pretty good cornerback. Bryant has failed to reach 100 yards in a game all season but remains a top scoring threat in a bitter rivalry.

5. Vincent Jackson vs. BUF-  San Diego’s struggles are keeping quiet the fact that Jackson is on pace to set career high numbers in both receiving yards and touchdowns. He’s also had some huge multiple-score games this season. As long as the Chargers have a playoff pulse, they’ll continue to feature Jackson as their top big-play threat.

6. Wes Welker @WAS- Interestingly, Welker has scored seven of his eight touchdowns this season on the road. As luck would have it, the Patriots take their red-hot offense on the road to the nation’s capital this week. Not only has Welker already tied a career high with eight touchdowns, he’s leading the NFL in receptions and yardage by a wide margin. He’s an elite wide-out and the top choice in PPR formats.

7. Percy Harvin @DET- After seeing what Harvin has done in the last three games, one has to wonder why it took an injury to Adrian Peterson for the Vikings to utilize their best receiver. As he’s become a bigger part of the offense, his receiving yardage has climbed in each of those contests and he’s scored four times. AP is looking very iffy for next week, so Harvin should remain the offense’s focal point, and even chip in about five rushes.

8. Victor Cruz @DAL- Hakeem Nicks isn’t the only New York wide-out that is an outstanding fantasy option. Cruz has eclipsed 100+ yards in three straight contests and has 9+ targets in the last six. He’s leading the Giants in catches, yards and touchdowns. As long as Mario Manningham remains out, Cruz will stay in the Giants starting lineup and should continue to put up excellent fantasy statistics.

9. Santana Moss vs. NEP- After missing a month, Moss is rounding back into shape just in time for a match-up with the NFL’s leakiest secondary. Coming off of a game with a dozen targets, it clear that Moss will be the focal point of the Redskins passing attack going forward. With Washington likely to fall behind the Patriots, there’s an excellent chance that Moss can get some nice production this week, even if it is in garbage time.

10. Brandon Marshall vs. PHI- As the Dolphins have dramatically improved over the last month, so has Brandon Marshall’s fantasy stock. Since week nine, he’s surpassed 98 yards receiving three times and has hit pay-dirt twice. Miami will host a Philadelphia Eagles team that has struggled on defense all year, and appears to have begun making vacation plans.

11. Mike Wallace vs. CLE

12. Jordy Nelson vs. OAK

13. Larry Fitzgerald vs. SF

14. Roddy White @CAR

15. Steve Johnson @SD

16. Steve Smith vs. ATL

17. Anquan Boldin vs. IND

18. Michael Crabtree @ARZ

19. A.J. Green vs. HOU

20. Marques Colston @TEN

21. Jabar Gaffney vs. NE

22. DeSean Jackson @MIA

23. Laurent Robinson vs. NYG -watch the health and status of Miles Austin

24. Torrey Smith vs. IND

25. Deion Branch @WAS

26. Julio Jones @CAR

27. Malcolm Floyd vs. BUF

28. Santonio Homes vs. KC

29. Dwayne Bowe @NYJ

30. Nate Washington vs. NOS

31. David Nelson @SD

32. Lance Moore @TEN

33. Plaxico Burress vs. KC

34. Brandon Lloyd @SEA

35. Damian Williams vs. NOS

36. Mike Williams @JAX

37. D. Heyward-Bey @GB

38. Jeremy Maclin @MIA – has been practicing, looks like he’ll play

39. Antonio Brown vs. CLE

40. Reggie Wayne @BAL

41. Miles Austin vs. DAL- check injury reports later in the week

42. Pierre Garcon @BAL

43. Eric Decker vs. CHI

44. Greg Little @ PIT

45. Nate Burleson vs. DET

46. Golden Tate vs. STL

47. Davone Bess vs. PHI

48. Steve Breaston @NYJ

49. Hines Ward vs. Cle

50. Jacoby Jones @CIN

51. Doug Baldwin vs. STL

52. Early Doucet vs. SF

53. Titus Young vs. MIN

54. Robert Meachem @ TEN

55. Jason Avant @MIA

56. Kevin Walter @CIN

57. Jacoby Ford @GBP

58. James Jones vs. OAK

59. Devin Aromashodu @DET

60. Demaryus Thomas vs. CHI

Week 14 Fantasy Player Rankings: Wide Receivers Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Sunday Night Showdown: Big D in the Eagles Nest

The NFC East is one of the most dominant divisions in the NFL. Comprised of the Giants, Redskins, and this week’s primetime match-up the Cowboys and the Eagles; these four teams are some of the toughest to play. But surprisingly enough, this division has fallen off the wagon this year. The Giants are the only team in the division with a winning record, while Dallas has struggled to get back to their roots and the Eagles haven’t played up to their “dynasty” potential. Sunday night, football fans finally get a game worth watching as both Dallas and Philadelphia are looking for a big win, especially against a rival. Tony Romo has been hot and cold this year in games, while Michael Vick has had trouble living up to expectations. Philly is out to prove they made the right move in giving Vick a huge contract, while Dallas is ready to show the world what they’re made of. Here’s what’s in store for the showdown at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday night.

Defending their home field and coming off a rout of the Rams, the Cowboys bumped themselves to .500 last week. Rookie DeMarco Murray stood out amongst the pack as he ran over St. Louis for two hundred and fifty-three yards rushing. The Rams aren’t what they were last year, but Dallas still proved that they have some heavy artillery. Tony Romo is key for the Boys and needs to limit the interceptions, especially in primetime, since he always seems to catch “interception-itis” in big games. No doubt Big D’s defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will have a few surprises up his sleeve for Mike Vick and the offense as they continue to show how dominant they are, ranking in the top ten this year. This week, Dallas will have to look to the offense to put some points on the board. Jason Garrett and the rest of the coaching staff need to emphasize how much trust they have in Romo. He’s been a solid player this year, but hearing that he has the support of his teammates and coaches will give him more likely a reason to perform greater. Which Tony Romo will show up on Sunday? Who knows, but if Dallas’ run game can get going, then they could be unstoppable.

This is probably the Cowboys biggest game to date this season. This match-up could show whether or not they are contenders or pretenders, but nonetheless, Dallas better be prepared for a well rested Eagles squad. The Cowboys need to utilize their offensive threats in Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. It is still unclear if DeMarco Murray is starting or not, but well see what Garrett’s decision is when it gets closer to game time. Even with Murray’s all-star performance last week, he may be the only choice to place in the backfield due to Felix Jones and Tashard Choice injuries.

Andy Reid’s Eagles are a different story. This season, with the highly anticipated and astronomical contract of Michael Vick, the signing of over 10 free agents including Vince Young and Nnamdi Asomugha, while trading for Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and Andy Reid along for the ride in his thirteenth year as head coach, the Eagles looked prime for the top seed in the NFC East. But, circumstances have been wildly different than anticipated. The Eagles got off to rough start this season beginning at a measly 1-4. Then with a much- needed win over division rival Washington, the Eagles headed into their bye week at 2-4. The game this weekend is important on a number of different levels for the Eagles, namely because this could be a prime opportunity for them to get back into the division race.

With so much power and talent, the Eagles need to take this upcoming game seriously. The offense needs to stay productive and help Michael Vick, especially the wide receivers by getting separation, while the O-line needs to be a little more protective of their dynasty QB. But even so, Vick doesn’t have a problem taking off and running. I’m just under the impression that Reid prefers Vick to stay in the pocket and make a play, rather than use his agile feet. Moreover, the Eagles defense, with all their star power and the deep threats of Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha, they have to step up and play better. Too many times this season the Eagles have given up big plays that have cost them the game. If the Eagles can find a way to get to Romo early, they could be setting themselves up for a win.

The Eagles need to find a way to keep the pressure off of Vick, especially against one of the most aggressive pass rushers in the game in DeMarcus Ware. He has eight sacks this season and Philly’s O-Line has had trouble matching up against defenders this season. Keeping the pressure off of Vick will surely give them a better chance of winning. Andy Reid will have to emphasize the importance of ball control and staying cool under pressure to his players. This is an important game for Reid as well, considering he is one of the most advanced thinkers in the game, but has recently gone stale. Reid is out to prove he’s still the genius in Philadelphia. This is a prime opportunity to get his “dream team” back on track.

All in all, this is the first Sunday night match-up all year that may actually be interesting to watch. Both the Cowboys and Eagles have good teams this year, but are still tinkering with the kinks on both sides of the ball. I have no doubt that when both teams fix those problems; they have the potential to be dynamic and dangerous football teams. Sunday night is football night and yet we couldn’t have asked for a better match-up. Well have to wait and see if Big D can come out of the Eagles nest alive.

Eagles Betting Trends
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Andy Reid is 12-0 of a bye

Cowboys Betting Trends
Dallas is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas’s last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas’s last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas’s last 9 games on the road

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Outplay Formula Week 8

There was no Outplay Formula created for week 7, Gridiron Experts didn’t think it was needed. Most of the games looked like absolute blowouts and fantasy/ pick’em advice with stats seemed redundant. For the most part that was true, but there were a few blue moons that surprised us all, namely the Jaguars on Monday Night.

For those who are new to the Outplay Formula scroll to the bottom for info or download this .PDF info pack

 Week 8 Outplay Formula

How To Read The Out Play

***Please note the Outplay is a helpful guide, obvious Fantasy starts and sits should not be overlooked***
The idea behind the outplay formula is that a team or player could be performing better or worse than we might think, based on the opponents they’ve gone up against.The Outplay has been created for the following for each team:

• Overall Outplay Production- A combination of the teams PPG on offense and defense in comparison to all the opponents they have faced. This is used to help pick winners.
• Offensive Passing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams passing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Defensive Passing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams defensive passing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Offensive Rushing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams rushing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
• Defensive Rushing Outplay- Compares the amount of a teams defensive rushing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.

The math behind the formula is a bit confusing, but basically you take a teams points per game average on offense and defense and compare it to all of its opponents offensive and defensive PPG. Lets say, for example, DEN is averaging 21 PPG on offense, and has played 5 teams that are allowing an average of only 14 PPG on defense. That means that offensively, DEN is “outplaying” their opponents by 7 PPG. The same principle is applied to defensive points allowed per game and rushing and passing yards per game.

*The best example I can give you is from week 7 of the 2007 season: Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Buffalo Bills (1-4)

Baltimore was a 3.5 point favorite, and based on their record many believed that 3.5 points was a steal. Looking back, we now know that Buffalo was a team that made a late season run, while Baltimore fell apart by mid-season. If you looked at BAL’s opponents up until that point it was a walk in the park. BAL had 4 wins from ARZ / STL / SF / NYJ. However, BAL had a shoot-out with ARZ, and could only put up 9 points against the 49er’s in a 9-7 win. Meanwhile, Buffalo had 4 losses to NE / DAL / PIT / DEN. Even though BUF lost these games, they were able to put up decent outplay numbers both offensively and defensively against these tough opponents. Although the schedule could have been different, it was how well each team had performed that the outplay noticed. BAL was struggling against weak teams, and BUF was playing well against strong teams. Due to our outplay formula, we had Buffalo favored by 2 for this week. The final outcome:

BUF 19 BAL 14!

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NFL Week 5 Outplay Formula

Alright, here we go again! The second installment of what seemed to be a very popular new stat cheat sheet offered by Gridiron Experts. I apologize if the Outplay formula was a little confusing last week, so I have upped the info on how to use this NFL Weekly Stat breakdown.

First What is the Outplay?

The Outplay is a statical breakdown of how well a team is performing in comparison to all the other teams that have faced the same opponents. For example:  If the Chicago Brear’s after 5 weeks are averaging 100 rushing yards a game, you would think they have a fairly average rushing offense. But if every other opponent that has faced those same 5 teams only averaged 70 rushing yards a game, then in fact the Bears are “Outplaying” their opponents by 30 yards.

A.) Overall Outplay- A combination of the teams PPG on offense and defense in comparison to all the opponents they have faced. This is used to help pick winners against the spread
B.) Team Offensive Points Per game Average
C.) Offensive 3rd Down percentage.
D.) Defensive 3rd Down percentage.
E.) Rushing Yards Per Game Average
F.) Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game Average
G.) Turnover Differential
H.) Team Points Per game Average
I.) Total Offensive Passing Touchdowns to date
J.) Total Defensive Passing Touchdowns Allowed
K.) Total Offensive Rushing Touchdowns to date
L.) Total Defensive Rushing Touchdowns to date
M.) Average Rushing Yards Per Game
N.) Average Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed
O.) Rushing Offensive Outplay: This number relates to the amount of rushing yards a team is either over performing or under performing the average of what opponents are allowing per game. A high positive number means they have been playing well above what defenses are normally allowing against the run, a negative number means they should be able to do more.
P.) Defensive Rushing Outplay: This number relates to the amount of defensive rushing yards a team is allowing. They are either over or under the average what opponents are able to rush for. A high positive number means a team has been playing weak rushing defense, I low number means they are shutting down the rushing offenses.
Q.) Average Passing Yards Per Game
R.) Average Defensive Passing Yards Per Game Allowed
S.) Passing Offensive Outplay: This number relates to the amount of passing yards a team is either over performing or under performing the average of what opponents are allowing per game. A high positive number means a team has been playing well above what defenses are normally allowing against the pass, a negative number means they should be able to do more.
T.) Defensive Passing Outplay: This number relates to the amount of defensive passing yards a team is allowing. They are either over or under the average what opponents are able to throw for. A high positive number means they have a weak passing defense, I low number means they are shutting down the passing teams.

Week 5 Outplay

Interesting Fantasy Stats the last week of this (Beta Version) for the Outplay

• Both the Bengals and Jaguars passing defense’s are outplaying their opponents. Could be a very low scoring affair.
• The Raiders have an amazing 64.4 Outplay rushing average. The Texans on the other hand have been somewhat successful defensively against the pass. Despite the 214 passing yard average they have been giving up, they are outplaying their opponents by 42 yards. The Texans will likely load the box and try to slow down the Raiders run game.
• The Titans are playing excellent on offense, passing beyond opponents average by 52.7 yards, but are about to face one of the more difficult defenses in the league. Even with the injuries to Ben Roethlisber, this should be a close game and maybe not one you want to start Matt Hasslebeck in.
• Drew Brees will do what he does best, but when the Saints test the Panthers rushing defense, they may be pleasantly surprised. The Panthers are allowing 144 yards per game but are even worse than that average is leading on. Teams are able to move the ball on the ground against the Panthers, Start Mark Ingram, Sleeper PT Cruiser even D.Sproles
• Cam Newton is an easy start, but if you are on the fence with him an another option forget the coin flip and just start the rookie. The Saints are being slightly outplayed in the defensive passing department, and have allowed 8 passing TD’s this year. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Schaub were both able to throw for 3 scores.
• Believe it or not, the Vikings Outplay numbers on Offense are surprisingly good. Could they still turn this thing around? If they did, it would have to start now. Donovan McNabb is “projected” by or outplay to throw for a large number this week…well have to see about that-lol. He should be able to gain 265 passing yards. Definitely a high risk sleeper
• The Eagles rushing defense is terrible, they are allowing 50.4 more rushing yards per game than what there opponents normally do on average. Without a doubt start Fred Jackson.
• The Giants are under achieving in the rushing department, where the Seahawks are surprisingly playing well defensively. The home game may add to the Giants advantage, but modest expectations for Ahmad Bradshaw.

Point Spread Predictions Using Overall Outplay (A.)

• Bengals +3
• Bills +3
• Broncos +4
• Packers -6
• Lions-6

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Gridiron Experts Free Week 3 Fantasy Pool Win $500!

Here we go again! Gridiron Experts is teaming up with Fanduel and offering our readers another chance to win $500 in a week 3 Free Fantasy Pool! There are no catches, just create a free account (no credit card info required) Click Here To Play

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Enter the $500 Gridiron Experts Freeroll

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Rules and Scoring can be found after the jump but here is some info anyways:

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NFL Pigskin Picks Week 2

Last week we were all shocked with the Buffalo Bills handing it to the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that knocked more than a few out of their survivor or last man standing pools. Last week Gridiron Experts Johnathan Taylor and Taylor DeChant each went 11-5 with their picks straight up, neither had Buffalo, did anyone?….wait Michael Light picked the Bills… maybe his only good pick of the week-lol. 11 wins isn’t too bad considering the high number of spoilers in week one. Kevin Roberts was the winner for week one against the spread with a strong record of 11-5-1. For those who are curious the Cardinals were the tie. Arizona was favored to win by 7…and they did, resulting in a push. Check out this weeks Pigskin Picks for all the upsets and scores

While on the subject of of looking back to last weeks performance, Mike Rodiguez is off to an early lead in our unique article Start’em Sit’em Gauntlet. The concept is very different than most Start and Sit fantasy articles, as we cut the B.S and get right down to the hard decisions of the week. That 2nd or 3rd option or questionable match-up is what you want to know about, and that’s what we hope to deliver. Each week our writers test their skills recommending a line-up of start and sits, with scores to prove who’s on a hot streak for picking gems and who knows when to put a guy on the bench, I suggest you check that article out as well as our Week 2 NFL Picks

Pigskin Picks Week 2 Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born

Fantasy Football Strategies: Handcuff Freedom

Of all the different fantasy football ‘rules’ that the experts pound into peoples’ heads there is one that I have never been able to get on board with.  Nearly every live draft I have been involved in someone always sticks their chest out thinking they just wrecked someone’s draft because of what I usually feel is an inconsequential pick.  I know people are going to destroy me with this draft strategy, but I can’t avoid it.  If you handcuff your first round running back with his back up you do nothing more than handcuff yourself.

Handcuffing of course is using a middle to late round draft pick to select your stud running back’s primary back up.  The theory being that if that stud running back gets hurt, you have someone who will be able to step in and pick up the slack.  In a twelve to sixteen team league handcuffing has some merit, just because by the end of the draft it is easier to find Waldo than a starting runner, but in smaller leagues it just doesn’t make sense.

Expected production is the first reason drafting a handcuff is not a sound strategy.  In most cases there is a huge drop off in talent between someone like Adrian Peterson who most people think is a top three fantasy running back and his back up going into the season Toby Gerhart.  The Stanford product showed he has a future in the National Football League with a solid season backing up ‘All Day’ as a rookie, but it was obvious he is no Peterson.  To expect someone like Gerhart to put up numbers even close to Peterson is not realistic.  Unless the handcuff is also a goal line back, the same can be said for any team that has a stud number one running back.

When putting together my team I want as many real starters as possible – especially at the running back position.  The worst rushing team in the league last year was the Arizona Cardinals.  Statistically their best back was Tim Hightower.  The former Richmond Spider rushed for 736 yards and scored five touchdowns.  Having Hightower on a roster last year was not going to win anyone a championship, but neither would Jason Snelling, Willis McGahee, Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Javon Ringer, Brian Westbrook, Kenneth Darby or Bernard Scott.  Statically none – I repeat NONE of these primary backups to first or second round running backs surpassed Hightower.

Hightower was not always the primary running back for the Cardinals, but week in and week out he had a better chance to see the field than any of the handcuffs.  If I had my choice I would have rather had Hightower clogging up my bench all season than a guy who statistically was inferior and was only going to see spot duty.

Because of the injuries running backs sustain over a season depth at the position is critical.  If a fantasy team’s other starting running back gets hurt having a handcuff to a number one back limits an owners options.  In most cases starting two backs from the same team in the same week is a recipe for disaster.  In a league with twelve roster spots having a handcuff could leave an owner with one or even no option for the duration of the player’s injury – unless they hit the waiver wire.

Speaking of the waiver wire, if that stud running back does go down you are going to have just as much luck finding a replacement in the free agent pool – not to mention your own team if you drafted Hightower or someone like him.  Every year there are running backs that come out of nowhere to put up stats that put most handcuffs to shame.  Especially if an injury comes early in a year an owner might be able to grab that surprise starter.

As your draft drags on into the late rounds, do yourself a favor – avoid the urge to handcuff.  It is a strategy that will not only handcuff your own team, but will free up someone else in your league to take a chance to hit on a guy who will actually see more than spot duty.

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How Fantasy Football Changed the Way I Watch

Even though I was born and raised in Chicago, my allegiance does not lay with the Bears on Sunday afternoons. The genesis for this was born in 1989 when I formed my fantasy league. From there on out I cheered for individual players and not the team that had won the Super Bowl just four years earlier. RIP  Walter Payton.

But that was back when the only games you got to see were the regional broadcasts on your local network affiliate and Monday Night Football. For you kids out there, that meant no Thursday or Sunday night games. That all changed on June 17, 1994 when Direct TV started airing. As fate would have it, the printing company I was working for landed Direct TV as an account. We printed the brochures for this new in-home satellite dish that offered an NFL package to see every game. The brochures were like a “Dead Sea Scrolls” for a football fanatic.

I jumped at the opportunity and literally became the first on my block to have one. I paid $700 back in 1994 for those bragging rights; they are so cheap now, you can get one for free from your local bank if you open a checking account. This was the final nail in the coffin for my attachment to the Bears. Well, that, and Dave Wannstedt helped the cause….

The NFL package has put a whole new spin on Sunday afternoons. I still go through my routine of watching the pre-game shows, checking out Gridiron Experts (shameless plug) and listening to the radio, trying to glean any last minute information that may help me make some lineup decisions. But that’s where the old is separated from the new way of watching. At noon my remote control goes into hyper-drive and does not let up until the final game is over.

I would be remiss if I failed to mention my wife as she helps make this possible. October of this year will be our 23^rd anniversary and she has never complained, not once, about me spending my entire Sunday from 10 AM until 10 PM, doing nothing but concentrating on football. On top of that, she will make or run to get whatever I want for lunch and dinner, so that I don’t miss a play. Come to think of it, she’s really kind of an enabler, isn’t she?

My main complaint with the way the NFL sets up the schedule is the imbalance of early and late games. Week 1 of this season starts out with 8 early and 4 late games, Week 2 is worse with 10 early and 4 late games, and Week 10 is the granddaddy of them all with 11 early and 2 late games. This kind of scheduling really wears out my thumb early in the day, and I then have to play with the pain for the rest of the day. Four months in a lockout and nobody thought about this? Thanks Roger and D Smith!

The good versus the bad. Sure, you get to see all your players making great plays and score TD’s. Who here hasn’t jumped off their couch and high-fived the big screen TV to one of their players? But you also get to see your player drop a sure TD. I still curse Steve Johnson for his drop against Pittsburgh, and Anquan Boldin (I had Joe Flacco) for his last year. Not like the old days when you had to wait for the evening highlights – now it happens, in real time, right in front of you. Ouch!

My worse loss ever came at the hands of WR Michael Jackson. He played for Cleveland and Baltimore during the 90’s and put up some pretty good numbers. During a five year stretch from 1992-1996 he scored 40 TD’s. I had him in 1993 when he scored 8 of those. Every single one of those touchdowns brought a smile to my face. But then he did the unexpected in a game against New Orleans. On an end-around option he threw an interception. In our league an interception is minus 2 points – no matter who throws it. I lost that game by one point. This accounted for the only football injury I ever had – a broken heart.

As painful as that loss was, it makes for a great story almost twenty years moved on. I’ve sulked on many Mondays and Tuesdays, but I’ve probably rejoiced in more. Football will never be the same thanks to fantasy football and the wisdom of those who put together the Direct TV/NFL package.

So now, even a game between Cincinnati and Seattle can be (somewhat) fun and entertaining. What a country!

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Fantasy Football Myths: Two Running Backs in the First 2 Rounds

One of the biggest Fantasy Football Myths is the insistence that in order to win you need to have your top two running backs locked up in the first two rounds.  I have an idea when and why this myth started, but it is no longer relevant in today’s National Football League.  When preparing for your next draft – regardless of your scoring system – you would be wise to get away from the two running back gospel that many publications and fellow league members subscribe to.

The two running back theory has not been relevant for a number of years.  If you add up everyone’s stats from 2000 to 2009 of the top five total touchdown scorers over that time three of them have been wide receivers.  During that same time if you line up the top rushing yardage leaders next to the top receiving yardage leaders you will see again three of the top totals go to receivers.  Last season was a good year for running backs, but still of the top twenty two touchdown scorers, about the length of the first two rounds of most standard drafts, only nine of those guys were running backs.

The NFL has become an offense-first game which has led to big statistical years from a number of offensive players. But it has also become a pass-first league which, of course, hurts runner’s statistics.  When fantasy football first grabbed hold of sports fans, NFL offenses were still balanced between the run and pass.  Last season the Kansas City Chiefs led all offenses with 556 rushing attempts.  Thirteen teams – nearly half the league – had more passing attempts than that in 2010.  Less chances to run the ball leads to – well, I am sure you can figure that part out.

Gone are the days of the every down running back.  More and more teams are doing a running back by committee system which kills fantasy owners.  Only six backs averaged more than twenty carries a game last season.  That list does NOT include such fantasy studs like Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Frank Gore – all of whom were under twenty carries a game.  Even worse for owners of those guys and even for the league’s leading attempts per game leader – Maurice Jones-Drew – is the advent of the goal line back.  MJD only scored five rushing touchdowns last season – killing a number of fantasy football teams.

Top running backs are hard to predict from year to year.  Of the top ten leading rushers from last year only five were in the top ten in 2009.  It was actually worse for receivers, but of the five guys who didn’t come back with a top ten rushing performance in 2010, they didn’t just drop into the top twenty – most times they dropped off the map.  Almost all the receivers who didn’t repeat in the top ten, they were at least in the top twenty-five a year later.  That kind of turnaround makes it tough to hit on both picks in rounds one and two if you are going strictly with running backs.

When picking in the second half of the first round or late in the second round, each year you have a decision to make.  Would you rather take a second level running back – usually there is a big drop off after the top five or six guys – or a top receiver or quarterback?  In my opinion in the first couple of rounds – rounds you HAVE to hit on, I would rather roll the dice on a guy who I know is one of the best receivers or quarterbacks than take a chance on that second level of running back.  If I was picking late in the first round I would be more comfortable with two of the elite guys at receiver and/or quarterback, than two guys who are in the second tier of their position.

Basically in my opinion the best way to go in the first two rounds is to do the opposite of the rest of your league.  If there is a run on running backs, go receiver.  If others in your league don’t subscribe to the two running backs right away theory, go ahead and grab that top five runner late in the first round.  If you have a chance to get someone you consider a star runner, receiver or quarterback in the first two rounds you get him – regardless of the position he plays.

Fantasy Football Myths: Two RB’s in the First 2 Rounds Gridiron Experts Gridiron Experts - Where Fantasy Football Champions Are Born