Money Where Your Mouth Is Playoff Edition
This a column that puts our expertise to the test, as we show a couple of the bets that we are placing on specific games, or prop bets offered by the many sports books and casinos. Of course we are a fantasy football advisory, but we also take pride in our pick’em pool strategies. Our goal is to help you win pools & money, but if you can’t afford to place bets…don’t!
Over “57″ points
This is the playoffs, and regardless of the outcome of the score in the fourth quarter, these teams will be firing. The Saints have not been the type of team to sit on a lead and drain the clock, so expect Drew Brees to continue hitting his team of receivers until the clock reads zero. As for the Cardinals, they have never relied on a running game and love to throw the ball. This game is being played in a dome, and thanks to a heavy passing offensive game plan by both teams the clock will barely move on plays that don’t work. I mean, if you’re talking about a three and out with the Jets or Ravens you get a couple running plays and maybe a short pass, which will chew away at the clock and make guessing the over/under that much harder. But with these teams, and the home run big play potential, it’s either going to be incomplete or a score.
The way I think about over/under scores is based on a break down of points per quarter. 57 points with the spread favoring the Saints by 7 means that Vegas and sportsbooks think this game will be 32-25 (Saints by 7, and adds to 57), which is about an average of 14 points total per quarter. With the explosive play ability of both teams it seems very reasonable that 2 touchdowns could happen in each quarter, throw in the odd turnover or special teams return and 57 points doesn’t seem too high.
Minnesota Vikings -2.5
Brett Favre has more playoff experience in his pinky finger than Tony Romo and half of the Dallas Cowboys do combined. Dallas is the hot team after working their divisional rivals the Eagles in back to back weeks, but we’re starting to think the Cowboys aren’t as great as the Eagles were bad. After the dust has settled in Philly, the team that played in both those final games was made up of a lot of the bench warmers. The Eagles had 4 rookies starting last week, along with a back-up center and a decrepit linebacking core.
This week the Cowboys will face one of the most fierce defensive front four in the NFL. Jared Allen alone is a nightmare, and with a jumpy offensive line in a noisy stadium we see a self destruct button on the big Dallas O-line. Some of our experts have picked the Cowboys as an upset, but as far as safe bets go, you have to like the fact that a field goal at home with a week off is all you’ll need to win this one.
New York Jets+ 7.5
Many sportsbooks are offering 7 points in this game, but we have seen 7.5. That half point is worth more than you think in this tight AFC battle. The Chargers are geared up for an offensive challenge, while the Jets know that if they can keep the game close, this one is very winnable. The x-factor in this game might be the fact that Rex Ryan is very familiar with the Chargers from his time in Baltimore, but the chess match of “I know he knows I know he knows” may result in overthinking everything to a point where a simple game of not turning the ball over and relying on the Jets run game to pick up yards might be good enough. We like the Jets and the points at 7.5
