Brett Favre Can’t Quit Now…Can He?

The NFL season has been over for two weeks, so like any regular fan, I’ve started to wonder: Will Brett Favre be coming back?

Everyone in Minnesota is hanging on every possible detail that the media feeds us about Favre, telling us about his season statement on his official website, fans putting up advertisements on board, begging him to come back….but what Favre ultimately decides is out of our control.

What is in our control, however, is the ability to analyze, and use history as our friend in deciding how he would project if he does in fact return for the 2010 season, and what his absence would mean for the rest of the Minnesota offense if he didn’t.

If Favre does return (and I believe he will), many fantasy analysts will have mixed feelings, simply because Favre duplicating his amazing ration of 33/7 in touchdowns and interceptions, is, well, pretty unlikely (if not impossible).

Favre changed his ways for 16 games, and continued his magical play in a triumphant performance against the Dallas Cowboys, only to see his “vintage” gunslinger style to squeak it’s way back into his arm, costing the Vikings a chance at the Super Bowl.

But if he can’t do what he did in 2009, what can we expect?

He’ll be 41 before the middle of the 2010 season, and after seeing the beating he took against the New Orleans Saints, it’s time to admit that we may soon see a day where Favre isn’t getting up from brutal hit after brutal hit.

However, if he does come back and stays healthy, there really is no reason that he can’t match most of his stats from 2009. In fact, in some respects, he could even improve.

Minnesota’ schedule will undoubtedly be mugh more difficult, but with Adrian Peterson backing him, and Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin improving, 4,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns are very realistic if he lasts another 16 games.

If Favre returns, many fantasy owners will be gun-shy about taking Favre too early, but as far as his value is concerned, based on his talent and surroung weapons, he’s a top-10 fantasy passer.

However, if Favre doesn’t return, what does that hold for the rest of the Minnesota offense?

Firstly, a Favre (official) retirement could urge the Vikings to pursue a trade for Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick, but even if that does happen, there’d be a good chance that the Vikings revert back to a full-blown run-first offense with Adrian Peterson.

With Chester Taylor likely leaving through free agency, Peterson would be leaned on more than every, and would have a good chance to gain career highs in yardage, and would be able to match last season’s touchdown production.

Without Favre, Bernard Berrian’s fantasy value could actually rise, as he could emerge as the deep threat he used to be, as Favre usually relied on Sidney Rice on the outside and in the red-one, and used Percy Harvin a lot out of the slot.

However, a new quarterback may not know how to use Harvin like Favre did, which could lead to a change in the way the passing offense operates. But that doesn’t mean Berrian will be a candidate for more catches than last season, more, just more deep targets and better yardage production.

Percy Harvin will still remain an elite threat out of the slot, and regardless of who is at quarterback, it seems unlikely that the multi-talented Rice slips in production. If anything, his size and play-making ability will help him score more touchdowns.

Visanthe Schiancoe won’t get to 11 touchdowns against if Favre is gone, but he already proved in 2008 that he’s a reliable receiver and a strong red-zone target. He should still hover in the 6-8 range for scores.

Ultimately, all of the passing options will benefit from a second season with Brett Favre under center, and the same goes for Favre.

Keep an eye on mocks throughout the off-season to get a good idea where Favre is being drafted, to get a good idea of his exact value heading into next season. Of course, keep an eye on whether or not he’ll be returning, first.