Brandon Marshall: High Floor Low Ceiling

Ahhh, what could have been. Kyle Orton turned Brandon Lloyd into the number one overall fantasy receiver. Ahead of Andre Johnson. Ahead of Calvin Johnson.  Ahead of Hakeem Nicks, and so on. Brandon Lloyd. He of the previous career high of 733 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Lloyd ended up with 1448 yard and 11 touchdowns in 2010. Had Orton been freed from Tebowmania and taken his talents to South Beach, Marshall would have been a sure-fire top ten WR. Instead, Brandon Marshall is stuck with a quarterback whose mind is rattled due to the crowd chanting Orton’s name at practice, and who really isn’t that good to begin with. Which brings up the question: After the Chad Pennington experiment, wouldn’t you think the Dolphins would lay off Chads for a while? At least a decade I’d say.

And that’s the 3rd worst news Brandon Marshall has heard all summer. Marshall has had, how do I put this, an “eventful” summer. He got stabbed by his wife named Michi during a domestic dispute, whom later got released on bond for $7,500. That literally happened. She stabbed her NFL WR husband, and got released back into society for $7,500 less than 24 hours later. Later in the summer, he was diagnosed with Borderline Personality Disorder, something he’s apparently been dealing with for quite a while. So coming back to a season filled with underthrown Chad Henne passes seems like a walk in the park at this point.

Brandon Marshall’s average draft position (ADP) is right about where it should be, or maybe even a little high. Last year his numbers were 1,014 yards and 3 TDs. Hardly the dominant force we have come to expect him to be (Topping 100 catches, 1100 yards, and 6 TDs the previous three seasons). Guys like Jermichael Finely, Santonio Holmes, DeAngelo Williams, Lloyd and Tony Romo are being drafted after Marshall. When looking at pure upside, those players have slightly to significantly more upside than Marshall. Finely could end up as the #1 TE, Santonio had 3 more touchdowns than Marshall, and he only played 12 games. DeAngelo just signed a huge contract, which won’t lead to less touches, and Romo has looked like the Romo of old in camp. While Brandon Lloyd may have the potential doom of Tebow taking over the starting position as management caves in to the demands of the fans, but it looks like Orton has run away with the job and they could be back to their old shenanigans  a mile or so above sea level.

Meanwhile, Brandon Marshall’s situation has not changed much, if at all. He comes back to the same system, the same quarterback, the same WR help, the same tough division, and now has Reggie Bush (and no, no Kardashian jokes this time), a RB better suited for catching the ball out of the backfield, to take away potential catches that might have headed Marshall’s way. And while his team situation didn’t change, his aforementioned personal life, along with the NFL lockout obviously distracted him from working on his game. Obviously I’m assuming that you can’t work on your game while recovering from a stabbing by your wife, but I have nothing to base that on.

The devil’s advocate would say that he was in a new system last year, he was 5th in the league in targets and that the rapport with a QB only gets stronger. However, the situations of those drafted ahead of him have not changed as well or have even gotten better, which would make it more difficult for him to surpass their productivity. Examples such as Dez Bryant, who will be in his 2nd year and get a healthy Romo back, and Chad Ochocinco, who will move from dreaded Cincinnati to a Tom Brady led offense. Mike Wallace (no sexual assaults/suspensions for Big Ben this year which is a victory in and of itself), DeSean Jackson (training camp with Michael Vick as the starter as opposed to last year when Kevin Kolb was given the reigns) and Mike Williams (another year in the league, while Josh Freeman gets better as well) have better situations than they did last year.  So the same logic applies to others as well, not just to Marshall. Marshall may have a higher floor in terms of his numbers bottoming out (we have a longer history with Marshall while only one or two years with many of those drafted ahead of him), but he also has a lower ceiling just because of the situation he finds himself in every Sunday.

As evidenced by his days in Denver, Brandon Marshall definitely has the potential to be one of the best WRs in the game in Miami. He’s 6’4” 230 lbs, he can go deep or go through the middle, and has a knack for accumulating yards after the catch. However the negatives on Marshall far outweigh his positives for the 2011 season. He’s in a poor system, his QB leaves plenty to be desired, he was 3^rd in the league in drops last season, he had an entire summer full of distractions, he only cracked double-digit fantasy points in standard leagues 3 times all season (and 2 of those were in the playoffs when the team that drafted him as a #1 WR was likely not in the playoffs), and had 5 or fewer fantasy points six times during the season, while also missing 2 games. Fantasy football is all about giving your team the best chance to win, playing the odds, and making logical choices. So while Brandon Marshall’s potential could re-surface again this season, odds and logic say he will have a similar year to last year, with not much variance, while receivers being drafted behind him have a higher ceiling.