2011 Best and Worst Value: Wide Receivers

Since the 2011 fantasy football season ended, you’ve had a brief period to recharge. Yet many of you already want to start planning your 2012 drafts. This column will deliver the jump start that you need to begin that process.

We will examine WRs that provided the best and worst value for their owners during the 2011 fantasy season. This will be determined by combining their numbers, and their average draft position heading into the regular season. We’ll utilize standard scoring of six points per TD, and one point per 10 rushing/receiving yards in a 12-team league.

The Worst Value section will not include receivers that were lost to injury for an extended period of time during the year, and will instead focus strictly on those who performed throughout the majority of the regular season, but did so in a disappointing fashion. Injuries are certainly unfortunate, but they are expected nonetheless. And it is not necessarily useful for you to read a retrospective about first round draft selection Andre Johnson missing nine contests due to his prolonged issues.

BEST VALUE

Victor Cruz

After an inconsequential 2010 rookie season, in which Cruz only appeared in three games, and failed to even record a stat, he was not included on anyone’s roster immediately following last summer’s drafts. But after he exploded for 110 yards in week three, he instantly became a popular addition. And after he added 259 more yards in the next two contests, Cruz vaulted into must start status, and never suffered a letdown with his output. He eventually finished third with 1,536 receiving yards, fifth with 82 receptions, and tied for fifth among all WRs with nine TDs. His big play ability was further displayed by the fact that he delivered a whopping 25 plays in excess of 20 yards, and nine plays of 40+. That placed him second only to Calvin Johnson in both categories. He will be a highly sought commodity in 2012 drafts.

Steve Smith

He had accumulated over 1,000 yards in five different seasons, and averaged eight TDs from 2005-2009, but his production declined significantly in 2010, when he manufactured only 46 catches, 554 yards and two TDs. That kept him on draft boards until the eighth round, when he became the 34^th WR selected. Mario Manningham, Plaxico Burress, and Austin Collie were just some of the notables who were chosen before him. However, Smith provided his best season since 2008 by exploding for 1,394 yards, which was the NFL’s fifth highest total. He scored on seven of his 79 receptions, and he generated 29 plays of 20+ yards. He should return to the top 10 among all WRs in your drafts next summer.

Jordy Nelson

From 2008-2010, Nelson averaged 33 catches, 422 yards, and two TDs. Those modest numbers kept him available until the 10^th round, when he became the 48^th WR chosen. But he achieved must start status by week 4, led the Packers in every major category, and shattered his previous career bests along the way. His 68 receptions included a whopping 15 TDs, which was second among all WRs. That exceptional number also the third highest number of scoring receptions in Green Bay’s franchise history, He was ninth in receiving yards with 1,263, and will be one of the first 12 WRs drafted next summer.

Antonio Brown

He entered his second season with a grand total of 167 yards and 16 receptions on his resume, which is why he remain undrafted until the 12^th round. Not only was he just the 60^th WR to be chosen, but teammate Hines Ward was among those who were chosen earlier, as were Braylon Edwards, Cecil Shorts and Austin Pettis. But he surpassed his career numbers in week 5, and eventually collected 69 receptions, while amassing 1,108 yards.  He exceeded 85 yards in eight games, and accumulated 18 catches of 20+ yards. While owners would have preferred more scoring (two TDs) that will occur next season. Along with his selection much earlier in your  drafts.

Nate Washington

While his 15^th round selection barely registered a ADP of 186, it was also understandable, considering that he averaged just 32 receptions, 683 yards, and four TDs from 2005-2010. But due in great part to exceptional production in his final seven contests, his production increased substantially, and he became one of the most surprising names on the list of 1,000-yard receivers in 2011. He placed him 16^th among all WRs with 1,023 yards, which was 336 yards more than his previous best. He also established new career highs in receptions (74), and TDs (seven). He also accumulated six catches of 40+ yards, which was the NFL’s sixth highest total.

He won’t remain available nearly as long during your next drafts.

WORST VALUE

Mike Williams

For those of you who drafted him, this paragraph is going to hurt. Williams was the 14^th receiver chosen, which not only resulted in him being selected prior to Cruz, Smith, Nelson, and Brown, but also before Wes Welker, Marques Colston, and Brandon Marshall. That was based upon his stellar 2010, in which he tied for fourth among all WRs in TD receptions (11), and led all rookie WRs with 65 receptions, and 964 yards. But his 2011 production was extremely discouraging, as he finished just 46^th overall in receiving yards (771), and scored just once in his first 10 games, before eventually delivering a paltry three TDs for the year. Fantasy owners will exhibit far more restraint in trusting Williams, or any other Buccaneers from their offensive unit next season.

Santonio Holmes

Extremely disappointing output from the Jets’ captain led many owners to regret their decision to select him early in the fifth round, and 19^th among all WRs. He rewarded their faith by merely tying for 62nd in receptions with just 51, and also in receiving yards (654). While he did score eight times, that was the lone category in which his numbers were satisfactory, as his owners were forced to endure the lowest yardage total of Holmes’ six-year career, and his lowest number of receptions since 2006. His eight catches of 20+ yards were the fewest ever, and he failed to even register a reception of 40+, after entering the year averaging 3.4. He will remain available much longer in your next drafts.

Chad Ochocinco

He had exceeded 1,000 receiving yards in seven different seasons, and it was the belief of many, that a career renaissance would take place when Ochocinco joined the Patriots. Not only was he was drafted ahead of every receiver that is discussed in the Best Value section, but A.J. Green was also selected after Ochocinco, who was the 26^th WR chosen. And the reward for fantasy owners who utilized their sixth round pick? 15 receptions for 276 yards, and one TD. And that lone score did not occur until week 15, which was long after owners had correctly given up on him. Selecting him is a mistake that will not be replicated in 2012.

Austin Collie

In his first two seasons, he generated 1,325 yards on 118 receptions, and scored 15 times. That was sufficient reason for fantasy owners to select Collie 28^th among all WRs, ahead of the same illustrious collection as Ochocinco. But Peyton Manning’s absence impacted Collie’s numbers the most among the Colts’ stable of wideouts. He plunged to just 87^th in receiving yards with 514, and was 56^th with 54 receptions. His only TD of the season occurred in week 17, and without the 96 yards that he accumulated in that finale, his woeful production would have been even worse. He will be a late round selection at best next summer.

Mario Manningham

Manningham is the only WR who missed time due to injury that will be included on this list. He was not sidelined for a lengthy period, as he missed two consecutive games twice during the year. However, it was his disappointing production during the 12 game in which he did participate that frustrated his owners. They had originally drafted him 24^th among all wideouts, based in great part upon the nine TDs, 60 receptions, and 944 yards, that he generated in 2010. But he only amassed 39 catches for 523 yards, which ranked him 99^th and 85^th respectively in those categories. Worse, Cruz vaulted over him on the Giants’ depth chart, relegating Manningham to 3 WR. Do not expect to hear his name until very late in your next drafts.