Outplay Formula
Outplay Formula
Outplay is a formula that we use here at Gridiron Experts to help us with everything from picking games to deciding on which fantasy players to start week to week. Those who know of the outplay formula use it as a helpful guide, and many believe that Las Vegas uses it along with a hundred other methods to determine the spread each week.
The idea behind the outplay formula is that a team or player could be performing better or worse than we might think, based on the opponents they’ve gone up against. The math behind the formula is a bit confusing, but basically you take a teams points per game average on offense and defense and compare it to all of its opponents offensive and defensive PPG. Lets say, for example, DEN is averaging 21 PPG on offense, and has played 5 teams that are allowing an average of only 14 PPG on offence. That means that offensively, DEN is “outplaying” their opponents by 7 PPG. The same principle is applied to defensive points allowed per game.
The best example I can give you is from week 7 of the 2007 season: BAL (4-2) at BUF (1-4)
Baltimore was a 3.5 point favorite, and based on their record many believed that 3.5 points was a steal. Looking back, we now know that Buffalo was a team that made a late season run, while Baltimore fell apart by mid-season. If you looked at BAL’s opponents up until this point it was a walk in the park. BAL had 4 wins from ARZ / STL / SF / NYJ. However, BAL had a shoot out with ARZ, and could only put up 9 points against the 49er’s in a 9-7 win. Meanwhile, Buffalo had 4 losses to NE / DAL / PIT / DEN. Even though BUF lost these games, they were able to put up decent outplay numbers both offensively and defensively against these tough opponents. Although the schedule could have been different, it was how well each team had performed that the outplay noticed. BAL was struggling against weak teams, and BUF was playing well against strong teams. Due to our outplay formula, we had Buffalo favored by 2 for this week. The final outcome: BUF 19 BAL 14!
Of course, this formula needs a few weeks to be able to build up fair comparisons. The best time to use this system is between weeks 5 and 10. After week 10, factors such as weather and injuries, along with Sports Books zeroing in, make this system harder to find upsets. Make sure you make our site your go-to source when needing advice this season
