Brain Jerzak: 5 Elite Fantasy Players I’m Avoiding

I know this is the second article Gridiron Experts has had on this topic, but it is a topic that can have huge implications on how well your fantasy team will do each year. Championships are almost always won based on who you don’t pick more than who you do pick. How high you pick a guy is sometimes more important than if you pick him. The last year Priest Holmes was a relevant first round draft pick I had something like the fifth pick in the first round in a ten team league. Secretly I was hoping Holmes would be gone so I didn’t feel obligated to take him. My worst fears came true of course and there he was staring me in the face at pick five. I fought every instinct trying not to take him, but I crumbled. Four rounds into that draft I knew I was screwed. The worst draft in my time playing fantasy football was all set up because I couldn’t avoid the big name at the wrong spot. Here are five players I am avoiding in 2011. Some of the players on this list will go in every draft in the first or second round, but they remind me of my situation with Holmes – big names that have the potential to ruin a season before it even starts.

1. Chad Ochocinco – There are two reasons Ocho is on my list. I will admit the first is personal. I get sick of his constant antics on and off the field. While as far as I know he has not had any trouble with the law, the bottom line is I don’t like the persona he has created. My personal bias aside I still believe he is someone who will take down otherwise solid fantasy teams. Most of you know Ocho is not what he was two or three years ago, and even at his peak he was never a top five wide receiver. The problem with Ocho is because he is so well known off the field and he tends to cram himself down our throats with his antics many owners will substitute style with substance. Just because Chad constantly tells us he is great doesn’t mean he is.

2. Adrian Peterson – I will be dreading this pick if I am picking in the top half of the first round. Peterson could be my Holmes pick this year. Make no mistake, if he is available in the second half of the first round you would have to take him and would be happy to get him, but I don’t see the Viking back putting up top five pick stats in 2011. He is one of the best players in the league, but the offense around him is crumbling. Peterson will still wow everyone with two or three 150 yard games and about the same number of fifty yard plus touchdown runs, but the consistency needed to carry a fantasy team will not be there.

3. Antonio Gates – Injuries scare me a little bit with Gates. Like Peterson I expect Gates to have another solid season, I just don’t trust his numbers to be what we are used to. He will still be playing in one of the top offenses with one of the top quarterbacks in Phillip Rivers, but I can’t get out of my mind the injury problems he had last season. Gates is no spring chicken; constant nagging injuries, the ones that lead to ‘game time decisions’ that kill fantasy owners, were constant last season. It is a trend I think will become more and more evident as his career progresses.

4. Larry Fitzgerald – Like Peterson, Fitz is hands down one of the best players in the NFL, but also like Peterson, he will be handcuffed by a struggling offense. Inconsistent quarterback play and an equally inconsistent running game will limit the Pittsburgh Panther product’s opportunities. More than any position in fantasy football, receiver is most dependent on the rest of his team to make him successful. Kurt Warner’s retirement and the Cardinal organizations inability to find a competent successor is going to keep one of the top talents in the league under wraps for potentially more than one season.

5. Brandon Marshall – There is a theme to these guys – the team around them. Marshall has all the tools to be a top ten receiver in the NFL, but he can’t make a play if there is not anyone good enough to get him the ball. Chad Henne is who he is. On his best day he is an average quarterback that will not raise a wide receivers performance. Unfortunately Marshall has a history of off the field issues that at any time can cause an owner to lose him for a handful of games because of a suspension. Those two factors make me hesitant to pick Marshall as high as his talent should take him.