5 Bold NFL Predictions for 2010 (Part 1)

5 Bold NFL Predictions for 2010 (Part 1)

Gridiron Experts team of writers is making some bold NFL predictions. Some are long shots that you may love, others are realistic guess’s that you’ll hate.

Chris Hall’s 5 Bold Predictions

5.The Texans make the playoffs.

I know, I know, the Texans have a studly fantasy offense with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and crew, but they have never, in their teams history, been to the playoffs. The team is way too good to keep losing close games, and I really think that the Kris Brown/Neil Rackers kicking rivalry will make for a few less blown game enders. There’s no reason that the Texans should’ve lost to the Colts and Titans in weeks 9 and 11.

4. Shonn Greene will go the way of Ronnie Brown.

I absolutely hate foretelling injuries to players, but I don’t think that Shonn Greene’s style of play translates into a full NFL season. He hurt his ribs last offseason and then in the playoffs, and is bound to hurt them again with his bruising style. Rex Ryan is already threatening to load him up with extra padding to prevent rib damage… sounds scary to me.

3. Steven Jackson will leave fantasy owners out of the playoffs.

Last time S-Jax topped 300 rushing attempts (’06-’07), he sputtered out the next season and ran for 1,002 yards and 5 TD’s. Last season he had 324 yards and had to have been demoralized by having 19 linebackers on him every play. I really don’t see the offense getting that much better this year with Sam Bradford, so once again he will be on everyones radar. Expect him to be tired… real tired.

2. Mike Williams catches some TD’s.

With Pete Carroll as coach, Mike Williams will see the football field. and he’ll make some sick catches. He’s in a crowded WR corps, but I think he’ll catch 4-5 TD’s and 500-600 yards. Don’t go out and draft him high, but he may be worth a late round flier.

1. Randy Moss will have a bad year.

He’s 33 and is about as afraid to take a hit as Deion Sanders was in his heyday. He’s going to have to slow down eventually, and I think this will be the year. A few big shots and even he will start questioning his mental toughness.

Jody Smith’s 5 BOLD predictions for 2010

5.The Saints passing game will be even better

No one debates that the New Orleans Saints have an awesome offense. In the 2009 season, the Saints added two elements to their game that led them to the Super Bowl championship. Playing with so many leads in 2009 really allowed the team to emphasize the running game in the second half, and removed pressure for the defense, allowing them to play with less pressure, seeking turnovers. An effective running game, and an aggressive, turn over happy defense.  In 2010, both of these elements are less likely to be as effective, and this will cause the Saints to revert back to their pass heavy offense of 2008

The effective rushing attack of 2009 was attributed to 2 main reasons. First, the commitment to use a three headed attack. Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush all saw significant carries. A fourth back, Lynell  Hamilton, even contributed. Use of this committee kept all three backs fresher, and allowed the Saints to play them part time in more specialized roles. In 2010, Mike Bell is gone to be replaced by Hamilton. With Bell’s short yardage finisher role gone, it remains to be seen how the Saints running game will respond.

Secondly, that opportunistic defense is likely to see a significant drop off. Rarely will the ball bounce the Saints way so often, for a second year in a row. If the running game takes a step back, it will also not allow the team to salt away wins by sitting on the ball in the latter stages of games. That means more defensive snaps, and the increased likelihood of fatigue.

Also to keep in mind is the giant target now centered right on the Saints backs, as the SuperBowl champs. They’ll get the championship schedule, and every teams best effort, every week. These factors could contribute to New Orleans struggling more in 2010, and having to utilize that spectacular passing game even more..and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

4. Chris Johnson will disappoint

Johnson will still be good; he’s too talented not to be. But there are some serious red flags that would prevent me from picking him as a top 3 running back this year. Contract issues could become a problem again. Take a look at the NFL history for running backs following these marks: 1. 2000 yard rushers- every one has seen a steep decline the next year. 2. Backs who lead the league in touches- Huge decline in effectiveness..possibly from over use. 3. Runners who get 375+ carries- That’s a lot of wear and tear. 4. Lack of proven back to share carries- until one of the young guys steps up, we don’t know that the Titans can afford to rest Johnson much.

3. The New York Jets won’t make the playoffs

I think the offense, led by a rookie quarterback, over achieved. I think they will struggle in the passing game more this year.  They also lost a 1,400 yard 14 TD running back and some key veterans on the offensive line. They also will play a tough schedule. Their head coach seems to encourage arrogance and attitude, but this often lead to discipline issues. There are also several veterans, none more important that superstar Darrelle  Revis.

2. Jay Cutler will have 30 Tds, but more turnovers

Cutler lacks no confidence in his own ability. He thinks he can zip the ball in the tightest of places, and make any
throw. He’s almost right too. But that’s a bad combination with a Mike Martz offense. While a Martz passing game means quick passes and reads, it almost always means way more sacks, fumbles and interceptions.

1. The Return of the backs

Too often fantasy football owners are two years behind trends. Everyone now knows that receivers are becoming more and more valuable. The unfortunate trend of the dreaded running back by committee helped usher in the importance of a strong group of pass catchers. The fact is, the passing game has been growing for years. With a new crop of talented, young runners in the NFL, I look for the rushing yards and touchdown numbers to rise significantly, and for the smartest fantasy football owners to be proactive, not reactive.

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