2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers: AFC West

This is the third of our eight part preview where will will look at each of NFL division’s fantasy football values and sleepers. The previous two parts discussed the  NFC East and AFC East. Rather than give you the same sleepers that you can find everywhere else, we will attempt to dig deep and find someone who is likely to go un-drafted in nearly every fantasy football draft that could contribute. All 2011 ADP rankings courtesy or friends at Myfantasyleague.com.

 Denver Broncos

Undervalued:  Willis McGahee (RB)- John Fox’s arrival as the new sheriff in Denver has everyone assuming that he’ll recreate the 2 back attack offense that was so successful during his tenure in Carolina. With that assumption, Knowshon Moreno is getting the hype as a poor man’s DeAngelo Williams. Meanwhile people are forgetting about the Broncos’ acquisition of McGahee.

It’s already been announced that Willis will serve as the club’s preferred short yardage and goal line back; a role that he parlayed into 14 rushing scores two seasons ago while playing second fiddle to Ray Rice. McGahee doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his legs and could easily command a lion’s share of the carries if he can outplay the tentative and disappointing Moreno. Even if he doesn’t, McGahee playing the part of Johnathan Stewart from 2008-2009 doesn’t sound so bad.

Overvalued: Brandon Lloyd (WR)- Lloyd was something of an enigma last season. He was the rare exception of a guy who had done very little throughout his career and had a break out season at the seemingly ancient age of 29. For him to burst onto the scene with his fourth NFL team and lead the league in receiving yardage will go down as one of the more improbable performances in fantasy football history.

With Josh McDaniels and his pass-happy offensive play calling gone, it will be extremely difficult for Lloyd to come close to repeating those numbers again. Along with a more conservative offense, Lloyd will also be held down by his own expectations. He won’t take anyone by surprise this season and will command coverage from his opposition’s top corners. Lloyd is routinely being drafted as a WR2 in 2011 fantasy drafts, but that’s a risky proposition.

Deep Sleeper: Tim Tebow (QB)- It hasn’t been the best offseason for the former Heisman hero.  Since he was McDaniel’s project, the new John Fox led coaching staff isn’t necessarily obligated to give him the chance to develop or to justify his contract. He’s faced a lot of criticism and has even fallen to third on the depth chart.

But there’s still a little reason for optimism. Tebow is a phenomenal athlete and proved at the end of last season that he can make plays. He may have an unorthodox throwing motion, but he’s an excellent runner and good leader. He has just the kind of skill-set to make him a very intriguing option in and around the goal line. With the NFL’s third down QB rules no longer if effect, John Fox could put him in throughout the game, even if only to serve as a wild-cat threat and decoy.

 Oakland Raiders

Undervalued: Michael Bush (RB)- If Darren McFadden can’t stay on the field, somebody has got to make plays for the Silver and Black. Enter Michael Bush, who has gotten more carries and rushed for more yards in each of the last three years. He’s a bruising insider runner who will served as the Raiders goal line back and is an underrated receiver. In the three games that McFadden missed last season, Bush rushed for two 100 yard performances and scored a couple of touchdowns.

Bush signed his franchise tender and will be hoping to make a big impact and earn a huge contract next offseason. Since Darren McFadden is already ailing, there may be an early opportunity for Bush to command a larger share of the carries in 2011. Should McFadden remain injury-prone or falter, Bush has shown he’s more that capable of taking command of the Raiders ground game. He’s routinely being selected as late as the 11th of 12th round in most fantasy leagues.

Overvalued: Darren McFadden (RB)- Run DMC finally lived up to the hype last season, after two years of being a huge NFL and fantasy football bust. He rushed for over 1150 yards with a sparkling 5.2 YPC and even chipped in 47 receptions for another 507 yards.

But, as usual, McFadden battled injuries. He has missed at least three games in every NFL season so far. In 2011, he’s being drafted as a top 15 pick bases on his one break out season. McFadden hasn’t even played during the preseason due to an orbital bone injury. No doubt that opposing defenses will be stacking the line to stop the Raiders 1-2 punch at running back. There’s little in the way of a healthy passing attack to scare defensive coordinators.

Deep Sleeper: Denarius Moore (WR)- With seemingly every Raiders wideout being hobbled by injuries this preseason, this fifth round pick out of Tennessee has made a case for opening the 2011 NFL season as the Raiders second starting receiver. Moore (6’0 194 lbs.) has good size and has caught multiple passes in each of the team’s three preseason tilts. He’s also a capable kick returner. Don’t be surprised if the healthy Moore is vaulted past Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens into the opening day starting lineup when the Raiders open their season in Denver on Monday Night Football.

 San Diego Chargers

Undervalued: Philip Rivers (QB)- You don’t often expect to see a top five quarterback to still be considered underrated, but the fantasy football greatness of Philip Rivers can’t be understated. Last year he lead the NFL in passing yards DESPITE the fact that his top two target missed a combined 17 of 32 games. Rivers threw over 4700 yards and tossed 30 touchdowns throwing passes to legendary receivers like Seyi Ajirotutu, Randy McMichael, Legedu Naanee, Craig Davis and Kelley Washington. What could he have done with a healthy Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson all season?

Rivers’ ADP has him squarely at the end of round two, or top of round 3. If he falls any further than that, he represents a solid value in fantasy football drafts. Quarterback may be one of the deepest positions in fake football and Rivers is about as safe as it gets. He’s never missed a game and has three straight 4000+ yards seasons, with a minimum of 29 touchdowns. If your fantasy league opponents are quick to scoop up Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, don’t hesitate to grab Rivers. He’s a safe bet to better some of their numbers and comes at a discounted price.

Underrated: Mike Tolbert (RB)- Sometimes it’s just hard to peg an overrated player on a team with a high-octane offense like the Chargers. Last year San Diego made a big splash by trading up in the NFL draft to select Ryan Mathews as the heir apparent to the newly departed LaDainian Tomlinson. Little did they know that they already had a more than capable replacement on hand. While Mathews battled the injury bug and learning pains, Mike Tolbert quietly had a very productive season, even showing LT-like tendencies as a goal line beast, with excellent pass catching skills.

Now it’s the 2011 season and little seems to have changed. Mathews showed up out of shape and failed his initial conditioning test in San Diego. Meanwhile Tolbert has quietly been awarded the coveted goal line and short yardage role and has even been pegged as the Chargers’ third down back. At this time it appears that Tolbert will both out score and out catch Mathews while sharing the carries. Ryan Mathews still commands a fourth round pick (ADP of 44.68), while the better fantasy option, Mike Tolbert, is going at an ADP of 102.98, a full five round later.

Deep Sleeper: Vincent Brown (WR)- In the absence of Vincent Jackson for most of last season, none of the other San Diego receivers really stepped up to emerge as a consistent threat. Maybe the third round pick out of San Diego State can make the transition and claim a significant role.

Brown isn’t the typical, huge Norv Turner type of wide out. He’s only listed at 5’11″ and 187 lbs. and could be just the type of over the middle, possession receiver the Chargers have been sorely lacking. Brown missed a lot of training camp, but Norv Turner indicated that the club still has high hopes for Brown.