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Gridiron Experts schedule for the NFL season

Monday: “Monday Morning Quarterback“, where we go over all our predictions and show you what went down as far bets won and lost, and a recap of our calls with Fantasy Forecast.

Tuesday: Early spread, and a look at the lines for the upcoming week.

Wednesday: FANTASY FORECAST, a team by team prediction of all fantasy players including waiver wire recommendations.

Thursday: Gridiron Experts “Picks Of The Week” (our bread and butter). We’ll pick games for the week which include all aspects of betting, including against the spread and over under picks.

Friday: “Money Where Your Mouth Is”, a weekly article where we pick a handful of prop bets. Also “Who Should I Start? - Letters to the Editor” 

Saturday: “Last Minute Changes”- injury factors always make for tough decisions, and Gridiron Experts will help you pick the right fantasy players and sports bets.

 PLEASE Spread the word- Gridiron Experts is a new site that is 100% free and web-traffic is all we’re after. Looking forward to help make you money- Mike Rodriguez

    

A bit of surprise today as SI.com is predicting a rematch of the Eagles and Patriots in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl XLIII, whereas thinks the Dallas Cowboys will be making it to the big game instead of the BOO-Birds, but no real long shots were taken in the AFC. The Patriots, Chargers and Colts all very well could be there, as well as Dallas, Philly, and even the NY Giants. But no one had the Giants on their board last year, or the Steelers a couple of years ago. Which is why many people flock to sportsbooks and casinos to place their Super Bowl long shot bets each year (if you are one of these people, we suggest you read an article called Rookie of the Year Prop Bets before you place that bet).

Here at Gridiron Experts, we would probably would pick the Patriots over the Cowboys, but that’s no fun, so here are a few long shot teams that could be there in February:  

Super Bowl Sleepers?

  Jacksonville is high in our books, as QB David Garrard should be more comfortable at the helm in his second year as the number 1 guy. The loss of DT Marcus Stroud and the long hold out from rookie Derrick Harvey could hurt them, but there are too many great players on this defense for it to really affect them. The addition of WR Jerry Porter might not have a huge fantasy factor, but will add much needed speed to the receiver core. The key….learn how to beat the Colts.

  The Cleveland Browns are being overlooked by many. At 10-6 last year, people looked at their weak schedule and classified the Browns as a one-hit wonder type team. This will not be the case, as a very aggressive off-season and a good draft will increase the Browns chances of being even better. The defense needs to step up, but the word Super Bowl has been whispered around the Cleveland area.

  We also like the Philly Eagles, but it doesn’t all fall on number 5’s shoulders. McNabb, Dawkins, W.Thomas, and Jon Runyan are all getting up there in age, and must stay healthy to have a good season. The hype is on DeSean Jackson, but another target for McNabb would increase their odds.

Not a huge Fantasy Football fan?  Looking to try a different type of football pool? Well, the following are great office pools that are fun to join or start with friends or co-workers.

Name: BANDWAGON POOL

Number of people: 10-16 people

Object of the pool: Each person picks two NFL teams (one AFC and NFC). The person whose 2 teams have the best combined record at the end of the year wins.

 How to play: Draw names from a hat to determine a draft order. There are 2 rounds, the person with the first overall pick gets the last pick in the second round (snake draft). Each person picks a team, but by the 2nd round all of the top teams have been taken. Keeping in mind you need one team from each conference, the object of the game is trying to pick the best sub par team. This is why it’s called “bandwagon” pool.

 Examples: 1st round pick-Colts (AFC), 2nd round pick-Lions (NFC). Last year, the Colts went 13-3 and the Lions went 7-9. Your combined record: 20-12

 Gridiron Expert Hint: Get an NFC team in the first round  

 Name: SURVIVOR POOL (or last man standing pool)

Number of people: unlimited

Object of the pool: Be the last person that hasn’t been eliminated

How to play: Simple, pick 1 team to win each week…if they lose you’re out! You can never pick the same team twice. Some pools allow you to buy back in to spice up the pot, but only up until a certain date (week 5 works best)

Gridiron Expert Hint: Don’t save all the top teams for the end, this is a common mistake. Start with a few safe picks, to see who’s who in the NFL.

According to Adam Schefter of NFL Network Osi Umenyiora has torn his MCL and will miss the entire 2008 season. With Strahan retired and Umenyiora out, the pass rushing Giants that gave Tom Brady nightmares will lose a major element to their defense. In the NFC East a pass rushing defense is a must, expect M.Strahan to feel the heat to come back. The NYG expected Justin Tuck to step in to replace Strahan, but now it seems they are in a bit of a bind with a lack of defensive ends.

Things to keep in mind when drafting your fantasy team in the later rounds of your draft

Ask yourself: will I ever start this guy?

• Meaning if you have 4 WR’s and they’re all covering each others bye weeks, do you really need to draft a 4th string WR from the dolphins or 49er’s? Take this opportunity to get the best player available; this could mean a kicker or defense.
• Do you really need more than 3 QB’s? -NO, if you had C.Palmer and A.Rodgers go down with injuries, odds are you’d try to make a trade before going to your 3rd QB. Why waste another pick on a late QB that will never make your fantasy lineup?

Let the top Defenses go by

• Every year people draft last years top fantasy defenses too high, and every year the top defenses change hands. Remember when Baltimore was the top dog, or what about Tampa Bay? The Vikings with Jared Allen will probably remain in the top 5, but did the Vikings go #1 last year?-NO. There were the Bears, Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers. In fact, I bet the Vikings went near the end of your draft or were a waiver wire pick up. So try to pick a team that people aren’t talking about, or that has a good Kick/Punt return game.

Take good kickers on bad teams

•  No really, think about it: field goals are made when offenses can’t punch it in. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning rarely have problems in the red zone, whereas the Rams, Titans and Texans can move the ball, but tend to sputter out in the red zone.

Test Your NFL Knowledge

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Fantasy Football Rookie Watch

Every year people draft unproven players, hoping they could be the next best thing. Sadly, most people end up kicking themselves for wasting an early pick in fantasy pools on guys that never hit the field. This year should be even worse, as the Vikings Adrian Peterson destroyed fantasy pools last year, and people will look to find a similar type player. Odds are that ADP was a fantasy fluke; I don’t want to take anything away from him, but what he did in his first year was unheard of. Most rookies take time to develop and are big winners in fantasy keeper leagues. Ignorance is bliss when drafting players in 2008; I bet there will be a lot of reaches in pools by people looking to corner the market for the next rookie RB, WR, whatever. The truth is, Adrian Peterson was drafted by the perfect team for him to have the monster season he had. I’m not saying he couldn’t be a star in another city, but the situation couldn’t have been better for him. The Vikings had recently acquired Steve Hutchinson from the Seahawks, which gave them the added boost to an already solid line. The fact that A. Peterson was playing in a dome added to his value, as he has quick moves along with the ability to thrive indoors. There wasn’t much competition ahead of him either, as C. Taylor is an average RB at best. Add the fact that he’s in the NFC north, and I’d say he had a good chance to have a strong season.

So what about these new rookie running backs? There are a lot of them and one or two should have good seasons…the question is, who?

Darren McFadden 6′2″ 210lbs played at Arkansas
NFL Comparison: Steven Jackson
Drafted 1st Rd 4th overall- An inside runner with good size and power. Average hands, decent vision, but never had a full work load in Arkansas. Only averaged 12-15 carries per game. Lacks experience in pass blocking, and has only decent vision to find the holes.
O-Line: Below average.

• Despite Oakland being in the top 10 for average rushing yards per game, this o-line is weak. Robert Gallery has been moved to guard after being a huge bust at tackle, whereas new free agents C Jon Wade and LT K Harris will be asked to come in and try to help with the pass protection.
• Why not draft some more help to ensure your 2 huge paychecks (QB J.Russell and RB D.McFadden) will have solid seasons? Teams live and die with the offensive line.

Projected Carries per Game: 10-12

• Coach Lane Kiffin will feel the heat to put McFadden in early, but remember how long they waited on J.Russell? With running backs M.Bush and J.Fargas not willing to just step aside, watch for a 3 man rotation.

Where people will draft him: 2nd to high 3rd round
Where he should go: 4th round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 900 yards 6 tds

Jonathan Stewart 5′11″ 235lbs played at Oregon
NFL Comparison: Marion Barber
Drafted 1st RD 13th overall- A tank with great speed hits the hole and won’t go down. Has great balance and can push the line for those extra couple of yards. Good blocker with decent hands; only real knock is that no one can get a good look at him in a pro style offense. Played in a hybrid spread type offense in Oregon, and has had toe turf which killed his fantasy hype.
O-Line: Good…could be great

• The Panthers got ripped off in a deal with the Eagles gaining an extra 1st round pick this year to draft OT J.Otah. Carolina has a make or break year, as John Fox is feeling the pressure to take this team back to stardom.
• Jordan Gross and T.Wharton played the whole season, whereas the rest of the line was moved around a lot. With 2nd year Ryan Kalil from USC, and new rookie Jeff Otah, the Panthers could have things in place to form a very powerful line for this season. Add a monster RB, and Stewart could be a goal line stud.

Projected carries per game: 6-7 to start the season, 12-15 to end the season

• The toe injury is doing nothing for his fantasy value, and is even making DeAngelo Williams look better each week. Stewart is a Fantasy Sleeper, who could have great season if you can be a little patient.

Where people will draft him: 3rd-4th round
Where he should go: 3rd round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 750 yards 9 tds

Read more…

Free Fantasy Draft Board!! What are you planning on using for your football pool? A magazine that was published a month ago, or are you paying some site for their info…why? Download and print a free draft board right now. No catches, no survey, we don’t want your email address, just your respect. Spread the word! CLICK ON FREE FANTASY DRAFT BOARDS  at the top of the page!

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  Kevin Curtis has a sports hernia which could keep him out of the line-up for at least 5-6 weeks. Bleeding Green Nation, an Eagles blog, predicts he won’t return until week 8. Make adjustments to your fantasy boards, as he is the number 1 WR in Philly. Speaking of Fantasy Boards, Gridiron Experts will have FREE Fantasy Boards for you to download tomorrow evening!

 The Eagles had Reggie Brown leave the last pre-season game with a hamstring injury, and now Kevin Curtis is out. DeSean Jackson is looking better and better every day now, as the Birds are running out of WR options. Joe Horn is out there, and A.Boldin wants a trade…expect the Philadelphia media to start it’s bitching soon, as McNabb becomes the fan favorite for once. In McNabb’s request for weapons, the management looked the other way. Now, a couple of injuries expose how bad the depth at the WR position really is, and the blame will fall on management instead of on #5. Despite Kevin Curtis’s injury D.McNabb is still geared up and hoping for a MVP season

These are the new odds offered by sportsbooks on NFL teams making the playoffs. For those of you that don’t understand these numbers the math is easy, just imagine you bet $100 on any of these teams. The number next to the team would be the winnings you would make (roughly). With teams that have a minus number next to them, do the math the opposite way. For example: you’d win $200 if you bet $100 on the NY Jets and they made the playoffs, whereas you’d have to PUT UP $1200 to win $100 if the Patriots made the playoffs. A few teams stand out here and have good value on a return. I wouldn’t wager $100 on Houston, but to me they’re the best odds offered along with the Titans and 49er’s.

 Odds to Make the NFL Playoffs

New England Patriots    -1200  
New York Jets               200
Buffalo Bills                   300
Miami Dolphins               700
Baltimore Ravens            350
Cincinnati Bengals          175
Pittsburgh Steelers        -140
Cleveland Browns           110
Indianapolis Colts          -350
Tennessee Titans           300
Jacksonville Jaguars       -115
Houston Texans             500
San Diego Chargers        -450
Denver Broncos             160
Kansas City Chiefs          350
Oakland Raiders             400
Dallas Cowboys            -190
Philadelphia Eagles         160
New York Giants            135
Washington Redskins     300
Chicago Bears              175
Green Bay Packers         110
Minnesota Vikings         -105
Detroit Lions                 250
New Orleans Saints      -150
Carolina Panthers          135
Atlanta Falcons             700
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   Ev
Seattle Seahawks         -250
San Francisco 49ers      400
Arizona Cardinals         135
St Louis Rams             250

 7 Ways to Screw Up Your Fantasy Draft

7: Forget about bye weeks
There’s nothing worse than having 2 QB’s on the same bye week. After you draft your players, write down the week that team is off on a bye. When it’s time to draft your back-up players, look at the match-ups. 

6: Drink your face off
Everybody loves draft day, but if your head’s not in it you’ll end up with a handful of bums and kickers.

5: Draft your favorite players
People tend to pick players based on teams they love and avoid players they hate. Unless you like wasting money, try to draft the best team and cheer for your favorite players on the side. The Cowboys and Patriots are great fantasy teams despite all the haters.

4: Underestimate the time of a draft
Some people try to squeeze a fantasy draft in between work or things to do. If you’re rushed you’ll make poor decisions.

3. Obsess over Running Backs
We all know how important a stud RB is, but Quarterbacks and Receivers are just as important. Try to take the best available player; you don’t need 3-4 superstar RB’s with Rex Grossman and two 49er WR’s.

2. Over think your picks
Some people study their brains out trying to find sleepers, and end up overlooking quality fantasy players. Keep your sleepers locked up until the last half of the draft. Don’t be the guy who reaches on a rookie too early or a player on a bad team.

1. Bring your Girlfriend or Wife to your draft
Circle the day on the calendar and tell her you’ll hang out later. There’s nothing worse than getting looks from across the room while trying to make fantasy decisions. We all know the draft is key to a great fantasy season, so leave the drama at home. Of course, if your girlfriend or wife is in the pool then consider yourself the luckiest guy alive.

 Good Luck Fantasy Football Freaks!! Check back in a couple days for FREE DRAFT BOARDS!!