A bit of surprise today as SI.com is predicting a rematch of the Eagles and Patriots in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl XLIII, whereas thinks the Dallas Cowboys will be making it to the big game instead of the BOO-Birds, but no real long shots were taken in the AFC. The Patriots, Chargers and Colts all very well could be there, as well as Dallas, Philly, and even the NY Giants. But no one had the Giants on their board last year, or the Steelers a couple of years ago. Which is why many people flock to sportsbooks and casinos to place their Super Bowl long shot bets each year (if you are one of these people, we suggest you read an article called Rookie of the Year Prop Bets before you place that bet).

Here at Gridiron Experts, we would probably would pick the Patriots over the Cowboys, but that’s no fun, so here are a few long shot teams that could be there in February:  

Super Bowl Sleepers?

  Jacksonville is high in our books, as QB David Garrard should be more comfortable at the helm in his second year as the number 1 guy. The loss of DT Marcus Stroud and the long hold out from rookie Derrick Harvey could hurt them, but there are too many great players on this defense for it to really affect them. The addition of WR Jerry Porter might not have a huge fantasy factor, but will add much needed speed to the receiver core. The key….learn how to beat the Colts.

  The Cleveland Browns are being overlooked by many. At 10-6 last year, people looked at their weak schedule and classified the Browns as a one-hit wonder type team. This will not be the case, as a very aggressive off-season and a good draft will increase the Browns chances of being even better. The defense needs to step up, but the word Super Bowl has been whispered around the Cleveland area.

  We also like the Philly Eagles, but it doesn’t all fall on number 5’s shoulders. McNabb, Dawkins, W.Thomas, and Jon Runyan are all getting up there in age, and must stay healthy to have a good season. The hype is on DeSean Jackson, but another target for McNabb would increase their odds.

According to Adam Schefter of NFL Network Osi Umenyiora has torn his MCL and will miss the entire 2008 season. With Strahan retired and Umenyiora out, the pass rushing Giants that gave Tom Brady nightmares will lose a major element to their defense. In the NFC East a pass rushing defense is a must, expect M.Strahan to feel the heat to come back. The NYG expected Justin Tuck to step in to replace Strahan, but now it seems they are in a bit of a bind with a lack of defensive ends.

Fantasy Football Rookie Watch

Every year people draft unproven players, hoping they could be the next best thing. Sadly, most people end up kicking themselves for wasting an early pick in fantasy pools on guys that never hit the field. This year should be even worse, as the Vikings Adrian Peterson destroyed fantasy pools last year, and people will look to find a similar type player. Odds are that ADP was a fantasy fluke; I don’t want to take anything away from him, but what he did in his first year was unheard of. Most rookies take time to develop and are big winners in fantasy keeper leagues. Ignorance is bliss when drafting players in 2008; I bet there will be a lot of reaches in pools by people looking to corner the market for the next rookie RB, WR, whatever. The truth is, Adrian Peterson was drafted by the perfect team for him to have the monster season he had. I’m not saying he couldn’t be a star in another city, but the situation couldn’t have been better for him. The Vikings had recently acquired Steve Hutchinson from the Seahawks, which gave them the added boost to an already solid line. The fact that A. Peterson was playing in a dome added to his value, as he has quick moves along with the ability to thrive indoors. There wasn’t much competition ahead of him either, as C. Taylor is an average RB at best. Add the fact that he’s in the NFC north, and I’d say he had a good chance to have a strong season.

So what about these new rookie running backs? There are a lot of them and one or two should have good seasons…the question is, who?

Darren McFadden 6′2″ 210lbs played at Arkansas
NFL Comparison: Steven Jackson
Drafted 1st Rd 4th overall- An inside runner with good size and power. Average hands, decent vision, but never had a full work load in Arkansas. Only averaged 12-15 carries per game. Lacks experience in pass blocking, and has only decent vision to find the holes.
O-Line: Below average.

• Despite Oakland being in the top 10 for average rushing yards per game, this o-line is weak. Robert Gallery has been moved to guard after being a huge bust at tackle, whereas new free agents C Jon Wade and LT K Harris will be asked to come in and try to help with the pass protection.
• Why not draft some more help to ensure your 2 huge paychecks (QB J.Russell and RB D.McFadden) will have solid seasons? Teams live and die with the offensive line.

Projected Carries per Game: 10-12

• Coach Lane Kiffin will feel the heat to put McFadden in early, but remember how long they waited on J.Russell? With running backs M.Bush and J.Fargas not willing to just step aside, watch for a 3 man rotation.

Where people will draft him: 2nd to high 3rd round
Where he should go: 4th round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 900 yards 6 tds

Jonathan Stewart 5′11″ 235lbs played at Oregon
NFL Comparison: Marion Barber
Drafted 1st RD 13th overall- A tank with great speed hits the hole and won’t go down. Has great balance and can push the line for those extra couple of yards. Good blocker with decent hands; only real knock is that no one can get a good look at him in a pro style offense. Played in a hybrid spread type offense in Oregon, and has had toe turf which killed his fantasy hype.
O-Line: Good…could be great

• The Panthers got ripped off in a deal with the Eagles gaining an extra 1st round pick this year to draft OT J.Otah. Carolina has a make or break year, as John Fox is feeling the pressure to take this team back to stardom.
• Jordan Gross and T.Wharton played the whole season, whereas the rest of the line was moved around a lot. With 2nd year Ryan Kalil from USC, and new rookie Jeff Otah, the Panthers could have things in place to form a very powerful line for this season. Add a monster RB, and Stewart could be a goal line stud.

Projected carries per game: 6-7 to start the season, 12-15 to end the season

• The toe injury is doing nothing for his fantasy value, and is even making DeAngelo Williams look better each week. Stewart is a Fantasy Sleeper, who could have great season if you can be a little patient.

Where people will draft him: 3rd-4th round
Where he should go: 3rd round
Gridiron Experts Projected Stats: 750 yards 9 tds