Gridiron Experts Early 30 Fantasy Forecast

Here at Grid-X, we not only give out our rankings, we also show you how we reached our decisions on how to grade each player. The following is a brief description on each of the categories we used to rank these players on a scale of 0-3:

1. O-Line: No Rb can have a big season with a bad o-line
2. Carries: Does anyone steal carries or is it a one man show
3. Goal Line: TD’s on watching from the sidelines
4. Receiving Yards: Multi threat or one dimensional
5. Game Breaker: History of big fantasy games.
6. Injuries: Any nagging injuries or history of getting hurt
7. X-Factor: Division / Strength of Schedule / Contract year  

Tier 2 Read more…

If you have been to Las Vegas, Atlantic City, or even Reno, you know that these adult playgrounds the size of small cities have one goal: get your money! Everything from the floor layout to where the pool is built in a casino have been thought out in great detail to keep you happy and gambling away. A Sportsbook is the same way, you may get a girly calendar in the mail, or a football magazine published by the company with sports tips. But overall, whether you’re drinking and placing bets in a casino or sitting on your couch in your bathrobe you’re still being targeted.

Of course I have a Sportsbook, and have used it for many years now, but I won’t mention which site to stay neutral and not seem like a commercial. My advice before making a deposit into an online account is to “do your research”. You don’t want to just blindly dump money into a Sportsbook without taking a look into withdrawal fees, deposit bonuses (and fees), or comparing odds with other sites. The biggest lure most Sportsbooks offer is bonuses. This is not all it’s cracked up to be. Most of the time, the site will give you 5 to 6 times your deposit in cash just for making a deposit, but the catch is that they won’t let you withdraw that money until you turn that bonus money into 10 times what they gave you.

Gridiron Experts Top 5 Tips when dealing with Sportsbooks:

1. Do your Research

• Compare all factors before picking a site; some sites recommend having more than one Sportsbook to get the best odds, although that means more deposits and more gimmicks.
• Check out these sites for more advice on picking an online gambling site. www.sportsgamblingreview.com or www.sportsbookcheck.com

2. Don’t buy into the bonuses and deals, if it’s too good to be true it probably is

• If you can, try to avoid the 1-800 deposit number; these power sellers are geared to get you to dump even more than you had planned on depositing.

3. Keep a weekly allowance Read more…

Gridiron Experts NFL 2008 Win Totals (Part 1: NFC East & West)

There’s no offseason in the NFL for Coaches, and especially General Managers. Every GM/Coach takes a hard look at each game from the previous year, and cuts up plays to examine what worked and what needs improvement. While fans want to see those big name players change jersey colors, the smartest moves are sometimes for the players that don’t get all the press. The following is Gridiron Experts quick fix for each team in the NFL. We also included the lines from Las Vegas’ future 2008 regular season wins (which are bets you can place on each team on whether a team will win more or less than the projected win total).

NFC EAST 

Vegas Line: Giants projected to win 9 games (+100 Over/ -120 Under)

Last year: 10-6

07 Problems: Well, they won the Super Bowl, so it’s hard to find problems with that. The offseason had them picked at by other teams; some solid players were stolen through free agency. LB K. Mitchell & G. Wilson will be missed, but can be somewhat replaced. TE J. Shockey was another big loss, but it could be a blessing in disguise.

Offseason Acquisitions: SS K. Phillips (draft), WR M. Manningham (draft)

Forecast:  The NYG are in the toughest division in the NFC, and arguably the league. Winning the Division is the key to any kind of Super Bowl repeat. Look for Defensive Coordinator S. Spagnuolo to continue his aggressive attack at opponents, while E. Manning can finally do his thing with the media off his back (at least for a while). The line is 9 games, which is disrespectful for a team that ran the table in the playoffs last year. I think the Over at +100 is a great bet.

Big wins in 07: Super Bowl win 17-14!

Prediction: 10 wins

Vegas Line: Cowboys projected to win 10.5 games (-115 Over/ -105 Under)

Last year: 13-3

07 Problems: Statistically, the Cowboys were tops in most categories. The only stat that was somewhat average was running yards per game (ranked 17th overall with 101). Despite being the team that most people love to hate, you have to admire what owner Jerry Jones has built. He replaced Julius Jones with Felix Jones, which now lets M. Barber have full control.  The defense has always been stong, and with Pacman they could be even better. The only real problem I see with the Cowboys is that they come across as very cocky, which always seems to bite them in the ass in the playoffs. If DAL could take a page out of the Patriots playbook, this team could be our next dynasty in the making. There is always the chance that T.O, Pacman-(don’t call me that), Roy Williams or any of these “Big Stars” could flip out and cause a media distraction. Dallas did more than most expected in 07, but I think the Cowboys are a high risk team.

Key Losses: LB A. Ayodele, CB J. Reeves, RB J. Jones

Offseason Acquisitions: RB F. Jones (draft), CB A. Jones (trade)

Forecast: J. Jones didn’t get a lot of credit in Dallas, with M. Barber getting most of the goal line carries and sometimes stealing the spotlight. Now Barber will have his work cut out for him in a starting role. The NFC East is tough, but I think Dallas can repeat another strong season if the team can stay healthy and focused. 10.5 wins at -115 is a bargain.

Big wins in 07: Beating NYG twice (45-35 & 31-20), also GB 37-27

Prediction: 12 wins

Read more…

The most important thing to consider when joining pick ‘em type pools is to weigh the value of the payouts. Learn the payouts before joining, and always find out if the pub/office takes a cut of the money for running the pool. If you joined a pool with 400 people that each paid $100, you would have a $40,000 pot to divide into the 17 NFL weekly payouts, and (usually) top 5 best overall record prizes at the end of the year.  With a $40,000 pot for prizes, you’d figure the pub would take $5000 to run it, maybe more.
 Strategies:

Go for the Gold
  If the weekly payout is only 10 times your investment, I suggest playing very tight and plan for being in the top overall rankings, assuming that it’s not a winner takes all pool. In the example above, the pub/office is taking a $5000 cut to run the pool, and weekly payouts are $1000. Sounds great, but with 400 people in the pool and a huge pot remaining for the top overall prizes, you can play it safe and let everyone else kill each other and wreck their overall records. The goal is to get 70-75% of your picks right throughout the year. Of course your goal is to win every week, but by counting the amount of games you need to get right to reach 70-75% for each week, it then allows you to take the odd long shot to win the week. This strategy does work, although you need to ignore the overall pool standings until the last 3-4 weeks. Most people see the pool standings and think they need to take long shots to gain ground to get to number 1.
 
Roll the Dice
  In this scenario, we have the same type of pool but with a 15 times payout towards weekly winners. This is a totally different situation; that’s an extra $8500 going towards weekly winners rather than to end of the year payouts. I know it’s only 5 times more than the first example, but playing it safe wouldn’t make sense here. Your goal here would be to try to win each and every week. Although when trying to win each week, you have to have a more balanced attack when taking more long shots and not going too crazy. In every NFL week there are maybe 1-2 real upsets at best; when a team is a 3 point favorite and you call the underdog, that’s not much of an upset. Almost every week there are 1-2 games that even the best sports bettor would not have predicted.

Jeremy Shockey was traded from the New York Giants to the New Orleans Saints for second and fifth round draft picks, the former in 2009 the latter in 2010.  The four time pro-bowler and dynamic offensive threat will join one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, which could return the mercurial tight end to superstar status.

 What this means

The Saints finally have the playmaking tight end they covet.  The TE is a key piece to the Westcoast offense, and is an element that was lacking in the Saints attack.  The TE helps to open up the running game and adds the middle of the field to all ranges of the passing attack.  This trade should allow New Orleans to dictate more of what they choose on offense.

Coach Payton helped Shockey become Rookie of the Year and have one of his most productive statistical seasons when he was the Offensive Coordinator with the Giants. This reunion should yield more of the same, and has the potential to return Shockey to the elite level of NFL TE’s in both real and fantasy football.  You may also remember that Drew Brees used to play with a guy named Antonio Gates, and he had no trouble feeding him the ball over and over again.  Good quarterbacks love using the TE as their check-down or outlet receiver, and a guy like Shockey poses match-up problems for linebackers, so I expect “Brees to Shockey” to be something we hear a whole lot of this year.

Shockey needs to re-prove himself as a star in the league; he was royally pissed when the Giants went on to win the Super Bowl without him, and now the chip on his shoulder should be bigger than ever.  I think Shockey will fit in well in the Saints locker room, where the chain of command is well established. Yet as always, he is a wildcard with a big ego who could go sideways quickly.

 The Terms

The details of this deal are a little strange, as the pick the Saints are supposed to send to the Giants is also subject to conditions from the Jonathon Vilma trade with the NY Jets.  If Vilma participates in 85% of the defensive snaps or signs a contract extension in New Orleans then the Jets get that second round pick. In this case, the Giants would then get the Saints first round pick and nothing else.

Read more…

San Diego           

• Antoine Cason is a great pick; he is a playmaker, and for SD to have him as their third corner is incredible.  Cason has been known for making some amazing pick sixes. He will add to an already talented SD secondary, and might give the Chargers the best CB trio in the league, at least until Pacman Jones is reinstated or if Lito Sheppard isn’t traded. 
• I watched a lot of LSU games this past year, and every time I came away impressed with Jacob Hester.  He is the kind of determined, throwback football player that everyone wants on their team.  Hester won’t break a big 50+ yard run, but he almost never loses yards, and his heroics on third and forth down are the stuff of legend.  I like Hester to take over for Lorenzo Neal. While there will be a bit of a drop off in blocking skills, there will also be an increase in the amount of versatility at the FB/HB spot on the SD offense. 
• This is a loaded San Diego team; they don’t have a lot of roster holes to fill or spots to give up, and this is pretty much their division to lose.  I am looking to see if the SD defense can be truly dominant with all this talent, and if the offense can make some progress now that Gates will be healthy and Chambers has a full off-season to learn the system. 

Oakland                     

• Darren (D-Mac, Run DMC) McFadden looks like a clone of Adrian Peterson, with less aggression and power, but with a touch more speed.  This is a sexy pick, and it has lots of potential to help Jamarcus Russell and Oakland’s sad offense make some strides.  We all know Oakland has a crap offensive line, but this could be a classic example of a great RB making a bad O-line look good.  D-Mac is a stud, and they will find ways to get him the ball, receiving or running. However, his potential is tied to whether Jamarcus steps up and becomes an NFL level QB. 
• Oakland has lots of running backs, but you need more than one in this NFL.  If the Raiders can get Run DMC and another RB on the field at the same time, then you’ll be seeing some fresh looks for Oakland, and maybe they won’t get trounced so consistently.
• Aside from McFadden nothing else stands out in this draft class, which leads us to wonder how’s a RB going to help your terrible run defense.  Read more…

Jonathan Stewart was drafted by the Carolina Panthers in this years 2008 draft. Stewart went 13th overall, and looks to have huge fantasy value this season. The former Oregon Duck is built like a bus at 5-11 235 lb’s. Stewart has great hands and can pick up the block in pass protection, which is key in Carolina’s offense. The “get the ball in Steve Smith’s hands” play sometimes takes a second or two for him to shake off his double coverage. I can see J.Stewart being a goal line favorite and even a full time starter by wk 6. Some are worried about the toe surgery he had done in March, while others know Stewart has been quick in recovery from other minor injuries. With J. Otah (the other 1st rounder) added to the O-line, Carolina looks to surprise many in the 2008 season. RB D. Williams is the starter as of now, but keep an eye on Stewart through the preseason. 

Oregon Duck Stats (keep in mind the Ducks play 12 gm’s a year):

Our 4 experts cut up a few topics and make bold predictions for the up coming season

Who will be the 2008 offensive rookie of the year?

Who will be the 2008 defensive rookie of the year?

Who will win “come-back” player of the year for the 2008 season?

click to read more Read more…

Gridiron Experts Early 30 Fantasy Forecast

Here at Grid-X, we not only give out our rankings, we also show you how we reached our decisions on how to grade each player. The following is a brief description on each of the categories we used to rank these players on a scale of 0-3:

1. Weapons: Surrounding players to help put up big numbers
2. System: A good understanding of the offensive system being run
3. O-Line: How much time does the quarterback have, and history of giving up sacks
4. Game Breaker: History of big fantasy games, or asked to just manage the game
5. Injuries: Any nagging injuries or history of getting hurt
6. X-Factor: Division / Strength of Schedule / Contract year for any of his receivers

(tier1)

Read more…

These odds are from http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/?s=692 There you can see that most sportsbooks are waiting for the season to start…I don’t blame them. But it is interesting to see what they’re thinking with 6 weeks to go.

TEAMS                       ODDS            OVER/UNDER