A Dose of Fantasy Football Reality

All I want you to do is pause. Take a deep breath. I know it’s Week 1, the most exciting time of the year for millions of NFL fans and fantasy football owners. You’re on top of the world; your domination of your co-workers’ fantasy league (or whomever you play with) starts this week. But this is a cautionary tale. Fantasy football can be frustrating, and I want to help you cope before something inevitably goes wrong. It always does, I promise.

If you’ve never played fantasy football before, let me impart some wisdom to you: the running back you drafted in the first round isn’t going to rush for 100 yards and a touchdown every week. Insane, right? You may have wasted 45% of your salary cap on Adrian Peterson this season, but that doesn’t mean he will perform up to your standards.

Worse. The team you’re playing this week has Cedric Benson, who just served a twenty-day jail sentence (well, kind of) and looks to run at about the same speed as Peyton Manning. Then you wake up Tuesday morning and you’ve had a nightmare. Benson has outscored Peterson by 10 points. If this hasn’t happened to you, it will.

Elite players struggle. It’s that simple. However, there’s good news. When elite players struggle, it usually isn’t as severe as when mediocre players struggle. Plus, the struggles don’t come nearly as often. It’s just more frustrating to watch the players you bet your entire season on fail to meet expectations while your scrubs are carrying the team. What you have to remember is that it’s a long season, and an elite player will prove his value over time. It’s easy to overthink fantasy football—that’s what I’m here for—but the key is having patience while making enough moves to give your team a chance.

I say all this because I’m about to be impatient for you. I’m going to give you 10 elite players (in no particular order) who I think may struggle in Week 1. Does that I mean you should sit these players? Absolutely not. For most owners, any of the players below are the best option you have at that position on your roster; however, a handful of elite players won’t live up to their draft positions in Week 1 and throughout the season, so I’m here to temper expectations.

The fantasy reality is this: if you could draft the top-ranked player at each starting position, you’d probably still lose your league. There are no guarantees in fantasy football. Every year there are the breakout players—Peyton Hillis, Michael Vick, Darren McFadden, and Brandon Lloyd. The unpredictability is what makes the fantasy game so challenging and addicting.

You can get all your tier 2 Start’s and Sit’s in  Gridiron Experts weekly feature Start’em  Sit’em Gauntlet (Every Wednesday Night). But, this isn’t directly related to that article. I’m not recommending you sit any of these players; I’m just trying to prepare you for the ugly truth of fantasy football. It isn’t all touchdowns and rainbows. Finally, I tried to avoid taking the easy way out and giving you a list of injured stars—these are all players expected to play and score big in Week 1.)

1. Ray Rice, RB, Bal (vs. Pit) – In two games against Pittsburgh last season, Rice struggled mightily, managing only 52 yards on 17 carries. The Baltimore running back added a measly three receptions for 27 yards while being held out of the end zone. I love Rice as an elite option for the season, especially now that Willis McGahee will be stealing touchdowns from Knowshon Moreno in Denver and the Ravens recently signed five-time Pro Bowl center Andre Gurode. In fact, I think Rice is a safe bet to score double-digit touchdowns this year. However, the Steelers usually keep Rice in check, preferring to make Joe Flacco beat them down the field, and I don’t that defensive strategy will change in 2011. Prediction: 40 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards, and 0 TD.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jac (vs. Ten) – The Jacksonville offense has looked pathetic in the preseason. So pathetic, in fact, that starting quarterback David Garrard was cut on Tuesday. As much as Jaguar fans would like to believe it, MJD isn’t the answer to all the team’s ails. Coming off a knee surgery in January, Jones-Drew finally made it back onto the field for the first time in his team’s final preseason game on Thursday against the St. Louis Rams—he managed 14 yards on five carries. The sixth-year pro should get plenty of chances (even more after capable backup running back Rashad Jennings was lost for the season), but the Jaguar offensive line has been inconsistent at best, unable to protect any Jaguar quarterback and unable to open up running lanes. Tennessee’s defense isn’t as stiff as it has been in years past, but I expect the Titans to concentrate on slowing MJD and forcing the Jacksonville offensive line to pass block. Also, look for Jones-Drew’s workload to be reduced this season because of health concerns, if Jacksonville can find anyone else to hand the ball off to. Prediction: 65 total yards and 0 TD.

3. Michael Vick, QB, Phi (@ StL) – Vick optimizes the risk-versus-reward nature of fantasy football. When he’s on, there isn’t another player in the NFL who can match his production—he’s literally a one-man scoring machine. The problem is that I still don’t trust his instincts as a pure passer. He obviously made strides last season, but he’s seemingly slipped back into some of his bad habits this preseason—locking on receivers pre-snap, dropping his eyes too quickly when he senses a rush, and getting happy feet in the pocket. Even in conventional one-quarterback leagues, some have been making Vick the first player off the board. To be worth the price, he has to be better than solid. But I don’t expect Vick and his receivers to be on the same page early in the season, especially with DeSean’s contract situation, Maclin’s mysterious illness, and Steve Smith’s injury. I like St. Louis as a team to show significant progress this season, and it should have enough pieces to keep Vick in check for Week 1. Prediction: 220 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 1 TDs, and 2 INTs.

4. Jay Cutler, QB, Chi (vs. Atl) – He’s probably the only human alive that will ever challenge Brett Favre’s interception record. We all know the allure of a Mike Martz offense; however, Cutler actually threw for 400 fewer yards and 4 fewer touchdowns in his first year with Martz than the previous year. Chicago still hasn’t solved its problem at wide receiver (Roy Williams isn’t the answer, I promise), relying on a group of misfits. Without a true go-to receiver, I expect Cutler to continue to force throws into double coverages. Atlanta has some holes in its secondary, but should be able to rush Cutler enough and force him into some bad decisions. This is one of those picks that could likely blow up in my face, but I just don’t trust Cutler’s decision-making skills. He proves on a yearly basis that he’d rather throw a pick than throw the ball away. Prediction: 250 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs.

5. Miles Austin, WR, Dal (@ NYJ) – Fellow writer Ahmed Helmy wrote a great piece recently on Miles Austin being undervalued as a fantasy receiver, and I completely agree. I think this is the year that Tony Romo and Austin have their biggest seasons and actually get the Cowboys back to the playoffs. However, the party will have to start after Dallas visits the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. I’m not so sure the Jets have the best defense in the NFL—its defensive line is probably below average. But it’s hard to throw against a healthy Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie no matter who is playing on the defensive line. I still expect Romo to get his, spreading the ball out to Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, and Felix Jones; I just expect Austin to find less success on the outside. Prediction: 45 yards, 0 TDs.

6. Roddy White, WR, Atl (@ Chi) – Once again, Helmy has already mentioned Roddy White and likes him to find room against Chicago’s secondary—I could get open against that secondary. But this has less to do with White and more to do with his quarterback’s struggles on the road. Matt Ryan just hasn’t proven to this point in his career that he can carry the Falcons on the road. Can he do enough to win? Without a doubt, but that isn’t the same thing as carrying your fantasy team to a win. Obviously Ryan can struggle and hook up with White for one long touchdown and salvage Roddy’s day. However, the Bears made a significant upgrade in its secondary by getting former Patriots safety Brandon Meriweather. Granted, it isn’t a lock that Meriweather will play against Atlanta or have an impact in the snaps he plays. This pick is more of a gut feeling than anything I can prove by stats. Prediction: 65 yards, 0 TDs.

7. Josh Freeman, QB, TB (vs. Det) – Every fantasy analyst and writer is seemingly high on Freeman this year. If we were talking about wins and losses, I would agree: Freeman has all the intangibles. However, I’m not sure he’s ready to be a fantasy football star yet, especially after playing one of the easiest schedules in league history last season. I think Freeman’s numbers and the team’s win total will suffer with a tougher schedule this season. Plus, and I’d never thought I’d live to say this, I think Detroit will be a vastly improved defense this season. With Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc on the inside, I expect to see Detroit linebackers getting plenty of free runs at opposing quarterbacks this season. Ask Tom Brady about playing the Lions this preseason: this isn’t the same team that couldn’t even win a single game a few years ago. These Lions are for real. It helps that the game is in Tampa Bay or I’d be even lower on Freeman. I like Blount to have the best day for the home team’s offense. Prediction: 200 yards passing, 22 rushing, 1 TD, 2 INT.

8. Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ (vs. Dal) – Last year I chastised anyone wasting a mid-round draft pick on LaDainian Tomlinson. He was washed up, over the hill, through the woods, and halfway to grandma’s house. However, fantasy football is relative. This year, though I like Shonn Greene, I think people may be underestimating the value of LT. I’m not suggesting that LT will find the fountain of youth—that ain’t happening—but I do think he will continue to get a significant amount of the work, especially early in the season. Dallas has revamped its defense and scheme with Rob Ryan, and I expect the Cowboys to stuff the Jets’ running game and force Mark Sanchez to beat them with his arm. Prediction: 60 yards, 0 TDs.

9. Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind (@Hou) – Maybe this one is too easy. Let’s face it: It will take a miracle for Peyton Manning to play. Obviously this negatively affects Wayne’s value. With that being said, Kerry Collins is a capable backup—he can even be more than a game manager. The problem is I’m not sure the Colts will open up the offense in the season-opener. I expect them to try to control the ball with the running game, hope to contain the Houston offense, and pray for a chance to steal the game in the fourth quarter. But there’s more at work here. Wayne has publicly lobbied for Curtis Painter to be the starter. Sure, Wayne and Collins are professionals and will forget anything said before gameday, but I just don’t think they have the on-the-field chemistry necessary for Wayne to have a big day. Prediction: 45 yards, 0 TDs.

10. Jamaal Charles, RB, KC (vs. Buf) – I have serious questions about Kansas City’s plans for its speedy back. Everyone has seemingly forgotten about Thomas Jones, who is likely to vulture the majority of short-yardage touchdowns. Also, Dexter McCluster is a Charles clone, who proved during the preseason that he deserves a handful of touches every game out of the backfield as well. For Charles to have success, he almost has to break a long scoring run. The Chiefs don’t have to fear the Buffalo defense, but I still expect Charles to get off to a slow start in Week 1. Prediction: 70 total yards, 0 TDs.